Canadian Political Polls

[Vancouver King]

Hmmm...the last two major polls showed Tories trailing the NDP in Quebec and BC. I guess if the next one measures Conservatives behind socialists in Ontario, it will be safe to schedule the wake.

[ToadBrother]

It's not really that encouraging for the NDP in the BC provincial election. Even though they're in first place, here are the actual numbers from the federal poll:

"And in B.C., the Tories have slipped into a second-place tie with the Liberals (26 per cent each), while the NDP has pulled into a slim lead with 29 per cent support. The Greens had 16 per cent."

http://www.cp24.com/servlet/an/local/CTVNe...2/?hub=CP24Home

Most Conservatives and Liberals will vote for Gordon Campbell. Ironic that Gordon Campbell brought in a provincial carbon tax even higher than Dion's proposed carbon tax while the provincial NDP opposes the carbon tax.

I don't think you can really compare Federal and Provincial NDP support in BC, any more than you could equate Federal Conservative and BC Liberal support. My riding, for instance, has, since the early 1990s, consistently elected Reform/Alliance/Conservative MPs, and yet, save for 2001, has sent NDP MLAs to Victoria for many years.

As far as I can tell, anyone who's a dyed-in-the-wool Federal Liberal will very likely vote NDP. Conservatives will vote BC Liberal (the name is really an anachronism, carbon tax aside).

Maybe everyone's right, BC really is a crazy place.

Edited April 23, 2009 by ToadBrother

[ToadBrother]

Hmmm...the last two major polls showed Tories trailing the NDP in Quebec and BC. I guess if the next one measures Conservatives behind socialists in Ontario, it will be safe to schedule the wake.

That's an interesting result in BC. BC, just a few years ago, was almost as much a bastion for Reform as Alberta. I know with a lot of my fellow British Columbians, there's a real sense that once again the West has been ignored during this financial meltdown, in large part because Harper's softwood deal with the Americans makes it almost impossible to meaningfully help the forest industry, which is still, even now, one of the major components of our economy.

[normanchateau]

As far as I can tell, anyone who's a dyed-in-the-wool Federal Liberal will very likely vote NDP.

Not according to the latest poll which has Gordon Campbell's BC Liberals at 52%:

http://bc2009.com/2009/04/14/mustel-poll-h...ls-up-52-to-35/

While the percentage who will vote NDP federally is slightly lower than the percentage who will vote NDP provincially, the percentage who will vote Liberal federally (26%) or Conservative federally (26%) equals the percentage

who told the Mustel poll they'd vote for Gordon Campbell.

Of course all these numbers can and will change before the election. Even so, they don't support your suggestion that most federal Liberals will vote NDP provincially. Some will. Most won't.

[Wild Bill]

Hmmm...the last two major polls showed Tories trailing the NDP in Quebec and BC. I guess if the next one measures Conservatives behind socialists in Ontario, it will be safe to schedule the wake.

well, it would be if it ever happened but that would be about as likely as "monkeys flying out of my butt", to quote Wayne Campbell of Waynes World.

You have to live in Ontario to understand the depth of revulsion for another socialist government after the fiasco of Bob Rae's NDP provincial term.

Bob and his team successfully pissed off EVERYBODY! Those on the right hated him and also those on the left, for not being "left" enough and for asking them to share in the pain of the recession that was going on at the time.

This revulsion is still stronger than the West's antipathy towards Liberals or English Canada's hatred of Mulroney.

No matter how much Ontarioans might get disappointed in Harper, except for the usual handful of leftist voters they would not vote in another socialist government if it were the ONLY option on the ballot!

You would need another generation or two of time for those folks who remember to grow old and die before the socialists might get another chance.

[madmax]

well, it would be if it ever happened but that would be about as likely as "monkeys flying out of my butt", to quote Wayne Campbell of Waynes World.

The CPC will not fall below the NDP in Ontario, nor will the NDP break above the 26% plateau that might be required to achieve such a feat. Essentially there is no precendent for this.

That said, the NDP received the Highest seat total in Ontario in its entire CCF/NDP history. Heavily exceeding the seat count of Ed Broadbent, which for the NDP has been their high water mark.

Obviously the economic conditions today are going to be far worse then in any time in Ontario history heading back to the Great Depression. The Federal and Provincial governments are at a complete loss of what to do, and lack the expertise required to strengthen Ontario through this globally driven storm.

