Canadian Political Polls

[daniel]

Harper's on his way to the G20. Wait for him to make another round of commitments he has no intention of keeping.

[punked]

"OTTAWA, March 30 (Reuters) - Canada's opposition Liberals have gained a slight lead in popular support over the ruling Conservatives amid increasing unhappiness over how the government is tackling the economic crisis, according to a poll published on Monday,.

The Leger Marketing poll for the French-language Le Devoir newspaper put the Liberals, led by Michael Ignatieff, at 35 percent popular support, compared with 34 percent for the Conservatives, who won a strengthened minority in the general election held last October.

The Liberals have continually attacked Prime Minister Stephen Harper for not doing enough to tackle the economic crisis. The survey showed that 41 percent of Canadians said Ignatieff had the best ideas for fixing the economy, compared with just 32 percent for Harper.

"There is no good news at all in this poll for the Conservatives." Leger pollster Jean-Marc Leger told Le Devoir.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/i...034003320090330

The 41% approval of Ignatieff's economic plans coupled with Layton's continuing decline bodes well for a potential Liberal majority in the next election.

Accept when you go to the issues people agree with Layton is first in almost all of them. No one knows Iggy right now his numbers will come down.

[normanchateau]

Accept when you go to the issues people agree with Layton is first in almost all of them.

Perhaps so but a growing number of NDP supporters now realize that a vote for Layton merely keeps the repulsive Harper in power.

[jdobbin]

Latest Strategic Counsel poll

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

The federal Liberals have the Conservatives locked in a virtual tie for voter support across Canada, a new poll suggests.

The latest Strategic Counsel poll, conducted between April 2 and April 5 for CTV and the Globe and Mail, has the Grits ahead of the governing party by two percentage points, which is within the poll's margin of error.

Pollster Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel says the Conservatives should be concerned about the trend line, which firmly shows their support dropping and the Liberals' support growing since January.

Following the same trend as Leger and CROP polls in Quebec:

Across the country

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois remains well out front, but the Liberals are gaining (difference between 2008 federal election results in brackets):

* Bloc Quebecois: 40 per cent (+3)

* Liberals: 29 per cent (+5)

* Conservatives: 15 per cent (-7)

* NDP: 9 per cent (-3)

* Green Party: 6 per cent (+2)

In Ontario:

Donolo said one factor that may hurt the Tories, based on other polling, is that the economy is considered a more important factor in voter preference, than in other regions (difference between 2008 federal election results in brackets):

* Liberals: 45 per cent (+11)

* Conservatives: 32 per cent (-7)

* NDP: 15 per cent (-3)

* Green Party: 9 per cent (same)

In western Canada:

* Conservatives: 46 per cent (-7)

* Liberals: 24 per cent (+8)

* NDP: 19 per cent (-3)

* Greens: 11 per cent (+2)

Nationally:

* Liberals: 34 per cent (+8)

* Conservatives: 32 per cent (-6)

* NDP: 15 per cent (-3)

* Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent (same)

* Green Party: 9 per cent (+2)

I think the attack ads are just a matter of time.

It is no wonder that the Liberals are trying to raise money as fast as they can to respond.

[Smallc]

It seems there is a trend developing.

[MontyBurns]

Soon we will have a new socially elite PM to lead us to the promised land.

[Vancouver King]

Soon we will have a new socially elite PM to lead us to the promised land.

Soon the nation's politics will be rid of the world's last neocon sociopath, done in ironically, by the same forces he's spent a career promoting - unbridled, unregulated financial parasitism.

[MontyBurns]

Soon the nation's politics will be rid of the world's last neocon sociopath, done in ironically, by the same forces he's spent a career promoting - unbridled, unregulated financial parasitism.

Soon the socialist paradise of our dreams will materialize. No more neocons or capitalism. The future will be dominated by socially elite individuals like yourself.

[jdobbin]

Soon the socialist paradise of our dreams will materialize. No more neocons or capitalism. The future will be dominated by socially elite individuals like yourself.

