Federal Election Polls

[TimG]

truthers

WTF. Truthers are amount exclusively left wing nuts cases. Look at Libby Davies. When it comes to counting kooks/sq mile you will find more in the NDP than you will in the CPC. One of the virtues of the Libs is they dont attract the lunatic fringe. Edited April 28, 2011 by TimG

[ToadBrother]

WTF. Truthers are amount exclusively left wing nuts cases. Look at Libby Davies. When it comes to counting kooks/sq mile you will find more in the NDP than you will in the CPC. One of the virtues of the Libs is they dont attract the lunatic fringe.

You're forgetting the maniacal centrists...

Edited April 28, 2011 by ToadBrother

[Smallc]

So Nanos is starting to catch up:

C: 36.6%

N: 30.4%

L: 21.9%

B: 6%

G: 4.1%

http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2011/polltracker/index.html

Oh. and that Quebec regional number is.....ummm....well....incredible. In fact, all the regional numbers are really showing the same thing, to one degree or another. If the NDP can get the vote out....what a day Monday will be for them.

Edited April 28, 2011 by Smallc

[nittanylionstorm07]

So Nanos is starting to catch up:

C: 36.6%

N: 30.4%

L: 21.9%

B: 6%

G: 4.1%

http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2011/polltracker/index.html

Oh. and that Quebec regional number is.....ummm....well....incredible. In fact, all the regional numbers are really showing the same thing, to one degree or another. If the NDP can get the vote out....what a day Monday will be for them.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but at this rate, we are looking at the NDP tie or lead the Tories by election day! Especially with the Ontario numbers moving like they are...

Edited April 28, 2011 by nittanylionstorm07

[BubberMiley]

That shows quite a drop for the CPC in Ontario.

At least they're making modest gains out here on the Prairies.

Too bad they're aren't many seats here left for them to pick up.

[Harry]

Well at least Nanos is now converging with the other pollsters - sure looks like Harper is heading for a train wreck on Monday nite.

Nanos Research - 3 days ending April 27

Tory lead narrows to 6 points, NDP trending up

Cons - 36.6%, Down 1.2% and Down 1.2% from 2008 GE and dropping

NDP - 30.4%, Up 2.6% and Up 12.2% from 2008 GE and rising (only 6.2% out of first place)

Libs - 21.9%, Down 1.0%

Bloc - 6.0%, Up 0.2%

Grn - 4.1%, Down 0.6%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110427-BallotE.pdf

[Harry]

Most Recent polling:

Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc

Apr 28 / Nanos / 36.6% / 30.4% / 21.9% / 6.0% / NDP within 6.2% of first place

Apr 27 / EKOS / 34.0% / 28.1% / 22.9% / 6.6% / NDP within 5.9% of first place

Apr 27 / Forum / 34.0% / 31.0% / 22.0% / / NDP within 3% of first place

Apr 26 / Nanos / 37.8% / 27.8% / 22.9% / 5.8%

Apr 26 / Angus R / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / 5.0% / NDP within 5% of 1st place

Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27.9% / 24.0% / 6.0%

Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28.0% / 23.7% / 6.2%

Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% /

Apr 21 / Envi / 39.0% / 25.0% / 22.0% /

Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43.0% / 24.0% / 21.0% / 6.0%

Apr 16 / Angus R / 36.0% / 25.0% / 25.0% /

Edited April 28, 2011 by Harry

[ToadBrother]

Most Recent polling:

Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc

Apr 28 / Nanos / 36.6% / 30.4% / 21.9% / 6.0% / NDP within 6.2% of first place

Apr 27 / EKOS / 34.0% / 28.1% / 22.9% / 6.6% / NDP within 5.9% of first place

Apr 27 / Forum / 34.0% / 31.0% / 22.0% / / NDP within 3% of first place

Apr 26 / Nanos / 37.8% / 27.8% / 22.9% / 5.8%

Apr 26 / Angus R / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / 5.0% / NDP within 5% of 1st place

Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27.9% / 24.0% / 6.0%

Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28.0% / 23.7% / 6.2%

Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% /

Apr 21 / Envi / 39.0% / 25.0% / 22.0% /

Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43.0% / 24.0% / 21.0% / 6.0%

Apr 16 / Angus R / 36.0% / 25.0% / 25.0% /

I've kind of given up on Nanos at this point. The slowest dog in the pack isn't going to find the fox.

[Harry]

TB I hear you about Nanos, there is something weird going on there.

Nanos Regionals - 3 days ending April 27

Tory lead narrows to 6 points, NDP trending up

AT

C - 29.4%

N - 29.2%

L - 33.3%

QC

N - 42.5%

B - 25.1%

L - 15.0%

C - 13.5%

ON

C - 41.1%

N - 26.1%

L - 27.9%

Prairies

C - 53.8%

N - 26.0%

L - 14.6%

BC

C - 45.3%

N - 26.9%

L - 23.1%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110427-BallotE.pdf

Edited April 28, 2011 by Harry

[nittanylionstorm07]

TB I hear you about Nanos, there is something weird going on there.

