Canadian Political Polls

[Vancouver King]

First post election general poll from Nanos. Dion's guaranteed departure and Harper's flip flop on 'no deficit' seems to have taken it's toll on Tory election support numbers.

CPC 32%

Lib 30

NDP 20

Grn 10

Bloc 9

"...shows a tightening of the margin between the Conservatives and the Liberals. The initial change may suggest that the Prime Minister's comments relating to a possible deficit may not be resonating well among core Conservative supporters in Western Canada. The Dion resignation may have made the liberals a temporary parking spot for disaffected Conservative."

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls...AT-F08-T342.pdf

[Mr.Canada]

The Federal Liberals deserved to get turfed when they did. They needed to clean house and if they prove that they have done that they'll get elected back in eventually.

No one party should be the governing party forever and all being said PM Harper hasn't done anything drastic or radical as far as I can see. They've behaved like more of a custodial government then anything else. The left don't like him, not because he's some ultra right neo-con, which he isn't but because well, they're on the left and whomever isn't in power looks at themselves as victims. Right or Left.

Edited November 19, 2008 by Mr.Canada

[Kenny]

First post election general poll from Nanos. Dion's guaranteed departure and Harper's flip flop on 'no deficit' seems to have taken it's toll on Tory election support numbers.

CPC 32%

Lib 30

NDP 20

Grn 10

Bloc 9

"...shows a tightening of the margin between the Conservatives and the Liberals. The initial change may suggest that the Prime Minister's comments relating to a possible deficit may not be resonating well among core Conservative supporters in Western Canada. The Dion resignation may have made the liberals a temporary parking spot for disaffected Conservative."

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls...AT-F08-T342.pdf

The deficit issue will certainly drive some voters away from the Conservative party temporarily, but given the current state of the Liberal party and its weak policy positions I expect the CPC will maintain in its lead in the polls over the next year... much to my chagrin!

[capricorn]

"The more you read and observe about this Politics thing, you got to admit that each party is worse than the other. The one that's out always looks the best." Will Rogers

A sentiment shared by many Canadians I would think.

[BC_chick]

The deficit issue will certainly drive some voters away from the Conservative party temporarily, but given the current state of the Liberal party and its weak policy positions I expect the CPC will maintain in its lead in the polls over the next year... much to my chagrin!

Yep, with Cauchon, Manley and McKenna out.... I don't see much changing anytime soon either.

[Vancouver King]

The Federal Liberals deserved to get turfed when they did. They needed to clean house and if they prove that they have done that they'll get elected back in eventually.

Dion's replacement will be the third Liberal leader since Chretien's tainted Adscam regime. Doesn't this constitute cleaning house?

[Kenny]

Dion's replacement will be the third Liberal leader since Chretien's tainted Adscam regime. Doesn't this constitute cleaning house?

Apparently the house is not as clean as Canadian voters believe it needs to be. The Liberal party needs to return to its center position on fiscal and social issues. In recent times, it has moved too far to the left which has created a two-fold problem. Firstly, it puts the party in direct competition with the NDP and to a lesser extent the Green Party. And second, the party has alienated it loyal and longtime center-leaning voter base which has been the foundation of the party's success.

The house will not be clean until the party and its leaders return to the center and regain their broad appeal.

[madmax]

First post election general poll from Nanos. Dion's guaranteed departure and Harper's flip flop on 'no deficit' seems to have taken it's toll on Tory election support numbers.

CPC 32%

Lib 30

NDP 20

Grn 10

Bloc 9

"...shows a tightening of the margin between the Conservatives and the Liberals. The initial change may suggest that the Prime Minister's comments relating to a possible deficit may not be resonating well among core Conservative supporters in Western Canada. The Dion resignation may have made the liberals a temporary parking spot for disaffected Conservative."

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls...AT-F08-T342.pdf

If one takes this poll as an indicator of where we are today (I don't), it is interesting to see where the change is occuring.

The numbers are nearly identical across the Provinces since the election, except in Western Canada.

The CPC numbers are down from 52% to 38% in the west.

The LCP numbers are up from 16% to 27% in the west.

The GP numbers are up from 8 to 13% in the west.

THese are the only numbers that are impacting the poll data.

This would indicate to me that the CPC voter in October has parked their vote with the LPC and GP until further notice. Having seen the LPC has limited traction in Western Canada, like the GP, parking your vote with these parties is non threatening.

The NDP appears to have a non wavering base with subtle increase across the country. I wouldn't place to much into the % increase, as these figures are within the margins of error.