However, the lack of action in the previous 2 years indicates that while knowing what was at risk, these governments failed to initiate any kind of protections to the employees in Ontario.

Today Solvent companies are closing up, leaving the employees at a loss at how to claim their monies owed from owners overseas. Our police force helps escort the equipment off the premises, and let the crooks leave without paying.

To these people its theft of the wages and a loss of the jobs.

The problem is, it is CPC MPs who many of these people are turning to for help, and SFA is happening.

That doesn't get you votes. THus with the unemployment rate actually in the double digits and many of these people realizing that their conservative values and the conservative party values aren't the same, is leaving them looking for alternatives.

Ironically the same is true of the LPC voter who has lost their jobs and don't realize it was the LPC who weakened the bankruptcy laws and were the biggest thieves of the EI system. Of course these are policies embraced by the CPC.

But the mere fact that the LPC could change these laws, could get them the default vote, which I think is occuring. It is not an earned vote, and the LPC aren't having to work hard to get it. They merely have to exist, and maybe toss out a promise or two.

Under the Current conditions, I see the CPC losing a few seats in Ontario, but not as many as people might think. I also believe they will hold onto some of their newest aquistions.

The NDP is one of the stubborness parties in Canadian History. I think they have are much more stubborn then the Conservatives when it comes to holding values. And while there are many criticisms of the Rae Government, all well earned, the irony is that Mr. Harper appears to be behaving very similar to Mr Rae in his economic governance and at the same time, ticking off his base, which is what Bob Rae did.

Perhaps one of the reasons that the NDP is respected in the North, the CPC almost unelectable until recent, and the LPC the historical default of the region until recent, is that the NDP successfully saved many a bankrupt operation in the North and are remembered for those actions. The did not implement those same policies in Southern Ontario, or I have no knowledge of them doing so, but the NDP have a record of saving Industries and jobs during a downturn so that they will be there during the upturn. Even then there is attrition, as nothing ever stays the same.

The CPC and LPC policy is virtually the same, thus, what layoffs we see today are in the majority, permanent, which is far more stressfull on the system in the longrun. We have an abundance of Millrights, Engineers, Machinists, Mechanics, QA inspectors looking at other operations to implement their science degrees. And finding work for these trades and degrees of people not used to being out of work or essentially having to retrain to become pharmacists, does not buy the love of the current political party governing.

Federally the CPC and Provincially the Liberals are going to take a hit. But it will not be a death blow.

I predict the LPC will regain the strength in Ontario and hold it. The NDP may shed a seat or possibly two. The CPC may lose a 7 to 12 seats in working class ridings, like Cambridge. (Going out on a limb there, but this is a bold prediction)

Unless the economic meltdown turns disasterous, I don't expect to see the CPC polling under 30% during the election.

Provincially, the Liberals free lunch should come to an end. I predict a left right split but the Liberals still holding government. The NDP going up to 14 or 15 seats and the PCs getting up to 32 seats.

Now, lets see how completely wrong I am in 1 to 2 years

Edited April 23, 2009 by madmax

[Smallc]

OTTAWA – Liberals and Conservatives are tied for national support at 33 per cent, according to a Toronto Star/Angus Reid poll.

Since March, Conservative support has dipped two percentage points nationwide, while the Liberals are up by the same margin.

Support for the NDP has dropped one percentage point since March to 15 per cent. The Bloc Québécois remains at 10 per cent support and the Green party has dropped one percentage point to 6 per cent.

The results also show support for the Conservatives has fallen 4.6 percentage points since the October 2008 election. Liberals have increased support by 6.8 percentage points over the same period.

Conservatives, Liberals in dead heat, poll shows

Perhaps the trend is reversing for now?

[Molly]

Yeah... and perhaps the monkeys are preparing on the gastric runway.

(Sorry. Couldn't resist.)

I don't see any sign of such a switcheroo locally. There's been the odd bit of positive economic news lately.. of the 'not as catastrophic as we had come to expect' variety, and the news is dominated by almost anything except activity by Canadian politics. (Not to mention the arrival of spring making everyone less grumpy.) That might represent a short plateau in the fall, but as soon as folks remember that there is a government, I'd bet the slippage will continue.

