Massachusetts Senate Race

[August1991]

This race has several implications. First, the "Ted Kennedy" Senate seat is the 60th vote to overcome a Republican filibuster. Second, the vote is a mini-referendum on Obama. Third, it's a precursor of the mid-term November elections. Fourth, Massachusetts may occasionally have a Republican Governor but Republican Senators are few and far. Finally, is Scott Brown the future of the Republican party? That is, there is a debate among Republicans about whether they should go Goldwater, or Rockefeller.

A special Senate election is being held next Tuesday in Massachusetts to finish Edward Kennedy’s term. The candidates are Martha Coakley (D), and State Senator Scott P. Brown ®.

The election is particularly noteworthy for a number of reasons. First, recent polls show Brown matching or even exceeding Coakley’s electoral support, in one of the most liberal states in the entire country (and one that hasn’t elected a Republican in four decades). See Pollster.com’s aggregation of polls here, and Intrade’s political market for the election here. Second, the consequences of a Brown victory could be the derailment of the Democratic health care reform proposal, if all Senate Republicans maintain party unity.

To my mind, the election is fascinating for another reason. Brown is attracting very positive national and state Republican and conservative attention. On the other hand, State Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava attracted very negative attention from conservatives in her special election campaign for the 23rd Congressional District of New York.

Brown is actually a liberal Republican who is to be found to the left of Dede Scozzafava! So why, then, the enthusiasm gap in support for the two? This post documents this assertion, and then answers this puzzle.

Link

Here is the Intrade market on this election. Look at the price change in the past 14 days.

I happen to think that Coakley will win but the margin will not be large, and the Obama Democrats will rightly interpret this as a strong wake-up call. I don't think that Obama will change his ideology or programme. But he will change his tactics.

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Anyway, this is a vote result to check next Tuesday night.

[punked]

Mass has also NEVER had a Female Senator or Governor in.

Edited January 17, 2010 by Charles Anthony
deleted re-copied Opening Post

[Guest American Woman]

"We're nervous. This whole health care thing could blow up if Coakley isn't elected."

Asked why the race appeared so tight in such a strongly blue state, McEntee cited complacent campaigning by Coakley in the weeks since she won the Democratic primary.

"I don't know Mrs. Coakley," he said. "But maybe it's something in the water in Massachusetts.

Or maybe it's something in the "health care thing." Perhaps Americans aren't happy with the plan since it's forced health coverage, with fines attached no less, rather than providing health care and a lot of people stand to lose more than they gain. It amazes me that some of the politicians who are so gung-ho over this plan are blind to that.

Edited to add link

Edited January 17, 2010 by American Woman

[punked]

I hope someone gets this out there.

[Shady]

CNBC's Jim Cramer: Brown Win Tuesday Causes Huge Stock Rally As Investors Celebrate 'Pelosi Politburo Emasculation'

Link

Right on Jim! Right on!

[Guest American Woman]

CNBC's Jim Cramer: Brown Win Tuesday Causes Huge Stock Rally As Investors Celebrate 'Pelosi Politburo Emasculation'

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that to happen, if I were you.

[BubberMiley]

Here is the Intrade market on this election.

When Intrade was calling the 2008 election for Obama, all the conservatives on this forum considered it a ridiculous source. One even called them "degenerate gamblers." I'm glad it's at least credible when it favours conservatives.

[punked]

CNBC's Jim Cramer: Brown Win Tuesday Causes Huge Stock Rally As Investors Celebrate 'Pelosi Politburo Emasculation'

Link

Right on Jim! Right on!

Jim Cramer there is a great source.

[Shady]

Here's some of the reasons Coakley might lose on tuesday...

Literally, she all but vanished. She refused to debate on TV unless it was exactly on her terms. She went days without venturing out in public. When she did appear, it was typically to accept endorsements from elected officials or union heads in front of supportive crowds. She may have gone the first month of the campaign without ever meeting an honest-to-goodness rank-and-file undecided resident.

Link

[punked]

Just saw her speak with the President on MSNBC and this narrative republicans are pushing of her is just wrong. She was well spoken, she was intelligent, likable, and can speak with the best of them. I haven't seen her speak before but she was wonderful. I hope the rest of Mass see clips of this on the news and television before Tuesday. It was a great rally framing the issues as they stand

Reports are saying the rally today had such a large line that both the main venue and the over flow were filled and 2/3's of those that showed up still had to wait in the street.

Edited January 17, 2010 by punked

[sharkman]

Just saw her speak with the President on MSNBC and this narrative republicans are pushing of her is just wrong. She was well spoken, she was intelligent, likable, and can speak with the best of them. I haven't seen her speak before but she was wonderful. I hope the rest of Mass see clips of this on the news and television before Tuesday. It was a great rally framing the issues as they stand

Reports are saying the rally today had such a large line that both the main venue and the over flow were filled and 2/3's of those that showed up still had to wait in the street.

I've heard reports saying that Obama's approval ratings are so bad there he has stayed out of the campaign, until now. I don't know how accurate that is, but I think that seeing the Rep in the lead by 4 points is enough to allow the Dem campaign to now use fearmongering to get out the vote, an effective tool. It will be an interesting finish either way.

