Canadian Political Polls

[Smallc]

Speaking of voting on Triple E senate, what exactly is our Minister of State (Democratic Reform) doing anyway?

[waldo]

oh pleasssse… in a federal electoral district context, Strathcona is not an Edmonton riding… but Edmonton-Strathcona is an Edmonton riding? That’s what you’re grasping at? Talk about anal-retentive! As I understand it, there is the community of Strathcona within Edmonton (which includes Old Strathcona)… and there is the federal riding of Strathcona – and if you’d like to be anal about it – the federal riding of Edmonton-Strathcona. And yes, apparently there is also a county of Strathcona… at least there is for now – until regionalization initiatives eventually (probably) see Edmonton amalgamating it.

My god are you dense! Edmonton-Strathcona and Strathcona are NOT THE SAME RIDINGS! Edmonton-Strathcona is NOT made up of "30+ communities", it's a part of the south side of Edmonton INCLUDING THE UofA and is where Linda Duncan (NDP) took out Jaffer. Strathcona is NOT part of Edmonton and contains federal ridings that ARE 100% CONSERVATIVE.

What part of this are having difficulty understanding????????????? I know that you're simply looking at Wiki, but try to understand the larger picture here.

if you have this type of difficulty with something so fundamentally basic, how do you manage day-to-day?

in the federal context… the one we’ve been dealing with… the one you spouted off about concerning the NDP win as a result of, as you stated, "protesting non-tax paying students" – in that federal context, the riding name is Strathcona (officially Edmonton-Strathcona for the anally retentive).

Edmonton-Strathcona

encompasses the neighborhoods of Allendale, Argyll, Avonmore, Belgravia, Bonnie Doon, Capilano, Cloverdale, Empire Park, Forest Heights, Fulton Place, Garneau, Gold Bar, Grandview Heights, Hazeldean, Holyrood, Idylwylde, Kenilworth, King Edward Park, Lansdowne, Lendrum Place, Malmo Plains, McKernan, Ottewell, Parkallen, Pleasantview, Queen Alexandra Park, Ritchie,

Strathcona

, Strathearn, Terrace Heights, and Windsor Park.

see that red-bolded “Strathcona” there… that’s a part of the federal riding of Strathcona (Edmonton-Strathcona)... as I stated. And yet… you emphatically state, “Strathcona is NOT part of Edmonton”. And yet... you emphatically state, "Edmonton-Strathcona is NOT made up of "30+ communities". Talk about dense!

here, enjoy the Stratchona community web-site... Strathcona IS part of the City of Edmonton

The City of Edmonton is the most northerly of the major cities of North America. Glittering on the border between the northern boreal forest and the great central plain of the continent, Edmonton is notable for many reasons. The

community of Strathcona

is an important part of a surprising city.

certainly, we can all appreciate the intense desire for transplants to fit in… you should feel no remorse and hopefully no lasting embarrassment as you painfully attempted to present yourself as one of those ‘real’ tiered Albertans you spoke of earlier… I’m sure if you keep at it you might yet reach your lofty goal of being more than a wannabe Albertan.

[August1991]

Latest from Nik Nanos which confirms other recent polls with one interesting exception: How to explain the significant uptick in Tory support in Ontario?

Liberals: 36%

CPC: 33

NDP: 15

Bloc: 9

Green: 7

http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp

Tory support in Ontario? The more surpising feature is this:

As for who would make the best prime minister, Harper leads with 32 per cent support nationally, followed by Ignatieff at 27 per cent, according to the survey.

Toronto Star

Make no mistake, this result is going to be retested, polled and focus-grouped to death. But I have a suspicion that it will stand up over time.

Edited May 3, 2009 by August1991

[jdobbin]

Tory support in Ontario? The more surpising feature is this:Toronto Star

Not according to Ipsos Reid poll as of today.

In Ontario, the Liberals have a 10-point lead over the Conservatives.

Make no mistake, this result is going to be retested, polled and focus-grouped to death. But I have a suspicion that it will stand up over time.

The Nanos poll numbers are closer than Ipsos.

The poll suggested 43 per cent of Canadians believe Harper would make the best prime minister, compared to 33 per cent for Ignatieff and 23 per cent for NDP Leader Jack Layton. Those numbers were unchanged since December.

[jdobbin]

Ipsos Reid poll:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Liberals+lead...7691/story.html

While the Liberal lead of 36 per cent to 33 could be enough to form government, the poll found Prime Minister Stephen Harper outranking Ignatieff on many counts on the eve of a national Liberal convention vote confirming his four-month-old leadership.

