Harper Bombs, Bye, Bye Majority

[Harry]

Well that was short and sweet.

Harper came in dead last in the French language debate tonite which effectively ends any chances for him to win a majority government.

Post French-Language Debate Flash Poll Reveals Duceppe Takes the Night, Harper Stumbles

The poll of 637 Francophones (92% of which live in Quebec, 8% live in the rest of Canada), conducted exclusively for Global National in the half-hour immediately following the debate, shows that Gilles Duceppe has been named the winner of the debate by 42% of Francophone viewers, exceeding his pre-debate expectations by 11 points. Conversely, after a solid performance in the English-language debate, Stephen Harper stumbles and performs considerably under expectations with only 12% indicating that he won the debate (down 7 points). Both Michael Ignatieff (22%, up 7 points) and Jack Layton (19%, up 3 points) had solid showings, improving on Francophones pre-debate expectations.

Harper’s performance in the debate had a net negative effect on viewers as just 11% say their impressions of Stephen Harper improved, compared with 47% whose impressions worsened (net: -36). Contrast that with Jack Layton’s and Michael Ignatieff’s performances: a majority (52%) had improved impressions of the NDP leader as a result of watching the debate, compared to just 10% whose impressions worsened (net: +42). Similarly, a majority (52%) of Francophone viewers say their impressions of Michael Ignatieff improved, while just one quarter (24%) say they worsened (net: +28).

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5205

Edited April 14, 2011 by Harry

[ToadBrother]

Well that was short and sweet.

Harper came in dead last in the French language debate tonite which effectively ends any chances for him to win a majority government.

I still don't buy the idea that the debates have that much influence. I think a Tory majority was a tall order before it, and the numbers already seemed to be softening up anyways.

[kimmy]

I still don't buy the idea that the debates have that much influence. I think a Tory majority was a tall order before it, and the numbers already seemed to be softening up anyways.

Yes... I think a campaign that can fairly be compared to Paul Martin's 2006 campaign is what has put an end to Harper's chances of a majority.

-k

[Harry]

I wonder how many seats in Quebec Harper will lose because of tonite's debate.

Duceppe scores points for passion: analystsBut the NDP's Jack Layton also received accolades for his strong showing, going head-to-head with Conservative leader Stephen Harper, who was criticized for a somewhat leaden and robotic delivery. Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff improved over Tuesday, focusing more on the elements of his program which were lacking in the English debate, but was overshadowed by Layton and Duceppe, analysts said.

"The biggest difference (between the English and French debates) was the pivotal role Duceppe took," Toronto Star political columnist Chantal Hébert said on CBC news. Layton's performance was remarkable for taking a central role in a debate in Quebec, a first for the NDP, she said, while Harper appeared "somewhat diminished."

Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/Duceppe+scores+points+passion+analysts/4611947/story.html#ixzz1JU3P8dKA

[betsy]

Prior to the debate, everyone in the media expected Harper to just hang on to his seats in Quebec. All he can do is to defend his position, explain his platform and emphasize on the economy. All media and political talk panels (including strategists) know that all three will pummel on him, and Harper is Diuceppe's "boogeyman," his main intention is to stop Harper majority.

We'll see how Quebec will vote.

[Bryan]

Harper did fine in the debate. The results of this poll reflect exactly what August was saying in another thread: How well you speak Quebecois french is more important than what you said.

[blueblood]

Yes... I think a campaign that can fairly be compared to Paul Martin's 2006 campaign is what has put an end to Harper's chances of a majority.

-k

I wouldn't say so yet. It hasn't fallen off the rails unlike martin's which did and the campaign team went into panic mode.

The numbers may be soft in the like department, but it will all depend if voters are sick of minorities or not.

[PIK]

Now that I am back from being banished to redemption island, I will have to say harper is looking at a majority still and a good chance he will do it without quebec or the english quebecers start voting con instead of lib, especially since we have gille stelling the rest of canada that we owe him for stopping a con majority.After the english debate we all know now that a con minority will be voted out again on the throne speech or the next budget, iggy has pretty well confirmed that. I see them gaining big in ONT NFLD,BC, so anything is possible.

[Rue]

Not sure the debates will influence anyone in Quebec. It might have some effect in terms of whether Ignatieff can get some old time federalist Quebecers to come back to the Libs from both the Tories and Bloc but that is about it.

Anyway you slice it the Bloc is going to sweep Quebec again. It is a direct backlash to the Murloney patronage years.

I think both Harper and Duceppe trying to resurrect hatred of Trudeau to get votes won't work. I think the kind of voters that attracts already would have voted for them.

Maybe Ignatieff did enough to convince some Quebecers last night to come back to the Liberals, but I think probably not.

Harper is screwed in Quebec. He used them to get elected and then when he did not need them, poof.

If I was a Canadian whether I am from Quebec or Newfoundland I would say he is a two faced user and tries to use patronage to divide and conquer.

Its Harper's decision to play rural off of urban and all of Canada against the GTA and English against French, as a winning strategy that creates this minority stalemate.

Its a joke for Harper to say he wants a majority when his message is to deliberately create

resentment between regions and different groups to try split the votes and get himself

elected.

