Canada's Involvement in Syria

[M.Dancer]

Libya is not the only source of oil. And if that is the crux of this whole issue, then we can dispense with the 'humanitarian aid' bullshit.

It isn't about oil, so yes we can dispense with that bullshit.

Also a humanitarian thing to do would be to take in those refugees. That is not happening either. So again, we can dispense with that bullshit.

Ah....how many times can you be incorrect in one day?

[GostHacked]

It isn't about oil, so yes we can dispense with that bullshit.

How is it not about oil? I've also pointed out that it will be a new UN/NATO foothold in Africa.

Ah....how many times can you be incorrect in one day?

Thing is, I am wrong sometimes, and at least do admit I am wrong sometimes. I don't get that from many other posters. But I am not wrong here. Time will prove me right.

[M.Dancer]

How is it not about oil? I've also pointed out that it will be a new UN/NATO foothold in Africa.

A UN/NATO foothold?

Could you go on a bit and try to explain if you can, what tta is supposed to mean.

Thing is, I am wrong sometimes, and at least do admit I am wrong sometimes. I don't get that from many other posters. But I am not wrong here. Time will prove me right.

The times you are right are less than what one would expect in a random selection of multiple choice answers.

[ToadBrother]

How is it not about oil?

Because about the only place really negatively effected is Italy.

I've also pointed out that it will be a new UN/NATO foothold in Africa.

And what reason would UN/NATO want a foothold in Africa via Libya? Looked on a map lately?

Thing is, I am wrong sometimes, and at least do admit I am wrong sometimes. I don't get that from many other posters. But I am not wrong here. Time will prove me right.

Uh huh...

[Oleg Bach]

My view is all these wars in the Middle-East is about OIL and making unfriendly countries into friendly countries.

Saudi Arabia is a "friendly" coutry in regards to us....they are our oil trading buddies and we love them.....and when we are not looking they dump a few million bucks into financing some terrorists to knock down a couple of towers in New York. Then they privately have a gleeful chuckle and smile in our face as we continue to trade with them....when it comes to large sums of money generated by oil - there is no such thing as friendship, Just mutual sinister co-operation.

[Guest Derek L]

Because about the only place really negatively effected is Italy.

That’s not really true, as I’ve outlined above, most of Western Europe purchases Libyan Oil, and over 90% of Libyan Oil is extracted and processed by Western European oil companies…….if that supply is interrupted, it will increase demand on other sources and in turn, prices……something that would be both good and bad for us, but potentially devastating for the EURO zone countries.

Though the topic is on Syria, one could ask why UN/NATO action has not been taken in any of the other Arab countries……..The leader(s) of those that produce oil have not threatened nationalisation/contracts and the rest don’t produce any significant amount of it…….

[Guest Derek L]

Refuted? no....non sequitors are not refutations.

speaking of irrelevant tangents

How much oil does Bosnia, Croatia and Kosovo have?

Say, that was a heck of a dodge…….

As for oil in the FRY…..I’d guess little to none…….but many land boarder crossings

[Guest Derek L]

Thing is, I am wrong sometimes, and at least do admit I am wrong sometimes. I don't get that from many other posters. But I am not wrong here. Time will prove me right.

I don’t think you need to wait on time for that……the mens rea is already avaliabale in commodity investor reports……You and I might disagree on the justification of “going to war for oil”, but the reason is blatantly obvious….and I welcome it.

[ToadBrother]

That’s not really true, as I’ve outlined above, most of Western Europe purchases Libyan Oil,

I'm sure they do, but the point is that Libyan oil makes up such a small percentage for most nations, particularly the US, that there's no point in going to war over it when there are so much easier places to get the stuff from.

and over 90% of Libyan Oil is extracted and processed by Western European oil companies…….if that supply is interrupted, it will increase demand on other sources and in turn, prices……something that would be both good and bad for us, but potentially devastating for the EURO zone countries.

Libya produces such a small percentage of oil I doubt very many refineries are going to be disadvantaged. You seem to think, for some strange reason, that because a country has some oil, that therefore, regardless of actual output, it becomes incredibly important.

Though the topic is on Syria, one could ask why UN/NATO action has not been taken in any of the other Arab countries……..The leader(s) of those that produce oil have not threatened nationalisation/contracts and the rest don’t produce any significant amount of it…….