[Bugs]

I've heard reports saying that Obama's approval ratings are so bad there he has stayed out of the campaign, until now. I don't know how accurate that is, but I think that seeing the Rep in the lead by 4 points is enough to allow the Dem campaign to now use fearmongering to get out the vote, an effective tool. It will be an interesting finish either way.

This is a peek at Obama's rally for Coakley ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gRcTNrhxy8

[punked]

The highlight was his check under the hood line.

[punked]

Scott Brown is the Wall Street Candidate. As Shady has already pointed out.

http://thinkprogress.org/2010/01/15/wallst-scott-brown/

[Shady]

Scott Brown is the Wall Street Candidate. As Shady has already pointed out.

http://thinkprogress.org/2010/01/15/wallst-scott-brown/

Wow, you guys are getting pretty desperate huh? Yes, he's the "Wall Street Candidate", just like Obama's treasury secretary (Timmy G) and economic advisor (Larry S).

And just for the record, punked continues to post garbage from leftwing blogs as hard news. Here's the list of his usual sources.

Think Progress. <-- leftwing

Media Matters. <-- leftwing

Dailykos. <-- really leftwing

Talking Points Memo. <-- leftwing

Come on, at least try and use some real news sources once in a while. You're just getting lazy.

[punked]

Wow, you guys are getting pretty desperate huh? Yes, he's the "Wall Street Candidate", just like Obama's treasury secretary (Timmy G) and economic advisor (Larry S).

And just for the record, punked continues to post garbage from leftwing blogs as hard news. Here's the list of his usual sources.

Think Progress. <-- leftwing

Media Matters. <-- leftwing

Dailykos. <-- really leftwing

Talking Points Memo. <-- leftwing

Come on, at least try and use some real news sources once in a while. You're just getting lazy.

Nice way to refute it Shady facts are facts Shady. "Brown has parked his truck on wall street".

[Shady]

Nice way to refute it Shady facts are facts Shady. "Brown has parked his truck on wall street".

Why? Because he doesn't agree with Obama's ridiculous tax on banks? Like that tax is gonna make banks lend more? And that tax is gonna create jobs?

Face it. Obama's just guilty he's been shoveling money to Wall Street and the banks for almost a year now, with nothing to show for it, except a very angry populace. Don't try and blame that on Scott Brown.

[punked]

Why? Because he doesn't agree with Obama's ridiculous tax on banks? Like that tax is gonna make banks lend more? And that tax is gonna create jobs?

Face it. Obama's just guilty he's been shoveling money to Wall Street and the banks for almost a year now, with nothing to show for it, except a very angry populace. Don't try and blame that on Scott Brown.

No because 50% of his finances for this campaign comes from Wall Street. Get over your right wing policies they failed the last 8 years Shady. Now after a Year under Obama the US is starting to pull out of this mess.

[Shady]

No because 50% of his finances for this campaign comes from Wall Street.

That's not true. Your leftwing source doesn't count any of the money he raise all last week. The million dollar per day fundraising in an average of $75 donations.

Get over your right wing policies they failed the last 8 years Shady. Now after a Year under Obama the US is starting to pull out of this mess.

I wish they were rightwing policies, but they weren't. They were spend, spend, spend, something Obama's taken to a whole different level! And he's just making things worse. After this amount of time, every other recession had already been in a solid recovery. Right now, there is none, with no end in sight.

Anyways, I don't think Wall Street donations is really a subject you wanna talk about, seeing as though Obama recieved more money from them than any other candidate in the history of the United States! But by all means, keep digging the hole you're in.

[punked]

That's not true. Your leftwing source doesn't count any of the money he raise all last week. The million dollar per day fundraising in an average of $75 donations.

I wish they were rightwing policies, but they weren't. They were spend, spend, spend, something Obama's taken to a whole different level! And he's just making things worse. After this amount of time, every other recession had already been in a solid recovery. Right now, there is none, with no end in sight.

Anyways, I don't think Wall Street donations is really a subject you wanna talk about, seeing as though Obama recieved more money from them than any other candidate in the history of the United States! But by all means, keep digging the hole you're in.

You can't count money that no one knows about Shady. This comes from the finance report filed by Brown, he hasn't filed one for those donations Shady. As of right now they don't officially exist Shady.

[Shady]

You can't count money that no one knows about Shady. This comes from the finance report filed by Brown, he hasn't filed one for those donations Shady. As of right now they don't officially exist Shady.

Obama is the all-time king of Wall Street contriubtions. If fact, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup Inc, and JPMorgan Chase & Co are all in his top 5 of top political contributors. So who's truck was parked at Wall Street?

[BubberMiley]

Obama is the all-time king of Wall Street contriubtions. If fact, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup Inc, and JPMorgan Chase & Co are all in his top 5 of top political contributors. So who's truck was parked at Wall Street?

Yes, he's a slimeball conservative like the rest of them. It's nice to see even Shady coming around to the people's revolution.

I can get you a copy of the little red book.

[Shady]

Yes, he's a slimeball conservative like the rest of them. It's nice to see even Shady coming around to the people's revolution.

I can get you a copy of the little red book.

I didn't say that there was anything wrong with it. I just think it's a little ironic, check that, more than dishonest for Obama to whine about other people's wall street donors, when he's the king.

[Shady]

Could this be a bad sign for Martha Coakley?

[punked]

They vote the way they are told if the GOTV works.

Edited January 18, 2010 by punked