Folks are hurting around here- getting moreso every day, in spite of the odd tiny glimmer of hope. That makes 'something different' all the more desireable.

[Smallc]

Yeah... and perhaps the monkeys are preparing on the gastric runway.

I hope it's not reversing, I was just surprised to see he numbers go down in relation to what we've been seeing. Perhaps it has something to do with the tax talk from a while ago.

[Molly]

Margin of error. Method of collection.

I don't grant any of them more than ballpark accuracy, and wouldn't expect a consistent, no backstepping AT ALL series of numbers.

Wait and see. Real shifts in trend to be just as visible on the ground, even if not quantified.

Edited April 25, 2009 by Molly

[capricorn]

I hope it's not reversing, I was just surprised to see he numbers go down in relation to what we've been seeing. Perhaps it has something to do with the tax talk from a while ago.

You may be right.

Michael Ignatieff's musings about potential tax increases could hurt his efforts to build Liberal support across the country - except in Quebec, a new poll suggests.

Thirty per cent of respondents to the Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey said they're less likely to vote Liberal in the next election as a result of the party leader's reflections on taxes last week.

Only 16 per cent said they're more likely to support the Grits.

The damage was most pronounced in Atlantic Canada and British Columbia, where 44 per cent and 40 per cent respectively said they're less likely to vote Liberal.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/2009/...9220846-cp.html

Next week's Liberal convention should result in a bump in the polls as is usually the case. Of course, if there is talk about tax increases and it makes the media, the resulting poll numbers might not be so good for the Liberals.

[normanchateau]

I hope it's not reversing, I was just surprised to see he numbers go down in relation to what we've been seeing. Perhaps it has something to do with the tax talk from a while ago.

Perhaps this poll will give Conservatives the false hope that they can win the next election without dumping Harper as leader.

[Molly]

LOL

That would be nice.

[jdobbin]

Next week's Liberal convention should result in a bump in the polls as is usually the case. Of course, if there is talk about tax increases and it makes the media, the resulting poll numbers might not be so good for the Liberals.

I'm sure you have heard the last about tax increases from any party. You are not likely to hear about spending cuts either. You will hear the deficit is going to be fixed by exuberant growth and that taxes will be cut.

It will be up to the public to believe that is really true.

One thing is certain: if Harper ever has to raise taxes for any reason, he will be slapped down so fast by his base that his head will spin. I'm sure he would rather run a deficit because it is easier to convince those on the right that it really isn't an issue and that you can let it happen forever.

[normanchateau]

One thing is certain: if Harper ever has to raise taxes for any reason, he will be slapped down so fast by his base that his head will spin.

He did raise taxes in 2006. The marginal income tax rate for those earning the least was increased by Harper and Flaherty in 2006 from where it had been in 2005 under the Liberals. In 2007, Harper lowered it to 15% so that it was back to where it had been in 2005. He then had the nerve to claim in 2007 that he had lowered income tax rates. In fact, personal income tax rates today are exactly the same as they were in 2005.

[jdobbin]

He did raise taxes in 2006. The marginal income tax rate for those earning the least was increased by Harper and Flaherty in 2006 from where it had been in 2005 under the Liberals. In 2007, Harper lowered it to 15% so that it was back to where it had been in 2005. He then had the nerve to claim in 2007 that he had lowered income tax rates. In fact, personal income tax rates today are exactly the same as they were in 2005.

I hear you. He might try that trick again with raising one tax and reducing another but his stance of no tax increases ever from here on in is likely going to cause him no end of grief.

[Wild Bill]

I hear you. He might try that trick again with raising one tax and reducing another but his stance of no tax increases ever from here on in is likely going to cause him no end of grief.

Haven't the Opposition handed him the perfect excuse? They rant that he's dead wrong about refusing to go into deficit and when he did what they claimed was right they were left floundering trying to criticize him.

Eventually, when he raises taxes again he will be following their "wisdom". They will criticize him anyway of course but to the public it sounds kinda hollow.

However, if these tactics don't work it will be very hard for Harper to escape the blame, since he IS the PM after all and if the Opposition was wrong then he shouldn't have heeded them.

[Smallc]

Eventually, when he raises taxes again he will be following their "wisdom". They will criticize him anyway of course but to the public it sounds kinda hollow.

To the public, I think it's more likely to sound like another lie.

