Another Mid-East war coming?

[Argus]

An interesting aspect of the Hezbollah vs Israel hostilities is the funding Hezbollah gets, pretty open funding and support from Syria and Iran. I note the comment made below, which resonates, that Hezbollah has more missiles than most governments. They fired thousands at Israel during the month long war they had last. Canada couldn't do that. Nor many nation-states could. To me, the answer for Israel is obvious. Instead of getting bogged down in Lebanon, they should first take out Syria. I mean, a little support is one thing, but when the support reaches the levels Syria and Iran provide then you're at war. Israel should take out the Syrian military, then wipe out all oil production facilities, and anything else which fuels the Syrian economy, be it dams, power stations or whatever. Iran is a bit out of range but Syria certainly isn't, and maybe a good hard pounding will quiet down the Syrians just like the Americans did to the Libyans.

There is a high probability that Israel and Hezbollah will go to war this summer. This will not be like the intense localized conflict of 2006, which generally was confined to southern Lebanon and the northern tip of Israel. This conflict will be far costlier, and its inevitable escalation will involve other countries in the region.

National Post

[eyeball]

Another Mid-East war coming?

I think it would be more accurate to ask if another skirmish or battle is coming.

[Bonam]

To me, the answer for Israel is obvious. Instead of getting bogged down in Lebanon, they should first take out Syria. I mean, a little support is one thing, but when the support reaches the levels Syria and Iran provide then you're at war. Israel should take out the Syrian military, then wipe out all oil production facilities, and anything else which fuels the Syrian economy, be it dams, power stations or whatever. Iran is a bit out of range but Syria certainly isn't, and maybe a good hard pounding will quiet down the Syrians just like the Americans did to the Libyans.

I think it is unlikely that Israel could carry out a preemptive war of that magnitude against Syria without other nations in the area joining the fight against Israel and without totally ruining what remains of its relationship with Europe.

Reality is, Israel will soon be basically immune to conventional rocket attacks via the Iron Dome system. Israel needs to focus on building international support for making sure that its enemies do not acquire nuclear weapons, and, failing that, preparing for a military strike to get rid of enemy nuclear facilities themselves.

[myata]

Well, somebody massively finances Israel despite its openly aggressive and provocative policy in the territories it occupies. As balance is always establishes itself in the nature, somebody's had to be found to finance the other side. Study the natural order of things!

I do hope that no war is coming in that long suffering region, this summer or next or as long as possible.

[DogOnPorch]

Well, somebody massively finances Israel despite its openly aggressive and provocative policy in the territories it occupies. As balance is always establishes itself in the nature, somebody's had to be found to finance the other side. Study the natural order of things!

I do hope that no war is coming in that long suffering region, this summer or next or as long as possible.

And pray-tell where does Syria and Iran get their weapons? Allah? Weapon fairy? Grenade trees?

[Argus]

Well, somebody massively finances Israel despite its openly aggressive and provocative policy in the territories it occupies. As balance is always establishes itself in the nature, somebody's had to be found to finance the other side. Study the natural order of things!

I do hope that no war is coming in that long suffering region, this summer or next or as long as possible.

Balance would be Iran financing Syria, or even Lebanon, not Iran financing a terrorist group within Lebanon. If Hezbollah start firing off missiles at Israel again to the point where Israel is justified in taking military action I believe they should take it against Syria.

[Argus]

I think it is unlikely that Israel could carry out a preemptive war of that magnitude against Syria without other nations in the area joining the fight against Israel and without totally ruining what remains of its relationship with Europe.

Israel would have to take initial missile attacks, including some severely damaging ons before the world (excluding the arab world) would feel they are justified in taking action. It would have to be done properly, but according to international law Israel would be justified in hitting Syria and Iran if they can prove that Hezbollah are being armed, financed and guided by them, and if Hezbollah attacks them.

Reality is, Israel will soon be basically immune to conventional rocket attacks via the Iron Dome system.

Right, just like the US will be immune to nuclear attacks due to Star Wars.

[sharkman]

It was mentioned that if Israel attacks they will end their relationship with Europe(edit fix!). Huh? There is no relationship with Europe, who sides with anyone but Israel whenever the opportunity arises and would like to see a de-nuked Israel with a dozen enemies surrounding them.