I always wonder why they bother showing the BQ numbers across Canada as a %?

The only number that matters is there Quebec figure which is a good indicator of the BQs strength. When the public sees BQ numbers at 9% or 10%, they don't know if they are strong or weak. Only if they go to the website will they find out the strength or weakness of the BQ.

Edited November 20, 2008 by madmax

[Vancouver King]

The numbers are nearly identical across the Provinces since the election, except in Western Canada.

The CPC numbers are down from 52% to 38% in the west.

The LCP numbers are up from 16% to 27% in the west.

The GP numbers are up from 8 to 13% in the west.

THese are the only numbers that are impacting the poll data.

Is another factor at play in the West? In the US, vocal opposition to corporate bailouts is centered among GOP politicians in Texas - something along the lines of corrupting ideological purity by govt injecting itself in the marketplace. These Reps and Senators actually favor bank and auto failures and reflect the views of many of their constituents.

Given that Alberta is Canada's Texas, could CPC losses be chalked up to similar sentiments or a lingering "let the Eastern bastards freeze in the dark"?

Edited November 20, 2008 by Vancouver King

[Vancouver King]

First major scientific poll of coalition sentiment. Here is a staggering number: 83% of Albertans don't want Dion heading a coalition.

"In the midst of a coalition showdown, Canadians are deeply divided on whether the Conservatives deserve to stay in power, with 35% saying the party should continue to govern and 40% wanting change, according to an Angus Reid Strategies poll for CTV."

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

[kimmy]

Dion's replacement will be the third Liberal leader since Chretien's tainted Adscam regime. Doesn't this constitute cleaning house?

Get rid of Joe Volpe, and we'll talk about it...

First major scientific poll of coalition sentiment. Here is a staggering number: 83% of Albertans don't want Dion heading a coalition.

Albertans don't want Dion heading a coalition? Shocking. I'm shocked. I don't know if I'm shocked or stunned, or perhaps a little of both. That Albertans would be against Dion heading a coalition leaves me both shocked and stunned.

"In the midst of a coalition showdown, Canadians are deeply divided on whether the Conservatives deserve to stay in power, with 35% saying the party should continue to govern and 40% wanting change, according to an Angus Reid Strategies poll for CTV."

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

64% of Canadians oppose Dion as Prime Minister, while just 25% support him. That restores my faith in the common sense and good judgment of Canadians.

-k

[Vancouver King]

Albertans don't want Dion heading a coalition? Shocking. I'm shocked. I don't know if I'm shocked or stunned, or perhaps a little of both. That Albertans would be against Dion heading a coalition leaves me both shocked and stunned.

-k

The shock is not Alberta's expected opposition to Dion as PM, it is the near unanimity of it. When was the last time any poll on any political subject measured an 83% response?

[kimmy]

The shock is not Alberta's expected opposition to Dion as PM, it is the near unanimity of it. When was the last time any poll on any political subject measured an 83% response?

Personally, I'm not surprised at all. Support for the coalition seems fairly mixed to start with, and it would be a whole lot lower in Alberta. 64% of Canadians don't want Dion to be PM... is it really that much of a stretch to think that Albertans hate Dion 19% more than the average Canadian?

What I did find surprising in the poll is that the percentage of people who support Dion as PM is actually less than the percentage that voted for him in the past election. Not only does it seem as though not very many BQ and NDP supporters like the idea of Dion leading this coalition, it seems as if some of the people who voted for him in the past election aren't even fond of the idea.

They really should have assigned an interim leader.

-k

[mjp]

They really should have assigned an interim leader.

I agree 100% with that. It would have allowed them to actually get the message out, for example put Jack in charge until, the next liberal leader is chosen.

[Smallc]

for example put Jack in charge until, the next liberal leader is chosen.

no thank you. A different Liberal would have been a better idea.

[kimmy]

I agree 100% with that. It would have allowed them to actually get the message out, for example put Jack in charge until, the next liberal leader is chosen.

no thank you. A different Liberal would have been a better idea.

Indeed; installing Jack would NOT help the optics of the situation.

Two names tossed about on this forum yesterday were Goodale and McCallum. Both are guys with no past or future leadership aspirations, which would help fight the impression that this was a power-grab. And, both guys with credentials on the economy side of things, which would help people that it's about helping the economy.

Ralph being a Saskatchewan guy might also help defuse some of the anger building in the West.

-k

Edited December 3, 2008 by kimmy

[Smallc]

Indeed; installing Jack would NOT help the optics of the situation.

