Federal Election Polls

[eyeball]

The "don't worry be happy" assumption that Harper is just going to waltz into a throne speech, be defeated and the GG is going to call on the Liberals and NDP to form a new government is an unnecessary (and dangerous) risk.

OTOH, no risk no reward.

Perhaps a big stinky transition of power would help focus attention on the need for not just electoral reforms but also some parliamentary reforms and maybe even some in the PMO.

[ToadBrother]

OTOH, no risk no reward.

Perhaps a big stinky transition of power would help focus attention on the need for not just electoral reforms but also some parliamentary reforms and maybe even some in the PMO.

Exactly. And really, even in a diminished capacity, an incumbent Tory government giving the Throne Speech a shot costs them very little. If they're defeated, they can publicly decry the vile usurpers, and meanwhile they can sort out their leadership while the country is captivated by how a Liberal minority or Liberal-NDP coalition tries to govern.

Again, I'm not saying it will happen. First of all, I don't think the Tories will win a plurality. But if they do, and Harper very quickly exits the scene, the Tories can at least try to negotiate with the NDP.

And what's wrong with that? A hung parliament is one where whoever governs is going to have to do so by trying to negotiate to gain support. Sure, it will deprive the Liberals of power, and if you're a Liberal supporter that sucks, but the fact is that the incumbent government has first right to try to keep the confidence of Parliament.

The only problem with my thought experiment is who would be the interim leader. We don't know how many cabinet ministers are going to survive, and I haven't tracked their races, though I understand both Oliver and Alexander are in trouble. Would the Tories want to go with an interim leader who had a good shot at being elected leader? If that's the case then I would expect the likes of Kenney, Raitt and Ambrose to throw in their hat (presuming they win their seats). Or would they want a caretaker who would not make a bid. In that case there's probably a few good Tory MPs who could create a sort of caretaker ministry empowered to broker a deal with the NDP.

[ReeferMadness]

You are thinking harper has more power than he actually has. If caucus says hes done, harper has no choice but to throw in the towel or completely lose the confidence of mps.

Yeah. The caucus will say Harper is out as soon as Harper allows them to speak.

[blueblood]

Exactly. And really, even in a diminished capacity, an incumbent Tory government giving the Throne Speech a shot costs them very little. If they're defeated, they can publicly decry the vile usurpers, and meanwhile they can sort out their leadership while the country is captivated by how a Liberal minority or Liberal-NDP coalition tries to govern.

Again, I'm not saying it will happen. First of all, I don't think the Tories will win a plurality. But if they do, and Harper very quickly exits the scene, the Tories can at least try to negotiate with the NDP.

And what's wrong with that? A hung parliament is one where whoever governs is going to have to do so by trying to negotiate to gain support. Sure, it will deprive the Liberals of power, and if you're a Liberal supporter that sucks, but the fact is that the incumbent government has first right to try to keep the confidence of Parliament.

The only problem with my thought experiment is who would be the interim leader. We don't know how many cabinet ministers are going to survive, and I haven't tracked their races, though I understand both Oliver and Alexander are in trouble. Would the Tories want to go with an interim leader who had a good shot at being elected leader? If that's the case then I would expect the likes of Kenney, Raitt and Ambrose to throw in their hat (presuming they win their seats). Or would they want a caretaker who would not make a bid. In that case there's probably a few good Tory MPs who could create a sort of caretaker ministry empowered to broker a deal with the NDP.

They may be able to do a give and take with the ndp on balanced budgets in exchange for something.

However, the ndp hitched their horse to the TPP. Mulcair would look pretty bad to his supporters by caving on that biggie. Even though everybody knows the TPP is in the benefit of the country.

I cant see ambrose being leader even though she was there a while, shes been sacked from multiple cabinet posts.

[CITIZEN_2015]

Btw, not sure if it has been posted anywhere but Globe and Mail today endorsed the conservative re-election but WITHOUT Harper to be Prime Minister!!!!!!!. I am not joking or exaggerating and today is not April 1st lol. Like they say Harper should win a government and then resign!!!!!. I read somewhere else that 50% of Canadians absolutely detest Harper.

Edited October 16, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[blueblood]

Yeah. The caucus will say Harper is out as soon as Harper allows them to speak.

Harper is only given as much power as caucus lets him have. If caucus decides harper has had enough, then hes out of there

[blueblood]

Btw, not sure if it has been posted anywhere but Globe and Mail today endorsed the conservative re-election but WITHOUT Harper to be Prime Minister!!!!!!!. I am not joking or exaggerating and today is not April 1st lol. Like they say Harper should win a government and then resign!!!!!. I read somewhere else that 50% of Canadians absolutely detest Harper.

