War in South China Sea?

[Wilber]

True, these defence entities do make civilian goods, but most of them started out as some weapon or military RnD project before becoming something a civilian can use. A good example on that is the Hummer. Useful on the battlefield, not very useful as a grocery getter.

You can't separate the two. Technologies go both ways. The Hummer itself may not be any good as a grocery getter but it contains components and technologies that have both civil and military uses.

[bush_cheney2004]

You can't separate the two. Technologies go both ways. The Hummer itself may not be any good as a grocery getter but it contains components and technologies that have both civil and military uses.

Agreed...only the Hummer H1 is traceable to AM General's original M998 Humvee. Hummer H2 and H3 came from the same GM civilian light trucks sold as SUVs.

[Guest Derek L]

Agreed...only the Hummer H1 is traceable to AM General's original M998 Humvee. Hummer H2 and H3 came from the same GM civilian light trucks sold as SUVs.

Yup, same power train as my wife’s Caddy

[Guest Derek L]

http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Walkers_World_War_in_South_China_Sea_999.html

I honestly forgot which thread topic it was in, but I remember having a discussion a few weeks back on the topic of the next world war, with the Chinese being a key participant:

They’re referring to the Spratly Islands for those not in the know.........

More racial harmony from the Middle Kingdom…….interestingly enough, both nations of “monkeys” have been recently conducting naval exercises with the United States.

Ahhh……The Americans won’t intervene……..Tora, Tora, Tora

Ahh…..India, one of the other Asian nuclear powers……..whom don’t really get along with their nuclear neighbour……Pakistan, the very nation that has had it’s intelligence agency involved in attacks on US forces in Afghanistan

Last time the US defence budget didn’t allow for a strengthen of forces on Guam, the world was just coming out of the great depression………….Like I said to Jacee(?) don’t waste your time protesting the “current system”, and don’t worry about the global economy and an increase on social spending to get us out of the financial mess………We’ll revert back to that age old trick of sorting out our problems……….in the end, what’s left of Red China, can use their current holdings of US T-bills to keep warm, for that is all they’ll be worth.......

*Bump*

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324789504578383820145232386.html

BEIJING—Vietnam accused a Chinese vessel of chasing and firing at a Vietnamese fishing boat in disputed waters on March 20, in the latest flare-up over the strategically important South China Sea.

Hanoi didn't say whether the Chinese vessel was a government craft; a state-run Vietnamese newspaper quoted the captain and owner of the fishing boat as saying it bore the markings of the China Marine Surveillance agency.

Chinese ships have clashed repeatedly with vessels from neighboring countries in the past two years as China has grown more assertive in its territorial claims. But they don't usually open fire—so this incident, if confirmed, could mark an escalation of tensions.

Last month, Japanese officials said a Chinese naval ship in January had locked weapons-guiding radar onto a ship and a helicopter belonging to Japan's Self Defense Forces near islands in the East China Sea that are claimed by both Beijing and Tokyo. Beijing denied doing so.

The mounting tension between China and its neighbors, several of which are U.S. allies or have close defense ties with the U.S., was a key factor in the U.S. decision to make a strategic "pivot" toward Asia—which China has denounced as a ploy to contain its rising power.

And like I said in the OP nearly a year and a half ago, the next World War will eventually spark from a little speck of land few have ever heard about:

Sansha is made up of the Spratly Islands.................Remember those names.........

[Guest Derek L]

And the Japanese Ambassador:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-18/china-s-military-buildup-worrisome-japan-s-u-s-ambassador-says.html

Speaking at a Bloomberg Government breakfast in Washington yesterday, Japanese Ambassador to the U.S. Kenichiro Sasae described China’s increasingly frequent forays to lodge territorial claims in the resource-rich East and South China Seas as “harassing” and “provocative.”

coupled with:

China has become increasingly assertive in the South China Sea, encountering opposition from Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam, among other nations, as it tries to lock up resources to meet its demands as the world’s largest energy consumer.

U.S. officials have said they are seeking to ensure freedom of navigation and defuse territorial conflicts in the South China Sea, through which half of the world’s commercial cargo moves.

To paraphrase MLW member Eyeball, the animals are starting to circle the watering hole…….

[Guest Derek L]

And it seems, both my concerns and those of the Americans (I’ll concede probably more the Americans than I) has finally been sighted by the Canadian media:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/08/11/navy-should-shift-warships-to-west-coast-in-response-to-chinas-aggressive-military-buildup-defence-analysts-say/

Canada should get out of is cold war mindset and move the majority of its warships from Halifax to the B.C. coast in response to the Chinese navy’s aggressive military buildup, say defence analysts.

