cybercoma Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 Sorry ... I'm taking too long to edit. See expanded post above. . Oh, also, I stand corrected on Essex. I made a few phone calls and it sounds like the NDP candidate, Tracey Ramsey, in that riding is getting out there and talking to everyone and nobody has seen Watson. On the other hand, a popular city councillor is running for the Conservatives in Windsor-Tecumseh. Quote
Derek 2.0 Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 If they get a majority. Trying to claim that the 2011 election can tell us anything about a three way race is, to say the least, not going to lead you to good sound results. Nor is trying to invoke what may or may not be a temporary bump. If the Tories are actually recovering, I think more than a few days of positive polling is needed, and an actual change in the trend is required. Like I said, I put little stock into polls......within the last 24 hours, we've had Nanos suggesting a Liberal lead, Ekos a Tory lead and Forum an NDP lead.......but all three have shown a Tory uptick. Quote
cybercoma Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 Sure, and it puts him now where he was a month prior to the 2011 election, low 30s and trending upwards.... trending? I don't think word means what you think it means. 1 data point is not a trend. Quote
ToadBrother Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 trending? I don't think word means what you think it means. 1 data point is not a trend. A trend is a change over several polls over several weeks. The recent uptick in the Tories seems only a couple of days old. Quote
Derek 2.0 Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 trending? I don't think word means what you think it means. 1 data point is not a trend. Three differing polls, with three differing results, that all show the Tories improving would be what? Quote
ToadBrother Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 Three differing polls, with three differing results, that all show the Tories improving would be what? Three different polls over the same short period. I'd say they're positive news for the Tories. Plans for the next majority seem highly premature. Quote
cybercoma Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 Three differing polls, with three differing results, that all show the Tories improving would be what? A trend if it continues over the next couple weeks. Quote
cybercoma Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 The biggest change appears to be in and around Toronto. There's a lot of Conservative seats that are going to swing Liberal. Quote
Derek 2.0 Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 Three different polls over the same short period. I'd say they're positive news for the Tories. Plans for the next majority seem highly premature. I've been planning it since 2011 Quote
ToadBrother Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 I've been planning it since 2011 And??? Do you really think the Tories will just keep winning elections forever? Quote
Vancouver King Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 Today's results suggest the polling/media assumption that the refugee issue is a loser for Harper is in error. We should have realized it - despite the recent platitudes on Canadians generosity, we can be selfish towards outsiders. Harper gaining support on the refugee issue? - unfortunately it has the ring of truth. Quote When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one. ...... Lord Lytton
Derek 2.0 Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 And??? Do you really think the Tories will just keep winning elections forever? Nah, just until the transition period between Harper and Darth Kenney has started and completed.........say somewhere around ~2019-2021, after the short lived Trudeau government Quote
PIK Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 If trudeau ends up in 3rd ,do they keep him? Seen a poll today that put harper back in the lead and mulcair in 3rd. Polls can drive people crazy. lol Quote Toronto, like a roach motel in the middle of a pretty living room.
cybercoma Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 If trudeau ends up in 3rd ,do they keep him? Seen a poll today that put harper back in the lead and mulcair in 3rd. Polls can drive people crazy. lol Actually, you saw a poll with all three parties in a statistical tie. Quote
ToadBrother Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 If trudeau ends up in 3rd ,do they keep him? Seen a poll today that put harper back in the lead and mulcair in 3rd. Polls can drive people crazy. lol What happens to any of them should they end up in third place? Frankly, unless one of them completely crashes, I'd say the only one at real risk of losing the job is Harper. If the Tories only get a weak minority, and even if they somehow manage to cling to power, can you really see Harper sticking around, particularly as a snap election at any time for such a minority could mean he's the head of a fifth campaign? Trudeau is safe even if he only gets eight or ninety seats, because he will have proven he can turn the Liberal's fortunes around. Even in third place with that many seats, he'll have gone through an election campaign and more than doubled the Liberals' seat count, not to mention that in such a situation, the Liberals' support would be needed by whomever forms the government. As to Mulcair. There's nobody that could replace him. Even if he drops to third in a race like this, I think he's secure. Quote
ToadBrother Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 Nah, just until the transition period between Harper and Darth Kenney has started and completed.........say somewhere around ~2019-2021, after the short lived Trudeau government The only way Kenney becomes leader is if the Red Tory wing walks. Not only is he generally considered Harper's chief lieutenant in Cabinet, but he's seen to align with the social conservatives. Look to the second line; like Ambrose and or Raitt. Quote
cybercoma Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 I'm calling Raitt, as the next leader of the CPC. Quote
PIK Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 (edited) 1% difference but it is the conservatives that had the lead. And that could have changed by now and again tomorrow. And Raitt is a good call. Edited September 11, 2015 by PIK Quote Toronto, like a roach motel in the middle of a pretty living room.
