Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

Latest Decima poll on stimulus:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianp...hsOKJtaaITzcxQw

A new poll suggests the Harper government's multimillion-dollar, taxpayer-funded ad blitz to promote its stimulus plan doesn't seem to be having the desired effect.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey also suggests most Canadians believe Liberal claims that stimulus spending favours Conservative ridings.

Less than a third of respondents to the poll said they were aware of any stimulus projects underway in their areas.

A majority said they believed there's favouritism in the handing out of cash, but they didn't seem to be too concerned about it.

[Keepitsimple]

Latest Decima poll on stimulus:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianp...hsOKJtaaITzcxQw

Pretty useless poll but I found one answer encouraging.....almost a third of Canadians are aware of a stimulus project in their area. That's an amazingly large number......I'm in Markham near Toronto.....and I actually am not aware of any projects - I'm sure there are some underway - but I don't know about them. As for being biased in handing out money - I would think that even if the opposition was silent, the ruling government would always be suspected of bias.

Edited October 30, 2009 by Keepitsimple

[jdobbin]

I would think that even if the opposition was silent, the ruling government would always be suspected of bias.

It certainly doesn't help when Canada is not as forthcoming on stimulus. That doesn't help clear things up.

[madmax]

The Liberals can live without it out now given the change in their ability to raise money.

However, I can imagine it would look bad for Harper who promised not to do it again.

I believe the intent of the CPC is to campaign on the political subsidies not bring down the government over it. What was petty about the effort last fall is that the party made no mention during the campaign of their intent. And thus political parties borrowed against the projected subsidies and would have the rug pulled out from under them. However, it did wakeup the LPC in that they should raise their own monies.

As for the NDP apparently, all this negative press, about money, low polling numbers and such have proven a red herring for the quarter. The NDP poll numbers are steady and traditional. And from this report, their fund raising just hit an all time high in a non election period.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2009/10/ndp-sco...3rd-quarter.php

According to data provided exclusively to punditsguide.ca, the NDP is reporting its best ever non-election third quarter fundraising results, at $1.08M from 13,655 donors.

[jdobbin]

As for the NDP apparently, all this negative press, about money, low polling numbers and such have proven a red herring for the quarter. The NDP poll numbers are steady and traditional. And from this report, their fund raising just hit an all time high in a non election period.

I suspect that Harper would hurt himself if he did this within a year of promising not to. It might not bring down his government but I can see it bringing down his poll numbers.

[madmax]

Angus Reid Poll released in full today.

CPC with 14 point lead

CPC = 40

LPC = 26

ndp 17

BQ= 9

GP =7

[jdobbin]

And from this report, their fund raising just hit an all time high in a non election period.

Liberal financing in as well and money still coming in. It was $2 million for the quarter or twice as much as last year this time. That's $7.5 million thus far for the year.

[madmax]

I thought the LPC gain was from an IGGY bounce. And the LPC were already in the Cellar, so there was nowhere to go but up.

I am not taking these polls to seriously though, I believe, much like the September Polls, the polsters have the CPC numbers much lower then at game time when it counts.

I have seen two recent polls which have the NDP at 19 and 18%, but just a short time ago, 12% and 15% were common. And the NDP have not made any announcements or changes since Dions December Washout and Iggys coronation.

So, I believe alot of vote parking is happening and if push come to shove, unless the CPC provoke an election, the LPC numbers will go down between a bit and a lot, but nothing like the Dion fiasco.

I can see the NDP being split by the CPC and the LPC, and falling in that 12 to 15% range.

Otherwise there isn't alot of change, infact, some of these projections makes the future look like the 2004 election. But I take a 2012 prediction with a grain of salt.

I just thought I should pull this up......from the past....about as close as I come to making a prediction.

[Dave_ON]

Latest EKOS Poll,

http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2009/11/04/ekos-poll-november.html

The Conservatives still have a double-digit lead over the Liberals, with the support of 37.4 per cent of decided respondents, down from 38.4 per cent last week. Liberal support held steady at 26.8 per cent and the New Democratic Party saw support slip to 16.3 per cent from 16.7 per cent last week.