The Block will sweep Quebec with a few Montreal seats staying Liberal.

If I were the GTA I would vividly remember the G-8 fiasco and how Harper has absolutely screwed Toronto small businesses who were ruined by the G-8 and instead took money he said he would give them to pay back for the business interuption and vandalism and instead handed out out in Huntsville. Pure classical Harper. Hand out the money as patronage to rural areas and make it clear he hates Toronto then he has the nerve to show up in my riding in Mississauga looking for votes.

He didn't shake my hand. I said its clear he screws Torontonians every chance he gets so don't touch my hand with his phony corupt patronage hands that are no different then the patronage he allegedly came to Ottawa to fight.

Harper is everything he claimed he was challenging as a Reformist. He is identical to Chretien in how he hands out patronage to get votes.

He plays on the complacency and stupidity of Canadians.

He gets caught red handed lying and exposed by Layton and Duceppe and he simply keeps lying and the average Canadian goes along with the lies and the patronage and the fact that

he keeps claiming to have a personal hand in resurrecting the Canadian economy.

he had nothing to do with the global market conditions that dictate the recovery and if anythings screwed Ontarians abandoning them when car plants shut down. He made sure other regions of Canada continue to get more UIC then Ontarians.

What a two faced whore.

I will reluctantly vote for Ignatieff. I find some of the Liberal platform pie in the sky and I prefer Harper's foreign policy but Harper is a two faced liar whose government has mis-spent money, engaged in corpution and contempt and sheer arrogance not to mention given the finger to our representatives in parliament by using the very crony Senate he was dead against to destroy bills created by popularily elected mp's.

He is an arrogant and anti democratic fat head.

Ignatieff is an annoying out of touch elitist academic but at this point who else is there-elizabeth Ray human snot rag or Jack Layton the flying monkey from the Wizard of Oz? Give me a break.

As for Gilles Duceppe, if he was not a traitor sob seperatist two faced whore hypocrite and running in Ontario I would be tempted to vote for him.

[Smallc]

Anyway you slice it the Bloc is going to sweep Quebec again. It is a direct backlash to the Murloney patronage years.

Maybe...but the NDP is taking some wind out of their sails. Also, the thing that allowed the Bloc to seep Quebec in the last few elections was in fact the Sponsorship Scandal, not Mulroney. In 2000, Chretien got more votes and almost as many seats as the Bloc.

Edited April 14, 2011 by Smallc

[Harry]

Harper can now kiss most of his Quebec seats good-bye. I think Canadians and Quebeckers have now had enough. My hunch is that the Conservatives will continue to fall until election day now. I think Harper may be looking at around 125 seats now, unless it gets worse for him and he sure does not have the momentum.

[Harry]

Harper did fine in the debate. The results of this poll reflect exactly what August was saying in another thread: How well you speak Quebecois french is more important than what you said.

No Harper didn't. Every single report I have seen shows Harper coming in dead last last nite. Read the Leger Marketing and the Ipsos Reid polls following the debate and look at Nanos this morning. The party's over for Harper.

[Evening Star]

Maybe...but the NDP is taking some wind out of their sails.

With the last couple of elections, I was assuming that, at least for urban and especially Montreal-area voters, people were voting for the BQ's leftism more than for their separatism/nationalism. Now that Duceppe really seems to be emphasizing the latter, I'm really interested to see what the QC results will be.

Edited April 14, 2011 by Evening Star

[maldon_road]

If there was a winner it was Layton who performed well. But we have to ask ourselves - do debates really matter? If they do the NDP should be the beneficiary of any Bloc supporters looking for a new home. The Tories might have expected some more seats in Quebec but that was never really in the cards. I don't think a majority is out of the question but looking bleaker each day as the polls start to tighten up.

[Wild Bill]

No Harper didn't. Every single report I have seen shows Harper coming in dead last last nite. Read the Leger Marketing and the Ipsos Reid polls following the debate and look at Nanos this morning. The party's over for Harper.

Let me see if I understand the basis for your premise. You start off by hating Harper. Then you see some VERY early polls that claim he lost the French language debate. You assume that the results of the debate will totally mirror the voting patterns of the Quebec people and loudly predict that Harper is doomed!

It's kinda thin, Harry! The results of the debates have never been as accurate as you pretend before. Why on earth would they be now?

Did every voter in Quebec watch the debate? How do you know how those that didn't will vote? How do you know if someone grants that one candidate won the debate they would instantly abandon their choice? Do you think that if Duceppe lost the debate, ALL his supporters would promptly switch to another party?

So far, all you've done is show the world how much you want Harper to lose. You've got little or nothing to substantiate your opinion.

On May 2, we will see what will happen. A lot of folks on MLW are going to get laughed at for their poor predictions as we dissect the entrails and read the bones of how and where voters voted.

It should be great fun and I'm very much looking forward to it!

Edited April 14, 2011 by Wild Bill

[Moonbox]

No Harper didn't. Every single report I have seen shows Harper coming in dead last last nite. Read the Leger Marketing and the Ipsos Reid polls following the debate and look at Nanos this morning. The party's over for Harper.

