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Posted (edited)
This Mornings EKOS. This is majority becuase the NDP often beats the Conservatives not the Liberals in many places with these types of numbers we will see a harper majority.

National federal vote intention:

¤ 40.7% CPC

¤ 25.5% LPC

¤ 14.3% NDP

¤ 10.5% Green

¤ 9.1% BQ

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/upl...october-15_.pdf

My favourite part of the poll...

The Liberals are under siege everywhere they turn,” said Graves. “Even New Canadians, under-25 Canadians, and the university-educated appear to be turning against them. Most stunning of all, the Conservatives now have a lead among women of almost 11 percentage points.”

Choke on it Dobbin! :lol:

Edited by Shady
Posted
Not scared if there is no immediate election.

Polls in previous years have shown that whenever Harper gets numbers in majority territory, Canadians back off and his support abates. This trend is not present of late.

You think the numbers stay where they are if Harper is the one who brings about an election?

Harper will not precipitate an election. He has said he doesn't wish for an election. He is content steering the country through the recession and watching the Liberals implode. My guess he is seeing an upturn in the economy which in time will solidify support for his governance.

I also get the feeling the more the Liberals push their revised green shift, the more Canadians will be turned off. Canadians have one thing on their mind right now, it is the economy and how it affects them. They see the Liberals' green plan as something that would prove expensive and negate the economic benefits of a rebounding economy. I have no idea if their conclusions on the Liberal plan are wrong but I think that is where their heads are at.

"We always want the best man to win an election. Unfortunately, he never runs." Will Rogers

Posted
Polls in previous years have shown that whenever Harper gets numbers in majority territory, Canadians back off and his support abates. This trend is not present of late.

Because Harper has promised no election. You see no connection at all? You think his numbers are rising because people want to see an election and him win a majority right now?

Harper will not precipitate an election. He has said he doesn't wish for an election. He is content steering the country through the recession and watching the Liberals implode. My guess he is seeing an upturn in the economy which in time will solidify support for his governance.

Harper has said such things before.

I also get the feeling the more the Liberals push their revised green shift, the more Canadians will be turned off. Canadians have one thing on their mind right now, it is the economy and how it affects them. They see the Liberals' green plan as something that would prove expensive and negate the economic benefits of a rebounding economy. I have no idea if their conclusions on the Liberal plan are wrong but I think that is where their heads are at.

There is no Green Shift push. Think that was pretty much obvious from yesterday's statement.

It is the Tories that are spending quite a bit on green businesses.

Posted
And well, well, well, it looks as though the hypocrite does read the Naitonal Post afterall. :lol: And just ignores it when there's a poll he doesn't like. :rolleyes:

Think I already said that they cancelled their home delivery in Manitoba and that they only print paper here is Saturday. I don't check the website too often because I don't feel they update enough and said so in my reply to you.

Once again your fury and hatred seems to have gotten the better of you.

I asked legitimately if anyone reads the paper anymore. They've certainly made it difficult to do so. I used to be a subscriber but the paper has cut so much that the paper is rather a hollow shell of itself.

Posted
This Mornings EKOS. This is majority becuase the NDP often beats the Conservatives not the Liberals in many places with these types of numbers we will see a harper majority.

National federal vote intention:

¤ 40.7% CPC

¤ 25.5% LPC

¤ 14.3% NDP

¤ 10.5% Green

¤ 9.1% BQ

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/upl...october-15_.pdf

Thank you for bringing us back to polls. One thing I have noticed is that if any polls put the Conservative near majority, they are news, and the other polls released the same day that show CPC strength, but not majority, they aren't news. If anything, other then the lost wolf, I don't believe the CPC are as Poll happy as the LPC or spending anytime reading the polls that are in majority turf. The CPC can't reap the harvest for months to come and there could be many new parasites and bad cheques to hinder progress. However the most damaging thing for the high CPC numbers would be an election... of all ironies.

:)

Posted
However the most damaging thing for the high CPC numbers would be an election... of all ironies.

Think I have pointed that out and some pollster have indicated that if the Tories try to go to or trigger an election, it would send their numbers down.

Posted

I took a look at the LPC trend. It looks BRUTAL!!! One of the more interesting aspects is that the LPC numbers were not bad and then they start to plummet on a number of occassions. Obviously late Aug and Sept being the worst. So what happened. These downward spikes aren't the result of the CPC attack machine. These results are directly related to major policy or major media statements that Ignatieff has made. Thus all these horrific polling numbers and sharp drops are directly related to Ignatieff opening his mouth.

Early June the LPC are in Polling Heaven, in Late June, Ignatieff has the failed gunfight at EI corral. Drop in support and then a leveling off. Ignatieff goes into a shell all summer and when he makes his big announcement, it totally backfires. The numbers to rise up, they buckle and collapse and go to the CPC.

OUCH!!! Is it fixable??? Harper is still rough around the edges, but experience is proving to be more of an asset then intellectual aloofness and elitist superiority.

:)

Posted
There is no Green Shift push.

This is what Ignatieff said on October 13.