The Green Party had the support of 10 per cent, while the Bloc Québécois had 9.4 per cent support.

The automated telephone survey reached 3,327 people between Oct. 28 and Nov. 3. The results carry a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

It's interesting to note that we're pretty much back to where we were this time last year. As I expected the CPC jump in support was temporary and likely wouldn't make it to an election. A Majority eludes Mr. Harper yet again.

[capricorn]

A Majority eludes Mr. Harper yet again.

It's kind of early to predict the outcome of the next election. When the election comes, maybe Ignatieff will pull it off and deliver a minority.

[Dave_ON]

It's kind of early to predict the outcome of the next election. When the election comes, maybe Ignatieff will pull it off and deliver a minority.

Correct, timing really is everything when it comes to elections. Though barring an epic CPC disaster, the liklihood of a LPC minority is probably nil. I do find it interesting though that the more things change the more they stay the same. Doesn't appear as though we're going to get out of the minority rut any time in the near future.

[jdobbin]

When the election comes, maybe Ignatieff will pull it off and deliver a minority.

Doubtful. I suspect that the Tories will promote themselves to the hilt between now and the Olympics. They have the Olympic torch going through a majority of Tory ridings and the whole caucus is looking to use the games as a feelgood opportunity. I don't believe that Harper wants to lose a confidence vote so I expect he is checking the calendar now.

Barring the unexpected, his chance of a majority has never been greater.

[Dave_ON]

Latest EKOS poll that is tacked on the end of an H1N1 Poll.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/11/11/ekos-poll.html

The Tories remain on top, dropping slightly to 36.6 per cent support from 37.4 per cent a week ago. The Liberals stayed virtually the same at 26.6 per cent (compared with 26.8 per cent) while the NDP was up slightly at 16.8 per cent from 16.3 per cent.

The Green Party gained, up to 11.2 per cent from 10 per cent support, and the Bloc Québécois dipped to 8.8 per cent from 9.4 per cent.

Respondents were asked which party they would vote for if a federal election were held tomorrow.

The survey of 3,502 people was conducted by telephone between Nov. 4 and Nov. 10, 2009, and has an error margin of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Both landline and cellphone users were included.

No real movement all with in the margin of error. The only party with any real movement would be the Greens.

[madmax]

Latest EKOS poll that is tacked on the end of an H1N1 Poll.

No real movement all with in the margin of error. The only party with any real movement would be the Greens.

The Green Party Stunk in the By-Elections which is one of the few times a smaller party like the GPC or NDP or fringe parties gets to show their strength. I would be hard pressed to consider that the Green Party has any movement other then downward. The reason for this? Ekos prompts party names. When a person is apathetic about politics, and gets a phone poll, the easy route is to say Green. It doesn't have any traction.

Heading into the By Elections in BC, the Green Party were polling at 16% and came out with 4.3%.

In Quebec, Shortly before the by elections the Green Party were touting polling numbers higher then the NDP at 13%. The NDP is a party that used to Poll Lower then the Hooch party in Quebec.

Results CPC take seat, Green Party vote 1.7%

In Hochelaga the BQ retains seat The Green Party fell to 3.3%

However, the NDP moves up to 19%, yet the party polls in the cellar.

In CCMV the Green party came in at another 3.3% of the vote.

The CPC recover the seat. The NDP move into 2nd in a rural riding moving up to 25%.

I don't hold by elections as a magic mirror to the future. But these Results for the Green Party were pretty much standard fare across the Country with results in the 1.7% low to 4.3% high.

I view the Ekos poll as maintaining status quo, even for the Green Party.

Edited November 12, 2009 by madmax

[Dave_ON]

The Green Party Stunk in the By-Elections which is one of the few times a smaller party like the GPC or NDP or fringe parties gets to show their strength. I would be hard pressed to consider that the Green Party has any movement other then downward. The reason for this? Ekos prompts party names. When a person is apathetic about politics, and gets a phone poll, the easy route is to say Green. It doesn't have any traction.

I view the Ekos poll as maintaining status quo, even for the Green Party.