The U.S. government has already announced its plan to put 60 per cent of its naval assets on its west coast by 2020 as part of its plan to make the 21st century “America’s Pacific Century” — a term coined by former U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton.

The Canadian military’s tiny fleet of warships is split up on a 60-40 basis favouring the Atlantic coast, with seven frigates and two destroyers in Halifax compared to five frigates and one destroyer in Esquimalt.

A Canadian Pacific pivot if you will.......

The U.S., Japan and Australia have all taken steps to expand their military muscle in response to the Chinese military’s naval buildup. Fears of a potential Pacific conflict have been exacerbated by China’s territorial disputes with the Philippines and Japan.

All subjects I've been highlighting over the last few years of posting here......

The Halifax Chronicle-Herald noted last week that the Halifax mayor and provincial politicians kicked up a huge fuss four years ago when the navy contemplated, but later abandoned, the notion of moving a single frigate to Esquimalt.

But like all things relating to the Canadian Forces, politics comes first

But retired commodore Eric Lerhe, who also favours more forces in the Pacific, told the Halifax Chronicle-Herald last week that Canada has only put up “token” resources in the Pacific.

And that's being kind prior to ~1987, though in the context of the Cold War, some degree is understandable.

My one concern would be if CFB Esquimalt (and the greater Victoria region itself) could handle a ~20% expansion……….you throw the prospect of MARPAC getting some of the AOPS and the base will be rather tight without an expansion, in perhaps Colwood across the harbour….

Edited August 12, 2013 by Derek L

[DogOnPorch]

I see India has launched the hull of their new Vikrant class jump carrier. It has yet to be fitted-out and is missing the upper superstructure.

[Guest Derek L]

I see India has launched the hull of their new Vikrant class jump carrier. It has yet to be fitted-out and is missing the upper superstructure.

Yet it could still beat into service their Russian retread

[Guest Derek L]

I see India has launched the hull of their new Vikrant class jump carrier. It has yet to be fitted-out and is missing the upper superstructure.

And thought I'd add:

In Japan:

In OZ:

In South Korea:

In India (as mentioned by DP) :

And

And of course, in China:

All of the above ships are +/- 5 years of equal production and eventual regular deployment…….But there’s no Pacific naval build-up……..right

[Derek 2.0]

The legend of Zheng He aside, a first for the Chinese:

Five Chinese navy ships are currently operating in the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska, Pentagon officials said Wednesday, marking the first time the U.S. military has seen them in the area.

The officials have been tracking the movements in recent days of three Chinese combat ships, a replenishment vessel and an amphibious landing ship after observing them moving toward the Aleutian Islands, which are split between U.S. and Russian control.

As the article goes on to explain, there is nothing overtly threatening about this deployment, the Soviets did the like for decades, but it is a political demonstration by the Chinese that they too have Arctic interests......

[Rue]

China has announced a reduction of 300,000 soldiers in the months to come. Its expenditures on its military are outstripping its economic capacity to fund them.

[Derek 2.0]

China has announced a reduction of 300,000 soldiers in the months to come. Its expenditures on its military are outstripping its economic capacity to fund them.

On the surface the figure seems quite large, in reality its a realization that China doesn't require keeping dozens of regular force infantry divisions of peasant soldiers armed with much the same equipment used during the Korean war.......doing so allows the Chinese to modernize the remainder of their military with more modern equipment, likewise putting 300000 Chinese males into more productive avenues of the economy......as for their older weapons and equipment, it will simply be covered in Cosmoline and put in storage until/if its needed.....

[Rue]

One could argue I suppose Derek the foot soldier is obsolete. I doubt though those 300,000 will make a smooth transition myself. Could cause some internal dissension. Being a soldier used to be a big deal. Today they seem to be messing with the sanctity of the People's Army. Its a far cry from being one of Mao's warriors.

They certainly have built up their naval capacity and supposedly air capacity. I would love your comment on both given your knowledge. Lol hopefully you have forgiven my F35 disdain lol. Are they a naval power to reckon with or not? Are their jets more than the crap I say they are?

[Derek 2.0]

One could argue I suppose Derek the foot soldier is obsolete. I doubt though those 300,000 will make a smooth transition myself. Could cause some internal dissension. Being a soldier used to be a big deal. Today they seem to be messing with the sanctity of the People's Army. Its a far cry from being one of Mao's warriors.

Infantry today is as relevant as it was thousands of years ago, that has not changed the slightest. The difference, as how it applies to the Chinese in this example is that the Chinese have employed much the same tactics and doctrine as the Soviets (and in turn countless Arab armies) for decades......namely massive artillery bombardment followed by continual waves of infantry supported by tanks, aircraft etc to achieve a given objective.

