Hydraboss Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 "Reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated" For all the polls showing the LPC in the lead, I still have to wonder if the CPC efficiency will come into play even more than usual. The minute you're in the lead, voters for your opposition seem to get off their collective butts - in Canada we're very good at voting against people. Quote "racist, intolerant, small-minded bigot" - AND APPARENTLY A SOCIALIST (2010) (2015)Economic Left/Right: 8.38 3.38 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 3.13 -1.23
Smallc Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 For all the polls showing the LPC in the lead, I still have to wonder if the CPC efficiency will come into play even more than usual. The minute you're in the lead, voters for your opposition seem to get off their collective butts - in Canada we're very good at voting against people. With a low NDP vote that efficiency suddenly disappears. Quote
Hydraboss Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 I've got to think that with the "threat" of the Liberals taking power, the number of conservatives that normally don't bother to vote might reduce. I know several people that always find an excuse for why they didn't cast a ballot, and maybe I'm just hopeful that this might be enough to get them to do their duty. Quote "racist, intolerant, small-minded bigot" - AND APPARENTLY A SOCIALIST (2010) (2015)Economic Left/Right: 8.38 3.38 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 3.13 -1.23
Smeelious Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 I've got to think that with the "threat" of the Liberals taking power, the number of conservatives that normally don't bother to vote might reduce. I know several people that always find an excuse for why they didn't cast a ballot, and maybe I'm just hopeful that this might be enough to get them to do their duty. Yup. Whatever the reason more people voting is a good thing. Quote
SpankyMcFarland Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 I've got to think that with the "threat" of the Liberals taking power, the number of conservatives that normally don't bother to vote might reduce. I know several people that always find an excuse for why they didn't cast a ballot, and maybe I'm just hopeful that this might be enough to get them to do their duty. More of them vote, anyway, so I'd say their max vote is lower. Quote
Hydraboss Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 I really wonder about that. How reliable are the numbers that show x% of conservatives vote? Quote "racist, intolerant, small-minded bigot" - AND APPARENTLY A SOCIALIST (2010) (2015)Economic Left/Right: 8.38 3.38 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 3.13 -1.23
Big Guy Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 "Reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated" - Stephen Harper I think that Harper and many other Canadians feel that he has done a very good job. The change in leadership is not seen as a defeat but an end to a career. If you lead a party to a lesser position of power than it was, then it is time to step down. Even if he squeezes out a majority it would still be time to step aside. Quote Note - For those expecting a response from Big Guy: I generally do not read or respond to posts longer then 300 words nor to parsed comments.
Vancouver King Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 Dream on, Harperites. You just can't appreciate the ugliness of your nine year authoritarian regime. Quote When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one. ...... Lord Lytton
Hydraboss Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 No, we can't. It hasn't been that damn bad. You may choose to breathlessly rant about the "horror" of Harper's time in office but it won't make it any more true than the original anti-CPC ads that have been run. Soldiers. In our streets. With guns. Quote "racist, intolerant, small-minded bigot" - AND APPARENTLY A SOCIALIST (2010) (2015)Economic Left/Right: 8.38 3.38 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 3.13 -1.23
ToadBrother Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 No, we can't. It hasn't been that damn bad. You may choose to breathlessly rant about the "horror" of Harper's time in office but it won't make it any more true than the original anti-CPC ads that have been run. Soldiers. In our streets. With guns. Perhaps the policies aren't the problem. Perhaps it is the nature of this government; secretive, overly-centralized, dismissive of even its caucus, that is the problem. You want to know the problem with this government; it's that it is Harper's government, and not a Conservative governemnt at all. It is defined by whatever the PM says it is, and he has so engineered the machinery of government so that every important decision is not only reviewed in the PMO, but appears to flow from it. By all accounts that's why Baird left, because Harper had decided he was going to be the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Baird was completely sidelined. The fundamental problem with the Harper regime isn't that the public doesn't trust it, it's that it doesn't even trust itself. Quote
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 No polls today . Nothing to entertain us today but hopefully tomorrow Nanos 6:00 am poll will be released. Quote