Something similar happened to chretien...

[ReeferMadness]

I didn't say it was a probable outcome, I'm saying it's a possible outcome. And quite frankly, no matter what happens, if the Tories end up with a small plurality at around 120-130 seats, that means the Tories have shed massive amounts of support. That means Harper is done no matter what.

And who is going to toss him? He's a one man show. All the people with any credibility in that party have left. And regardless of what you or I or the G&M think, there are still a HUGE number of Harper fans out there who are still in denial about just how bad he is. Look at the comments in this forum.

I'll be happy when I see him beaten and resigned as leader. Not until.

Edited October 16, 2015 by ReeferMadness

[ReeferMadness]

Harper is only given as much power as caucus lets him have. If caucus decides harper has had enough, then hes out of there

Completely delusional. Unlike Chretien's situation, there is nobody waiting in the wings. The Conservatives know that when Harper leaves, they're going to have to go through a rebuilding phase.

[blueblood]

Completely delusional. Unlike Chretien's situation, there is nobody waiting in the wings. The Conservatives know that when Harper leaves, they're going to have to go through a rebuilding phase.

Harper is just one guy. Remember that in 06 he had to essentially attempt a makeover to be palatable to canadians and is for all accounts a back room guy out in the open. The tories will find another and put all sorts of pomp and curcumstance to make him or her look palatable as a leader.

[cybercoma]

The Liberals are on track to nearly double their support from the last election (18.9% -> ~35%). Meanwhile the Conservatives have lost around 25% of their support (39.6% -> ~ 30%). The NDP also appears to have lost over 25% of their support (30.6% -> ~22%).

[CITIZEN_2015]

Are there going to be more polls over the weekend? I seem t recall a law banning polls 2 days or so before the election. Am I correct? I am interested to see how the vote intentions will be affected by Gagnier thing. Nanos today does not fully reflect that (it was October 13, 14 and 15 so only one day of the three days is after the Gagnier thing and even so it saw support for liberals dropped by 0.6% and gap narrowed from 7.7% to under 6%. Yes i do know error margin of 2.8% but still quite a fall considering only a third affected by Gagnier).

[ToadBrother]

Harper is just one guy. Remember that in 06 he had to essentially attempt a makeover to be palatable to canadians and is for all accounts a back room guy out in the open. The tories will find another and put all sorts of pomp and curcumstance to make him or her look palatable as a leader.

In my hypothesis, you just appoint a nondescript MP, probably someone who is in cabinet, appoint them as temporary leader and temporary PM, survive the Throne Speech if you can. If they survive the Throne Speech, they recess quickly (there's no need for any more supply to be voted on before the spring) call a leadership convention for the end of January or into February, and when Parliament returns, you have a new leader and a new PM and see if you can move on.

[ReeferMadness]

OTOH, no risk no reward.

Perhaps a big stinky transition of power would help focus attention on the need for not just electoral reforms but also some parliamentary reforms and maybe even some in the PMO.

Not worth the risk.

It's more likely that a stinky transition of power would cause a call for another "stable majority government". Ugh.

[CITIZEN_2015]

CTV based on Nanos today for Preferred Prime Minister

Trudeau - 34.6% (this has been the largest approval/preferred rate for Trudeau ever I remember)

Harper - 30% (still?? unbelievable!!!!!).

Mulcair - 19.3% (not sure exact number but under 20%).

Trudeau the preferred Prime Minister of Canada by Canadians will very likely be the Prime Minister of Canada next Tuesday.

Edited October 16, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[ReeferMadness]

Harper - 30% (still?? unbelievable!!!!!).

This is why the caucus won't stand up to Harper. His base is completely tone deaf to the reality of what he's done. The people who support Harper could read the G&M editorial and only pay attention to the bit about endorsing the Conservatives; and the write the rest off to "left wing liberal media bias".

[ToadBrother]

This is why the caucus won't stand up to Harper. His base is completely tone deaf to the reality of what he's done. The people who support Harper could read the G&M editorial and only pay attention to the bit about endorsing the Conservatives; and the write the rest off to "left wing liberal media bias".

