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Yah but the Tory vote is often wasted, so no one knows how it will play out. Maybe 40% is a majority I think they need 42% to be sure.

With such a huge lead in Ontario I would project the CPC to already be in a Majority situation. However you are right in the sense that if the increase in support is in riddings they already hold then it becomes useless. Anywaysif the numbers hold especially in Ontario i can see 10-12 seats turning blue and Quebec could be interesting there seems to be slight shifting going on in the province.

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Latest Ekos Poll

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/10/21/...p-green-bq.html

According to the latest EKOS poll released exclusively to the CBC, the Conservatives had the support of 38.3 per cent of respondents, down from 40.7 per cent last week.

Liberal support rose to 27.1 per cent from 25.5 per cent.

The NDP rose 0.2 percentage points to 14.5 per cent, while Green Party support grew half a percentage point to 11 per cent.

Support for the Bloc Québécois slipped by 0.1 percentage points to nine per cent.

The latest EKOS poll was conducted by phone between Oct. 14 and Oct. 20. EKOS asked 3,270 Canadians how they would vote were an election held tomorrow. Both landline and cellphone users were included. The results have an error margin of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

When we account for the margin for error the CPC has only moved about .7%. However it is interesting to note how easily some negative press affected the CPC lead. I expect this is only the beginning. As I said earlier Mr. Harper may yet wish he had, had a fall election. If some poorly though publicity stunt impacted them this much how much the more will a tax hike affect them?

edited to include bloc numbers which were accidentally omited.

Edited by Dave_ON
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Undecided so often = in the process of shifting.

Undecided could also mean "none of your business". I'm in a staunch Liberal riding and at this time I support the Conservatives. When I get a call asking who I support I say I don't know because I can't be sure who's at the other end of the phone line. Call me paranoid, but I may one day need the help of my MP and I want to stay friends with him.

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The latest Ekos poll above has the Conservatives at 38% and the Liberals at 27%. However, the difference narrows when one looks at another question asked by Ekos, "Which of the following potential outcomes of the next federal election do you think would be BEST?"

Liberal minority 14%

Liberal majority 21%

Conservative minority 9%

Conservative majority 30%

Add up the numbers and it appears that 35% prefer some form of Liberal government and 39%

prefer some form of Conservative government. Here's the poll:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/upl...-october-22.pdf

It can't be good news to either Harper or Ignatieff that almost a quarter of those who plan to vote for them don't want their parties to form a majority government.

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This week's riding projection chart update at TrendLines Research gives the Conservatives a 136-95 lead over the Liberal Party.

Yeah, but if you read their text at the end they actually predict a big Liberal majority in 2012! What the hell do they base that on? It must really hurt to pull a crystal ball out of your butt!

Obviously, in politics such a projection for 3 years from now is ridiculous, unless you regularly read Trendlines. You will quickly see that they are very much Liberal boosters and simply want to say something that sounds very positive for Liberal fortunes. They are mixing statistical math with partisan cheerleading. You have to very much take them with a HUGE grain of salt!

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Yeah, but if you read their text at the end they actually predict a big Liberal majority in 2012! What the hell do they base that on? It must really hurt to pull a crystal ball out of your butt!

Obviously, in politics such a projection for 3 years from now is ridiculous, unless you regularly read Trendlines. You will quickly see that they are very much Liberal boosters and simply want to say something that sounds very positive for Liberal fortunes. They are mixing statistical math with partisan cheerleading. You have to very much take them with a HUGE grain of salt!

It looks to me they use a nth power predicting model. Meaning that because their prediction can't exceed 308 to put past patterns in they will use a 7, 8th, or 9th power prediction for each party. This would make it so that the predictions never exceed 308 but will also incorporate past numbers. The problem with this is it wouldn't be able to predict more then a month out so I wouldn't read anything into anything it says accept what it accounts for today at this second. It doesn't predict the future just the present.

It seems to me a terrible model.

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A new poll shows support for the federal Liberal party has weakened so much that, were an election to be held today, Michael Ignatieff would lead his party to a worse showing than his predecessor, Stephane Dion, did last October.

"The Liberals, these days, just have no traction at all," said Darrell Bricker, CEO of polling firm Ipsos Reid, which provided its latest results exclusively to Canwest News Service and Global National.

Dion received 28% of the popular vote last fall as his party lost to Stephen Harper's Conservatives. The Liberals had not done that poorly at a general election since the country's very first general election in 1867.

---

Meanwhile, the governing Conservatives, despite coming under fire last week with accusations of partisan spending of economic stimulus money, have opened up the kind of lead that often points to majority governments.

Ipsos found 40% of survey respondents said they would vote Conservative. But while 40% is usually good enough for a majority -- Jean Chretien won a majority with 37% in 1997 -- Bricker said the Conservative vote tends to be "inefficient," that is, it's concentrated in provinces like Alberta where, even if their support shot up to 100%, it would not translate into more seats and a majority.