[normanchateau]

I hear you. He might try that trick again with raising one tax and reducing another but his stance of no tax increases ever from here on in is likely going to cause him no end of grief.

So far, his base has supported him no matter how much he flipflops, e.g., no deficit, income trusts, ad nauseam. My favourite is still his flipflop on the Canada Health Act and his attack on Preston Manning and Mike Harris:

http://www.vivelecanada.ca/article/9191983...ks-medicare-law

It's classic Harper. No principles left except power at all costs. His base will support Harper no matter what since there's no serious political party further to the right and CPC has no replacement for Harper.

[jdobbin]

Haven't the Opposition handed him the perfect excuse? They rant that he's dead wrong about refusing to go into deficit and when he did what they claimed was right they were left floundering trying to criticize him.

The Opposition didn't say anything about going into deficit. They said that he was ignoring the economy and would have to do something to stimulate a recovery. It was up to him to act with some commonsense from 2006 on. If he had, he would not have gone into deficit at all like Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Eventually, when he raises taxes again he will be following their "wisdom". They will criticize him anyway of course but to the public it sounds kinda hollow.

The base will look to hang him up by his thumbs first. Many already can't stand his deficit no matter how much he blames the Liberals for it.

However, if these tactics don't work it will be very hard for Harper to escape the blame, since he IS the PM after all and if the Opposition was wrong then he shouldn't have heeded them.

Given that Harper has already burned his bridges in Quebec, one wonder where he is going to get support. I suppose they could gain a seat in Alberta or Saskatchewan but to lose ten in Quebec for acting like a horse's ass?

[Hydraboss]

Norman already said it, and correctly.

Those of us that consider ourselves conservative have no choice except Harper. Steve is scum and plays to whoever he has to to retain power, including robbing the taxpayer coffers to pay for left-wing BS and ridiculous "nanny state" programs that the left want. I, and many like me, will have to hold our noses when we vote.

But we will vote for him.

The only thing that makes us want to puke more than the Cons is anyone to the left of the Cons.

[Wild Bill]

Norman already said it, and correctly.

Those of us that consider ourselves conservative have no choice except Harper. Steve is scum and plays to whoever he has to to retain power, including robbing the taxpayer coffers to pay for left-wing BS and ridiculous "nanny state" programs that the left want. I, and many like me, will have to hold our noses when we vote.

But we will vote for him.

The only thing that makes us want to puke more than the Cons is anyone to the left of the Cons.

And that's where it seems that today's "Cons" have learned nothing from the Great Schizm of Reform! Restricting choices breeds resentment. That's what made the ground so fertile for Preston Manning when he formed a new party.

I keep saying it. If another Manning comes on the scene I swear it will happen all over again!

And so it should! If Harper keeps going as he has been and if the old Mulroney re-treads keep running the party as if it's 1987 then they will have only themselves to blame.

[Smallc]

and if the old Mulroney re-treads keep running the party as if it's 1987 then they will have only themselves to blame.

As I've said, there's a reason that happens. The Canadian people, as a whole, want to vote for either the Liberal party and the party that's like the Liberal party but isn't the Liberal party. A party that returns to Reform principles wouldn't have a hope in hell of winning an election in Canada.

[Hydraboss]

If you can categorize us as a "group", then collectively I think we have learned from the Reform days. When we vote for a party that actually represents us, the vote on the right is split and the Liberals come up the middle indefinately. Hopefully that won't happen again.

This is where a lot of conservatives are stuck. We will never get the government that we want, so for the rest of time we have to vote for the party that keeps the ones we hate out of power. Hell of a democracy for those of us from the west. It's as close as we'll get to democracy, but the result means nothing. Remaining part of this disaster holds no promise of improvement.

As I've said, there's a reason that happens. The Canadian people, as a whole, want to vote for either the Liberal party and the party that's like the Liberal party but isn't the Liberal party

What the hell does that mean? If Canadians as a whole want to vote for the Liberals, why aren't they in power?

[Smallc]

What the hell does that mean? If Canadians as a whole want to vote for the Liberals, why aren't they in power?

Because they have two choices that act very similarly at the time. The Liberals were punished for the Sponsorship Scandal and because the public thought there was a new scandal with the Income Trust issue. They voted for the Conservatives because they weren't the Liberals and they played to the centre. If they had stuck to reform principles, I would almost promise you that the government would still be Liberal.