There won't be an election immediately. The Liberals will let bide their time unless Harper decides to pull the plug himself and he is not beyond doing that.

[Shakeyhands]

Ipsos Reid poll:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Liberals+lead...7691/story.html

There won't be an election immediately. The Liberals will let bide their time unless Harper decides to pull the plug himself and he is not beyond doing that.

Come on Dobbin, Harper would never disregard his own election laws and call an election when the polls were in his favour.... you are so partisan....

[normanchateau]

Come on Dobbin, Harper would never disregard his own election laws and call an election when the polls were in his favour.... you are so partisan....

He'd no more do that than withdraw his lawsuit against the Liberals for claiming that he knew about the Cadman bribe.

Edited May 3, 2009 by normanchateau

[Hydraboss]

if you have this type of difficulty with something so fundamentally basic, how do you manage day-to-day?

in the federal context… the one we’ve been dealing with… the one you spouted off about concerning the NDP win as a result of, as you stated, "protesting non-tax paying students" – in that federal context, the riding name is Strathcona (officially Edmonton-Strathcona for the anally retentive).

Edmonton-Strathcona

encompasses the neighborhoods of Allendale, Argyll, Avonmore, Belgravia, Bonnie Doon, Capilano, Cloverdale, Empire Park, Forest Heights, Fulton Place, Garneau, Gold Bar, Grandview Heights, Hazeldean, Holyrood, Idylwylde, Kenilworth, King Edward Park, Lansdowne, Lendrum Place, Malmo Plains, McKernan, Ottewell, Parkallen, Pleasantview, Queen Alexandra Park, Ritchie,

Strathcona

, Strathearn, Terrace Heights, and Windsor Park.

see that red-bolded “Strathcona” there… that’s a part of the federal riding of Strathcona (Edmonton-Strathcona)... as I stated. And yet… you emphatically state, “Strathcona is NOT part of Edmonton”. And yet... you emphatically state, "Edmonton-Strathcona is NOT made up of "30+ communities". Talk about dense!

here, enjoy the Stratchona community web-site... Strathcona IS part of the City of Edmonton

The City of Edmonton is the most northerly of the major cities of North America. Glittering on the border between the northern boreal forest and the great central plain of the continent, Edmonton is notable for many reasons. The

community of Strathcona

is an important part of a surprising city.

certainly, we can all appreciate the intense desire for transplants to fit in… you should feel no remorse and hopefully no lasting embarrassment as you painfully attempted to present yourself as one of those ‘real’ tiered Albertans you spoke of earlier… I’m sure if you keep at it you might yet reach your lofty goal of being more than a wannabe Albertan.

Okay, lets try this one last time for those of you that are borderline-retarded:

Edmonton-Strathcona - A federal riding that does not extend past the city limits of Edmonton, and includes the neighborhood of Old Strathcona (which is not associated with the county of Strathcona)

Edmonton-Strathcona

Edmonton-Sherwood Park - A federal riding that crosses over to include an eastern portion of Edmonton, Sherwood Park (which is in the county of Strathcona), Ft. Saskatchewan, etc.

Edmonton-Sherwood Park

County of Strathcona - An Alberta county that does not form any part of the City of Edmonton; notice the division of highway 14 (everything to the west of that divider is the City of Edmonton)

Map of Strathcona County

Did I type too fast for you to comprehend? The county of Strathcona IS NOT part of the City of Edmonton. You must get very irate when people try to explain the difference between Washington State and Washington, DC.

[waldo]

Did I type too fast for you to comprehend? The county of Strathcona IS NOT part of the City of Edmonton. You must get very irate when people try to explain the difference between Washington State and Washington, DC.

you should have read past posts while typing slower... other than you... who is talking about the county of Strathcona?

mentioning the community of Strathcona... a part of the City of Edmonton... has you completely perplexed. And yet you continue to suggest there is no community named Strathcona within the City of Edmonton - in spite of being presented with facts and web-site links. Just for you... the apparent Alberta wannabe, reading and comprehension challenged... in my previous reply, I even red bolded & font size enhanced the references to the community of Strathcona, the Strathcona community that resides within the City of Edmonton.

on edit: for the reading and comprehension challenged... have a map on me... showing the community of Strathcona within the City of Edmonton:

Just for Hydraboss - the community of Strathcona within the City of Edmonton

Edited May 3, 2009 by waldo

[normanchateau]

For the Liberals, triggering an election will be harder than winning it:

http://www2.canada.com/montrealgazette/fea...b3-b69f9b8f2d38

[daniel]

For the Liberals, triggering an election will be harder than winning it:

http://www2.canada.com/montrealgazette/fea...b3-b69f9b8f2d38

Then there's the possibility of another prorogation.

