Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

Everyone relax and enjoy your summer holidays.

No one wanted an election last time either. Harper called it anyway and you voted for him anyway.

[Vancouver King]

It remains to be seen if another election window as appealing to Liberals as this one presents itself in the fall. All data indicates the recession has bottomed and the coming upturn is likely to neutralize Liberal momentum.

Between the Tory cheerleaders at CTV aiding Harper's repetition of the mantra "voters don't want an election", it appears Ignatieff's concern of a voter backlash on election timing is playing a big part in his deliberations. It shouldn't. Ask a 1,000 Canadians 24 hours before the constitution dictates an election is mandatory and the result would be 75% opposed to such a vote. People lump elections right in there with root canals and as Conservatives have demonstrated in the past, there is no punishment for going to the electorate in advantageous political circumstances.

Liberals should fear they will look back in regret to this time when the portents for success, although not perfect, were far superior than battling a govt that has tamed recession.

[capricorn]

No one wanted an election last time either. Harper called it anyway and you voted for him anyway.

Even when I don't want an election, I get out and vote regardless of the weather. Yes, I voted for the Conservatives. When the Liberals present what I view as a better alternative, I'll switch my vote.

[jdobbin]

Even when I don't want an election, I get out and vote regardless of the weather. Yes, I voted for the Conservatives. When the Liberals present what I view as a better alternative, I'll switch my vote.

I can't recall a majority wanting an election ever even when time was running down for when it was to be called. I think Ignatieff should worry less who is to blame for the election. The truth is they all are in a minority.

[Dave_ON]

It remains to be seen if another election window as appealing to Liberals as this one presents itself in the fall. All data indicates the recession has bottomed and the coming upturn is likely to neutralize Liberal momentum.

Between the Tory cheerleaders at CTV aiding Harper's repetition of the mantra "voters don't want an election", it appears Ignatieff's concern of a voter backlash on election timing is playing a big part in his deliberations. It shouldn't. Ask a 1,000 Canadians 24 hours before the constitution dictates an election is mandatory and the result would be 75% opposed to such a vote. People lump elections right in there with root canals and as Conservatives have demonstrated in the past, there is no punishment for going to the electorate in advantageous political circumstances.

Liberals should fear they will look back in regret to this time when the portents for success, although not perfect, were far superior than battling a govt that has tamed recession.

I agree now is the perfect opportunity for the Liberals to call an election. Granted they'd only win a minority at this point, but at least they'd be basking in economic recovery come fall and the winter Olympics in the New Year. The window of opportunity in the fall will be narrow indeed and most of the current momentum will be lost. Who knows what the next few months will bring? The conservatives certainly have nowhere to go but up in PQ and I'm certain they'll be out an about La Belle Province all summer.

I guess we'll see how this pans out in the fall, who knows Ignatieff's reasons for not pursuing an election. All the noise about calling an election over EI and then settling on blue ribbon committee to study EI over the summer? That's what the conservatives were going to do already, quite disappointing indeed. Perhaps there's some master plan behind this that I'm unable to see, time will tell I suppose.

Oh well I guess that's the end of the political excitement for the summer, was hoping an election would help us get through the dry patch.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I agree now is the perfect opportunity for the Liberals to call an election. Granted they'd only win a minority at this point, but at least they'd be basking in economic recovery come fall and the winter Olympics in the New Year. The window of opportunity in the fall will be narrow indeed and most of the current momentum will be lost. Who knows what the next few months will bring? The conservatives certainly have nowhere to go but up in PQ and I'm certain they'll be out an about La Belle Province all summer.

I guess we'll see how this pans out in the fall, who knows Ignatieff's reasons for not pursuing an election. All the noise about calling an election over EI and then settling on blue ribbon committee to study EI over the summer? That's what the conservatives were going to do already, quite disappointing indeed. Perhaps there's some master plan behind this that I'm unable to see, time will tell I suppose.

Oh well I guess that's the end of the political excitement for the summer, was hoping an election would help us get through the dry patch.

I would not bet on there not being an election at this point. He proved how much Harper wants to stay in power, the only thing in question now is how much Harper will give up to remain where he is. I think there is a line that he will not cross, and that will bring an election call.

[Hydraboss]

It can only be grandstanding now on the part of the Liberals. Happy Jack (for good, bad or other reasons) has already said he will vote against the government on a confidence motion so that has effectively taken the wind out of Iggy's "the NDP are to blame for the election call" stance. If the Lib's vote against the government, we go to an election, and that is the last thing they can afford (politically or financially) right now.

Iggy has two choices: Openly state that he will not force an election, or continue with all the bluster and then instruct "just enough" of his MP's to "accidentally be somewhere else" during the vote allowing for a slim majority on the confidence motion.

Either way he looks weak to both Con and Lib supporters. It's no win for him.

It has nothing to do with Harper crossing a line or not; he can simply stand his ground and let Iggy decide whether or not to go to the polls. As long as he's public about his decision, he won't wear the negativity for the call. First man to the tv cameras wins.

Of course, there's always the Bloc. Who knows what the hell they'll do.

[Smallc]

and that is the last thing they can afford (politically or financially) right now.

Actually, it might be the best thing for them in both categories. They have nowhere to go but up.

[Molly]

There're reasons not to want an election (just hate 'em) and then there are reasons (Never yell "Whoa" in a mudhole.)

Last falls election was just opportunism, and the only real argument against it was cost. December and January, an election would have been a stupid idea, partly because the existing results had yet to be tried, and partly because languishing without active governance was a luxury we simply could not afford.