SpankyMcFarland Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 The biggest problem is the age of the government. It is really time for change. We'll see if the next crowd can do anything to make Parliament relevant again, if we get a 'next crowd'. They will have their work cut out for them. The temptations are all the other way. Quote
Vancouver King Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 No polls today . Nothing to entertain us today but hopefully tomorrow Nanos 6:00 am poll will be released. I found this entertaining: Robert Fife of CTV is usually a dependable source of 'inside' news. Last night on the national news he reported recriminations and the blame game has already begun in Conservative campaign ranks. Apparently high ranking Tories report many cabinet names have now been written off including Joe Oliver, Chris Alexander and Bernard Valcourt. He also reported the boss has become particularly depressed in the past few days - snapping at campaign volunteers and beside himself that Trudeau appears ready to seal his fate. Quote When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one. ...... Lord Lytton
ToadBrother Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 I found this entertaining: Robert Fife of CTV is usually a dependable source of 'inside' news. Last night on the national news he reported recriminations and the blame game has already begun in Conservative campaign ranks. Apparently high ranking Tories report many cabinet names have now been written off including Joe Oliver, Chris Alexander and Bernard Valcourt. He also reported the boss has become particularly depressed in the past few days - snapping at campaign volunteers and beside himself that Trudeau appears ready to seal his fate. I'm not going to hold that against Harper. I've read enough tales of governing parties going down the tubes to know that, whatever you may think of the parties in question, defeat is a terrible thing. Quote
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 (edited) I found this entertaining: Robert Fife of CTV is usually a dependable source of 'inside' news. Last night on the national news he reported recriminations and the blame game has already begun in Conservative campaign ranks. Apparently high ranking Tories report many cabinet names have now been written off including Joe Oliver, Chris Alexander and Bernard Valcourt. He also reported the boss has become particularly depressed in the past few days - snapping at campaign volunteers and beside himself that Trudeau appears ready to seal his fate. Indeed very entertaining to witness as every day passes that a campaign of deceits and divisions and fear monger and attacks and negativity is not paying off for a party who uses race and religion to classify and divide Canadians and conquer has failed to achieve its intended evil goal. In contrast large crowd is gathering for Trudeau everywhere that he goes because of his kind and passionate and caring platform and personality which is exactly what reflect long standing Canadian values. God bless Canada and Long live those who stand guard for Canada to remain the kind and peace loving compassionate country it has always been. Edited October 13, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote
ToadBrother Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 Environics has some pretty interesting polls out on the Ottawa suburban ridings: https://s3.amazonaws.com/leadnow/Environics-leadnow-oct-13-15.pdf One that really blows my mind is Kanata-Carleton, where the Tories won with 54% of the vote, the Liberals down at 26%, and the NDP down at 15%. In the Environics' poll, it shows the Liberals dominating at 50% among decided voters, the Tories down to 30%, and the NDP having literally shrunk to nearly half its 2011 support at just 8%. Peterborough-Kawartha is another one, with the Liberals dominating at 46%, where they received just 21% in the last election, and the Tories have dropped from the 2011 of 50% down to 34%, and the NDP again dropping, this time from the 2011 result of 25% to just 17%. These kinds of polls tell us two things; that the Tories are bleeding badly in Ontario, and that there does seem to be something to the Anybody But Harper movement, as it sure does look like a lot of NDP voters are preparing to vote Liberal. Quote
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 (edited) Oh I found a poll published TODAY. In fact just out by Global News Ipsos Reid: Liberals Lead of 6% confirmed by another source other than Nanos - Yahooooooooooo Liberals now at 37% conservatives stuck at 31% NDP at 24% The Liberals were the only party trending upwards according to the latest numbers, and Trudeau received 37 per cent of the decided vote, up five points from last week. The Conservative party would receive 31 per cent of the vote (down two points) if an election were held today, while Tom Mulcair and the NDP continue their downward slide and would receive 24 per cent of the vote (down two points), according to the poll. The breakthrough for the Liberals came from their support in Ontario where they have a commanding lead over their rivals with 43 per cent support. The Conservatives are second with 30 per cent, the NDP third with 23 per cent and the Green’s fourth with four per cent. “The Liberals have gained ground taking it away from the NDP no question about that, but the motivation has been to defeat