Nanos Regionals - 3 days ending April 27

Tory lead narrows to 6 points, NDP trending up

AT

C - 29.4%

N - 29.2%

L - 33.3%

QC

N - 42.5%

B - 25.1%

L - 15.0%

C - 13.5%

ON

C - 41.1%

N - 26.1%

L - 27.9%

Prairies

C - 53.8%

N - 26.0%

L - 14.6%

BC

C - 45.3%

N - 26.9%

L - 23.1%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110427-BallotE.pdf

I wish they would take Alberta out of Sask/Man... it's affecting the numbers way too much.

[wyly]

nanos is off from other polls and from what I understand may be because of they collect data, by phone...statistically the people most likely to answer a phone call from an unknown source or out of area codes are rural, old and under educated(no insult intended)...that would skew results as it would under represent urban, young and educated...personally I never answer calls from out of area unless it's from a friend or family member, i don't normally even answer local numbers unless they identify themselves I'm sure I'm not alone in doing this...and where does conservative strength lie? the old rural and under-educated...

Edited April 28, 2011 by wyly

[PIK]

I believe canadians are not stupid enough to give jack any power, flirt with it but not going to come thru. Harper with 158-161 seats.

[cybercoma]

I believe canadians are not stupid enough to give jack any power, flirt with it but not going to come thru. Harper with 158-161 seats.

Keep calling Canadians stupid for choosing Layton because that has gone over so well.

[wyly]

I wish they would take Alberta out of Sask/Man... it's affecting the numbers way too much.

yeah politically very different cultures...it would be like lumping utah nevada and california...

[wyly]

I believe canadians are not stupid enough to give jack any power, flirt with it but not going to come thru. Harper with 158-161 seats.

harper at 158-161 with 35% of the vote will only hasten the end of our seriously flawed FPTP system...

[treehugger]

Keep calling Canadians stupid for choosing Layton because that has gone over so well.

Any Canadian that would vote for a socialist government is really stupid! The handouts are really appealing to the lazy crowd that votes socialist.70 billion promised to you so far.

[nittanylionstorm07]

I believe canadians are not stupid enough to give jack any power, flirt with it but not going to come thru. Harper with 158-161 seats.

Confusing your dreams with reality, are ya?

[Smallc]

Any Canadian that would vote for a socialist government is really stupid! The handouts are really appealing to the lazy crowd that votes socialist.70 billion promised to you so far.

And how much have the Conservatives spent in the last five years, hmmm?

[nittanylionstorm07]

Any Canadian that would vote for a socialist government is really stupid! The handouts are really appealing to the lazy crowd that votes socialist.70 billion promised to you so far.

Yeah. No one with a job ever votes NDP (lol "socialist"... American politics is infecting Canada too much)... and everyone who votes Tory are successful people with jobs.

Yup.

[Harry]

Layton is closing the gap - mean, angry Harper is so dead this election.

[TTM]

Layton is closing the gap - mean, angry Harper is so dead this election.

Don't count your chickens yet. Harper is still polling in the mid thirties, with a base support of probably around 30%. If the NDP is not able to eat into the Conservative numbers, there will still be a strong Conservative minority, esp. due to vote splitting in Ontario. And remember, something like 2 million people voted, before the "Orange Surge".

[jacee]

nanos is off from other polls

nanos uses a 3 day rolling average, more stable for tracking longer term trends but it doesn't show day to day change.

Is anyone connecting the dots yet to the conclusion that if the Ontario trend continues we could be looking at an NDP majority?

Unfrigginbelievable!

[nittanylionstorm07]

Don't count your chickens yet. Harper is still polling in the mid thirties, with a base support of probably around 30%. If the NDP is not able to eat into the Conservative numbers, there will still be a strong Conservative minority, esp. due to vote splitting in Ontario. And remember, something like 2 million people voted, before the "Orange Surge".

They've been eating into Conservative numbers the past several days across the country.

[wyly]

Don't count your chickens yet. Harper is still polling in the mid thirties, with a base support of probably around 30%. If the NDP is not able to eat into the Conservative numbers, there will still be a strong Conservative minority, esp. due to vote splitting in Ontario. And remember, something like 2 million people voted, before the "Orange Surge".

no the surge had already begun and high turnouts usually go in favour of the oppositon and I believe this early turnout set a record...

and I'm not so sure about 30% base I think the pre merge PC members are different than harper reform base which would be about 15%...

Edited April 28, 2011 by wyly

[wyly]

nanos uses a 3 day rolling average, more stable for tracking longer term trends but it doesn't show day to day change.

Is anyone connecting the dots yet to the conclusion that if the Ontario trend continues we could be looking at an NDP majority?

Unfrigginbelievable!

it will show a trend but the numbers they show are lagging...