War? Iran would love to provoke one and I have heard theories that Russia has been helping Iran's nuclear and military ambitions. Russia, Iran and a handful of mid-east countries could try another surprise attack. In this theory, Russia actually sends troops.

Edited May 23, 2010 by sharkman

[Bonam]

Right, just like the US will be immune to nuclear attacks due to Star Wars.

Star Wars was scrapped (and would indeed have protected against missile-based nuclear attacks), Iron Dome was not. Read up a bit on anti-rocket technologies, they have been in development for some time with ever better results. Modern systems have extremely high success rates, demonstrated in extensive tests, against any kind of rocket presently in the possession of Hamas or Hezbollah, as well as against Mortar attacks. Iron Dome is currently being deployed in Israel.

[Topaz]

All of you may already know this info but here it is anyway. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_%E2%80%93_United_States_military_relations

[Wild Bill]

Star Wars was scrapped (and would indeed have protected against missile-based nuclear attacks), Iron Dome was not. Read up a bit on anti-rocket technologies, they have been in development for some time with ever better results. Modern systems have extremely high success rates, demonstrated in extensive tests, against any kind of rocket presently in the possession of Hamas or Hezbollah, as well as against Mortar attacks. Iron Dome is currently being deployed in Israel.

Just read the 'wiki' on Iron Dome, Mr. B. Seems well within our technology limits today. Merely a question of will to provide funding.

All this from the microcomputer chip. In 1977 I was a young lad starting his career in selling electronic parts to industry and manufacturers. Intel released the world's first 5 volt only 8 bit microcomputer chip just as I was putting a stapler on my desk! Shortly I was fielding orders for Eproms to video game manufacturers, for hundreds of thousands of dollars per order! Those were heady times.

You sparked a question with me and I wonder if you might share some comment. If a system can calculate the ballistics of an incoming projectile so quickly it can launch something to intercept it, whether it be another missile or a laser beam as with the Skyguard system, couldn't it also accurately calculate the point of origin? Couldn't such a defense system theoretically figure out precisely where the rocket launcher was based and accurately launch a retaliatory strike, with a warhead calculated to destroy the target with a minimum of collateral damage?

Surely that would tend to limit the number of Hezbollah repeat offenders!

[maple_leafs182]

We need to end the wars in the middle east, they are creating instability as appose to stability. What do you think would happen if China had a war going on in B.C,

[M.Dancer]

We need to end the wars in the middle east, they are creating instability as appose to stability. What do you think would happen if China had a war going on in B.C,

Lots of dead chinese.

[Bonam]

You sparked a question with me and I wonder if you might share some comment. If a system can calculate the ballistics of an incoming projectile so quickly it can launch something to intercept it, whether it be another missile or a laser beam as with the Skyguard system, couldn't it also accurately calculate the point of origin? Couldn't such a defense system theoretically figure out precisely where the rocket launcher was based and accurately launch a retaliatory strike, with a warhead calculated to destroy the target with a minimum of collateral damage?

Would be nice. There's a few problems with this though. First, militants can move out of the way immediately after launching a rocket. These things have a flight time more than long enough to allow that. Second, they often launch from the roofs of civilian buildings, from the yards of civilian buildings, etc. Resultingly, an automatic system that sent a missile to the point of origin would still have a potential for collateral damage.

Additionally, rockets don't follow a purely ballistic trajectory. They have a certain period of powered flight, followed by an unpowered cruise phase. Depending on when exactly the rocket transitions between the two relative to when you observed it with your system could significantly affect the calculated point of origin. Not to mention factors like wind or, against more advanced rockets, deliberate maneuvers.

Realistically, a preferred method for gaining intelligence for retaliatory strikes is satellite or drone surveillance, which does not rely on any assumptions or calculations about the rocket's trajectory, but rather observes its launch directly. At that point, a decision can be made whether to launch a retaliatory strike. This is the method employed by most modern military forces, including Israel. I would be surprised if they don't have drones and/or satellites monitoring Gaza 24/7/365.

[maple_leafs182]

Lots of dead chinese.

But chances are it would make us kind of mad and it would destabilize the area.

We are making enemies by fighting these wars.

Not to mention war is murder/terrorism.

"Wars are poor chisels for carving out peaceful tomorrows" - Martin Luther King Jr.

[sharkman]

War is just negotiation by other means.