Canadian Political Polls

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I tend to lean the other way.....Harper would likely want to postpone an election for some time yet. The economy WILL recover and is showing signs of doing so. This will be a solid testament (real or imagined) to the "steady hand on the tiller" as opposed to all the kneejerk opposition demands - again, real or imagined. The Auto crisis has mostly passed - at least the bad news part. Interprovincial trade barriers are coming down (as announced in Ontario yesterday), an EU Free Trade pact is on the horizon. So we've pretty well hit bottom and still, the Conservatives are still pretty well tied with the Liberals. I think you'll find that Harper will deftly play the EI card - he'll make it seem that Ignatieff is chomping at the bit for an election instead of simply putting forward detailed ideas and working with Parliament to get something done.....and ultimately, I believe the Conservatives with tweak the system a bit to defuse the issue. It looks to me like there is an opportunity for Conservative upward momentum in the polls over the next six months. As hard as it may be to conceive, you may yet see Harper "The Statesman". I wouldn't hold my breath but one thing about Harper that many refuse to acknowledge - he never had grand ambitions to be PM for the sake of having "power" - he is first and foremost, a Public Servant.

In my view, nothing could be further from the truth. Harper is all about power and control, he doesn't even give his Ministers freedom of speech let alone action. He is a micro-manager who deserves all he gets.

[M.Dancer]

I don't think the Liberals will give Harper the opportunity to postpone an election. The economy will be on track by December. If the Torys are in power they will get the credit for not running around like chickens without heads and their polling will improve..meanwhile, while the economy is in recession, John Q Public is likely and naturally to blame the sitting government for not doing enough (regardless of how much or how little the government does..) so in my mind the Liberals have no choice but to pull the plug sooner rather than later.

Now it could come back to haunt the liberals. I don't think anyone in their right mind had any confidence in Dion's nebulous plan to chart Canada's course through the recession....yet Dion was supported in his mediocrity by the party and in particular Ignatieff and Rae. So the question to be asked of Ignatieff is what would you have done differently that Dion?

On the other hand I have no confidence in the Torys running a campaign that will excite or at least gain the confidence of a majority of Canadians. Their campaign ads reek of amateurishness. Their message never stays on track and Harper has the personal Charisma of a fluently english speaking Dion.

[jdobbin]

I tend to lean the other way.....Harper would likely want to postpone an election for some time yet. The economy WILL recover and is showing signs of doing so. This will be a solid testament (real or imagined) to the "steady hand on the tiller" as opposed to all the kneejerk opposition demands - again, real or imagined. The Auto crisis has mostly passed - at least the bad news part.

I think that is wishful thinking that the auto crisis has passed. There will be further cuts in capacity and cuts in the dealer networks. Thousands of people will be affected directly and indirectly.

Manufacturing is still slow and some of the jobs will not be coming back.

Interprovincial trade barriers are coming down (as announced in Ontario yesterday), an EU Free Trade pact is on the horizon.

Don't know if that is going to result in Canada roaring back in 2009.

Also, how is Harper going to be all gung ho on free trade with Europe when they ban sealing product. Seems to me that he will be battling the Europeans in the WTO the next year or more.

So we've pretty well hit bottom and still, the Conservatives are still pretty well tied with the Liberals. I think you'll find that Harper will deftly play the EI card - he'll make it seem that Ignatieff is chomping at the bit for an election instead of simply putting forward detailed ideas and working with Parliament to get something done.....and ultimately, I believe the Conservatives with tweak the system a bit to defuse the issue.

If all three Opposition parties agree to an EI change, it will look like Harper is the one chomping for an election.

It looks to me like there is an opportunity for Conservative upward momentum in the polls over the next six months. As hard as it may be to conceive, you may yet see Harper "The Statesman". I wouldn't hold my breath but one thing about Harper that many refuse to acknowledge - he never had grand ambitions to be PM for the sake of having "power" - he is first and foremost, a Public Servant.

Harper's main goals seem to be destroy the Opposition, namely the Liberals. It has been a driving ambition according to Tom Flanagan. I can't see that changing.

