Canadian Political Polls

[Keepitsimple]

Because they have two choices that act very similarly at the time. The Liberals were punished for the Sponsorship Scandal and because the public thought there was a new scandal with the Income Trust issue. They voted for the Conservatives because they weren't the Liberals and they played to the centre. If they had stuck to reform principles, I would almost promise you that the government would still be Liberal.

Funny how that happens. The Liberals are famous for "campaigning from the Left and governing from the right". The Conservatives campaign from the right and govern from the center. I guess we'll just have to see how it all plays out.

[Smallc]

The Conservatives campaign from the right and govern from the center.

I didn't really see much of that in the last two campaigns...it certainly wasn't very far right...and the Liberals weren't very far left.

[Wild Bill]

Because they have two choices that act very similarly at the time. The Liberals were punished for the Sponsorship Scandal and because the public thought there was a new scandal with the Income Trust issue. They voted for the Conservatives because they weren't the Liberals and they played to the centre. If they had stuck to reform principles, I would almost promise you that the government would still be Liberal.

If that were true, then why was it that every election Reform kept increasing its seat count and/or it's share of the popular vote? That it kept growing?

Despite the historical revisionism of the left, the Reform/Alliance didn't unite with the old PCs because they felt that they had stalled and would NEVER form the government! It simply wasn't happening fast enough for them!

The support in Ontario and the Maritimes was steadily increasing. Even Quebec showed growth, albeit more slowly than anywhere else.

No, your premise just doesn't fit the facts. You are presuming that Canadians are inherently Liberal/left and will only vote for a party of that philosophy. There were consistently several million voters not in Alberta but in ONTARIO who prove you wrong.

Reform/Alliance just got too impatient! They made a bonehead assumption that if they had X many voters and what was left of the PCs still had Y many voters then if they combined each party would automatically keep all its support and you could just add up the total and waltz into Ottawa!

Obviously, it was a mistake. They blew it! Especially after losing Manning for Stockwell Day, who allowed his evangelical roots to mix with his politics and alienated huge portions of the party core.

People support a party for a LOT of reasons and it might not always be clear what would happen after a major change like a merger. While it was true that the split had allowed the Liberals a free ride for over a decade if the parties had stayed separate there were certainly no signs at all that the PCs were doing anything but still drying up and withering away while Reform kept growing. The chances were virtually zero that the PCs would ever start growing again. Especially since at a certain point people tend to vote for winners and abandon perpetual losers. Quebecers tend to do this, in my experience. Once Reform had begun to look like it might win the numbers in Quebec would almost certainly have experienced a dramatic rise. I'm not saying they would have swept the province but they certainly could have done well enough in Quebec to put them into Ottawa.

Now we have the bitter irony of watching how the old PCs have committed a reverse takeover. They've seized control of the reins of the new CPC and can thumb their noses at the majority who never supported them, since they have replicated the old Mulroney trick of leaving their core with no other option who to vote!

I've said this so often I think I might make it my signature. Why did Manning ever bother?

[Smallc]

You are presuming that Canadians are inherently Liberal/left

They are...and it's clearly borne out in every election result.

Edited April 27, 2009 by Smallc

[Wild Bill]

They are...and it's clearly borne out in every election result.

Cite, please?

I think that if you actually looked at the election results for the past 20 years you'd have a hard time proving your statement. The Chretien years were the result of the vote splits between Reform and the old PCs. If you add up their votes and compare them to the Liberals it seems obvious that the majority of Canadians are NOT Liberal!

[Smallc]

Cite, please?

I think that if you actually looked at the election results for the past 20 years you'd have a hard time proving your statement.

Really? IF you add up the Liberal votes (mostly centre to left), NDP votes (left), you come to almost half of the vote. In the last election, the results show many Liberals stayed home, so their votes weren't counted and the results are skewed down this time. You can also add a large portion of the votes from the Bloc and the Green Party to that total and you have over half of the population voting for those parties. I never claimed they were Liberal, I claimed that they were liberal and left.