Will you leave the country if that happens?

[normanchateau]

Soon the socialist paradise of our dreams will materialize.

Ignatieff a socialist?

[Vancouver King]

Warm up the paper shredders, clear out the desks and for Liberals, ready the champagn on ice - the next election, as predicted, will be little more than an Ignatieff coronation.

The latest Ekos poll:

Liberals: 37%

Conservatives: 30

NDP: 16

Green: 8

Bloc: 9

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/04/16/...preference.html

[Smallc]

Lets not count our chickens just yet.

[SSD]

Those EKOS poll numbers are awesome. I never knew that the difference in support would be that large. I can't wait for the Liberal Convention which will establish Ignatieff as the official leader and give him the legitimacy in terms of what Canadians see him as. Even the EKOS guy has said that all those that used to be uncertain about Iggy are now having favourable views about him (in a 2-to-1 ratio). Then, give the Liberals a few months of campaign preparation, policy development and fund-raising and voila, a strong minority or even a slight majority for the Liberals.

[jdobbin]

Warm up the paper shredders, clear out the desks and for Liberals, ready the champagn on ice - the next election, as predicted, will be little more than an Ignatieff coronation.

Don't know that you can even it call it a honeymoon period anymore. The build up has been slow.

Large sample as well although I am always concerned about Internet polling. Given that Angus reid held up well in the last election, maybe the formula is getting better. This poll was a hybrid poll. I'm told one of the areas still in need of better sampling is cell phones. Don't know what the Ekos poll does in terms of their overall formula though.

Ekos polling chief commented:

EKOS pollster Frank Graves said the latest numbers, accompanied by regional breakdowns showing the Conservatives' level of support well below that of the Liberals in the key battleground provinces of Ontario and Quebec, suggest that "even the question of repeating a minority is an iffy proposition" for Harper's party.

I thought the Quebec numbers were particularly startling.

[Vancouver King]

Lets not count our chickens just yet.

Ekos counted the chickens in Quebec and found there are now more NDP types there than Tories. Liberals now hold a 3 - 1 advantage in Quebec and the Ontario numbers show Conservatives in freefall - nothing will turn these firming numbers around in time to save Harper's govt - the next election is over.

[Smallc]

Ekos counted the chickens in Quebec and found there are now more NDP types there than Tories. Liberals now hold a 3 - 1 advantage in Quebec

I know, I just don't want to set myself up for a large disappointment.

[waldo]

I do believe she's warming up!

[Vancouver King]

Those EKOS poll numbers are awesome. I never knew that the difference in support would be that large. I can't wait for the Liberal Convention which will establish Ignatieff as the official leader and give him the legitimacy in terms of what Canadians see him as. Even the EKOS guy has said that all those that used to be uncertain about Iggy are now having favourable views about him (in a 2-to-1 ratio). Then, give the Liberals a few months of campaign preparation, policy development and fund-raising and voila, a strong minority or even a slight majority for the Liberals.

The anti-Harper trend has not run it's course yet. The traditional slam that "Tory times are tough times" still has legs, paralleling the continuing downturn. Other on-going and exacerbating issues include the Mulroney/Schreiber inquiry, a constant public reminder of past Tory shenanigans and Afghanistan, with every body bag a stark reminder of that unwinable war.

If Ignatieff can minimize damaging musings - like this week's reference to raising taxes - voters are ready to again trust his party with govt.

[Vancouver King]

Don't know that you can even it call it a honeymoon period anymore. The build up has been slow.

The honeymoon is over. Liberal polling increases are now being earned as a consequence of Harper's fading performance. You could be right about Harper handing out resumes stateside.

Large sample as well although I am always concerned about Internet polling. Given that Angus reid held up well in the last election, maybe the formula is getting better. This poll was a hybrid poll. I'm told one of the areas still in need of better sampling is cell phones. Don't know what the Ekos poll does in terms of their overall formula though.