I think you're very wrong. I think when the ballots are counted, and the Tories' 2011 Ontario surge is left dead on the floor, the party will do what all political parties, and that is look for someone to blame. Inevitably it is the leader. I think Harper has lost pretty much all his political capital at this point. The Tories clung to him, perhaps out of fear that someone different might make it worse, but even on this board the more obviously pro-Tory posters are not exactly disguising their desire for the party to be lead by someone else.

Whatever happens now, the Tories have lost a lot of seats. They will have lost cabinet ministers, either in the months before the election, or as a result of defeat in their ridings. Even with a plurality, the Tories are badly wounded, and whatever power Harper held over them will have evaporated. From my vantage, I'd say Harper's power has already evaporated, and whatever happens after the 19th, he will not be leading the Tories into another election.

And really, look at the man. He's lost his energy, his will to fight on. His campaign events are tired and leaden affairs, if anonymous insider stories are true, he is withdrawn and moody. I think as much as the Tories are no longer under his spell, he weeks ago gave up.

[ReeferMadness]

I think you're very wrong. I think when the ballots are counted, and the Tories' 2011 Ontario surge is left dead on the floor, the party will do what all political parties, and that is look for someone to blame. Inevitably it is the leader. I think Harper has lost pretty much all his political capital at this point. The Tories clung to him, perhaps out of fear that someone different might make it worse, but even on this board the more obviously pro-Tory posters are not exactly disguising their desire for the party to be lead by someone else.

If he loses, he's gone no doubt. If he gets a plurality and he resigns, his poorly informed (and none too bright) base will go ape shit. Most of them think they elect a PM and they won't be happy with someone getting off the bench and being PM suddenly. He's in a much stronger position than Chretien because there's nobody else ATM. Had McKay or someone else with some presence hung around, maybe. But there's nobody.

It might be that he leaves in a couple of years - but he could do a lot of damage between now and then. The guy's like Freddie Krueger.

[ToadBrother]

If he loses, he's gone no doubt. If he gets a plurality and he resigns, his poorly informed (and none too bright) base will go ape shit. Most of them think they elect a PM and they won't be happy with someone getting off the bench and being PM suddenly. He's in a much stronger position than Chretien because there's nobody else ATM. Had McKay or someone else with some presence hung around, maybe. But there's nobody.

It might be that he leaves in a couple of years - but he could do a lot of damage between now and then. The guy's like Freddie Krueger.

My point is that I think even the Tory base is abandoning him. They have to show unity now, obviously, but once the full extent of their losses become clear, even with some sort of a plurality, Harper is finished. His base, as you put it, will be setting up the gallows.

[ReeferMadness]

My point is that I think even the Tory base is abandoning him. They have to show unity now, obviously, but once the full extent of their losses become clear, even with some sort of a plurality, Harper is finished. His base, as you put it, will be setting up the gallows.

And if the Tory base is abandoning him, who are the 30% of people who still think he'd make the best PM?

[ToadBrother]

And if the Tory base is abandoning him, who are the 30% of people who still think he'd make the best PM?

The people who think Trudeau would make the worst PM.

[CITIZEN_2015]

ANGUS REID which ended up to be the closest and most accurate past two elections has just released likely its last poll:

Liberals - 35%

conservatives - 31%

NDP - 22%

http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2015.10.15-Final-Horserace.pdf

They were closest but still underestimated conservative vote by 3% if I recall correctly so conservatives can take 33% of votes and since they are more efficient in spite of less popular vote may win more seats and form a minority government (God forbid). SO go out and vote and vote for the party who is the closest in your riding competing with the conservative candidate if you have had enough of Harper and the vicious corrupt scandalist conservative party in power. Do not become overconfident of a victory. A vote division between NDP and Liberals may elect another conservative government for years to come as it happened in 2011.

Edited October 16, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[Hydraboss]

...who are the 30% of people who still think he'd make the best PM?

Every right leaning voter in Canada. Even as bad as he is (and that's considerable), he's miles ahead of the rest of them.

[ToadBrother]

Every right leaning voter in Canada. Even as bad as he is (and that's considerable), he's miles ahead of the rest of them.

I think there's growing evidence that Trudeau may actually be eating into the Conservative base now. That's why I think the whole "Gagnier scandal" was probably leaked by the Tories, to show their pro-oil street cred. Sure, they'll lose some cranky NDPers, but it may be a calculated ploy to make a bid for fence-sitting Tory supporters.

[blueblood]

And if the Tory base is abandoning him, who are the 30% of people who still think he'd make the best PM?

We are voting for the party. Leaders are just a cog in the machine and are quite expendable.