Every time the Conservatives are together (in recent times) they run middle of the road. That is a large part of the reason that they are able to win. It also has to do with a vote split on the left with the Liberals splitting with the NDP, Greens, and Bloc on the left and the Conservatives, Green and Bloc in the centre. Perhaps it would be more true that most Canadians are in the centre looking at that. It seems that many of them are less likely to vote far left or far right and so parties like the NDP and the Reform would have trouble unless they ran from the middle.

Edited April 28, 2009 by Smallc

[Vancouver King]

Another installment of positive news for Liberals on the eve of their convention. Can Ignatieff do the impossible - move the Bloc off it's guaranteed 40% share of Quebec votes?

The latest La Presse/CROP poll:

In Quebec:

Liberals: 37%

Bloc: 31

CPC: 15

NDP: 12

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

[jdobbin]

Another installment of positive news for Liberals on the eve of their convention. Can Ignatieff do the impossible - move the Bloc off it's guaranteed 40% share of Quebec votes?

In Quebec:

Liberals: 37%

Bloc: 31

CPC: 15

NDP: 12

It really is a stunning number. I honestly didn't expect to see it.

Still, the BQ are among the best campaigners in the land. Ignatieff will have to convince Quebcers that their interests are better served by someone other than the BQ. That is going to take good policies, good candidates and good organization.

[Dave_ON]

It really is a stunning number. I honestly didn't expect to see it.

Still, the BQ are among the best campaigners in the land. Ignatieff will have to convince Quebcers that their interests are better served by someone other than the BQ. That is going to take good policies, good candidates and good organization.

That's very true, though support for the BQ is flagging somewhat. In fact until Mr. Harper's ill fated Arts cuts the Conservatives were gaining quite nicely on the BQ. I think that Ignatieff is definitely on the right track to making serious inroads into Quebec. He's certainly striking a cord with Quebec with the whole; Quebec should be in charge speech. They know the BQ will never really hold any national power and the best they can hope for is official opposition status. If a Grit comes along that's willing to show them some attention, I think they'll throw their support behind him quite readily.

It appears that a Liberal minority is quite likely at this point and they may even be edging towards majority territory. If they continue their gains in PQ, ON and BC it's all but over for the CPC.

[Wild Bill]

It appears that a Liberal minority is quite likely at this point and they may even be edging towards majority territory. If they continue their gains in PQ, ON and BC it's all but over for the CPC.

Anything can happen but nothing then would change. The Liberals would still be nowhere in the West. We still wouldn't have a united country.

I'm slowly coming to believe that East, West and Quebec are so different that it is impossible for any party to ever make all regions feel included. I haven't seen a united country since Mulroney's majorities. It just may no longer be possible.

That being said, perhaps we should stop flogging a dead horse and admit that our Confederation is a failure! We stay united because we have to, not because we actually like it!

If the country breaks up I'm moving to Alberta. They have better beer and steak!

[jdobbin]

That being said, perhaps we should stop flogging a dead horse and admit that our Confederation is a failure!

If so, maybe Canada will have the civil war it never had.

[Hydraboss]

If so, maybe Canada will have the civil war it never had.

A war? In Canada? What are we gonna do, throw TimBits at each other?

Better hope it never comes to that. Alberta has more unregistered long guns. Some of them even still fire.

[Hydraboss]

If the country breaks up I'm moving to Alberta. They have better beer and steak!

I'll take a Black Angus ribeye over just about anything else on Earth. Beer is good. Mmmmmm. Beer.

[Smallc]

Anything can happen but nothing then would change. The Liberals would still be nowhere in the West.

We don't know that yet...also, the US is no different in this respect....people don't have to vote for the same party or have the same politics to belong to the same country.

[jdobbin]

A war? In Canada? What are we gonna do, throw TimBits at each other?

I was actually thinking of extremists blowing things up. It has happened before.