Now with the Chinese, as opposed to the Soviets, due to the sheer size of their army (including reserves) measured in the millions, has prevented the Chinese from being able to mechanize their entire force through the use of Soviet pattern IFVs and APCs, instead still having divisions of infantry, that at best, would arrive at the battlefield in trucks, trains and even bicycles....but more likely by foot.

The Chinese realize that in the advent of a war with an even near peer, such an enormous surplus of classic foot infantry would likely have little utility, and the resources would be better spent elsewhere......

They certainly have built up their naval capacity and supposedly air capacity. I would love your comment on both given your knowledge. Lol hopefully you have forgiven my F35 disdain lol. Are they a naval power to reckon with or not? Are their jets more than the crap I say they are?

Their air force, at best, could be considered a less experienced Soviet air force of the 80s, their navy isn't much better, but lacking a viable ASW capability, something that even the Soviets had to an extent, their utility against a modern navy with submarines is one of crab food..........

That being said, outside of Japan (sans nuclear weapons) and the Indians, they are the regional superpower with aims to expand their sphere of influence.

[Army Guy]

Being Mechanized and being Motorized are two separate beasts.....Just the shear fire power alone is worth the investment of going mech...., not to mention the speed in which you can move, plus the additional firepower can allow you to cover more ground with effective fire......In most cases i'd say on a two to one basis, if not more....meaning one mech inf bn could cover the same space of 2 or more motorized or light inf bns with ease....

Of course a mech Bn tends to attract armour.....but todays IFV and additional wpns it remains a concern but not a major problem.....so it does make great sense both on the money side and manpower side.....300,000 less guys to drive, feed, and wait for them to catch up to the battle.....

Thanks derek for that poke for the lone inf guy....not very often does an naval aviator stick up for the little green guy covered in mud....

I think that china does pose a major threat, as seen by shift in NATO and even US defense priorities , shifts in theaters from atlantic to pacific....while they may not be at the same equipment level....they are a threat.

[Derek 2.0]

Being Mechanized and being Motorized are two separate beasts.....Just the shear fire power alone is worth the investment of going mech...., not to mention the speed in which you can move, plus the additional firepower can allow you to cover more ground with effective fire......In most cases i'd say on a two to one basis, if not more....meaning one mech inf bn could cover the same space of 2 or more motorized or light inf bns with ease....

That would appear a truism for centuries, where the advantages of mobility outweigh the negatives.

Of course a mech Bn tends to attract armour.....but todays IFV and additional wpns it remains a concern but not a major problem.....so it does make great sense both on the money side and manpower side.....300,000 less guys to drive, feed, and wait for them to catch up to the battle.....

Of course said mech-infantry would also have their own armour in tow.

Thanks derek for that poke for the lone inf guy....not very often does an naval aviator stick up for the little green guy covered in mud....

Not a problem, I learned very quickly at BMOQ, playing infantry, that its better to get a ride than walk to work

I think that china does pose a major threat, as seen by shift in NATO and even US defense priorities , shifts in theaters from atlantic to pacific....while they may not be at the same equipment level....they are a threat.

Without a doubt, and the very nature of the Pacific Rim, would/will necessitate a divergence in how we would address such a potential threat.

[argonautluk]

A seminar on the South China Sea Arbitration and International Rule of Law was held on July 3 in the Hague, the location of the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s arbitral tribunal...

http://www.theasian.asia/archives/95364

[bjre]

Everything is created by US.

US is the reason why world is not peace and Africa is poor:

The United States dominates the globe militarily. Washington possesses the most powerful armed forces, accounts for roughly 40 percent of the globe’s military outlays, and is allied with every major industrialized state save China and Russia.

Yet the bipartisan hawks who dominate U.S. foreign policy see threats at every turn. For some, the People’s Republic of China is replacing the Soviet Union as America’s chief adversary. They view another military buildup as the only answer.

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/china-really-dangerous-16347

The CIA Director John Brennan has said.

...

"I met with the heads of the services, intelligence services, from the ASEAN countries, as well as with my Chinese counterpart, as a way to maintain the dialogue and to let them know that the US treats this region of the world very seriously, and we have very important national-security interests that we're not going step away from.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/there-is-a-reason-for-us-to-pay-attention-to-what-china-do-john-brennan/articleshow/52982956.cms

It becomes tiresome to continue unravelling stories of the US meddling in regions far away from its shores, trying to weaken other countries in order to maintain its global dominance. The more one delves into the reality of the conflict in the South China Sea, it becomes clear that the US actually thinks it has a right to manipulate regional dynamics in China’s backyard so as to encircle it as a rising superpower.