Agreed I wasn't implying that the GPC was making strides among mainstream voters. Even their movement was within the 1.7% margin for error. I think that a lot of voters will poll green but vote one of the major 3, or 4 in PQ. GPC always polls higher then election results dictate. I guess a lot of people use them as an alternative to undecided.

[punked]

New Nanos NDP back up to 18% awesome.

Latest Nanos:

Con: 38% (-1.8%)

Lib: 28.8% (-1.2%)

NDP: 17.9% (+1.3%)

BQ: 9.3% (+0.4%)

Grn: 5.9% (+1.3%)

Undecided: 19%

[Vancouver King]

New Nanos NDP back up to 18% awesome.

Latest Nanos:

Con: 38% (-1.8%)

Lib: 28.8% (-1.2%)

NDP: 17.9% (+1.3%)

BQ: 9.3% (+0.4%)

Grn: 5.9% (+1.3%)

Undecided: 19%

Could continuing Liberal disfavor give the NDP momentum towards the magic 20% threshold? If it happens New Democrats could be destined for official Opposition status.

[punked]

Could continuing Liberal disfavor give the NDP momentum towards the magic 20% threshold? If it happens New Democrats could be destined for official Opposition status.

One answer YES!

[madmax]

CPC 15 Point Lead over LPC.

http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/2009.11.20_Politics_CAN.pdf

CPC = 38%

LPC = 23%

NDP = 17%

BQ = 11%

GRN = 10%

Leaders

Harper = 34%

Layton = 24%

Ignatieff = 12%

[M.Dancer]

Leaders

Harper = 34%

Layton = 24%

Ignatieff = 12%

Pretty sad when the second best will be the one who comes in last....where is Duceppe?

[eyeball]

Pretty sad when the second best will be the one who comes in last....where is Duceppe?

Isn't that the best feature of a FPTP election?

[M.Dancer]

Isn't that the best feature of a FPTP election?

Yes. There is a big difference between admiring a leader and supporting the party...in this case, while Layton might get 24% his party will be lucky to get 15% nationally. Which will make them last.

The Bloc which will get more seats and rightfully so will get upwards to 36% in Quebec.

All the NDP need do to improve their results is to convince at least 10 more out of 100 Canadians that they aren't damgerous.

An impossible task.

[LastViking]

This week's riding projection chart update at TrendLines Research gives the Conservatives a 150-82 lead over the Liberal Party.

[eyeball]

This week's riding projection chart update at TrendLines Research gives the Conservatives a 150-82 lead over the Liberal Party.

And this week is just about the same as any other, 62% or thereabouts, of Canadians still don't want a Conservative government.

[madmax]

All the NDP need do to improve their results is to convince at least 10 more out of 100 Canadians that they aren't damgerous.

Duceppe wasn't listed in the link. Perhaps its a National Question thus he is excluded. Similarly wrong or questionable about the poll is the part, which political party best represents your Province. The BQ faired poorly in Quebec? Something wrong with that outcome.

As has been discussed at length. It is the LPC that are in trouble and the beneficiary is the CPC. In Ontario, the LPC have dropped to 29%.

The NDP numbers do not change when the LPC numbers fall. The myth is that there is a generic LPC swing voter that votes NDP when the LPC are not desired. Even my straw MLW poll beared similar fruit, that when given the choice of not voting LPC, the vast majority choose CPC as 2nd choice. Thus when the LPC fall the CPC benefit. If only because the LPC voter stays home let alone switch parties.

Battles for government are between tweedle dee and tweedle dum. The loser is the opposition waiting for a chance to return to government.

What you are suggesting is that the NDP fight a stereotype. Even if they did, you wouldn't vote for them, nor would alot of other voters. The NDP has a broader role today, being that there is no Reform in Parliment. This party must take on roles that the Official opposition won't. This leaves some room to manuever in terms of various non traditional roles in Taxation, Fiscal policy as well as the traditional NDP areas of social justice, health care, pensions and such. None of which will give the party anymore votes but does enhance political dialogue and debate.

In the meantime, the polls are showing one distinct trend. The LPC are in trouble.