Canadian Political Polls

[blueblood]

Why is this garbage Harper now has how many days before the spending on attack ads are capped by elections rules?

excellent point.

[Martin Chriton]

I'm curious, with these high polling numbers for the CPC released, and the spectacle of the last few days, do we know anything of recent Tory fund raising efforts?

I'd imagine that they pulled in a sizable amount of funds.

[ToadBrother]

I'm curious, with these high polling numbers for the CPC released, and the spectacle of the last few days, do we know anything of recent Tory fund raising efforts?

I'd imagine that they pulled in a sizable amount of funds.

I'm beginning to agree with the Tories; there shouldn't be any taxpayer money going to parties.

In fact, I'd go one step further, remove them as tax writeoffs and would tax their contributions as earnings... you know, to help us through these tough economic times.

[August1991]

This is still Harper's to lose. If the Coalition can keep it together and find someone besides Dion or Layton to run it, then they may very well hold it together (I wouldn't hold my breath).

You and other Leftists are clueless. You don't get it.

Sad.

[ToadBrother]

You and other Leftists are clueless. You don't get it.

Sad.

I'm no Leftist, I just don't like parties who surrender their souls to arrogant, democracy-hating autocrats like Harper. But I doubt this coalition is going to make it past Christmas. They were falling apart even before the GG consented to proroguing Parliament; witness the stupifying sight of these coalition "partners" giving separate statements last night.

[Bryan]

I'm curious, with these high polling numbers for the CPC released, and the spectacle of the last few days, do we know anything of recent Tory fund raising efforts?

I'd imagine that they pulled in a sizable amount of funds.

From what I've been hearing, both donations and party memberships are up significantly in the last couple of weeks.

[Vancouver King]

From what I've been hearing, both donations and party memberships are up significantly in the last couple of weeks.

I would guess that's true for all parties. One of the few benefits out of this parliamentary crisis is a heightened awareness of federal political process by the public whose eyes normally glaze over when politics is mentioned. This should result in higher memberships and donations.

On it's own, Harper's threat to impoverish the opposition surely means the coalition members will now get serious over fund raising. How many years does it take to organize an internet program? A change at the top might unleash a torrent of funding into Liberal coffers.

[Alta4ever]

I would guess that's true for all parties. One of the few benefits out of this parliamentary crisis is a heightened awareness of federal political process by the public whose eyes normally glaze over when politics is mentioned. This should result in higher memberships and donations.

On it's own, Harper's threat to impoverish the opposition surely means the coalition members will now get serious over fund raising. How many years does it take to organize an internet program? A change at the top might unleash a torrent of funding into Liberal coffers.

The liberals are too busy planning goverrnment take overs and coups to bother fundraising besides they are still getting their pork from the tax payer.

[Vancouver King]

New Strategic Counsel poll on parliamentary crisis. This one directly measures blame. Has this affair permanently impaired Tory prospects in Quebec?

"We haven't seen this kind of dramatic regional division since the Meech Lake crisis of the Mulroney government when the fabric of the country was really being torn", Peter Donolo sid to CTV.ca on Friday.

http://ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CT...?hub=TopStories

[Jobu]

Today's COMPAS poll shows the Tories above 50%.

COMPAS: CPC 51, LPC 20, NDP 10, BQ 8, GPC 6

Canadians Call for New Election; Harper Would Win Big Majority, Sweep Seat-Rich Ontario and Overtake Liberals in Quebec

A Canadian Business/COMPAS Poll

Canadians Call for an Election

Below are highlights from a new Canada-wide, COMPAS Research poll on the recent turmoil in the House of Commons. Permission is granted to publish or broadcast results provided COMPAS Inc. is appropriately cited.

For comments or inquiries, please contact COMPAS President Conrad Winn at (416) 598-0310 or on his direct cell at (416) 460-5844.

By a more than 2:1 margin, Canadians call for another election if the choice faced by the Governor-General were between inviting Stephane Dion to form a government and hold a fresh general election weeks after the most recent one. That is the key finding from a national representative poll completed December 4, 2008.

