Federal Election Polls

waldo · July 21, 2015

That 3 months prior to the election, polls offer little clairvoyance as to the actual result......

so little, apparently... that you repeat emphasized posts of a 0.6% upward shift by the Harper Conservatives! :lol:

Derek 2.0 · July 21, 2015

You obviously completely misread my post because in my first paragraph agreed with you. Thereafter I made my point about trends and how the CPC has been stagnant.

That wasn't the case in previous elections.

I clearly missed your point, but I also remember declarations of a PM Dion and Ignatieff in the media years ago........Myself and the Party are much more comfortable with a stable/stagnant trend 3 months prior to the election then peaks and valleys.........

Derek 2.0 · July 21, 2015

so little, apparently... that you repeat emphasized posts of a 0.6% upward shift by the Harper Conservatives!

Sure, but then, what else would we talk about in a thread on polling, on a board, encompassing Canadian politics?

waldo · July 21, 2015

Myself and the Party are much more comfortable with a stable/stagnant trend 3 months prior to the election then peaks and valleys.........

Sure, but then, what else would we talk about in a thread on polling, on a board, encompassing Canadian politics?

party spokesperson now, hey! We could talk (more) about your go-fetch routines and inability to provide direct quotation to support your statements/claims

.

On Guard for Thee · July 21, 2015

party spokesperson now, hey! We could talk (more) about your go-fetch routines and inability to provide direct quotation to support your statements/claims

.

"Myself and the party"...you heard it here first folks. Perhaps pining to become Harper 2.0!

Derek 2.0 · July 21, 2015

party spokesperson now, hey! We could talk (more) about your go-fetch routines and inability to provide direct quotation to support your statements/claims

.

Not at all, but being a member of the party, and privy to the 2015 roadmap, I have far more confidence in returning a majority Government this Fall, than obtaining a majority mandate, months prior, to the 2011 election..........~170-180 seat Tory Majority, you heard it here first

On Guard for Thee · July 21, 2015

Not at all, but being a member of the party, and privy to the 2015 roadmap, I have far more confidence in returning a majority Government this Fall, than obtaining a majority mandate, months prior, to the 2011 election..........~170-180 seat Tory Majority, you heard it here first

Now that is hilarious. We will remind you of course of what we heard here first when Harper and the CPC are sent back into the doldrums in October.

Oh yeah, forgot... <_< :mellow: :wacko: :rolleyes: whatever!

Edited July 21, 2015 by On Guard for Thee

Evening Star · July 22, 2015

NDP cleared of wrongdoing related to mass mailouts in 2013 byelections:

http://globalnews.ca/news/2123242/elections-commissioner-clears-ndp-in-2013-byelection-mailings/

Vancouver King · July 23, 2015

NDP cleared of wrongdoing related to mass mailouts in 2013 byelections:

http://globalnews.ca/news/2123242/elections-commissioner-clears-ndp-in-2013-byelection-mailings/

... which throws into question the believability of those kangaroo charges from an anti-NDP stacked parliamentary committee.

Boges · July 24, 2015

http://m.torontosun.com/2015/07/24/tories-take-huge-lead-in-latest-poll

Outlier right?

Evening Star · July 24, 2015

Wow.

waldo · July 24, 2015

http://m.torontosun.com/2015/07/24/tories-take-huge-lead-in-latest-poll

Outlier right?

can votes be bought... so easily? Why so gun-shy with a preemptive outlier suggestion? :lol: As a company, Mainstreet is a relative "noob" in the midst of other longer established companies doing national polling... and it's particular methodology of "demon-dialing" has had some scrutiny, particularly when it recently went west to Alberta with polling results that never factored the NDP as a player, while shifting forecast wins between the PCs and the Wildrose. Boges... don't be so uncertain... be loud and proud of Harper Conservative vote-buying!

WWWTT · July 24, 2015

And I'm not, 3 months from the election, polls mean little, other than as a discussion point on a political web forum.........

Ya I doubt that!

WWWTT

WWWTT · July 24, 2015

~3 months prior to the 2011 election, EKOS polled the Tories at ~32%, the Liberals at ~27% and the NDP at ~15%............The Tories won with over 39%

Lots of stuff has happened in the past.

But the conservatives never had a serious opponent in the past had they?

Big difference is that they do now!

Hence the second place performance.

Don't expect a past repeat performance.

WWWTT

Bryan · July 24, 2015

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/2015/07/24/conservative-christmas-in-july/

5147.... that's a big sample.

Vancouver King · July 24, 2015

Nanos released Wed. has it:

NDP 31.4

Con 30.8

Lib 26.8

These results are pre-"Christmas in July".

On Guard for Thee · July 24, 2015

can votes be bought... so easily? Why so gun-shy with a preemptive outlier suggestion? As a company, Mainstreet is a relative "noob" in the midst of other longer established companies doing national polling... and it's particular methodology of "demon-dialing" has had some scrutiny, particularly when it recently went west to Alberta with polling results that never factored the NDP as a player, while shifting forecast wins between the PCs and the Wildrose. Boges... don't be so uncertain... be loud and proud of Harper Conservative vote-buying!

When people figure out how much of the bribe they actually get to keep, the Xmas in July thing will wear off pretty quick I reckon.

Smallc · July 24, 2015

Yes, I would imagine you would reckon that. The truth is, for low income people, this is a massive increase in money every month. For the rich, it isn't much of a change. It's not regressive because of the changes that were made with the increase in payments.

WWWTT · July 24, 2015

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/2015/07/24/conservative-christmas-in-july/

5147.... that's a big sample.

When people figure out how much of the bribe they actually get to keep, the Xmas in July thing will wear off pretty quick I reckon.

Beware of these big swings!

WWWTT

overthere · July 24, 2015

todays paper had Cons at 38% among decided voters.

waldo · July 24, 2015

per CBC Poll Tracker, the 3 most recent polls... not yet factored into an (the next) aggregate poll analysis:

but hey now... I sure don't see the same media flurry/splash for the Forum poll as being given for the Mainstreet poll - go figure... conservative media, donchaKnow!

Edited July 24, 2015 by waldo

WWWTT · July 24, 2015

but hey now... I sure don't see the same media flurry/splash for the Forum poll as being given for the Mainstreet poll - go figure... conservative media, donchaKnow!

Yep

Look what I pasted:

Maggi also said federal Conservatives are up in Ontario because of dislike of provincial Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne's sex-ed curriculum changes.

And many "blue Liberals," Maggi said, have seen Mulcair's rise in the polls and, because they are more worried about an NDP win than a Liberal loss, are ready to vote for Harper.

This is something that a die hard conservative would say, so take it with a huge grain of salt with the poll it came from!

WWWTT

Keepitsimple · July 24, 2015

todays paper had Cons at 38% among decided voters.

I'll believe there's been a turnaround when we see the next couple of polls - but a sample size of over 5000 is pretty good.......

waldo · July 24, 2015

I'll believe there's been a turnaround when we see the next couple of polls - but a sample size of over 5000 is pretty good.......

"demon dialing"!... and the relatively unproven Mainstreet IVR methodology

Evening Star · July 25, 2015

Someone on another board has raised a valid doubt about the Mainstreet poll:

Maggi of Mainstreet writes that those who have been following the UCCB very closely are "more likely to vote Conservative". CPC support among this group is given as 38% (while it is 23% among those who are not aware of the cheques). It seems unlikely, by simple mathematics, that the overall national support for the CPC could be identical to the level of CPC support among a sub-group that is identified as 'more likely to vote Conservative'. This suggests the possibility that a number had been copied incorrectly somewhere.

Edited July 25, 2015 by Evening Star