…

In a very real sense the US has been the invisible hand behind the rising tension, conducting joint naval exercises with claimants, orchestrating confrontational incidents with Chinese naval vessels, and even giving partial recognition to the Philippines’ unilateral renaming of the South China Sea to the West Philippines Sea. The US has encouraged claimants to step up their efforts to take over the islands, engaging in joint exercises with the Philippines on “retaking islands” and “oil rig defence”.

…

if China was sending its warships off the coast of Cuba twice a quarter, and mobilising the countries of the Caribbean to stake their claim to islands under US sovereignty, World War III would probably have started already.

http://www.iol.co.za/the-star/islands-that-could-lead-to-war-2024227

[TimG]

US is the reason why world is not peace and Africa is poor:

ROTFL. China deliberately provokes its weaker neighbors over and over again for no purpose other than to placate the legions of brainwashed Chinese nationalists who have been fed lies about China and its relationship with the rest of world. Lies that cannot be corrected via a free press or the Internet because the government does everything it can to stop its citizens from learning about the world outside China'a borders.

Yet despite this insanity a Chinese government apologist has the nerve to claim that the US is all to blame.

A little hint: the Chinese government has no clear claim over the South China sea, Taiwan or the Senkakus.

As long as China threatens violence to unilaterally impose its claims on its neighbors it is a warmongering state.

Obviously, this does not mean that US actions are always benign. What it does means is your narrative that the US is sole reason for conflict in the world today is nonsense.

Edited July 6, 2016 by TimG

[Wilber]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/12/philippines-wins-south-china-sea-case-against-china

It was a ridiculous claim anyway. The whole South China Sea based on disputed claims over a few rocks. Cheeky.

Edited July 12, 2016 by Wilber

[bjre]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/12/philippines-wins-south-china-sea-case-against-china

It was a ridiculous claim anyway. The whole South China Sea based on disputed claims over a few rocks. Cheeky.

That depend on who did it.

If did by US or a government that US can control, or US can replace with US controllable leader, no matter how ridiculous, you will not see it in news, or you will see explains to make the ridiculous reasonable.

If did by a government that US can not replace its government for US super-rich people to profit, no matter how reasonable, you will see only the ridiculous or be made ridiculous part in news.

[Wilber]

That depend on who did it.

If did by US or a government that US can control, or US can replace with US controllable leader, no matter how ridiculous, you will not see it in news, or you will see explains to make the ridiculous reasonable.

If did by a government that US can not replace its government for US super-rich people to profit, no matter how reasonable, you will see only the ridiculous or be made ridiculous part in news.

bjre

It was a cynical attempt to claim a whole sea based on questionable territorial claims to a few rocks in the ocean. It was BS from the beginning and the court just confirmed it. China will not accept any decision that does not go in its favour, That shows how little respect it has for international law.

Edited July 13, 2016 by Wilber

[Derek 2.0]

...... what we’re seeing today in terms of growing financial troubles, increased nationalism, division of class and an ever increasing demand on natural resources is putting us today in the very same climate as to what could be found in the 1930s…….My advice, buy defence stocks…

And it appears the Chinese, after losing face in the Hague, are attempting to "probe" the defenses (and response) of nations in the region:

“The Air Force is organizing normalized South China Sea combat patrols, practicing tactics ... increasing response capabilities to all kinds of security threats and safeguarding national sovereignty, security and maritime interests,” Senior Col. Shen Jinke of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force told Xinhua, Reuters reports.

And to the North, a poke in the eye of the Japanese:

Further north, another confrontation is brewing. On Saturday, Japan officially protested after six Chinese coast guard vessels (at least three were armed with gun batteries, Japan said) approached disputed East China Sea islands along with a fleet of hundreds of Chinese fishing boats.

Interesting times.....

[herples]

Specifically it was the Permanent Court of Arbitration that issued the ruling. Even then it wasn't a valid arbitration since Taiwan and Vietnam were not invited as well.

[TimG]

Specifically it was the Permanent Court of Arbitration that issued the ruling. Even then it wasn't a valid arbitration since Taiwan and Vietnam were not invited as well.

The presence of Taiwan or Vietnam is irrelevant to the ruling which basically rejected all of China's claims (i.e. the fact that Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims is immaterial). In practice China will ignore the ruling but it does establish that that China is willing to ignore the treaties it signs whenever they are inconvenient. This should be a warning for any country that thinks they can sign any treaty with China because there is zero chance that China will honour the terms. Edited August 7, 2016 by TimG