Federal Election Polls

[WWWTT]

Of course the other parties don't want it going to court.... I wonder why...

I get several flyers each week from my conservative MP Kyle Seeback.

Canada post only sends them now with the rest of the junk mail fortunately.

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

Well... not much time left - just when does the blitzkrieg arrive?

It arrives during the televised debates!

Harper is going to rip everyone to shreds in those!

WWWTT

[webc5]

I know this is a little off topic, but when do 2015 federal election signage's go up on people's lawn?

[eyeball]

Too soon.

[On Guard for Thee]

It arrives during the televised debates!

Harper is going to rip everyone to shreds in those!

WWWTT

I think you meant to say...going to get ripped to shreds.

[Derek 2.0]

breaking Federal law? What Federal law?

The Parliament of Canada Act.

Is the Board of Internal Economy 'secretive committee' the arbiter of "Federal law"? Again, which Federal law do you assert was broken?

Why yes it is:

52.3 The Board shall act on all financial and administrative matters respecting

• (a) the House of Commons, its premises, its services and its staff; and

• (b) the members of the House of Commons.

Since you're drawing the comparison, here I thought the Senate affair involved internal and external audits along with RCMP investigations... related to claims of inappropriate expense claims for "actions/activities unrelated to Senate business".

The Senate scandal, like the issues with the NDP, both fall under the Parliament of Canada Act, and in several examples, the Criminal Code.

In that regard, are you stating the NDP paid the involved employees for work/actions unrelated to the support of the related MPs?

That, along with the usage of HOC/GoC assets for party purposes.........The Tories, Liberals, Greens and Bloc are all able to separate their role in Government and their roles as members of a membership funded political party, as defined by the Board of Internal Economy, which is afforded such powers by the Parliament of Canada Act

[Derek 2.0]

are you sure you understand what you've been railing on about here? I interpret the claimed BOIE 'kangaroo court' finding relates to satellite offices and the physical location of related employees... not to the nature of the work being performed by the related employees. If I am incorrect in my interpretation, please provide supporting detail to that end.

The Board of Internal Economy is no more a "kangaroo court" then the HoC, Senate, GG or the SCC, as outlined by already cited law. The rules governing Members expenses and usage of Government funded assets for political purposes have already been cited.....As already stated, the by-laws the Board found the NDP to have broke was the use of their constituency offices (funded by the taxpayer) for party purposes.

[Derek 2.0]

per 308 aggregate monthly polling over the last year... lots of repeated MLW Harper Conservative support offering forewarning statements along the lines of, "just wait until that Harper attack ad machine turns towards the NDP". Well... not much time left - just when does the blitzkrieg arrive?

Plenty of time, like the last several previous elections, the war chest is fully opened during lawn sign season.......when Canadian's pay heed to the "truth adds"........in this case, a safe assumption for those not in the know, is sometime after Labour Day..........for what its worth, the Globe's election simulator has now put the Tories slightly ahead of the NDP in seat totals, resulting in a Tory minority Government if the election was held today........outside of the Trudeau adds, the Tories haven't even beaded the NDP or outlined what they will do in another mandate......as highlighted by Eric Grenier, in the two latest polls, the Tories numbers have improved......An astute person might ask why the Tories numbers have improved as of late, despite little to no politicking.......

[waldo]

That, along with the usage of HOC/GoC assets for party purposes.........

summation: your "That" reference speaks to you stating, unequivocally, that the NDP paid the involved employees for work/actions unrelated to the support of the related MPs... along with, as you say, the NDP used HOC/GoC assets for party purposes..... care to cite the IBOE summary findings in that regard?

you maintain that Federal law was broken by the NDP in regards the IBOE declaring an internal bylaw was broken... care to cite the specific bylaw that speaks to the physical location of employees of Members of Parliament?

.

[waldo]

The Board of Internal Economy is no more a "kangaroo court"

secretive, colluding, partisan

[waldo]

......as highlighted by Eric Grenier, in the two latest polls, the Tories numbers have improved......An astute person might ask why the Tories numbers have improved as of late, despite little to no politicking.......

that's a fairly selective reading you're taking on that article... I'm surprised you didn't highlight the overall projection result! As for the G&M simulator, I'm shocked over all that targeted vitriol towards the article's political scientist author/consultant... surely being from the "Flanagan neo-con Calgary School" has no bearing on the "algorithm" used... surely!

.

[waldo]

much was made of last weeks Forum poll... even a MLW status update, no less! Per the latest update from the CBC's/Eric Grenier Poll Tracker:

Edited July 17, 2015 by waldo

[Vancouver King]

Amazing. Forum had Conservatives & NDP in dead heat 10 days ago - now NDP has 7 point lead. All the bad economic news for the gov't is likely catching up to them - although the Bank of Canada's confirmation of our current recession is not yet factored in.

Another interesting finding involves Liberals only regional stronghold - Atlantic Canada. Forum is the first poll to observe a major shift there - NDP now has 47 - 30 lead over Liberals in this region.

Forum declares: an election held today would yield a strong NDP minority gov't.

Again, these latest two polls are amazing reading.

[Derek 2.0]

summation: your "That" reference speaks to you stating, unequivocally, that the NDP paid the involved employees for work/actions unrelated to the support of the related MPs... along with, as you say, the NDP used HOC/GoC assets for party purposes..... care to cite the IBOE summary findings in that regard?

you maintain that Federal law was broken by the NDP in regards the IBOE declaring an internal bylaw was broken... care to cite the specific bylaw that speaks to the physical location of employees of Members of Parliament?