Action has not been taken against Syria because it's an entirely different ballgame. It is a populated country with a very organized and potent central government, no organized resistance so far as anyone can tell, and a strong ally in Iran, which means an attack upon it may be the prelude to taking on Iran, something that no one appears all that keen to do.

You're still just grasping at straws.

[Guest Derek L]

I'm sure they do, but the point is that Libyan oil makes up such a small percentage for most nations, particularly the US, that there's no point in going to war over it when there are so much easier places to get the stuff from.

Libya produces such a small percentage of oil I doubt very many refineries are going to be disadvantaged. You seem to think, for some strange reason, that because a country has some oil, that therefore, regardless of actual output, it becomes incredibly important.

Libyan oil resources and production under Gaddiff’s leaderships have been under-utilised for decades, after 9/11 and his giving up of his WMDs and denouncement of terrorism, relations with the west thawed, which in-turn brought greater Western investment into Libya.

Sure, Libyan oil production has been “low” under his regime (Still 2nd or 3rd in Africa), but the culprit in that is more the efficiency of his system rather than lack of resources……..Why else would Western Companies invest so heavily, with goals of doubling or tripling production before this decade is finished?

Action has not been taken against Syria because it's an entirely different ballgame. It is a populated country with a very organized and potent central government, no organized resistance so far as anyone can tell, and a strong ally in Iran, which means an attack upon it may be the prelude to taking on Iran, something that no one appears all that keen to do.

Did you foresee our involvement in Libya 6-8 months ago?

You're still just grasping at straws.

I’m not grasping at anything, other than facts that have been in the public record for decades……

If I’m wrong, then why do you feel we’re there?

[ToadBrother]

Libyan oil resources and production under Gaddiff’s leaderships have been under-utilised for decades, after 9/11 and his giving up of his WMDs and denouncement of terrorism, relations with the west thawed, which in-turn brought greater Western investment into Libya.

Sure, Libyan oil production has been “low” under his regime (Still 2nd or 3rd in Africa), but the culprit in that is more the efficiency of his system rather than lack of resources……..Why else would Western Companies invest so heavily, with goals of doubling or tripling production before this decade is finished?

Do you have a citation for proven reserves in Libya?

If I’m wrong, then why do you feel we’re there?

Stop a million Libyan refugees from flooding into Europe and neighboring North African countries. Self-serving, yes, but not for the reason you seem to think.

Edited June 25, 2011 by ToadBrother

[Guest Derek L]

Do you have a citation for proven reserves in Libya?

In the links above, plus planned outputs, holdings and contract lengths.....

Stop a million Libyan refugees from flooding into Europe and neighboring North African countries. Self-serving, yes, but not for the reason you seem to think.

So why not Syria, they're flooding Turkish boarder crossing as we speak? Are Libyan refugees worse than Syrian?

It's easier to stop human traffic at sea then across a land boarder.

[ToadBrother]

In the links above, plus planned outputs, holdings and contract lengths.....

I'll look it up myself when I've got time. My understanding is that Libya could never supply more than a fraction of Europe's oil.

So why not Syria, they're flooding Turkish boarder crossing as we speak? Are Libyan refugees worse than Syrian?

It's easier to stop human traffic at sea then across a land boarder.

How many times do I have to repeat this. Syria's government wields considerably more control than Gaddafi's. Syrian is not a loose-knit cobbled-together state like Libya. It is a well-organized regime with considerable resources in place for both military and police operations. And what's more, picking a fight with Syria likely means picking a fight with Iran. Do you think that's a good idea?

Do what you can where you can, and don't fight battles you can't win, or possibly don't want to win.

[Guest Derek L]

I'll look it up myself when I've got time. My understanding is that Libya could never supply more than a fraction of Europe's oil.

Fair enough, If you read into more of the history of Libya’s (lack there of) oil industry, you’ll see why the floodgates for the West opened 6-7 years ago.

How many times do I have to repeat this. Syria's government wields considerably more control than Gaddafi's. Syrian is not a loose-knit cobbled-together state like Libya. It is a well-organized regime with considerable resources in place for both military and police operations. And what's more, picking a fight with Syria likely means picking a fight with Iran. Do you think that's a good idea?

Do what you can where you can, and don't fight battles you can't win, or possibly don't want to win.

Turkey and Iran have positive relations.....The Iranians didn’t outsource their uranium enrichment program to Syria last year..