My impression is that internet polling favors Conservatives for the same reason Tories dominate radio call-in shows - better organization. I doubt the data is adjusted for any such bias. Obama's campaign demonstrated the polling importance of cellphone-only households stateside with an amazing 12% of all urban households now landline free. Here is the astonishing finding about those techno savvy, well off voters - 85% supported Obama.

[normanchateau]

Let's hope that there's no election before fall. These numbers say nothing more than Ignatieff can win a minority if an election were held now. By fall, a Liberal majority is far more likely.

One of the encouraging Ekos findings was this:

"Harper has an approval rating of 91 per cent among decided Conservative voters, although he only has a rating of 14 per cent among Liberal voters, 18 per cent among NDP voters, 28 per cent among Greens and 10 per cent among Bloc voters.

"There's a vivid gap between the Conservative base...and everyone else," Graves said.

Graves added that the reverse doesn't apply for Ignatieff.

The man who has been Liberal leader for almost four months has approval ratings of 33 per cent among Conservative supporters, as well as a rating of 80 per cent among self-identified Liberals. Ignatieff also fares high among other party supporters — he has a rating of 34 among NDP voters, 44 among Greens and 47 among Bloc voters."

The dwindling number of Harper supporters see in him something that most Canadians do not. They'll stick with Harper even though a new leader is the CPC's only hope of reversing the polling trend.

[madmax]

Read it and weep Jdobbin... I scooped ya on a poll

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianp...ju2K-KRPR1fs6Ag

Tories losing ground in key provinces: poll

4 hours ago

OTTAWA — A new poll suggests Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives are losing ground to Liberals and New Democrats in provinces that will hold the key to electoral victory.

The Canadian Press-Harris-Decima survey indicates that the Liberals maintain a slim, three-point lead over the Tories nationally.

But the Tories are losing ground in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia

[jdobbin]

Read it and weep Jdobbin... I scooped ya on a poll

You're right. I hadn't see it yet.

Interesting on the NDP in B.C. I wonder how it was affect them in B.C.'s election.

The Bloc are as stubborn as ever in their high numbers.

[normanchateau]

Read it and weep Jdobbin... I scooped ya on a poll

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianp...ju2K-KRPR1fs6Ag

I could be wrong but isn't this the first time since 2006 that the Conservatives have been below 30%?

[ToadBrother]

The dwindling number of Harper supporters see in him something that most Canadians do not. They'll stick with Harper even though a new leader is the CPC's only hope of reversing the polling trend.

They don't have a lot of choices. Despite the fact that Harper has pretty much betrayed every populist notion he once advocated (or at least had foisted on him by the Reform wing), the only really obvious choice is MacKay, but then that raises the question, as much as a lot of Reformers may feel betrayed by Harper, how many are going to support a Red Tory?

I think they'll hang on to Harper for now, simply because the alternatives could split the party in two again. But these polling numbers must be scaring the crap out of them. If the numbers hold up over the summer, Ignatieff is going to become increasingly tempted to pull the plug, and I get the feeling among the Conservatives I know (I know know, totally unscientific) is that Harper will not fare well in such a contest. I think the Conservatives were really counting on Iggy faltering, or at least the Liberals falling into some degree of disunity over the failed coalition, but that hasn't happened, and won't now that the Liberals smell blood.

But six months in eternity in politics. Maybe there will be some more positive signs of economic recovery, and that could alter Conservative fortunes.

[normanchateau]

Interesting on the NDP in B.C. I wonder how it was affect them in B.C.'s election.

It's not really that encouraging for the NDP in the BC provincial election. Even though they're in first place, here are the actual numbers from the federal poll:

"And in B.C., the Tories have slipped into a second-place tie with the Liberals (26 per cent each), while the NDP has pulled into a slim lead with 29 per cent support. The Greens had 16 per cent."

http://www.cp24.com/servlet/an/local/CTVNe...2/?hub=CP24Home

Most Conservatives and Liberals will vote for Gordon Campbell. Ironic that Gordon Campbell brought in a provincial carbon tax even higher than Dion's proposed carbon tax while the provincial NDP opposes the carbon tax.