Federal Election Polls

ToadBrother · October 8, 2015

At this point, I do not think that Canadians even know that much about the TPP. Most people aren't like us!

They know Tom Mulcair doesn't like it and that Justin Trudeau is reserving judgment. Sadly, people don't need to know anything about a topic to hold an opinion on it.

dialamah · October 8, 2015

At this point, I do not think that Canadians even know that much about the TPP. Most people aren't like us!

I don't feel like I know anything about it, but there tends to be a lot of yelling about this kind of thing. Much as I don't like Harper, I don't think he would make anything but best deal he could for Canada. And I do believe that over long term trade is good, but can be painful short term.

Smeelious · October 8, 2015

I don't feel like I know anything about it, but there tends to be a lot of yelling about this kind of thing. Much as I don't like Harper, I don't think he would make anything but best deal he could for Canada. And I do believe that over long term trade is good, but can be painful short term.

What kind of reasonable, considered nonsense is this?!

I demand more...outrage?

ScottM · October 8, 2015

Sadly, people don't need to know anything about a topic to hold an opinion on it.

Just to back up your point, let's assume that 80% of the population would like the agreement once they're informed. (Before anyone calls out that number, I'm just using it to make a point.) That would obviously be huge for the Conservatives if they can get the message out. The question is, is a week and a half enough time? If Kim Campbell didn't think 47 days were enough, I doubt 11 are. We live in a soundbite generation, and that does make it hard to hash out the details of serious topics in short periods of time. The initial, all too often uninformed opinions you speak of are often the ones that matter the most. Perception is more important that reality.

Much as I don't like Harper, I don't think he would make anything but best deal he could for Canada. And I do believe that over long term trade is good, but can be painful short term.

If I were to put myself in the position of Harper's strategy team, that's just the play I'd make. There still might not be enough time, but that's the best "soundbite" approach I could think of. I don't say that to knock it. It has the strength of being simple and to the point.

Edited October 8, 2015 by ScottM

ToadBrother · October 8, 2015

Is this a first for the election? 308 is predicting a Liberal minority of 127 seats, with the Tories at 124 and the with 85.

More important to my mind is that Eric is clearly projecting that the Tories' vote efficiency is faltering, because the Liberals have sat above the Tories before and the Tories still had the plurality. Clearly he sees a sea change in the latest polls.

ToadBrother · October 8, 2015

If I were to put myself in the position of Harper's strategy team, that's just the play I'd make. There still might not be enough time, but that's the best "soundbite" approach I could think of. I don't say that to knock it. It has the strength of being simple and to the point.

The problem here is that while the NDP's narrative may not have helped the NDP, and it may have hurt the Tories, and defending the deal as "the best possible deal" sounds almost like resignation to me, and not a strong defense.

And just to be clear, I'm generally in favor of the deal (I still think the IP protections are ludicrous, but we live in an age when copyright has effectively become infinite, so this doesn't make it much worse).

ScottM · October 8, 2015

Is this a first for the election? 308 is predicting a Liberal minority of 127 seats, with the Tories at 124 and the with 85.

More important to my mind is that Eric is clearly projecting that the Tories' vote efficiency is faltering, because the Liberals have sat above the Tories before and the Tories still had the plurality. Clearly he sees a sea change in the latest polls.

It may have something to do with geography too, i.e. where the movement is coming. I say that since I see that the Liberals are up seats in BC and Quebec. Maybe they had several seats they were on the cusp of capturing because of regional numbers that finally fell their way.

angrypenguin · October 8, 2015

Is this poll tracked? - what's this daily vote tracker thing?

http://ipolitics.ca/hcn/the-ekos-poll/

ScottM · October 8, 2015

The problem here is that while the NDP's narrative may not have helped the NDP, and it may have hurt the Tories, and defending the deal as "the best possible deal" sounds almost like resignation to me, and not a strong defense.

And just to be clear, I'm generally in favor of the deal (I still think the IP protections are ludicrous, but we live in an age when copyright has effectively become infinite, so this doesn't make it much worse).

I'd modify it, of course. Something like, "I negotiated the deal that was in the best interests of Canada," or whatever. Use it to stir up patriotism. I didn't necessarily mean a word for word thing, just the basic sentiment phrased to elicit emotion from the voters, because sadly, emotion seems to be what works the most on all fronts of politics from all sides.

waldo · October 8, 2015

Is this a first for the election? 308 is predicting a Liberal minority of 127 seats, with the Tories at 124 and the with 85.

More important to my mind is that Eric is clearly projecting that the Tories' vote efficiency is faltering, because the Liberals have sat above the Tories before and the Tories still had the plurality. Clearly he sees a sea change in the latest polls.

for what it's worth, the Signal has now also shifted to 'slightly' favour Liberal efficiency... as I'm aware, first time there as well.

dialamah · October 8, 2015

What kind of reasonable, considered nonsense is this?!

It is my usual approach, believe it or not.

I demand more...outrage?

You should say "We desperately need a hotline to report barbaric cultural practices! Save the (brown immigrant) women of Canada!" I can work up some pretty good outrage for that.

angrypenguin · October 8, 2015

for what it's worth, the Signal has now also shifted to 'slightly' favour Liberal efficiency... as I'm aware, first time there as well.

