Federal Election Polls

[Smallc]

Again, the attack ads are not why Trudeau slipped in the polls. His direct support of bill c-51 is why he slipped in the polls. The attack ads really haven't accomplished amything but annoy people.

He was slipping long before that.

[Canada_First]

Politics is a dirty game. All politicians are scumbags. We try to pick the guy who will steal from us the least.

[Bryan]

The attack ads really haven't accomplished amything but annoy people.

People have been saying that since 2004. They have been wrong every single time. When you point out exactly what someone else said, in their own words (which is all any of the Conservative "attack" ads have done), people do pay attention and make a decision whether they agree with it or not.

[On Guard for Thee]

The beheading video, aside from being quite possibly in contravention of their own C51, is totally over the top and takes the whole campaign ad program to an all time low. Most people found it offensive and it will not only fail like the hes not ready ads,it will come back to bite them.

[Keepitsimple]

The beheading video, aside from being quite possibly in contravention of their own C51, is totally over the top and takes the whole campaign ad program to an all time low. Most people found it offensive and it will not only fail like the hes not ready ads,it will come back to bite them.

There was no "beheading" video. There was a picture of some captives in orange suits - not as bad as what was shown on the networks like CBC - but clear enough to invoke the ominousness of it all. If people find the CBC pictures squeamish - good - because that's what these monsters are all about - and why we are joined with our allies in doing our part, no matter how mall that might be - to help fight this scourge on humanity.

Edited July 10, 2015 by Keepitsimple

[On Guard for Thee]

There was no "beheading" video. There was a picture of some captives in orange suits - not as bad as what was shown on the networks like CBC - but clear enough to invoke the ominousness of it all. If people find the CBC pictures squeamish - good - because that's what these monsters are all about - and why we are joined with our allies in doing our part, no matter how mall that might be - to help fight this scourge on humanity.

It was ISIS own video, hence the infraction of C 51, and it clearly shows Harpers desperation at where he is in the polls.

[Vancouver King]

Today's bad news installment for Conservatives: (your choice)

Economy sheds another 6,500 jobs in June as reported by Statistics Canada,

Bloomberg suggests today Conservative budget is in deficit with IMF estimate of 1.5 % Canadian growth.

[Boges]

Today's bad news installment for Conservatives: (your choice)

Economy sheds another 6,500 jobs in June as reported by Statistics Canada,

Bloomberg suggests today Conservative budget is in deficit with IMF estimate of 1.5 % Canadian growth.

That was less than estimated and the lost jobs were part time job. Same kind of jobs that Liberals scoff at when they're created.

[Boges]

Forum has bad news for JT.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/07/10/poll-shows-justin-trudeaus-liberals-slipping-further-behind.html

The federal Liberals are now trailing in third place behind the NDP and Conservatives who are tied for the lead in voter support, according to a new Forum Research poll.

The latest results, taken from a random sampling of 1,200 Canadian voters show the Conservatives and New Democrats tied at 32 per cent support each.

About one-quarter would vote Liberal (26 per cent) if a federal election was held today, the poll suggests.

If these results are projected onto a 338-seat House of Commons, the Conservatives would seize a minority government of 155 seats, 15 short of a majority, according to Forum.

The NDP would grab 120 seats, the Liberals 59, Forum says.

In tracking the race between the three leading parties, Forum results in the past year have shown the Liberals under Justin Trudeau go from being comfortably out front, to a three-way tie, to the current third-place position.

The federal election is set for Oct. 19.

[Evening Star]

That suggests that the CPC vote might be more efficient than the NDP vote.

[Bryan]

Economy sheds another 6,500 jobs in June as reported by Statistics Canada

Better than the economists were predicting. Considering just how badly the Ontario govt is tanking their economy, the serious economic issues in Europe and China, and that oil hasn't gone back up over $60 yet, we're doing remarkably well.

Bloomberg suggests today Conservative budget is in deficit with IMF estimate of 1.5 % Canadian growth.

They've grossly exaggerated the economic picture for Canada for going on 10 years now, wouldn't expect them to stop now.

Meanwhile, in the real world:

The best recession ever

[On Guard for Thee]

Meanwhile in other parts of the real.

http://www.thestar.com/business/economy/2015/07/06/canada-in-recession-rate-cut-likely-td.html

No wonder people are buying houses, pretty soon banks will be paying you to grab a mortgage.

[Boges]

Meanwhile in other parts of the real.

http://www.thestar.com/business/economy/2015/07/06/canada-in-recession-rate-cut-likely-td.html

No wonder people are buying houses, pretty soon banks will be paying you to grab a mortgage.

Not with Real Estate prices the way they are.

[Vancouver King]

Latest Abacus poll figures:

NDP - 32

Cons -29

Libs - 27

Bloq - 6

Grns - 6

With exactly 100 days left until voting day, at some point all the bad news must take a toll on Conservative numbers.

Edited July 10, 2015 by Vancouver King

[Derek 2.0]

I'm not the slightest bit worried, and once the actual campaign starts, like has happened in the last several elections, the Tories will climb again very slowly, so slowly that some in the MSM might even suggest the NDP or Liberals (Which ever one is leading at that point) won't form Government, as the Tories will then look like they will form a modest minority.......and then, on October 20th, we'll have another Tory Majority (in the 170-180 seat range).....

"Federal Conservative surge":

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1200 Canadian voters, exactly equal proportions, one third each, will vote for the New Democrats or the Conservatives (32% each) if a federal election were held today. Fewer, about one quarter, would vote Liberal (26%). These findings represent stability for the NDP, who led the poll last week at one third of the votes (32%), but a sharp increase in voting preference for the Conservatives (from 27%).