Edited May 6, 2009 by jdobbin

[Vancouver King]

Conservative fortunes could be significantly altered by the effects of a soon to be unleashed media campaign against the new Liberal leader.

CPC's braintrust must realize it's party's current predicament is far worse than the raw numbers would suggest and an ad blitz holds out the prospect of arresting the slide, just as the prior 2008 effort successfully defined Dion as weak so the scheduled muck might tarnish some of Ignatieff's current glow.

The succesful anti-Dion campaign was directed at a not-ready-for prime-time neophyte and mounted in the context of a booming economy but this summer's effort will be aimed at a leader with much greater stature and, more important, the timing of the negative campaign will contrast the effort sharply against the preoccupation of 90% of voters - the sour economy.

The knee-jerk reaction of reasonable Canadians will be a govt going negative in this economic context must now be devoid of answers to deal with recession. Whatever the policy solutions, blatant politicking will not be perceived as one of them.

A final roll of the dice could very well seal Harper's fate.

[Keepitsimple]

Conservative fortunes could be significantly altered by the effects of a soon to be unleashed media campaign against the new Liberal leader.

CPC's braintrust must realize it's party's current predicament is far worse than the raw numbers would suggest and an ad blitz holds out the prospect of arresting the slide, just as the prior 2008 effort successfully defined Dion as weak so the scheduled muck might tarnish some of Ignatieff's current glow.

The succesful anti-Dion campaign was directed at a not-ready-for prime-time neophyte and mounted in the context of a booming economy but this summer's effort will be aimed at a leader with much greater stature and, more important, the timing of the negative campaign will contrast the effort sharply against the preoccupation of 90% of voters - the sour economy.

The knee-jerk reaction of reasonable Canadians will be a govt going negative in this economic context must now be devoid of answers to deal with recession. Whatever the policy solutions, blatant politicking will not be perceived as one of them.

A final roll of the dice could very well seal Harper's fate.

It seems that posters and the media have been talking about this "imminent" negative media campaign for about a month yet.....but I've yet to see anything. I think Mr. Ignatieff is doing quite well at defining himself.....he just can't seem to help trying to be the smartest guy in the room. Canadians may well be ambivelent towards both parties right now....but they are not stupid. They're waiting for something of substance to come from Mr. Ignatieff and the Liberals and while they sit around contemplating their navels, the Conservatives are busy running the country.

Edited May 6, 2009 by Keepitsimple

[M.Dancer]

It seems that posters and the media have been talking about this "imminent" negative media campaign for about a month yet.....but I've yet to see anything..

The long awaited second coming has been, long awaited....i doubt they are aiming for a premature climax of their ad campaign...on the otherhand the liberals would like a climax, premature of otherwise...it's been awhile

[normanchateau]

The ONLY reason Harper gets votes out here is because he's not Liberal. NDP and Green aren't even worth mentioning in Alberta, with the exception of the single NDP riding which is at the University of Alberta (it's a protest vote by people who don't pay taxes).

No argument with your first point about why many Albertans will continue to vote for Harper no matter what he does.

However, what's your evidence that Edmonton-Strathcona voted NDP merely because "it's a protest vote by people who don't pay taxes"? People who don't pay taxes tend not to have much income. Sure, there are wealthier ridings by income in Edmonton than Edmonton-Strathcona but there are also poorer ridings. Households in Edmonton Centre, Edmonton East and Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont each have lower incomes than those in Edmonton-Strathcona. While it's true in many regions of Canada that low income ridings pull in NDP votes, this doesn't appear to explain the outcome in Edmonton. In Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont in 2008, the CPC MP took 60% of the vote and the NDP came third with 15%. In Edmonton Centre, the CPC MP took 49% of the vote and the NDP came third with 15%. In Edmonton East, the CPC MP took 51% of the vote and the NDP came second with 32%.