ToadBrother Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 1% difference but it is the conservatives that had the lead. And that could have changed by now and again tomorrow. And Raitt is a good call. What does leading even mean now? Unless the Tories can hike themselves up into the mid to high-30s, it means at best a minority, and unless it's a large minority, the Tories likely won't survive the Throne Speech. Lots of time left, and maybe the Tories creep over the line. Maybe the Wizard of Oz will save their bacon in a big way, and not just in a sort of "there's still a pulse" way. Or maybe we spend the last half of the election watching the polls seesaw around because, ultimately, it really is a three way race, and the "winner" will win with only a small plurality. So far as I can tell, anything less than a large minority means the Tories are hosed, no matter what bizarre version of the Westminster system Stephen Harper may be invoking right now. Quote
CITIZEN_2015 Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 (edited) Today's results suggest the polling/media assumption that the refugee issue is a loser for Harper is in error. We should have realized it - despite the recent platitudes on Canadians generosity, we can be selfish towards outsiders. Harper gaining support on the refugee issue? - unfortunately it has the ring of truth. I think some of what you say is true. Edited October 5, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote
BC_chick Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 In the immortal words of Clint Eastwood, "deserve's got nothin' to do with it." I'm not Trudeau's biggest fan (but then again, I'm not overly fond of any of the leaders for various reasons), but I don't see how he is somehow less worthy than Stephen Harper. Both of them largely had the same degree of political and real world experience when they were elected to lead their parties, and while Trudeau has made a lot of rookie mistakes and said some absurd things, it's not hard to find quotes from Harper in his younger days that were intemperate and overly ideological. If anyone "deserves" to be PM, from the notion of background, it would be Mulcair, and certainly he has proven himself probably the best political manager in a generation of Canadian politics. I have serious problems with his policies, and frankly, find the thought of an NDP majority to be by far my least favorite option. I wasn't talking about his inexperience actually, I was talking about his support of the C-51. Neither he nor Harper deserve to be PM when they showed such disregard for the constitution. I suppose I should have qualified my stance, but I've been so vocal about this issue I wrote as though everyone already knows my reasons for disliking Trudeau's LPC. My bad. And I don't agree with everything Mulcair has said and done but overall he's the best suited in my opinion, but like you, I would not want to see an NDP majority either. I would prefer to see them as a minority government first. Quote It's kind of the worst thing that any humans could be doing at this time in human history. Other than that, it's fine." Bill Nye on Alberta Oil Sands
ToadBrother Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 I wasn't talking about his inexperience actually, I was talking about his support of the C-51. Neither he nor Harper deserve to be PM when they showed such disregard for the constitution. I suppose I should have qualified my stance, but I've been so vocal about this issue I wrote as though everyone already knows my reasons for disliking Trudeau's LPC. My bad. And I don't agree with everything Mulcair has said and done but overall he's the best suited in my opinion, but like you, I would not want to see an NDP majority either. I would prefer to see them as a minority government first. I don't think C-51 is as bad as it sounds, though I think Parliamentary oversight would be a great feature to adopt from the US. As to Mulcair, I have enormous problems with the NDP's preferred form of electoral reform. I don't think any MP who does not have a direct constituency should have any business in the HoC, so deeply dislike all party list voting systems. The Senate abolition position is just as populist and just as ludicrous as the Tories' Senate reform position was. Mulcair has absolutely no authority to force the Provinces to do anything, and with the number of soft nationalists in his caucus, I think it would be absolutely insanity to open the Constitution again. The last thing we need is another Mulroney. Quote
Derek 2.0 Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 The only way Kenney becomes leader is if the Red Tory wing walks. Not only is he generally considered Harper's chief lieutenant in Cabinet, but he's seen to align with the social conservatives. Look to the second line; like Ambrose and or Raitt. Then you don't understand the party.......Kenney is a sought after commodity among all the wings, for both policy and fundraising.......I wouldn't consider Kenney anymore or less a social conservative than Ambrose. I like Lisa Raitt, but would question her long term health. I would favor, after Kenney, one of Chris Alexander or Dr Kellie Leitch...... Erin O'Toole would be my personal, biased, selection, but I don't think he has any designs on it..... But, to return to topic, Harper is the current leader despite polling....... Quote
CITIZEN_2015 Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 (edited) I wasn't talking about his inexperience actually, I was talking about his support of the C-51. Neither he nor Harper deserve to be PM when they showed such disregard for the constitution. d Edited October 5, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote
ReeferMadness Posted September 11, 2015 Report Posted September 11, 2015 I'm calling Raitt, as the next leader of the CPC. Bonnie Raitt? That would be awesome. I would enjoy her singing so much more than Steve's. Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
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