Final Seat Predictions Contest

[Dave_ON]

CPC 157

NDP 67

Lib 56

Bloc 27

Green 1

Still holding out that the death of Osama Bin Hiding may give a small bump to a couple of teeter-totter ridings.

Hmmm interesting, do you really think the Bloc will do that well? I personally would love to see them fall below 12 and lose official party status. I also never would have thought you'd predict the GPC gaining a seat, I know how much a fan of May you are after all

[ToadBrother]

A compilation of the polling companies are suggesting similar results. Are you freaking out because you don't like the results, or is your protest based on something?

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/

My protest is based on the fact that I don't think the Tories can form a majority, not on anything else. I don't think they have the numbers. I think it's likely they won't lose a lot of seats, but I can't see them crossing that line.

[noahbody]

I'll say:

141 seats for the CPC

77 seats for the LPC

71 seats for the NDP

19 seats for the bloc

[ToadBrother]

I'll say:

141 seats for the CPC

77 seats for the LPC

71 seats for the NDP

19 seats for the bloc

That might be a more reasonable projection. We'll see.

[Dave_ON]

It will be ugly for the LPC, but nothing like as bad as everyone is predicting. The votes they keep will be focussed in winnable ridings. And it will be very uncomfortable for the Conservatives. Their seat count will fall tooooooooo.... 136.

I hope you're right, I can't wait to hear how Mr. Harper will handle it in his speech if he does in fact lose seats. I couldn't stand to listen to his "strengthened minority" drivel in 2008, as if a minority was the least bit indicative of any level of strength.

I also predict most of urban Ontario will stay Red, with smatterings of orange here and there.

[Hydraboss]

Hmmm interesting, do you really think the Bloc will do that well? I personally would love to see them fall below 12 and lose official party status. I also never would have thought you'd predict the GPC gaining a seat, I know how much a fan of May you are after all

I think the CPC will make the gains necessary for a slim majority (and I mean slim).

I think the NDP "surge" will be felt in Kwebek and then sporadically after that.

I think the Bloc will hurt a lot.

I think the Liberals will fall back to safe ridings (and they still have more than the NDP ever did).

I think May will finally win a seat. At least this time it's her own.

Whatever else happens in this election, I think all the "surging" and "diving" will cause voters to solidify around their choice of party. What I mean to say is, I think there will be less strategic voting and more voting for the party ideals that people actually believe in. The NDP have done something that has never been done before - made people realize that maybe, just maybe, Cinderella stories exist.

Of course,

I AM NOT REFERRING TO JOHN LAYTON AS CINDERELLA. The wording was chosen for effect only and does not and should not be construed as implying Mr. Layton is in any way, shape or form similar to or reminiscent of, Cinderella (copyright Disney Corporation).

[cybercoma]

NB and PEI seem the only places in Canada to have escaped the NDP surge.

I can guarantee you that there's an NDP surge in NB, but it's highly unlikely that it will translate into seats. Anecdotally, I can tell you the NDP has people talking. I can't see them overthrowing any of the ridings, though. They'll keep the one they have and that's it. Who knows, though? There could be surprises tonight.

[PIK]

And by what fantasy do you concoct that result? Do you just make idiotic numbers up that make you feel better?

Just by reading and listening, there is more out there then the TO star. People will change thier minds about jack if they think he could win. Alot of his support is concentrated and might not means alot of seats. Vote slitting. The hold your nose and vote ,will help out harper, bob rae days will help big time in ONT, in NFLD without danny telling them not to vote con. Alot of things out there tell me that he can do it.

[ToadBrother]

Just by reading and listening, there is more out there then the TO star. People will change thier minds about jack if they think he could win. Alot of his support is concentrated and might not means alot of seats. Vote slitting. The hold your nose and vote ,will help out harper, bob rae days will help big time in ONT, in NFLD without danny telling them not to vote con. Alot of things out there tell me that he can do it.

I'm sure that makes you feel better. I do not think he can pull it off, not even a slim majority. I'm more interested in seeing how badly the Liberals do.

[Moonbox]

My protest is based on the fact that I don't think the Tories can form a majority, not on anything else.

Okay well PIK's guess isn't far off what the polling companies are predicting. His guess is at least supported by some of the data we have thus far. What you think is going to happen in the election isn't really based on anything but what you think and with all due respect is no less idiotic than the prediction PIK made.

I don't think they have the numbers. I think it's likely they won't lose a lot of seats, but I can't see them crossing that line.

They're polling at almost exactly the same place they were on the eve of the last election and now the opposition parties have to contend with a vote split.