Now, there's still plenty of reason to stay the course, even if the wrong people are in charge.

I'm not at all in favor of an election right now. Under the circumstances, it would be a frivolous act. The nations business is still urgent.

[Smallc]

I agree withe that assessment. Now isn't really the time...but the time will come.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I agree withe that assessment. Now isn't really the time...but the time will come.

There is no time but the present. If Iggy blows this call, it will cost him a lot more than folks think. Right now the Conservatives are vulnerable, big time. They are eating a lot of bad press, and Iggy is in the limelight. The damned stars have aligned or something because the Conservatives are trending down, the economy is not getting any better, we are still bleeding jobs and production capacity, and perhaps most importantly Harper is seen giving ground which detracts from his own base support.

[normanchateau]

Latest EKOS poll:

Liberals 33.7

Conservatives 32.4

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/06/17/...ence061709.html

[Smallc]

See, he was smart not to go. I'm not sure when his numbers will improve though given that things are probably going to get better for the Conservatives.

[normanchateau]

See, he was smart not to go. I'm not sure when his numbers will improve though given that things are probably going to get better for the Conservatives.

Canadians more-or-less know who Harper is so Harper's numbers aren't likely to change much even when the economy improves. Ignatieff is still unknown to most Canadians so he has the potential for upward movement.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Canadians more-or-less know who Harper is so Harper's numbers aren't likely to change much even when the economy improves. Ignatieff is still unknown to most Canadians so he has the potential for upward movement.

I agree, but not pulling the plug today may be a mistake. We will see what happens, but I think Iggy will make his first strategic mistake and let Harper stay in Sussex until fall.

[Bryan]

Latest EKOS poll:

Liberals 33.7

Conservatives 32.4

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/06/17/...ence061709.html

The average over the last couple of weeks give you LPC 33.7/CPC 32.4. It's nice spin from the CBC to make the recent LPC drop look less pronounced. Look at the numbers for this week only (June 15+).

http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/cbc-2009-06-18.pdf (bottom of page 3)

Looks more like CPC 35/LPC 28/NDP20 are the "latest".

[jdobbin]

The average over the last couple of weeks give you LPC 33.7/CPC 32.4. It's nice spin from the CBC to make the recent LPC drop look less pronounced. Look at the numbers for this week only (June 15+).

I think that is why you have a rolling poll so that you can do averages. The spin is to focus on the one part without looking at the whole.

I guess now you wish Harper had an election?

[Smallc]

Oh yes, the CBC is spinning away....or not. The CBC is reporting what's going on. The Liberals have dropped but have maintained a lead based on the average, the metric that they have been using since the start of the poll. We;ll see if they continued the poll one more week and if they did, things may have changed.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Oh yes, the CBC is spinning away....or not. The CBC is reporting what's going on. The Liberals have dropped but have maintained a lead based on the average, the metric that they have been using since the start of the poll. We;ll see if they continued the poll one more week and if they did, things may have changed.

I am officially pissed at Iggy!

I think he has dropped the ball and given Harper a nice little holiday as Prime Minister.

[Smallc]

Maybe...I don't think that an election was in the countries best interests right now. I'm not Harper's biggest fan, but I don't think that he's going to hurt much over summer.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Maybe...I don't think that an election was in the countries best interests right now. I'm not Harper's biggest fan, but I don't think that he's going to hurt much over summer.

That is true! They will do nothing, accomplish nothing and be paid for nothing!

[Keepitsimple]

Oh yes, the CBC is spinning away....or not. The CBC is reporting what's going on. The Liberals have dropped but have maintained a lead based on the average, the metric that they have been using since the start of the poll. We;ll see if they continued the poll one more week and if they did, things may have changed.

I agree....we'll have to wait at least another week but the fact is, this past week is pretty well the first time that Canadians have seen Mr. Ignatieff "in action" and although one week's worth of polling doesn't mean the sky is falling, the media has made it clear that Canadians were less than impressed with his performance.

[daniel]

... I don't think that he's going to hurt much over summer.

Don't count on it. There were many things we assumed wouldn't be done but he did it anyways.

1) fixed-term election date broken;

2) ignored the will of parliament at least three times;

3) appointed Senators while parliament was prorogued;

4) appointed Senators;

5) had MP cross the floor to his side and allowed him to keep his seat;

6) turned a surplus into a deficit before the recession even started

the list goes on and on.

I have no idea what he will pull over the summer. It's a time when he can get unchallenged press time with each announcement that the other parties can't match.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Don't count on it. There were many things we assumed wouldn't be done but he did it anyways.

1) fixed-term election date broken;

2) ignored the will of parliament at least three times;

3) appointed Senators while parliament was prorogued;

4) appointed Senators;

5) had MP cross the floor to his side and allowed him to keep his seat;

6) turned a surplus into a deficit before the recession even started

the list goes on and on.

I have no idea what he will pull over the summer. It's a time when he can get unchallenged press time with each announcement that the other parties can't match.

At least he can't legislate. I agree he will use the executive powers and privileges he has to do what he can do to buy as much support as he can. I will expect a new round of patronage appointments to high paying bureaucratic position. I expect him to sell off a bunch of public assets and revamp a number of departments to better reflect his vision for the nation. This was why I was not real happy with Iggy leaving him in power over the summer.

[Smallc]

the media has made it clear that Canadians were less than impressed with his performance.

No, the Media has made it clear that they were less than impressed. We'll have to see what the people think when the next poll comes out. I expect the Liberals and Conservatives to have numbers that are close to a tie.