And just wait until the NDP is put under the microscope............As I've said countless times, there will be a Conservative Majority Government this Fall.

[Derek 2.0]

That suggests that the CPC vote might be more efficient than the NDP vote.

It is, we could get a slim, skin of the teeth majority with ~35% of the vote, where as the other require numbers in the higher 30s..........

[Keepitsimple]

It was ISIS own video, hence the infraction of C 51, and it clearly shows Harpers desperation at where he is in the polls.

Repeating your falsehoods over and over doesn't make them anywhere closer to being true. The Conservative ad did not show an ISIS video......it showed a single "still" picture - much tamer than the networks showed. There is enough REAL fodder for your anti-Harper rants without fabrications. Whether or not one likes that particular ad is open to honest opinion - but hey - all you seem to be capable of is exaggerated gibberish.

[On Guard for Thee]

Repeating your falsehoods over and over doesn't make them anywhere closer to being true. The Conservative ad did not show an ISIS video......it showed a single "still" picture - much tamer than the networks showed. There is enough REAL fodder for your anti-Harper rants without fabrications. Whether or not one likes that particular ad is open to honest opinion - but hey - all you seem to be capable of is exaggerated gibberish.

The screen shots in the ad are taken directly from ISIS video, as is the background music. But carry on with your gibberish.

[BC_chick]

It is, we could get a slim, skin of the teeth majority with ~35% of the vote, where as the other require numbers in the higher 30s..........

Conversely, Conservatives need a majority to get anything done whereas NDP and LPC have a great history of accomplishing things when working together.

In other words, you pretty much need a conservative majority but for either of the other two parties a miniroty government is good enough.

[Derek 2.0]

Conversely, Conservatives need a majority to get anything done whereas NDP and LPC have a great history of accomplishing things when working together.

In other words, you pretty much need a conservative majority but for either of the other two parties a miniroty government is good enough.

Though I don't we will receive another majority mandate, in the previous Tory minorities, plenty was done with namely the support of the Liberals.......Now this time, -IF-, the Tories return with a minority, it will depend on the size.......I don't doubt if only ~10 seats separated the Tories and the NDP/Liberals, the Government would be brought down within months or even weeks, inversely, a ~150+ seat minority would see the Tories govern for 18 months+ until the next election (With a Tory and Liberal leadership change)

Now the key factor is what place the Liberals and NDP finish.........The Liberal party, or a good part of it, won't govern as junior partner to the NDP, fore that will result in two things. First, the Liberal party would no longer have any political relevance (Like the British Liberals), second, its more likely that the Red Tories found with the LPC would prop up a Tory minority Government (if they had the numbers) before joining with the NDP......Now a Liberal led coalition or Government, propped up by the NDP, is possible......

But, all bets are off if either the Liberals or NDP also need the Bloc to govern.........

[On Guard for Thee]

Though I don't we will receive another majority mandate, in the previous Tory minorities, plenty was done with namely the support of the Liberals.......Now this time, -IF-, the Tories return with a minority, it will depend on the size.......I don't doubt if only ~10 seats separated the Tories and the NDP/Liberals, the Government would be brought down within months or even weeks, inversely, a ~150+ seat minority would see the Tories govern for 18 months+ until the next election (With a Tory and Liberal leadership change)

Now the key factor is what place the Liberals and NDP finish.........The Liberal party, or a good part of it, won't govern as junior partner to the NDP, fore that will result in two things. First, the Liberal party would no longer have any political relevance (Like the British Liberals), second, its more likely that the Red Tories found with the LPC would prop up a Tory minority Government (if they had the numbers) before joining with the NDP......Now a Liberal led coalition or Government, propped up by the NDP, is possible......

But, all bets are off if either the Liberals or NDP also need the Bloc to govern.........

No, you wont be getting anything near a majority mandate. It will b the NDP with possibly the other 2 tied for second place, although the polls keep dropping both in terms of likely seats and job approval...Harper well down in third. The CPC will be basically set back to the doldrums once Mulcair and Trudeau work out how to dissect C 51 and get rid of the junk in it.

[Keepitsimple]

The screen shots in the ad are taken directly from ISIS video, as is the background music. But carry on with your gibberish.

Wrong again. The images were taken from standard Canadian network news coverage. But at least you're now admitting it's not a video. You're making progress.

[Evening Star]

Though I don't we will receive another majority mandate, in the previous Tory minorities, plenty was done with namely the support of the Liberals.......Now this time, -IF-, the Tories return with a minority, it will depend on the size.......I don't doubt if only ~10 seats separated the Tories and the NDP/Liberals, the Government would be brought down within months or even weeks, inversely, a ~150+ seat minority would see the Tories govern for 18 months+ until the next election (With a Tory and Liberal leadership change)

Now the key factor is what place the Liberals and NDP finish.........The Liberal party, or a good part of it, won't govern as junior partner to the NDP, fore that will result in two things. First, the Liberal party would no longer have any political relevance (Like the British Liberals), second, its more likely that the Red Tories found with the LPC would prop up a Tory minority Government (if they had the numbers) before joining with the NDP......Now a Liberal led coalition or Government, propped up by the NDP, is possible......

Agree with most of this. Anyone who thinks there is some sort of alliance between the Liberals and NDP is deluding themselves imo.

[On Guard for Thee]

Wrong again. The images were taken from standard Canadian network news coverage. But at least you're now admitting it's not a video. You're making progress.

So I guess you are under some illusion as to where that news video came from. It came from ISIS hence the C 51 connection.

[Bryan]

So I guess you are under some illusion as to where that news video came from. It came from ISIS hence the C 51 connection.

No C-51 connection, never was one. The only people who think so are the ones who didn't understand C-51 in the first place, and were blatantly misinforming others about it.