[Hydraboss]

you should have read past posts while typing slower... other than you... who is talking about the county of Strathcona?

mentioning the community of Strathcona... a part of the City of Edmonton... has you completely perplexed. And yet you continue to suggest there is no community named Strathcona within the City of Edmonton - in spite of being presented with facts and web-site links. Just for you... the apparent Alberta wannabe, reading and comprehension challenged... in my previous reply, I even red bolded & font size enhanced the references to the community of Strathcona, the Strathcona community that resides within the City of Edmonton.

on edit: for the reading and comprehension challenged... have a map on me... showing the community of Strathcona within the City of Edmonton:

Just for Hydraboss - the community of Strathcona within the City of Edmonton

Very good genius. Do you know what forms the core of that map????? The University of Alberta.

Thanks for proving my point.

[waldo]

Very good genius. Do you know what forms the core of that map????? The University of Alberta.

Thanks for proving my point.

I really would like a new dance partner... but will continue to engage.

your supposed point was that the NDP win within the Edmonton-Strathcona federal riding resulted from an overwhelming number of non-tax paying, protesting, University of Alberta (UofA) students. My point was that federal riding comprises some 30+ Edmonton communities... and the UofA is a very small segment, whether one considers size or population base.

we had an entertaining tangent with the "community of Strathcona" within the City of Edmonton... within that federal riding... finally... finally... you have accepted you were wrong throughout the entire discussion. But rather than simply slither off quietly or acknowledge your lack of understanding/comprehension, you feel obligated to attempt some back-pedaling measure in a futile attempt to, I presume, "save face" and recover from your obvious embarrassment.

of course, that map I put up for you highlighted the community of Strathcona... within the City of Edmonton (within the federal riding of Edmonton-Strathcona)... the community you vehemently denied existed. And now, with your latest reply... in reference to that map you have the audacity to state I made your point... you claim that the UofA forms the core of that map.

you really have to be a transplant after all... not one of those real Albertans you referred to. Listen and look at the following map: the UofA is it's own distinct community (yes... an official designated community - designated officially by the City of Edmonton)... it can hardly, as you state, form the core of the map I put up for you... the map that highlighted an adjacent community, the community of Strathcona. Just for you - I've over-layed the UofA community onto a map of the federal riding of Edmonton-Strathcona. You will note... as I stated... the UofA is a very small segment of the federal riding, whether one considers size or population base. If you would really like me to rub it in deeper for ya... I'll take great pleasure in also over-laying that small sliver that makes up the community of Strathcona - let me know if I can oblige you in that regard.

Hey Hydraboss... another map for ya... can ya hear me now?

so... in summation... since you know nothing of what you speak... we can accept - and proclaim - that your claim about the NDP win in the federal riding of Edmonton-Strathcona is bogus.

[Hydraboss]

Well, I think we've come to the end of our discussion. You obviously have no understanding of the map that even you posted. Don't get me wrong, it is an accurate map. It's just your comprehension of it that isn't.

Do you realize just how huge a segment of that map is industrial area? Do you realize where the vast majority of people live (also known as the core concentration)? Before you continue to embarass yourself, you may want to do a little investigation into that one. Unless Freedom Ford, Future Shop and Canadian Tire are now casting ballots, there really aren't that many people in a whole lot of that map.

Of course, if you were a real Albertan from the Edmonton area, you'd already know that.

[waldo]

Well, I think we've come to the end of our discussion. You obviously have no understanding of the map that even you posted. Don't get me wrong, it is an accurate map. It's just your comprehension of it that isn't.

Do you realize just how huge a segment of that map is industrial area? Do you realize where the vast majority of people live (also known as the core concentration)? Before you continue to embarass yourself, you may want to do a little investigation into that one. Unless Freedom Ford, Future Shop and Canadian Tire are now casting ballots, there really aren't that many people in a whole lot of that map.

Of course, if you were a real Albertan from the Edmonton area, you'd already know that.

actually - you continue to be very wrong as I have ready access to the respective vote numbers within each 2008 polling station... and exactly where those polling stations reside across the 30+ communities within that federal riding. I also have the demographic break-down across that federal riding - and all adjacent Edmonton federal ridings... so, ya... I understand that map... the one you say is "an accurate map". You, on the other hand, have yet to provide anything to substantiate your grossly inaccurate and biased claim against the NDP win.

I've also gained an appreciation of the historical voting patterns within the City of Edmonton... I'm particularly taken with that name "Redmonton", in regards a high-percentage of historically non-Conservative voters that reside within the city. Amazingly, historically, there hasn't been that total - complete - Conservative dominance that we hear so much about.