Maybe because it's because I'm on my phone...where does it show this?

dialamah · October 8, 2015

Just to back up your point, let's assume that 80% of the population would like the agreement once they're informed. (Before anyone calls out that number, I'm just using it to make a point.) That would obviously be huge for the Conservatives if they can get the message out. The question is, is a week and a half enough time? If Kim Campbell didn't think 47 days were enough, I doubt 11 are. We live in a soundbite generation, and that does make it hard to hash out the details of serious topics in short periods of time. The initial, all too often uninformed opinions you speak of are often the ones that matter the most. Perception is more important that reality.

When people are still saying, after three weeks of 'messaging' that Trudeau is eliminating the senior pension when he's not, then yeah, I think 11 days isn't going to cut it. Although Harper's advantage with being able to afford prime time advertising slots may stand him in good stead although he may have to cut back on the attack ads, though. Priorities, eh?

Smeelious · October 8, 2015

Maybe because it's because I'm on my phone...where does it show this?

The popular vote is mostly unchanged, but the liberals gained a few seats overnight

waldo · October 8, 2015

Maybe because it's because I'm on my phone...where does it show this?

duh! Where other than projected seat count?

ToadBrother · October 8, 2015

The popular vote is mostly unchanged, but the liberals gained a few seats overnight

Exactly. Eric is clearly seeing a shift in vote efficiency. High vote efficiency has been the Tories best friend for the last nine years. I have strongly felt that pollsters were giving too much weight to the efficiency of the Tory vote, which meant that the tendency in two and three way split ridings was to automatically give more weight to the Tory candidate.

He doesn't seem to explain this in his blog, so I'm thinking of contacting Eric to see why he's made what really is a monumental shift in the underlying nature of the numbers.

ToadBrother · October 8, 2015

for what it's worth, the Signal has now also shifted to 'slightly' favour Liberal efficiency... as I'm aware, first time there as well.

Wow. That's really interesting, because even a few days ago, the Signal was showing a Tory minority with 140 seats or thereabouts. If both 308 and the Signal are suggesting that the Tory vote efficiency is dropping, this is a major, potentially game changing shift in the election.

cybercoma · October 8, 2015

I don't think Tory vote efficiency dropped, guys. I think it's riding specific polls that have come out and are now being included in the projections. Like I said in my seat prediction thread, I just don't see where the Tories can pick up seats. The popular vote is barely representative of the seats that the parties get and that's what we're seeing here.

ToadBrother · October 8, 2015

I don't think Tory vote efficiency dropped, guys. I think it's riding specific polls that have come out and are now being included in the projections...

The two are not mutually exclusive. If we're getting better riding level data, that means we are getting actual data on relative vote efficiency. If riding level data is beginning to suggest previous assumptions that the Tories just naturally had higher vote efficiency (in other words, the "It's Tories versus Progressives") are wrong in many cases, then that completely alters the potential outcome, even if the two parties are in a statistical dead heat.

The Tories have been handed at least a minority since before the writ was dropped. The automatic assumption was that the Liberals and NDP were going to split the vote, and the Tories would ride up the middle (in other words, the Tories had higher efficiency). If that's no longer a factor; if indeed the NDP have faded so much that they are no longer a significant factor in a lot of swing ridings, then the Tories very much have problem, and very little time to fix it.

SpankyMcFarland · October 8, 2015

It's just mind-boggling to me that the Conservatives could end up with 201 seats with 32.4% of the vote.

Smeelious · October 8, 2015

It's just mind-boggling to me that the Conservatives could end up with 201 seats with 32.4% of the vote.

Huh? Where is that projection coming from?

SpankyMcFarland · October 8, 2015

Huh? Where is that projection coming from?

It's on the CBC website - upper end of the range, 'worst case' projection.

ToadBrother · October 8, 2015

It's on the CBC website - upper end of the range, 'worst case' projection.

That's in the "you walk out the door and get struck by lightning while simultaneously winning the Publishing Clearing House Sweepstakes" area of probability.

Vancouver King · October 8, 2015

That's in the "you walk out the door and get struck by lightning while simultaneously winning the Publishing Clearing House Sweepstakes" area of probability.

Yes, such an electoral fantasy would require something in the order of a very important region's expected voter intentions completely disintegrating and the fallout from such a political disaster falling inordinately into the Tories column - oh wait, that's exactly what's happening in Quebec.

ToadBrother · October 8, 2015

Yes, such an electoral fantasy would require something in the order of a very important region's expected voter intentions completely disintegrating and the fallout from such a political disaster falling inordinately into the Tories column - oh wait, that's exactly what's happening in Quebec.

Not by any projection I'm seeing. You seem to have this tendency to look at the absolute extreme and then declare that that is what is happening. The two poll aggregators are not showing any such collapse.

I kind of gather you're a left-of-center voter, and I tend to view your nightmare scenarios as some sort of bizarre way of trying to encourage the ABH camp.

The NDP will still win seats in Quebec, the Tories and Liberals will divide the spoils of the Orange Crash, and there's no way the Tories are getting a majority, or anywhere near it.