.

IBOE minutes from 03/02/15

With Mrs. Turmel and Mr. Toone dissenting, the Board determined the remedies it will seek further to its August 12, 2014 finding that some NDP Members inappropriately used parliamentary resources for certain shared employment expenses: Since individual Members’ Office Budgets were used to supplement the NDP Research Office Budget, the Board directed the House Administration to inform each of the 68 participating Members, including House Officers and one former Member, of the salary costs each incurred from May 2, 2011 to December 31, 2014 that must be reimbursed, as a personal expense. The total amount to be reimbursed is $2,749,362.

You can read further from the above link or parse through other meetings from this link.

[Derek 2.0]

secretive, colluding, partisan

Partisan without a doubt, but care to demonstrate your claim to it being both secretive and colluding?

[Derek 2.0]

that's a fairly selective reading you're taking on that article... I'm surprised you didn't highlight the overall projection result! As for the G&M simulator, I'm shocked over all that targeted vitriol towards the article's political scientist author/consultant... surely being from the "Flanagan neo-con Calgary School" has no bearing on the "algorithm" used... surely!

.

I have/had no idea who put the Globe's simulator together.......as to selective, based on Grenier's then article, both EKOS and Forum confirmed his claim........

[Derek 2.0]

much was made of last weeks Forum poll... even a MLW status update, no less! Per the latest update from the CBC's/Eric Grenier Poll Tracker:

Yet EKOS's more recent poll:

And of course, Forum polled the Tories at 36% several days prior to the 2011 election, with EKOS polling the Tories at ~34%...........

So what does this mean, months prior to our election? Sweet Fanny Adams

[Vancouver King]

Your guys are 10 points back from their 2011 finish with more bad economic/Dufffy news to come. Two weeks ago you couldn't say enough on the deep significance of the Forum's tied numbers. now the Forum reports a 7 point NDP lead 12 weeks out and suddenly it's meaningless.

The downside of being partisan.

[Smallc]

12 Weeks out is as meaningless as 12 months out. I don't know who will win. You don't either.

[Keepitsimple]

Yup - things do not appear to be too rosy for the Conservatives BUT there area number of factors that point to a comeback that might disappoint the new NDP fan club and the anti-harper club:

1) Incumbent governments are often behind in the polls until the rubber hits the road. One of the best examples was the last Ontario election where the Conservatives (pretend they are the NDP) were out in front by a mile - yet the Liberals - even after 10 years of incompetent, corrupt "governing" - ran away with the election once people entered the voting booth.
2) The Liberals will not be making a comeback - they'll be fighting for their lives to even have a chance to be the official opposition - so they desperately need to attack the NDP or they will continue their descent into irrelevance.
3) The Conservatives have not completed presenting their platform - pretty sure there will still be a surprise or two.
4) Once the light is truly shining on NDP policies - $15 a day daycare, repealing the Clarity Act, anti-free trade ideology ......it puts them on the defensive - the free ride will be over.
5) The Conservative war-chest is full and they have not yet begun the fight.

When you start to throw all those things together, there's plenty of room for voters to be a little shaky when they have to put their X on the ballot. It all leads to an incredibly interesting election. As much fun as we're having. all of our blabbing means nothing......but I'm really looking forward to enjoying the ride.

Edited July 18, 2015 by Keepitsimple

[Ash74]

I have noticed Wynne has not yet brought in the cap and trade policy that she promised and has been very busy keeping the hydro one sale quiet. I believe will be held off till after the election so her buddy JT does not have angry Ontario voters to deal with.

Curious if some of the OPP investigations are also being held off for the same reason.

[Derek 2.0]

5) The Conservative war-chest is full and they have not yet begun the fight.

Near $70 million full, more than all other parties combined..........it could prove valuable in a drawn out campaign

[On Guard for Thee]

But, but Mr. Harper said he wouldn't go against his own fixed election date "law". He would't go back on his word would he? I guess he figures he'll do it American style and if he can't win the election he'll just buy it.

[Vancouver King]

Yup - things do not appear to be too rosy for the Conservatives BUT there area number of factors that point to a comeback that might disappoint the new NDP fan club and the anti-harper club:

1) Incumbent governments are often behind in the polls until the rubber hits the road. One of the best examples was the last Ontario election where the Conservatives (pretend they are the NDP) were out in front by a mile - yet the Liberals - even after 10 years of incompetent, corrupt "governing" - ran away with the election once people entered the voting booth.

Which was explained away by Hudak's lack of appeal and foot in mouth episodes. In this federal election Harper is near universally loathed and his approval rating is abysmal. Abacus used a simple approval minus disapproval calculation leaving Harper with a minus 28 rating. Mulcair scored plus 31.This appears to be an insurmountable, near 60% gulf in favorable ratings.

Forum asked this question of all respondents 3 weeks ago: "Are you in favor of a change of gov't?" Fully 77% of all respondents answered yes. Unbelievably, this appears to mean about 25% of Conservative supporters favor change of gov't. Come from behind victories must be especially difficult when sizable numbers in your own party favor a change.

Edited July 18, 2015 by Vancouver King

[cybercoma]

First, it's not crap.

Second, it's freedom of speech.

And they're probably on the internet because that's where young people go more often than TV.

WWWTT

Campaigning outside the writ period is crap and it needs to stop. I'm sick of the perpetual campaign.