The 2nd debate will have little to no effect on Harper's numbers. The polling from the English debate showed that Harper stayed the same and Layton gained at the expense of Ignatieff.

Even if Harper loses a few seats in Quebec (he won't lose all, some of his candidates are shoe-ins), his huge gains in the Maritimes and Ontario look like they'll cover for that.

I don't think he'll get a majority but people are already losing interest in the campaign and have made a lot of their decisions. We have playoff hockey to worry about and a Royal Wedding (lol) to worry about.

[Wild Bill]

The 2nd debate will have little to no effect on Harper's numbers. The polling from the English debate showed that Harper stayed the same and Layton gained at the expense of Ignatieff.

I think you're right, MB! This election may go down in history as the most boring!

[wyly]

Harper can now kiss most of his Quebec seats good-bye. I think Canadians and Quebeckers have now had enough. My hunch is that the Conservatives will continue to fall until election day now. I think Harper may be looking at around 125 seats now, unless it gets worse for him and he sure does not have the momentum.

125 is based on latest pools, if they are correct...if correct a 2 point drop by the conservatives combined with a like rise in liberal fortunes then a liberal minority becomes a possibility...

[Keepitsimple]

125 is based on latest pools, if they are correct...if correct a 2 point drop by the conservatives combined with a like rise in liberal fortunes then a liberal minority becomes a possibility...

Go Libs, go!

[cybercoma]

Harper did fine in the debate.

Harper’s performance in the debate had a net negative effect on viewers as just 11% say their impressions of Stephen Harper improved, compared with 47% whose impressions worsened (net: -36).

I'm not quite sure what your definition of fine is, but I'm pretty sure he by most people's definition he most certainly did not do fine.

[capricorn]

I will reluctantly vote for Ignatieff. I find some of the Liberal platform pie in the sky

No worries Rue. It is a trademark of Liberal to offer utopia in election campaigns and then shelve platform promises.

Edited April 14, 2011 by capricorn

[Harry]

Something strange is taking place.

NDP trends up after debate while Liberal support stays stagnant

Jack Layton and his NDP are on the move, gaining ground in the key battlegrounds of Ontario and British Columbia at the expense of a flat Liberal campaign, according to a new Nanos Research poll.

Nationally, Stephen Harpers Conservatives maintain an eight-point lead over Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals 38.9 per cent compared to 31.1 per cent. But the story Thursday morning is that of Mr. Laytons national gains he has increased his support from his campaign nadir last Friday of 14.9 per cent to 18.3 per cent now.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-trends-up-after-debate-while-liberal-support-stays-stagnant/article1985114/

Edited April 14, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

The effect of the French debate was sure noticed in BC, so if it had an inpact there, it has had an inpact across the country.

Feisty Layton makes strong pitch in left-of-centre Bloc territory

With polls showing a new-found surge of Quebec support for Jack Layton, the NDP leader played an unusually big role in Wednesday's French-language debate.

-------------

The debates marked the midway point in a campaign in which Stephen Harper's Conservatives have recorded a dip in the polls.

Ekos Research put Conservative support at 33.8 per cent nationally this week -down from about 40 per cent -to the Liberals' 28.8 per cent, and 19.1 per cent for New Democrats.

The New Democrats are surprising many with growing strength in a province that used to shut them out entirely.

Layton's team, which in 2008 elected just one MP -Thomas Mulcair -in a Montreal riding, this time is vigorously fishing for votes in the same leftof-centre pool as the Bloc.

Which explained a series of feisty exchanges Wednesday between Gilles Duceppe and Layton.

Layton noted his party is the only one that has been committed since the '90s to giving $2.2 billion to Quebec for its implementation of a harmonized sales tax.

For the second night in a row, Layton accused Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff of being "Mr. Harper's best friend," hoping to dismiss the Liberals and Conservatives as two old-line parties that "always choose to help rich people over your own families."

And he made a direct pitch to his audience: "Those of you who voted Bloc in the past, vote for us -to change the government."

--------------

And it obviously became more difficult for Harper to defend policies that Quebecers, by and large, do not favour.

For example, Quebecers have scoffed at Conservative policies on a national securities regulator, climate change, scrapping the gun registry, federal funding to help develop Newfoundland's Lower Churchill hydro project and troops in Afghanistan -all of which the Conservative leader was forced to defend during the debate.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/decision-canada/Feisty+Layton+makes+strong+pitch+left+centre+Bloc+territory/4613583/story.html

[Moonbox]

The effect of the French debate was sure noticed in BC, so if it had an inpact there, it has had an inpact across the country.

The people in BC didn't watch the French debate. The uptrend for the NDP reflects how much better Layton was than Ignatieff in the English debate. Like I said before, this is good news for the conservatives and terrible news for the Liberals. Split the vote and give Harper his majority.

[capricorn]

The people in BC didn't watch the French debate.

Under 4 million viewed the English debate.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5goBSDPs7DgxEquQYjGNhdCRapqCA?docId=6555763

No stats yet for French debate viewership but the above gives us a clue.