That said, the Conservatives appear to be surging in Ontario, opening a nine-point lead -- 41% to 32% -- over the Liberals. That surge, Bricker said, could lead to more Tory seats and puts them "tantalizingly" close to majority territory.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=2143639

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This week's riding projection chart update at TrendLines Research gives the Conservatives a 136-95 lead over the Liberal Party.

These Trendline people must be a couple of Liberal schoolboys. Their analysis defies any common sense at all.....it must be tongue in cheek...it HAS to be. What convoluted logic could even imagine their future scenario....and based on the last month's polls how on earth could Ignatieff increase his seats from 77 to 95? Ignatieff has momentum? Yes, he does....and gravity is accellerating his fall. This is one of the differences between Liberals and Conservatives....Conservatives may be partisan but they are relatively realistic. Liberals tend to be somewhat soft in the head. Trendlines is a good example.

In our broader analysis, based on the conversion of 6 national polls conducted Sept 3-30 2009 by 8 active models, the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early October Election Campaign with a lead in 136 Ridings ... up from 123 thirty days prior. Albeit Ignatieff's standing dropped from 111 to 95 Members, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will take the projection lead in January 2010, and is poised for an ultimate 164 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.
Edited by Keepitsimple
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We'll see if Harper decides to go for an election now.

You cant say that every other day for months then yell "I TOLD YOU SO" when he does. We will have an election at sometime that is a given I get that you get that but you can't act like you are calling it if you say you call it every second. It is getting old.

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You cant say that every other day for months then yell "I TOLD YOU SO" when he does. We will have an election at sometime that is a given I get that you get that but you can't act like you are calling it if you say you call it every second. It is getting old.

He's not trying to be The Amazing Kreskin here. Now that the Liberals have hurriedly put the cover back on the Big Red Button, we're back to "Canadian's don't want an election!" mode, and Harper will be A Bad Guy if he calls one. Dobbins and his crew are just praying that Harper looks at these poll results and decides it's time to try again.

Dobbins is basically correct here: Canadians really don't want an election. And nobody else is going to force an election right now. So it's catch-22 for Harper... he's got enough support to come close to his majority if there were an election right now, but if he called an election to take advantage of the opportunity he wouldn't have that support anymore.

-k

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Perhaps. It is a crap shoot. Iggy needs more time, but even that may not be enough for him. He is not exactly "leading" the party anywhere right now. The man just isn't Moses, and I don't think he can continue to wander around for another forty years. The party wants action, and he just isn't playing things out the way ANYBODY expected him too. Unless he has an ace up his sleeve the party may have bought a lemon. We shall know very soon.

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Dobbins is basically correct here: Canadians really don't want an election. And nobody else is going to force an election right now. So it's catch-22 for Harper... he's got enough support to come close to his majority if there were an election right now, but if he called an election to take advantage of the opportunity he wouldn't have that support anymore.

No one would be asking the question of Harper calling an election if he hadn't done it once before. The fixed election date is worthless.

One of the reasons the Liberals expressed no confidence in the first place was based on the belief that propping up the government was of little use if Harper was planning on calling an election contrary to the legislation anyway.

All I hear once again is that it is impossible for that to happen. It isn't impossible. All of the people in this forum who said they would not vote Tory again if they called an election without losing a confidence vote found a reason to vote for them despite that.

Harper has to seriously look at the timing. I'm sure that internal polling is asking Canadians what would be an acceptable trigger for an election and what the winning issues would be.

The high poll numbers now might be not lost given the unexpected in politics. A simple Auditor General's report on stimulus spending could turn off voters. If not that, a poor response to a disaster has been shown to be a turning point in a few countries. I expect Harper knows that support goes up and it goes down.

It is hard to believe that Harper would completely leave the possibility of an early election to chance.

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One of the reasons the Liberals expressed no confidence in the first place was based on the belief that propping up the government was of little use if Harper was planning on calling an election contrary to the legislation anyway.

That's not what Ignatieff said. Ignatieffs reasons were to put pressure on the NDP. Infact all his actions were more about dealing with the NDP, then dealing with the CPC or more importantly, dealing with current issues such as EI.

End of the day, it has proven to be a short term tactical blunder that may well grow into a long term strategic failing.

Its too early to tell, but the LPC have suffered the most.

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That's not what Ignatieff said. Ignatieffs reasons were to put pressure on the NDP. Infact all his actions were more about dealing with the NDP, then dealing with the CPC or more importantly, dealing with current issues such as EI.

There was certainly a move to counter the NDP who would have voted against the EI changes if the Liberals had said they were supporting them. I have no doubt about that.

However, at the heart of the problem was the belief that the Tories would call an election anyway and it was important to not continually back down.

End of the day, it has proven to be a short term tactical blunder that may well grow into a long term strategic failing.

If the polls stay high for the Tories for the next three months. That is a lifetime in politics.