I completely agree with everything you said. Ralph Goodale would have been the perfect choice.

[Vancouver King]

Support for the coalition seems fairly mixed to start with, and it would be a whole lot lower in Alberta. 64% of Canadians don't want Dion to be PM... is it really that much of a stretch to think that Albertans hate Dion 19% more than the average Canadian?

With only 32% favouring Harper's choice of yet another election with the balance favoring some form of coalition or undecided, it becomes obvious the Tory propaganda machine has it's work cut out for it.

What I did find surprising in the poll is that the percentage of people who support Dion as PM is actually less than the percentage that voted for him in the past election. Not only does it seem as though not very many BQ and NDP supporters like the idea of Dion leading this coalition, it seems as if some of the people who voted for him in the past election aren't even fond of the idea.

They really should have assigned an interim leader.

-k

On this we agree. The most likely scenario now seems to be a proroguation until mid January. While the CPC brings it's formidable resources to a PR battle for this month and half, Liberals could cancel it's effectiveness with a single action: jettisoning Dion as the coalition PM in favor of Michael Ignatieff on the legitimate grounds that a party emergency dictated a caucus vote and chose him as interim leader.

Edited December 3, 2008 by Vancouver King

[jdobbin]

Ralph being a Saskatchewan guy might also help defuse some of the anger building in the West.

You need Goodale in Finance. McCallum with his French would be the better leader.

I think Dion would have been a satisfactory Foreign Affairs minister.

I am afraid that Dion's office as it now stands is too amateurish.

[normanchateau]

Conservatives surge ahead in CBC-EKOS poll:

CPC 44%

Liberals 24%

NDP 14.5%

BQ 9%

Green 8%

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/12/04/...ament-poll.html

There's no chance now that the Liberals will vote non-confidence in the January budget.

[blueblood]

Conservatives surge ahead in CBC-EKOS poll:

CPC 44%

Liberals 24%

NDP 14.5%

BQ 9%

Green 8%

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/12/04/...ament-poll.html

There's no chance now that the Liberals will vote non-confidence in the January budget.

What's the undecided numbers??? That's the kicker

[Oleg Bach]

Oh yes they will - Look at McGinty...who like a mentally over driven scientologist kid who brags about belonging to Mensa --- This is the prototype of the typical liberal leader - self delluded - and full of how very very smart they are - The pride of the liberal has no bounds or common sense - they will go the bold way - and good ridens ..

[Vancouver King]

Conservatives surge ahead in CBC-EKOS poll:

CPC 44%

Liberals 24%

NDP 14.5%

BQ 9%

Green 8%

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/12/04/...ament-poll.html

There's no chance now that the Liberals will vote non-confidence in the January budget.

These numbers suggest something even more dire: the very survival of the Liberal party now depends on it immediately removing Dion from leadership. Last night's speech should be his final, unforgiveable debacle. His being pushed won't be pretty but it might save the coalition and ensure a viable Liberal party in the next election.

[Jobu]

From bourque.org:

Breaking: New polls show huge Tory gains:

Ipsos: CPC 46, LPC 23, NDP 13, BQ 9, GPC 8

Ekos: CPC 44, LPC 24, NDP 15, BQ 9, GPC 8

Compas: 72% biz leaders see worse economy under Dion coalition

[kimmy]

This is only one poll (edit: ok, it's 2 polls now) but it has to be extremely worrying news for the members of the coalition (save for Duceppe, who has nothing at stake and is probably finding this to be tremendously entertaining regardless of how it ends.)

Obviously Dion is part of the problem.

And I think bringing the Bloc Quebecois in has turned out to be a move that is extremely hard to sell to Canadians outside of Quebec. In 2005, when the opposition parties were trying to force an election (Cadman, Stronach, all that stuff...) Paul Martin kept accusing Harper of conspiring with the Bloc to bring down the government. He sensed that it was something that Canadians would resent. He knew that just the words Bloc Quebecois were poison outside of Quebec.

But but but, Harper signed an agreement with Duceppe in 2004! But but but, Day signed an agreement with Duceppe in 2000!

Maybe so. And if Harper or Day had brought the BQ into government at that time, it would have been political suicide for them, too.

-k

{"We 'ave de partie at Stornoway, and you know, Gilles, 'e is not such de bad guy! He 'ave many good story and joke, 'e enjoy darts and de billiards, and 'e play very well at de Trivial Pursuit. I t'ink that if the Canadien get to know Gilles, maybe dey warm up to 'im de same way dey warm up to me when dey get to know me..."}

Edited December 4, 2008 by kimmy