North Korea Attacks

[nicky10013]

ArmyGuy implied the conflict would escalate beyond Korea.

It would draw in South Korean Allies, but escalate off the peninsula? I highly doubt it. That being said, even the cost of war ON the peninsula would be so high that it wouldn't make sense for the South. Eventually the North would lose and the Kim's would lose power, which would make sense for them.

[nicky10013]

It probably would...There would be a cascading effect through treaty's like what happened at the outbreak of World War 1...

Which treaties?

[Jack Weber]

Which treaties?

Does'nt the US have treaty similar to the one with Taiwan that if South Korea is attacked they would come to their defence?

Or is it that both countries are technically still at war the US,through the UN,is still technically engaged?

I thought the Chinese had the same situation dealing with an atack on North Korea?

[TimG]

There would be a cascading effect through treaty's like what happened at the outbreak of World War 1

Give me one example of a country that would be compelled to come to the defense of NK because of a treaty obligation. If conflict breaks out it will be NK against the world.

[TimG]

I thought the Chinese had the same situation dealing with an atack on North Korea?

There is no reason to believe that China would honour such a treaty given there is nothing in it for them.

[nicky10013]

Does'nt the US have treaty similar to the one with Taiwan that if South Korea is attacked they would come to their defence?

Or is it that both countries are technically still at war the US,through the UN,is still technically engaged?

I thought the Chinese had the same situation dealing with an atack on North Korea?

The US would certainly respond. China wouldn't. At most, China would station troops along the northern border to prevent refugees from crossing the border.

[Jack Weber]

There is no reason to believe that China would honour such a treaty given there is nothing in it for them.

Your probably right,however,there is the ambiguous Sino-Korean Treaty that was signed in 1960....

[Jack Weber]

The US would certainly respond. China wouldn't. At most, China would station troops along the northern border to prevent refugees from crossing the border.

At the moment...Probably...

It depends on how strident Bejing feels it can be vis a vis the US....

[GostHacked]

It is important to note that NK and SK are still officially at war with each other. Maybe there have been articles of cease fire, but never a full reconciliation for peace.

[nicky10013]

At the moment...Probably...

It depends on how strident Bejing feels it can be vis a vis the US....

They're not going to stroll into a war when China holds a gigantic amount of US debt.

[Jack Weber]

They're not going to stroll into a war when China holds a gigantic amount of US debt.

You're right...

It behooves China to wait until the US has paid off that debt....By that time China will be the #1 economic power in the world...

Then maybe they go after Taiwan...

[ToadBrother]

Why? Won't it be in everyone's interest to see the NK dog put down as quickly as possible?

Because this dog can bite. Certainly SK and Japan have little desire to see the kind of flameout a dying nuclear regime can produce. China doesn't want it either, for the twofold reason that they don't want to be flooded with millions fleeing or US-lead or US-backed operations in NK again.

[TimG]

Because this dog can bite.

I was responding to a suggestion that China would intervene militarily to prop up the NK regime after a shooting war started. I don't think that would happen. It would NK against the US and SK with logistical support from the Japanese.

[xul]

While I am sure that a spotter with the help of GPS could pinpoint the particular spot on open water where shells landed harmlessly....the response of shelling a populated area with live shells goes way beyond the pale and into the realm of disprortinate force. Surely Goldstone should launch a fact finding mission....

According some Chinese media I read, citing SK military officials who responsed questions in their parliamentary, the sequence of the cross-fire is about like this:

1 SK artillery began its live-ammunition drill, not firing towards NK direction but the opposite direction;

2 NK artillery began to fire its first round shells on SK artillery emplacement on the Island, the bombard lasted about 10 minites, then it stopped;

3 About 13 minites from NK's first shelling, SK gunners came out of their hidding place and began to bombard some military buildings on the NK's side, fired about 80 shells. When asked why SK artillery didn't attack NK's artillery emplacement but other targets, the offical said NK's artillery hided inside the caves carved into rock so shelling them was useless;

4 about 30 minites later from NK's first shelling, NK fired second round shells, which is supposed as the response to SK's fightback.