Syria’s military (like most Arab states) would have been impressive in the early 80s……The Iraqi air defence network was defeated in a mater of weeks, twenty years ago…….for the most part, the Syrian’s are still using a similar network as the Iraqi’s, twenty years later………

What should give you/the West pause when handling relations with Iran?

What could they possibly do that would be damaging to Western Interests?

[Guest Derek L]

Here's a quick link for you Toad, Wikipedia, so take it for what it's worth:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves

They put them in 9th spot, which if true, I'm suprised, I thought they'd be behind Nigeria and possibly Algeria....still, more than Mexico, Texas, Alaska, and Norway.......and the UK (including the Falklands)

Why would Western Europe be interested in a large producer (that’s not Russian) on their backdoor?

[RNG]

Here's a quick link for you Toad, Wikipedia, so take it for what it's worth:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves

They put them in 9th spot, which if true, I'm suprised, I thought they'd be behind Nigeria and possibly Algeria....still, more than Mexico, Texas, Alaska, and Norway.......and the UK (including the Falklands)

Why would Western Europe be interested in a large producer (that’s not Russian) on their backdoor?

To lazy to research it right now, but reserves and potential for production in the short to medium term are two very different things.

[RNG]

Actually, Wiki is your friend. Libya is 17th in oil production, producing 2.1% of the world's oil. Small potatoes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production

[Guest Derek L]

Actually, Wiki is your friend. Libya is 17th in oil production, producing 2.1% of the world's oil. Small potatoes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production

There is a difference between oil production and oil reserves……..We have the second largest known oil reserves, but a lot our oil is processed in the States……..Until Western investment, Libya only had two semi modern oil refineries……..Western investment plans to double and possibly triple Libya’s production in this decade, which will put them near even with us……hardly small potatoes.

[RNG]

+/-2% is small potatoes. I'm talking production now, not potential. And given how fucked up they are, it will be ages before they could reach full potential. Look at Iraq. They are not producing 2/3rds of the oil they were before Desert Storm to this day.

[Guest Derek L]

+/-2% is small potatoes. I'm talking production now, not potential. And given how fucked up they are, it will be ages before they could reach full potential. Look at Iraq. They are not producing 2/3rds of the oil they were before Desert Storm to this day.

Fair enough, but the oil companies wouldn’t have fought hand over fist if there wasn’t a realistic return on investment…….Just by upgrading the 1950s & 60s technology & methods used by the Gaddafi regime for the past 40 years alone will drastically increase production, to say nothing of the expansion of current facilities and the construction of new ones…………Of which, the Western oil companies have been doing.

This is the crux of my argument, after Western companies dumped hundreds of millions of dollars into the country, than a few years ago, Gaddafi makes threats about nationalisation and tearing up contracts and gives a hero’s welcome to the Lockerbie bomber, this will naturally foster in fears with the oil companies over their investments………

Do I think the oil companies “engineered” the civil war within Libya……..of course not, why further jeopardise their investments………Do I think the oil companies used their influence in lobbying their parent countries after the birth of the Arab Spring to take action in Libya? Of course they did.

The only real humanitarian action undertaken by foreign governments within Libya to date have been the evacuation of their citizens……..The majority of which work for the oil companies……not a lot of backpacker hostels in Libya…….

[bush_cheney2004]

....They are not producing 2/3rds of the oil they were before Desert Storm to this day.

This is patently false....Iraq is producing about 2.7 million bpd per month compared to higher but much shorter duration peaks during the Iran-Iraq War and pre-Desert Storm. With continued political stability and improved infrastructure from investment, particularly in the south (Basra), Iraq could easily double production by 2015.

Iraq Oil Production History

[M.Dancer]

………Do I think the oil companies used their influence in lobbying their parent countries after the birth of the Arab Spring to take action in Libya? Of course I do....

Corrected for accuracy

[RNG]

With continued political stability and improved infrastructure from investment, particularly in the south (Basra), Iraq could easily double production by 2015.

Iraq Oil Production History

When do the flying pigs get involved?

[Guest Derek L]

When do the flying pigs get involved?

Look at the rate of growth in the chart, it's been climbing steadily for the last few years, baring a war or a spike in the insurgency, I don’t see any reasons why that should stop.

[bloodyminded]

Look at the rate of growth in the chart, it's been climbing steadily for the last few years, baring a war or a spike in the insurgency, I don’t see any reasons why that should stop.

RNG wasn't speaking to the matter of oil production, but of political stability.