Its too early to tell, but the LPC have suffered the most.

That's true. And the NDP have benefited the least. The BQ and Tories have done well though.

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That's not what Ignatieff said. Ignatieffs reasons were to put pressure on the NDP. Infact all his actions were more about dealing with the NDP, then dealing with the CPC or more importantly, dealing with current issues such as EI.

End of the day, it has proven to be a short term tactical blunder that may well grow into a long term strategic failing.

Its too early to tell, but the LPC have suffered the most.

nonsense - it's not all about the NDP!

suddenly your boy/team can't get enough of the Harper gang - explain again what NDP demands were factored into the EI proposal. Explain again, just what is Harper doing to... uhhh... "accommodate" the NDP's policies/wants/desires/wish-list/wet-dreams? For all that Harper gang support, just exactly what has the NDP gained in terms of popular public support?

just what will it actually take for your boy/team to pull the support... just what is Harper crafting that will be so untenable for the NDP that he'll realize his election call? Oh sorry... my mistake... it's not all about the NDP! :lol:

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nonsense - it's not all about the NDP!
Right.... that's why the first stage of the attack was not against the CPC but was the NDP chicken video. It is why, Ignatieff was trying to put the pressure on the NDP and ironically switched roles. The intent was to drive the NDP below the 10% margin and force either an election or the NDP to support the CPC government, and capitalize on the disgruntled NDP voter who hates the CPC government and would be shocked and offended to see the NDP support an ideological evil party.

Only, the numbers didn't turn out as expected. The LPC voters lost interest in the LPC and have noticed the similarities of Harper and Ignatieff. So why not go for the real thing, instead of the flakey, flip flopping immitator?

But certainly, the focus was on the NDP and getting back Northern Ontario ridings and other Ontario NDP pickups from the last Federal Election.

Infact, Ignatieff seemed almost obsessed with the NDP and wanting to rush through parliment,the CPC EI legislation that they don't support. Such a rush, that Ignatieff discounted anothor 120,000 people from January of this year who would not qualify for Long Term Career Transition support, without the prompting of the NDP. The CPC didn't want to include this group. The Largest numbers of Laid off in one month in Canadas history wouldn't be eligible.

suddenly your boy/team can't get enough of the Harper gang - explain again what NDP demands were factored into the EI proposal.
IIRC the EI proposals that the NDP are backing are in 3 different private members bills that would be DEAD if their was an election. On top of that the EI changes that along for the Siti and Eiti programs to be expanded across the country would be lost from insufficient funds. However, what is merely EI bookkeeping is absolutely absurd to deny people in need because the LPC has a political agenda that is more important then the unemployed. We saw that BS all summer, whereas the LPC could have helped push through the EI Private Members bill in June instead of grandstanding. Fact is the LPC have NEVER presented changes to EI. It never happened, there are no bills and none within the last 9 years.

As mentioned above the NDP did manage to get the Government to address those laid off from January 4th opposed to those who normally would be covered only if laid in after January 25th 2009.

ANd what have the LPC done for anyone laid off (Short of bleeding the EI fund of $46Billion)? There is not one thing of substance anywhere. Infact while the CPC have offered marginal changes, those changes are more then the LPC have done positively for the laid off employee in 13 years of Liberal government. Of course more needs to be done. The LPC were supposed to do something from June to Sept and accomplished SFA. And more importantly desired and election vs helping those in need.

Optics were bad.

Explain again, just what is Harper doing to... uhhh... "accommodate" the NDP's policies/wants/desires/wish-list/wet-dreams? For all that Harper gang support, just exactly what has the NDP gained in terms of popular public support?
The NDP and popular support are an OxyMoron. IIRC any benefits attributed to the NDP in a minority government have went to the citizens of Canada and not to NDP polling numbers. Ask David Lewis, who was an instigator of some other NDP initiatives such as FIRA, and soon found himself without a seat for his efforts.

Regardless, the NDP polling numbers haven't collapsed. They are within their traditional margin of error which means on any given day a significant number of NDP seats are vulnerable. I believe that is always the case.

just what will it actually take for your boy/team to pull the support... just what is Harper crafting that will be so untenable for the NDP that he'll realize his election call? Oh sorry... my mistake... it's not all about the NDP! :lol:

Exactly. Regardless, I am certain that if Harper could pull the plug again, he would. But having went to the well once with that trick, he would not be rewarded as he was last year.

Infact, by going to the polls too soon based on polling data, he could pull an Ignatieff.

Speaking of which.....

Federal Liberals drop in polls again

Edited by madmax
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Yeah, but if you read their text at the end they (TrendLines) actually predict a big Liberal majority in 2012!

You will quickly see that they are very much Liberal boosters and simply want to say something that sounds very positive for Liberal fortunes.

Over the past 24 months, their 2012 lead has changed five times. The last lead change was in December. Were you calling them Conservative "boosters" in 2008?

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