Better hope it never comes to that. Alberta has more unregistered long guns. Some of them even still fire.

And I have no doubt some people might use them.

[normanchateau]

Especially after losing Manning for Stockwell Day, who allowed his evangelical roots to mix with his politics and alienated huge portions of the party core.

Stockwell Day's error was not so much mixing politics with his evangelical roots but being open about it.

Stephen Harper also mixes his evangelical roots with his politics. How else does one explain his parliamentary votes on issues relating to homosexuality and marijuana?

Harper has the good sense not to discuss his evangelical religious beliefs as Stock did.

[M.Dancer]

Stephen Harper also mixes his evangelical roots with his politics. How else does one explain his parliamentary votes on issues relating to homosexuality and marijuana?

Common sense and a distaste for the unneeded.

[capricorn]

I'm slowly coming to believe that East, West and Quebec are so different that it is impossible for any party to ever make all regions feel included. I haven't seen a united country since Mulroney's majorities. It just may no longer be possible.

This is also the impression I've developed about Canada over the last 25 years. Ignatieff believes that building east-west infrastructure, more rail corridors and roads, will unify the country. This is fine in theory. Yet, I don't think the various parts of this country will be turned on by such expensive projects. It boils down to regions wanting to look after themselves first. For example, would Quebec care that one can shave off an hour's travel time to BC and vice versa due to improved highways or railways? I don't think so.

That being said, perhaps we should stop flogging a dead horse and admit that our Confederation is a failure! We stay united because we have to, not because we actually like it!

My thoughts as well. I have said before that the unity card will be central to Ignatieff's strategy. The contents of his book True Patriot Love is a dead giveaway. Watch him at the Liberal convention. He'll be all over the unity issue.

[waldo]

I have said before that the unity card will be central to Ignatieff's strategy. The contents of his book True Patriot Love is a dead giveaway. Watch him at the Liberal convention. He'll be all over the unity issue.

you believe Confederation is a failure?

are you not for Canadian unity... are you not for Canada?

[Leafless]

This is also the impression I've developed about Canada over the last 25 years. Ignatieff believes that building east-west infrastructure, more rail corridors and roads, will unify the country.

More Quebecers and more Western bilingualism will unify the country?

I really think Ignatieff wants Canada to self destruct.

[Leafless]

you believe Confederation is a failure?

are you not for Canadian unity... are you not for Canada?

Is Quebec for Canada?

[Smallc]

Is Quebec for Canada?

So says the polls...and the failed referendums. Every country has different groups on different areas that vote different ways and want different things. You should see the way that the American posters on a car site that I visit refer to California and to a lesser extent New York.

To say that Confederation is a failure because we have different wants and needs is rather stupid really. No one said that a country has to be a homogeneous group....and this one certainly never was.

[Wild Bill]

you believe Confederation is a failure?

are you not for Canadian unity... are you not for Canada?

You can be FOR Canada and yet recognize reality! How does it serve Canada to pretend "the Emperor has no clothes!".

Isn't that how politicians keep fooling us?

"Excuse me, Mr. Politician, but I've been waiting all year for an MRI and I'm afraid I might die before I get it!"

"What! You unpatriotic Canadian! Do you want an American system where babies are born in ditches and thousands of poor folk die untended?"

Once again an awkward question gets successfully dodged under the guise of being "...for Canada".

[Smallc]

"Excuse me, Mr. Politician, but I've been waiting all year for an MRI and I'm afraid I might die before I get it!"

Where do you live? I would wait 3 months for an MRI if they were just doing one to check something out, but if I really needed one..I would have it yesterday. CIHI just releases stats they day before yesterday showing that waits are getting shorter...we are improving the system

[Wild Bill]

Where do you live? I would wait 3 months for an MRI if they were just doing one to check something out, but if I really needed one..I would have it yesterday. CIHI just releases stats they day before yesterday showing that waits are getting shorter...we are improving the system

Once again, my model is critiqued and my point ignored.