"At the heart of our next platform will be the most significant national investment in clean-energy jobs this country has ever seen," leader Michael Ignatieff declared yesterday, a year less a day after his predecessor, Stéphane Dion, was whupped in a federal election, in part because of his proposed "green shift" carbon tax.

See, it's this kind of thing that will spook Canadians.

Think that was pretty much obvious from yesterday's statement.

Do you have a link? I can't find anything for yesterday.

I'm curious to see if Ignatieff change his mind...again.

"We always want the best man to win an election. Unfortunately, he never runs." Will Rogers

Posted
OUCH!!! Is it fixable??? Harper is still rough around the edges, but experience is proving to be more of an asset then intellectual aloofness and elitist superiority.

I don't think so. The only thing that will stop the Tory majority now is Harper's own issues. What those will be is hard to say but he does have a knack for falling short of that majority he wants.

Will Ignatieff resign before the next election? Doubtful. I think even his enemies in the party would discourage that since it would likely send the party into single digits nationally.

Last election, Harper should have won a massive majority. He ran a fairly poor campaign in retrospect. I believed that it was possible that he could have wiped the Liberals out save for a few pockets.

The Liberal party is on the cusp. We are probably headed for the end of at least one party nationally in the next five years. My feeling is that it could be the Liberals.

As I've said before, if I was left with two choices (with some fringe parties tossed in), I'd probably withdraw from voting altogether.

I'd be joining a long stream of non-voters who are now the majority in Canada. And that's one poll where the number keeps rising every election, it seems.

Posted (edited)
This is what Ignatieff said on October 13.

And he said Green Shift? Carbon tax and all?

See, it's this kind of thing that will spook Canadians.

Harper announced carbon capture this week.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/technology/Ca...4378/story.html

The Alberta and fed-e ra l governments have announced they will spend $779 million over 15 years to help kick-start a carbon dioxide capture project west of Edmonton -- the kind of effort that's been offered as the answer to international concerns over emissions from the province's energy sector.

Think Canada is spooked?

What they don't want is a tax and Ignatieff has said there will be no carbon tax.

Do you have a link? I can't find anything for yesterday.

I'm curious to see if Ignatieff change his mind...again.

Hardly. He said no carbon tax. Are you saying he is now saying there will be a carbon tax and that it will be called Green Shift? If so, please show me where.

Edited by jdobbin
Posted
Hardly. He said no carbon tax. Are you saying he is now saying there will be a carbon tax and that it will be called Green Shift?

Cap and trade is a carbon tax of sorts is it not? Don't get me wrong I think a carbon tax to be way better then cap and trade and thought it was one of the Liberals parties better ideas. Cap and trade however is a carbon tax with out the incentive of moving the tax off labour. It isn't my favourite way to do things. Iggy is for cap and trade right?

Posted
So is Jack, right?

Yep and I have always thought Dions Carbon tax policy wayyyyyy better. Although the environment policy isn't way I am an NDP member. Carbon tax is the way to go for sure it moves taxes off labour and makes more affordable to employ people if you pollute less.

Posted
Do you have a link? I can't find anything for yesterday.

Don't bother asking him for a link. He'll just link you to several hours of audio, and expect you to wade through it, searching for his lie. And when you do, and call him on it, he pretends he didn't say it.

Posted (edited)
Don't bother asking him for a link. He'll just link you to several hours of audio, and expect you to wade through it, searching for his lie. And when you do, and call him on it, he pretends he didn't say it.

I think it you we caught in a lie because you were given details and refused to look at them even when given the exact place to go.

As far as Ignatieff goes, this is what he said in the last day. No Green Shift carbon tax. Period.

If you have different, please show me otherwise I think you are a complete and utter liar as always.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/nation...article1322673/

The Liberals have, however, learned one important lesson. Their environmental policy is based on pouring money into energy renewal, rather than on levying a carbon tax, which voters massively vetoed in the last election.

Mr. Ignatieff promised that, under the Liberals, Canada would create incentives to promote the use of renewable energy such as solar and wind power; finance carbon sequestration technology to clean up its fossil-fuel production; spend on greener infrastructure, including "smart" electrical grids. And the federal government would buy greener cars and make its buildings more energy efficient under the Liberal plan.

Edited by jdobbin
Posted

One factor that hasn't hit the CPC numbers yet is the giant elephant in the room that no politician wants to touch; the subject of a tax increase. At the very least we'll see a rise in EI premiums and in all likelihood Income and Payroll taxes. That's a tough sell even in lieu of the glow of economic recovery and the surge in national pride that the Olympics will generate. The shortfall issue will need to be addressed in the next budget and it will be interesting to see how the CPC navigate those treacherous waters.

Follow the man who seeks the truth; run from the man who has found it.

-Vaclav Haval-

Posted

Towards? They're already there. With the NDP lower than the last election, the Liberals in the same spot, and the Tories higher....

Posted
Towards? They're already there. With the NDP lower than the last election, the Liberals in the same spot, and the Tories higher....

Yah but the Tory vote is often wasted, so no one knows how it will play out. Maybe 40% is a majority I think they need 42% to be sure.

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