Federal Election Polls

[blueblood]

Sure you can, that's what polling does. It would take a major shift to give the CPC anything more than a very slim majority, and that's before Duffy resumes and the debates happen.

I meant slim minority

Just like in 2011?

[Evening Star]

Just like in 2011?

Pretty much every poll showed a CPC lead in the pre-campaign period and during the campaign in 2011, right up to Election Day, going by the Wiki page. (In retrospect, the excitement of NDP supporters at the time seems a bit quaint.) The situation is pretty different now.

Edited July 30, 2015 by Evening Star

[Smallc]

Pretty much every poll showed a CPC lead in the pre-campaign period and during the campaign in 2011, right up to Election Day, going by the Wiki page. (In retrospect, the excitement of NDP supporters at the time seems a bit quaint.) The situation is pretty different now.

At the moment, the Conservatives are tied for 1st. For such a hated party, that seems strange.

[On Guard for Thee]

At the moment, the Conservatives are tied for 1st. For such a hated party, that seems strange.

Not when you consider how the mighty have fallen.

[Smallc]

Not when you consider how the mighty have fallen.

How many Prime Ministers have won a 4th term? Considering where he is in his career, he's doing pretty well.

[Evening Star]

At the moment, the Conservatives are tied for 1st. For such a hated party, that seems strange.

Dunno what to say. I see no difficulty extrapolating a Tory majority from numbers like these:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2011

but it's harder from numbers like these:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_federal_election

Doesn't mean at all that it's impossible but it would require a shift in public opinion.

[Smallc]

Doesn't mean at all that it's impossible but it would require a shift in public opinion.

The Conservatives, according to much theorizing, require only 35% to win a majority with the new electoral seats and boundaries. That's not all that far from where they are, considering that they always tend to poll low, especially this far out.

[Evening Star]

Really? The Tories could win a majority if they get 35% and the NDP gets over 30%? That might turn me into an electoral reform activist. I'd like to see this theorizing.

[Evening Star]

In Ontario in 1990, the NDP won a majority with 37.6% when the Liberals won 32.4%. That's the closest example to that I can think of. Is there one that's closer?

[Smallc]

Really? The Tories could win a majority if they get 35% and the NDP gets over 30%? That might turn me into an electoral reform activist. I'd like to see this theorizing.

I read it somewhere, and a few people have repeated it here. I can't remember where I saw it. It has to do with the efficiency of the tory vote in a lot of suburban ridings. The Conservatives are much better at getting the vote out in places where they need to.

[waldo]

waaaa! Say it ain't so... say the Harper Conservative "Just Not Ready" attack ad hasn't backfired! Well done PMO short-pant tykes, well done!

Conservatives’ Trudeau attack ad is prompting NDP supporters to vote Liberal: Forum Research poll

[Keepitsimple]

waaaa! Say it ain't so... say the Harper Conservative "Just Not Ready" attack ad hasn't backfired! Well done PMO short-pant tykes, well done!

Conservatives’ Trudeau attack ad is prompting NDP supporters to vote Liberal: Forum Research poll

That would be good news for the Liberals.....Lord knows they could use some.

[Smallc]

That would be good news for the Liberals.....Lord knows they could use some.

It would be good news for the Conservatives too. It will split the vote and make theirs even more effieicent.

[Big Guy]

Canada reported that our GDP is in fifth consecutive monthly decline. We are in a, ready for this ...... RECESSION!!!

It will be interesting that our current majority government, who has been in total charge of our economy, will be explaining this.

Will/should this effect the vote?

[BC_chick]

Canada reported that our GDP is in fifth consecutive monthly decline. We are in a, ready for this ...... RECESSION!!!

It will be interesting that our current majority government, who has been in total charge of our economy, will be explaining this.

Will/should this effect the vote?

I'm sure there is a way to blame Paul Martin for it.

[PIK]

With the PS union ad ,with the bleeding heart has backfired IMO. And the ONT government coming out against harper and blaming him for their problems can only help the conservatives.

[CITIZEN_2015]

The only thing going well for the conservatives was the economy and that too has turned soured past six months. Dropping GDP for past 5 months putting us in a technical recession, minimal job creation even net job losses and possible Federal deficit, all would likely take away many long time conservative votes. Other than the economy I don't see anything else which may persuade many voters to vote for the Cons. Ever since they form a majority 4 years ago the country has been hit with scandals, corruptions, some still before the courts not to mention some undemocratic moves by the Cons like early end to debates in the parliament, pushing through legislations,....enough said. TIME FOR A CHANGE as 66% of Canadians have indicated in the recent polls and that is certainly my view.

Edited August 1, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[Keepitsimple]

TIME FOR A CHANGE as 66% of Canadians have indicated in the recent polls and that is certainly my view.

More likely - time to seriously consider your alternatives. 75% of Canadians don't want the Liberals. 67% don't want the NDP. 67% don't want the Conservatives. In just about every modern election except for the Mulroney years, 60% of Canadians didn't vote for the winning party.....yet we still seem to do pretty well.

[CITIZEN_2015]

Yes the Cons form a majority with only 25% of eligible voters and shoved down our throats (the other 75%) their way of conservatism with backward legislations in an undemocratic manner and scandals and corruptions for 4 years. Enough said. TIME FOR A CHANGE. May be not only change of government but also electoral reforms. Canada deserves better.

Edited August 1, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[Keepitsimple]

Yes the Cons form a majority with only 25% of eligible voters and shoved down our throats (the other 75%) their way of conservatism with backward legislations in an undemocratic manner and scandals and corruptions for 4 years. Enough said. TIME FOR A CHANGE. May be not only change of government but also electoral reforms. Canada deserves better.

And I guess that means the NDP and Liberals got 20% or less of eligible voters. What's your point?

[On Guard for Thee]

Yes the Cons form a majority with only 25% of eligible voters and shoved down our throats (the other 75%) their way of conservatism with backward legislations in an undemocratic manner and scandals and corruptions for 4 years. Enough said. TIME FOR A CHANGE. May be not only change of government but also electoral reforms. Canada deserves better.

And Harper has now gone on this crazy ass spending spree. Pu one hand on your wallet, and get ready to mark your X before the debt blossoms even more.

[Smallc]

And Harper has now gone on this crazy ass spending spree. Pu one hand on your wallet, and get ready to mark your X before the debt blossoms even more.

Giving money back to people isn't a spending spree. Not since the 1950s has the federal government taken such a small percentage of the national GDP in tax revenue.

[On Guard for Thee]

Giving money back to people isn't a spending spree. Not since the 1950s has the federal government taken such a small percentage of the national GDP in tax revenue.

And not since WWII have we had such a huge rise in the national debt, such a downturn in employment, such a lengthy string of budget deficits...shall I go on?

[Smallc]

And not since WWII have we had such a huge rise in the national debt, such a downturn in employment, such a lengthy string of budget deficits...shall I go on?

With more falsehoods?

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/canada-deficit/

[On Guard for Thee]

With more falsehoods?

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/canada-deficit/

http://www.pressprogress.ca/6_charts_show_stephen_harper_has_the_worst_economic_record_of_any_prime_minister_since_world_war_ii