Given that the Liberals got less than 10% of the vote in Edmonton-Strathcona, a more likely explanation is that Liberals in that riding voted NDP strategically to defeat Rahim Jaffer. Who can forget the clown-like behaviour of Jaffer:

http://www.robertfulford.com/RahimJaffer.html

I had the delightful pleasure of listening to Jaffer's assistant impersonating him and Jaffer denying it on Vancouver radio a few years ago. Hilarious. Rahim Jaffer was as much a credit to CPC as Gurmant Grewal. Let's hope they're both candidates in the next election. Harper needs someone to groom as his successor.

[jdobbin]

Liberals edge ahead of Conservatives, says poll

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Here are the national results (difference between 2008 federal election results in brackets):

* Liberals: 35 per cent (+9)

* Conservatives: 30 per cent (-8)

* NDP: 16 per cent (-2)

* Green Party: 11 per cent (+4)

* Bloc Quebecois: 9 per cent (-1)

Support for the Liberals has grown steadily since a Dec. 3 poll, when the party was at a low of 24 per cent. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have bled support since that poll, when they had a high of 45 per cent.

"This poll, and other polls, are probably ensuring there won't be an early election," Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel told CTV.ca Monday.

And the breakdown of Quebec:

Quebec has seen the biggest change, with the Tories sinking 13 per cent since the last election:

* Bloc Quebecois: 39 per cent (-1)

* Liberals: 37 per cent (+13)

* Conservatives: 9 per cent (-13)

* NDP: 9 per cent (-3)

* Green Party: 8 per cent (+4)

[jdobbin]

Latest Leger poll:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Quebec...6589/story.html

The Léger poll indicates that the Harper government's support in Quebec remains at only 13 per cent, which could possibly wipe out most of its 10 seats in the province were an election held today.

"This is catastrophic for the Conservatives," said Jean-Marc Léger, president of Léger Marketing. "Poll after poll shows they are losing ground. It will be a tough time for them."

Here is the result as of today. BQ support has stalled according to the poll.

The low number represents a precipitous Tory drop from last year's high. Only eight months ago, polls indicated support for the Conservatives in Quebec was at 35 per cent, narrowly surpassing its main rival, the Bloc Québécois, with the Liberals a distant third.

Now, however, the Liberals have outpaced them both. Liberal support has climbed to 37 per cent while the Bloc appears stalled at 33 per cent.

The BQ would now seem to have a reason to not want an election anytime soon.

The question is whether the BQ and Tories will work together to keep Harper in power.

[waldo]

The question is whether the BQ and Tories will work together to keep Harper in power.

Harper in bed with the Separatists... film at 11!

[waldo]

Latest Leger poll:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Quebec...6589/story.html

The Léger poll indicates that the Harper government's support in Quebec remains at only 13 per cent, which could possibly wipe out most of its 10 seats in the province were an election held today.

"This is catastrophic for the Conservatives," said Jean-Marc Léger, president of Léger Marketing. "Poll after poll shows they are losing ground. It will be a tough time for them."

when the going gets tough... the tough get going

Conservative Cabinet staffers scouting for new jobs

...sensing a "good chance" the Conservatives could lose to the Liberals, a number of Cabinet staffers are already scouting out potential opportunities in the private sector, say some Cabinet staffers and Tory sources.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I can only hope that the story is accurate. That would give me much pleasure.

[Vancouver King]

when the going gets tough... the tough get going

Conservative Cabinet staffers scouting for new jobs

...sensing a "good chance" the Conservatives could lose to the Liberals, a number of Cabinet staffers are already scouting out potential opportunities in the private sector, say some Cabinet staffers and Tory sources.

Rats planning their exits as the Tory ship of state takes on water. Conservatives latest (final?) initiative of a negative ad campaign is unlikely to offset political damage from the continuing economic turmoil. Given that Canada historicaly trails Ameriica by 6 months coming out of recession, the calendar is now added to the long list of Harper enemies.

Doubt on the effectiveness of the anti-Ignatieff message is confirmed by govt insiders peddling their resumes.