--

According to SK official, NK fired two round about 170 shells, about 90 shells fell into the sea, others on the Island. Most of them fell into SK's military area, only a few shells fell into civilian area.

Yeonpyeong Island is not like Canada, its just a very small place which civilian cannot keep away from military targets, so I take the several shells in civilian area as the inaccuracy of NK artillery.

I'm also curious to the 90 shells which fell into the sea. Is it also because of the inaccuracy of NK's artillery? Or is it because NK's first round shells all fell into the sea, but SK responsed as fired on their shore, so they fired the second around shells on the Island for revenge?

Edited November 26, 2010 by xul

[wyly]

Because this dog can bite. Certainly SK and Japan have little desire to see the kind of flameout a dying nuclear regime can produce. China doesn't want it either, for the twofold reason that they don't want to be flooded with millions fleeing or US-lead or US-backed operations in NK again.

and the capital of SK is within easy range of the N's artillery plus the nuclear factor, i don't doubt the SK could win this war but the cost of winning in civilian casualties and economic damage may be just to high...it'll happen only as a last resort and I doubt the NK's will push it push it to that point...

[dre]

and the capital of SK is within easy range of the N's artillery plus the nuclear factor, i don't doubt the SK could win this war but the cost of winning in civilian casualties and economic damage may be just to high...it'll happen only as a last resort and I doubt the NK's will push it push it to that point...

Nobody wants to fight... Thats the bottom line. People should calm down, and SK should stop running live fire drills in a disputed area... fuckin dumb. This could easily have just been a misunderstanding.

[dre]

The US would certainly respond. China wouldn't. At most, China would station troops along the northern border to prevent refugees from crossing the border.

China doesnt have to get militarily involved in a way against the US. It would simply need to refuse to lend the US the money it would need to fight another Korean war and nothing will happen.

This things a non starter.

[bush_cheney2004]

Nobody wants to fight... Thats the bottom line. People should calm down, and SK should stop running live fire drills in a disputed area... fuckin dumb. This could easily have just been a misunderstanding.

Nope...unless you consider all the previous border and dispute events to be "misunderstandings". How convenient for you with no skin in the game.

[bush_cheney2004]

China doesnt have to get militarily involved in a way against the US. It would simply need to refuse to lend the US the money it would need to fight another Korean war and nothing will happen.

This things a non starter.

LOL! If it was that simple, China could stop Iraq and Afghanistan too. Kids!

[dre]

LOL! If it was that simple, China could stop Iraq and Afghanistan too. Kids!

I dont think they really cared much about those adventures.

[dre]

Nope...unless you consider all the previous border and dispute events to be "misunderstandings". How convenient for you with no skin in the game.

Funny, but the people with no "skin in the game" are conveniently the ones pining for another Korean war as well.

But the fact is the US and SK arent gonna do SHIT.

[bush_cheney2004]

I dont think they really cared much about those adventures.

Doesn't matter even if they did. China is still trying to figure out how to repatriate Taiwan.

[bush_cheney2004]

Funny, but the people with no "skin in the game" are conveniently the ones pining for another Korean war as well.

But the fact is the US and SK arent gonna do SHIT.

OK...we'll just call it another "misunderstanding"....LOL!

The Korean War never ended.

Edited November 26, 2010 by bush_cheney2004

[dre]

OK...we'll just call it another "misunderstanding"....LOL!

The Korean War never ended.

Who knows what the hell it is. You have the US and SK doing live fire drills in a sensitive area. Either it angered NK into reacting, or some idiot with the hair trigger fired. Who the hell knows. In any case theres not a whole lot you can do at this point.

Seriously... what the fuck would have SK/US do?

[bush_cheney2004]

....Seriously... what the fuck would have SK/US do?

The same thing Canada would do if Dawson Creek was shelled....shoot back.