Edited May 2, 2011 by Moonbox

[Moonbox]

I can guarantee you that there's an NDP surge in NB, but it's highly unlikely that it will translate into seats. Anecdotally, I can tell you the NDP has people talking. I can't see them overthrowing any of the ridings, though. They'll keep the one they have and that's it. Who knows, though? There could be surprises tonight.

I wonder, however, if this talk about Jack will actually help the Conservatives. There are a lot of red tories still in the Liberal Party and how many of them will jump to support Harper simply out of fear of wacko Jacko? I can guarantee you that there are a LOT of anxious people here in Ontario. Outside of dt Toronto, Hamilton and a few crapholes in northern Ontario, NDP is VERY poorly regarded.

[Dave_ON]

Okay well PIK's guess isn't far off what the polling companies are predicting. His guess is at least supported by some of the data we have thus far. What you think is going to happen in the election isn't really based on anything but what you think and with all due respect is no less idiotic than the prediction PIK made.

His prediction is way off of the what the polls indicate when taken in context of one another. 158 CPC really at a peak of 38% even with vote splitting the CPC will not even come close to 158. Also with the BLOC polling at 6% at best they're not going to make 39 seats. In short he's far over selling the CPC and BLOC at the expense of the NDP. I'd be sincerely surprised if the CPC managed to hold onto their 2008 seat count. What is clear is the the NDP are going up at the expense of the LPC, the BLOC and even the CPC.

On the Conservative side based on polls I'd have to guess

CPC 143

NDP 77

LPC 60

BLOC 28

Though I believe that may still be overselling the CPC, LPC and the BLOC at the expense of the NDP but I suppose we'll see tonight.

[Dave_ON]

I wonder, however, if this talk about Jack will actually help the Conservatives. There are a lot of red tories still in the Liberal Party and how many of them will jump to support Harper simply out of fear of wacko Jacko? I can guarantee you that there are a LOT of anxious people here in Ontario. Outside of dt Toronto, Hamilton and a few crapholes in northern Ontario, NDP is VERY poorly regarded.

Ontario is way too up in the air to call at this point. You forgot London East which is currently an NDP riding, though this may have been one of the "crapholes" you were alluding to.

[capricorn]

In the other seat projection thread in mid April I had said this:

Conservative 158

Liberal 67

NDP 42

Bloc 41

In light of the developments in the campaign since then, here is my revision.

Conservative 158

NDP 59

Liberal 53

Bloc 36

Ind. 2 (Guergis and Arthur)

[Topaz]

I have no idea but a young person was on C-PAC and she said that there's 3 million university and college voters and they won't be voting for the Tories. So does this mean new voters 18-25 are going NDP or NDP and Liberal. Since the NDP are further ahead in the polls, they may put Jack over and give him the PMO.

[capricorn]

I have no idea but a young person was on C-PAC and she said that there's 3 million university and college voters and they won't be voting for the Tories.

So does this mean new voters 18-25 are going NDP or NDP and Liberal. Since the NDP are further ahead in the polls, they may put Jack over and give him the PMO.

Some of those students are what are called "mature" students, meaning they returned to school in their later years. In addition, what % of those students will actually vote? All unknowns at this point.

[Moonbox]

Ontario is way too up in the air to call at this point. You forgot London East which is currently an NDP riding, though this may have been one of the "crapholes" you were alluding to.

Parts of London are nice. Some others make downtown Kitchener look good....

[maple_leafs182]

Conservative 141

Liberal 59

NDP 67

Bloc 39

Green 1

Independent 1

[Moonlight Graham]

Mine:

144 seats - CPC

87 seats - NDP

52 seats - Liberals

23 seats - Bloc

2 seats - independents

0 seats - Green

Edited May 2, 2011 by Moonlight Graham

[Who's Doing What?]

Some of those students are what are called "mature" students, meaning they returned to school in their later years. In addition, what % of those students will actually vote? All unknowns at this point.

Another good % of them will be too stoned or hung over to bother voting.

I'd be surprised if 1.25M out of the 3M total make it to the voting booth.

[capricorn]

Another good % of them will be too stoned or hung over to bother voting.

Those post final exam parties last forever.

[TTM]

Cons: 141

NDP: 81

Lib: 59

BQ: 24

Green: 2

Ind: 1

Same as other thread.

[Dog]

154 Conservatives

66 Liberals

65 NDP

22 bloc

1 ind

[CANADIEN]

I'm from NB myself and I have to agree with cybercoma, the NDP just doesn't have the presence there to gain seats.

And they don't the presence in Quebec to get more than two or three seats there (about everybody 6 weeks ago(

Now, the predictions:

Conservativess 150

New Democrats 70

Liberals 47

Bloc 29

Green 1

Independant 1

[CANADIEN]

sup

Edited May 3, 2011 by CANADIEN