I accept your submission and retreat.

[jdobbin]

Latest Decima poll:

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey places Liberal support at 34 per cent nationally, a nine-point increase on the party's share of the popular vote in last October's federal election.

Conservative support in the poll stood at 29 per cent, with the NDP at 15, the Greens at 11 and the Bloc Quebecois at nine per cent.

Support among survey respondents for both the Tories and New Democrats was down five points from the October election.

Quebec is a big problem for the Tories.

The survey's national numbers also reflect Tory troubles in Quebec, where the Bloc at 38 per cent holds only a three-point lead on the Liberals, while the Conservatives are in single digits along with the Greens and New Democrats.

[daniel]

Latest Decima poll:

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey places Liberal support at 34 per cent nationally, a nine-point increase on the party's share of the popular vote in last October's federal election.

Conservative support in the poll stood at 29 per cent, with the NDP at 15, the Greens at 11 and the Bloc Quebecois at nine per cent.

Support among survey respondents for both the Tories and New Democrats was down five points from the October election.

Quebec is a big problem for the Tories.

That's a 2% drop for the Liberals since May2 - trouble.

Edited May 5, 2009 by daniel

[Vancouver King]

Conservatives down to single digits in Quebec - would the last Tory in La Belle province please turn out the lights.

[Smallc]

Quebec is a big problem for the Tories.

That's a 2% drop for the Liberals since May2 - trouble.

Different polling companies have slightly different results. This poll had the Liberals 2 points lower, but the gap between the parties was larger.

[Smallc]

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews...225770820090422

In fact, since the last Harris - Decima poll, the Liberals are 2 points higher.

[capricorn]

That's a 2% drop for the Liberals since May2 - trouble.

Could be fallout from MI's tax talk.

[jdobbin]

Could be fallout from MI's tax talk.

It is actually a 2% increase from the last Decima poll. Could it be that Harper is feeling fallout?

[capricorn]

Yes 2% is an increase. Yet, one would expect the Liberals would be way ahead of the Conservatives in the polls given the state of the economy. Ditto that the new leader has connections to the White House but I don't see any signs of Iggymania. Maybe the next polls will show a more noticeable bounce from the convention.

[jdobbin]

Yes 2% is an increase. Yet, one would expect the Liberals would be way ahead of the Conservatives in the polls given the state of the economy. Ditto that the new leader has connections to the White House but I don't see any signs of Iggymania. Maybe the next polls will show a more noticeable bounce from the convention.

It is probably a good thing that there isn't a bounce due to popularity of one person in the Liberal party.

As Decima pollsters have commented before, the numbers don't tell the half of it. Tory support is still high in areas they have won. How many more seats can they win Alberta and Saskatchewan? The Liberals are pulling ahead in Quebec, Ontario and doing better in B.C. They still dominate in the Atlantic provinces.

I suppose we will see what happens in the next weeks and months. Harper may wish to trigger an election sooner if he can find a reason to.

[Keepitsimple]

It is probably a good thing that there isn't a bounce due to popularity of one person in the Liberal party.

As Decima pollsters have commented before, the numbers don't tell the half of it. Tory support is still high in areas they have won. How many more seats can they win Alberta and Saskatchewan? The Liberals are pulling ahead in Quebec, Ontario and doing better in B.C. They still dominate in the Atlantic provinces.

I suppose we will see what happens in the next weeks and months. Harper may wish to trigger an election sooner if he can find a reason to.

I tend to lean the other way.....Harper would likely want to postpone an election for some time yet. The economy WILL recover and is showing signs of doing so. This will be a solid testament (real or imagined) to the "steady hand on the tiller" as opposed to all the kneejerk opposition demands - again, real or imagined. The Auto crisis has mostly passed - at least the bad news part. Interprovincial trade barriers are coming down (as announced in Ontario yesterday), an EU Free Trade pact is on the horizon. So we've pretty well hit bottom and still, the Conservatives are still pretty well tied with the Liberals. I think you'll find that Harper will deftly play the EI card - he'll make it seem that Ignatieff is chomping at the bit for an election instead of simply putting forward detailed ideas and working with Parliament to get something done.....and ultimately, I believe the Conservatives with tweak the system a bit to defuse the issue. It looks to me like there is an opportunity for Conservative upward momentum in the polls over the next six months. As hard as it may be to conceive, you may yet see Harper "The Statesman". I wouldn't hold my breath but one thing about Harper that many refuse to acknowledge - he never had grand ambitions to be PM for the sake of having "power" - he is first and foremost, a Public Servant.