If an election were held today, Stephen Harper would win a large majority based on nation-wide support of 51% compared to 20% for the Liberals, 10% for the NDP, 6% for the Greens, and 8% for the Bloc. Harper would sweep seat-rich Ontario with 53% of the vote compared to 24% for the Liberals and 10% for the NDP in that province and would surpass Dion in Quebec with 32% of the vote compared to 19% for the Liberals and 35% for the Bloc.

Key factors in this lightening speed transformation of public opinion:

* 66% of Canadians oppose the Bloc Quebecois having a say in who forms the government;

* 48% have confidence in Stephen Harper as Prime Minister in the current economic climate compared to 14% for Michael Ignatieff in second place, 11% for NDP leader Jack Layton, 8% for Stephane Dion, 4% for Bob Rae, and 3% for Gilles Duceppe;

* 58% believe that the Coalition's real or main motivation was a power grab while 28% perceive the Opposition as honestly believing that Harper is a poor manager of the economy;

* 61% believe that the Liberals, following their drop in support in the October election, should not be trying to form a government.

http://www.compas.ca/pages/FrameMain.html

[BC_chick]

But Jobu, the fact that they're ahead is only aspect of thing. In fact, it's a variable that could change depending on many other circumstances. If you look at the underlying sentiment of the country, that variable does not look good for Harper Tories:

Slightly more than half of respondents (55 per cent) feel that Canada is on the wrong track, and only 33 per cent feel that the country is on the right track.

Strategic Counsel pollster Peter Donolo said that such a low level of optimism for the future "is never good news for a government."

In addition, the poll shows Canadians are divided over Mr. Harper's leadership, with 47 per cent saying he "can no longer be trusted to lead the government," and 51 per cent feeling he can be trusted.

The numbers are likely related to the fact that the Conservatives were more likely to be blamed for the political crisis (45 per cent) than the opposition (40 per cent).

link

So it all depends on if you look at the glass as half full or half empty.

[jdobbin]

The one thing that I can seeing in these polls is that Canadians don't want an election.

I wonder how Harper will explain one when he calls it anyway.

[Vancouver King]

Today's COMPAS poll shows the Tories above 50%.

COMPAS: CPC 51, LPC 20, NDP 10, BQ 8, GPC 6

This poll has credibility issues. Who was interviewed, what was the size of the sample? But most of all in the context of Conservatives demonizing a Quebec institution - the Bloc - it absolutely strains credibility that, "... [the CPC] overtake Liberals in Quebec".

[White Doors]

WOW!

Who was the last person/party to poll over 50%?

I have maintained from the start that this was political suicide for the Liberals, but even I didn't see THIS large of a landslide. Unreal.

Canadians care about Canada. It's nice to see.

Will Dion go down as the worst leader of a major political party in Canada since Kim Campbell?

Looks like it.

[White Doors]

The one thing that I can seeing in these polls is that Canadians don't want an election.

I wonder how Harper will explain one when he calls it anyway.

How are you seeing that? Canadians perfer another election by a 2:1 margin rather than the coalition taking over.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Interesting poll! If its accurate Stevie the wonder will surely call an election, it would be his potential majority, his holy grail. I don't think he will, I don't think the poll is accurate. I do think politics are beginning to achieve a chain reaction type of momentum in this country.

[punked]

Interesting poll! If its accurate Stevie the wonder will surely call an election, it would be his potential majority, his holy grail. I don't think he will, I don't think the poll is accurate. I do think politics are beginning to achieve a chain reaction type of momentum in this country.

Well the internals put at least 7% undecided, 7% at not voting, and 4% at unanswered. So with close to 20% the poll is pretty poor as far as what it says eh? I am not going to trust any poll that has the NDP bleeding support and it not going to the Greens or the Libs but the Cons. Let's face it, that doesn't make any sense. This more about approval ratings I think.