Stephen Harper,” Wright said. “You are getting more people recognizing that with Trudeau’s momentum that’s better to join them than to stay with the NDP.” The battle for Quebec is a four-way race with the Liberals enjoying a small lead with 29 per cent over the Conservatives with 26 per cent, the NDP at 24 per cent and the Bloc at 20 per cent. The battle for British Columbia has the Liberals in the lead with 37 per cent over the NDP at 30 per cent. The Tories are at 29 per cent and vying for second position. The Green Party is well behind at three per cent http://globalnews.ca/news/2273978/liberals-jump-out-to-6-point-lead-ahead-of-conservatives-in-latest-ipsos-poll/ ps - Exclusive Global News Ipsos polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Global News Ipsos Reid.” This poll was conducted between October 9 and October 13, with a sample of 1,349 Canadians from Ipsos’ online panel and is accurate to within +/- 3.0 percentage points 19 times out of 20. Edited October 13, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote
ToadBrother Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 Oh I found a poll published TODAY. In fact just out by IPSOS poll: Liberals Lead of 6% confirmed by another poll other than Nanos - Yahooooooooooo Liberals now at 37% conservatives stuck at 31% NDP at 24% With the failure of the NDP vote, this raises the specter of a Liberal majority. I wonder how dedicated the Liberals will be to electoral reform if they gain a sub-40% majority. Quote
Vancouver King Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 There is a huge red tsunami coming on Oct. 19th. Elections Canada just reported an astonishing 3.6 million voter cast early ballots - up 71% over 2011. This has to be related to ABC. Quote When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one. ...... Lord Lytton
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 Yes another poll by EKOS which to my memory placed conservatives ahead by large sum on September 22 and even as recent as a couple of days ago now placing liberals ahead by 4.5% Liberals open up some space nationally CPC fades in Quebec NDP sees glimmers in Quebec, B.C. Liberals - 35.6% conservatives - 31.1% NDP - 20.6% http://ipolitics.ca/hcn/the-ekos-poll/ Quote
ReeferMadness Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 With the failure of the NDP vote, this raises the specter of a Liberal majority. I wonder how dedicated the Liberals will be to electoral reform if they gain a sub-40% majority. That is a valid concern - but I'm skeptical they can pull off a majority. Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
ReeferMadness Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 Environics has some pretty interesting polls out on the Ottawa suburban ridings: https://s3.amazonaws.com/leadnow/Environics-leadnow-oct-13-15.pdf One that really blows my mind is Kanata-Carleton, where the Tories won with 54% of the vote, the Liberals down at 26%, and the NDP down at 15%. In the Environics' poll, it shows the Liberals dominating at 50% among decided voters, the Tories down to 30%, and the NDP having literally shrunk to nearly half its 2011 support at just 8%. Peterborough-Kawartha is another one, with the Liberals dominating at 46%, where they received just 21% in the last election, and the Tories have dropped from the 2011 of 50% down to 34%, and the NDP again dropping, this time from the 2011 result of 25% to just 17%. These kinds of polls tell us two things; that the Tories are bleeding badly in Ontario, and that there does seem to be something to the Anybody But Harper movement, as it sure does look like a lot of NDP voters are preparing to vote Liberal. You want to be a bit careful relying too much on this poll. It was an automated poll and they are less reliable than talking to real people. Some of the results look questionable. For example, I see that it says that the NDP have a lead in Cariboo-Prince George and Okanagan-Shuswap. I won't say it's impossible but I will believe it when I see it. If this is really the case, the bitterness expressed by Conservative supporters here at MLW will have some basis come next Monday. Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
cybercoma Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 Must up to date info. Click image for link to Wiki with the most current information available. Quote
waldo Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 the waldo remains cautiously optimistic... and is still not yet prepared to issue a MLW member Boges like 'Boomface'! Quote
ToadBrother Posted October 13, 2015 Report Posted October 13, 2015 You want to be a bit careful relying too much on this poll. It was an automated poll and they are less reliable than talking to real people. Some of the results look questionable. For example, I see that it says that the NDP have a lead in Cariboo-Prince George and Okanagan-Shuswap. I won't say it's impossible but I will believe it when I see it. If this is really the case, the bitterness expressed by Conservative supporters here at MLW will have some basis come next Monday. Even if you throw in a larger error margin, it's hard to look at a lot of these riding level results and not see that the Tories may not be on the brink of a serious loss of support. Heck, the Liberals look like they may take a number of urban ridings in Alberta. Quote
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