Edited May 25, 2009 by Vancouver King

[jdobbin]

Latest Ipsos Reid poll:

http://www.canada.com/news/Tories+hold+sli...9387/story.html

The latest survey, conducted for Canwest News Service and Global National, shows the Harper Conservatives have edged up two percentage points in recent weeks, to capture a slim lead with 35 per cent support.

The Liberals, while significantly ahead of their showing under former leader Stephane Dion, have dropped three points to 33 per cent support of decided voters.

Quebec remains a problem for the Tories.

Despite the Conservatives inching ahead nationally, the party remains in deep trouble in Quebec. With 14 per cent support, the Conservatives trailed the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois, which were tied at 36 per cent.

Bricker described the Conservative numbers in Quebec as "pretty much disastrous" and reminiscent of the Reform party's dismal showing in the 1990s.

The seat distribution in Canada means that although the Conservatives and Liberals appear to be in a close contest, the Liberal vote is "more efficient" and would likely lead to a victory if an election was held today, Bricker said.

Edited May 26, 2009 by jdobbin

[Smallc]

Troubling numbers.

[Bryan]

Latest Ipsos Reid poll:

http://www.canada.com/news/Tories+hold+sli...9387/story.html

Wow. A couple days of targeted ads, and right back in the lead.

[waldo]

Wow. A couple days of targeted ads, and right back in the lead.

Ontario... up and down like a toilet seat!

considered accurate to plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 (snark)

and for what any single poll (among polls) is worth...

The seat distribution in Canada means that although the Conservatives and Liberals appear to be in a close contest, the Liberal vote is "more efficient" and would likely lead to a victory if an election was held today, Bricker said.

you're welcome (ps. stay tuned for upcoming "definition" ads)

[jdobbin]

Wow. A couple days of targeted ads, and right back in the lead.

Which Ipsos says have to be taken into consideration in terms of where the support is located in: Namely areas the Tories already have won. Both polls predict Liberal gains and suggest a Liberal minority.

[Smallc]

It still is bad news. I'd rather that the Liberals were able to make gains in all provinces. They probably will, but I'd like them to make some progress in the west.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Good luck with that!

[Dave_ON]

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/06/01/...al-poll357.html

Latest Poll from EKOS.

Grits ahead of the Tories ever so slightly.

The poll found 33.5 per cent of respondents would vote Liberal. Another 32.3 per cent said they would vote Conservative, and 15.1 per cent said they would vote NDP.

The poll of 10,896 randomly selected Canadians was conducted between May 7 and May 28.

The news is not all encouraging for the Liberals, whose leader, Michael Ignatieff, trailed Conservative Leader Stephen Harper when respondents were asked who would make the best prime minister.

Thirty per cent chose Harper, with 26 per cent opting for Ignatieff and 44 per cent saying neither would be the best prime minister.

[jdobbin]

Latest Angus Reid poll:

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/33542..._edge_in_canada

The opposition Liberal party is now ahead in Canada’s political scene, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies released by the Toronto Star. 33 per cent of respondents would vote for the Liberals, while 31 per cent would support the governing Conservative party.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 15 per cent, followed by the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent, and the Green party with seven per cent.

The attack polls have done more damage to Harper than they have for Ignatieff.

It also shows the Liberals have a 7-point lead over the Conservatives in Ontario (43 per cent to 36 per cent). In B.C., the Liberals are in second place behind the Conservatives (45 to 26). In Quebec, the Liberals trail the Bloc by just three points (36 to 33) with Conservatives far behind at 10 per cent.

"If you look take a look at the areas where the growth is coming, it could spell trouble for the Tories," Canseco said.

[Bryan]

A 2% lead in a poll with a margin of error of 3% is no lead at all.

Ignatieff's honeymoon is over.

[Smallc]

Uh huh, you can keep telling yourself that and it will all be OK. A 2% lead for the Liberals would probably translate into a minority government.

[jdobbin]

A 2% lead in a poll with a margin of error of 3% is no lead at all.

Ignatieff's honeymoon is over.

It is a tie. However, where are the Tories going to win more seats?