[Riverwind]

I am not going to trust any poll that has the NDP bleeding support and it not going to the Greens or the Libs but the Cons.

The polls measure aggregate intentions and there is nothing improbable about NDP support going to the Libs while Lib support moves to the CPC. The poll suggests the Libs are losing more than they are gaining.

That said, it is a bit hard to believe and is probably a rogue poll. But when you look at the stream of polls the conservatives are well into majority territory if they can sustain it.

[Vancouver King]

A new Harris-Decima poll for Canadian Press confirms two likelihoods: The coalition, at least a structured one including the Bloc, is finished and perhaps at high cost to Conservatives: their next campaign in Quebec could be more difficult as Harper's strategy has isolated the province.

Ignatieff's ascendancy makes a Liberal breathrough there more plausible.

"A new poll suggests that a proposed Liberal/NDP coalition under Michael Ignatieff's leadership isn't much more palatable than an alliance under Stephane Dion".

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...08?hub=Politics

Edited December 8, 2008 by Vancouver King

[Bryan]

I would guess that's true for all parties. One of the few benefits out of this parliamentary crisis is a heightened awareness of federal political process by the public whose eyes normally glaze over when politics is mentioned. This should result in higher memberships and donations.

On it's own, Harper's threat to impoverish the opposition surely means the coalition members will now get serious over fund raising. How many years does it take to organize an internet program? A change at the top might unleash a torrent of funding into Liberal coffers.

I'm sure the NDP has probably got some increased funding, but I'm hearing rumblings that Liberals donations have actually nosedived. Some CPC fundraisers are even claiming that card carrying Liberals are donating money to the Conservatives (according to some pro CPC blogs anyway for whatever their speculations are worth).

[Vancouver King]

I'm sure the NDP has probably got some increased funding, but I'm hearing rumblings that Liberals donations have actually nosedived. Some CPC fundraisers are even claiming that card carrying Liberals are donating money to the Conservatives (according to some pro CPC blogs anyway for whatever their speculations are worth).

There was a news item 2 weeks before Oct 14th stating the NDP had raised $7 million dollars during the campaign which for the perennial third party struck me as sensational. I am certain that far outstrips the Liberals total.

I noticed political fundraising/phone soliciting is exempt from the new no-call registration program. Does anyone know if these telephone solicitors are party volunteers or professional fund raising firms?

Edited December 9, 2008 by Vancouver King

[Vancouver King]

Here's an interesting read. Wide ranging Nanos poll with questions on economy related issues. This one surprised:

QUESTION: Would you be willing, somewhat willing, somewhat unwilling or unwilling to pay more in personal taxes to support companies in difficulty, such as the auto industry?

ANSWER: 72% unwilling + 8% somewhat unwilling.

Honda and Toyota owners have spoken

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls...AT-F08-T348.pdf

[Mr.Canada]

Ignatieff will bring the LPC to the centre right instead of centre left and firm left wings. There are more votes to fight for on the centre right.

Edited December 9, 2008 by Mr.Canada

[M.Dancer]

Here's an interesting read. Wide ranging Nanos poll with questions on economy related issues. This one surprised:

QUESTION: Would you be willing, somewhat willing, somewhat unwilling or unwilling to pay more in personal taxes to support companies in difficulty, such as the auto industry?

ANSWER: 72% unwilling + 8% somewhat unwilling.

Honda and Toyota owners have spoken

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls...AT-F08-T348.pdf

Yeah I'm a Pontiac owner...and I don't support tax payer funded bailouts at what is essentially incompetancy on the part of the Big 3.

I would support a bailout of their pensions...but nothing more. If they can't do it, let them be sold.

[Smallc]

Yeah I'm a Pontiac owner...and I don't support tax payer funded bailouts at what is essentially incompetancy on the part of the Big 3.

I would support a bailout of their pensions...but nothing more. If they can't do it, let them be sold.

Each of the big 3 are in different positions. Unfortunately for all of them, if one goes under, then they'll all go under because it will bankrupt many of their suppliers.