Won't back crime bills, MPs say

[jdobbin]

The fiscal year isn't over, and we won't know until late feb whether or not this year was run on a deficit budget. All that was announch was that a b udget was run over the summer months. Your putting the cart before the horse.

However, if they do run a deficit, it will be the Liberals who are to blame. Right?

[jdobbin]

Calling one himself, no I don't see that. Forcing the Liberals to have no choice but to vote him down, I'd bet on it. I'd also bet on the CPC figuring out a wedge issue they know has public support, but that the Liberals will hate, and the public will be angry at the Liberals for opposing it.

Everyone said that Harper would not call an election before the fixed election date last time. Even if Harper had the Liberals cave on every issue and sing their praises, he would shout cowards at them, say they were making Parliament dysfunctional and call and election.

Edited November 6, 2008 by jdobbin

[craiger]

The fiscal year isn't over, and we won't know until late feb whether or not this year was run on a deficit budget. All that was announch was that a b udget was run over the summer months. Your putting the cart before the horse.

I promise you every budget for the whole length of his term runs DEFECIT. If he is lucky he can cook the books this single one, most unlike though

Edited November 6, 2008 by craiger

[jdobbin]

That would make him stupid, and harper is not a stupid man, he will not call an election on his own, because he knows that the conservatives would loose big, and you know this.

I heard the same argument about him calling the election last time too. I was told it was impossible, the legislation prevented it him from doing it, that he would lose.

[Alta4ever]

However, if they do run a deficit, it will be the Liberals who are to blame. Right?

No. It will over confident income projections.

[Alta4ever]

I heard the same argument about him calling the election last time too. I was told it was impossible, the legislation prevented it him from doing it, that he would lose.

you also predicted a landslide conservative majority.

[jdobbin]

you also predicted a landslide conservative majority.

Actually, I revised that during the election when the economy and a poor campaign sideswiped the Tories. My final prediction was a lot closer to the final tally which was a minority.

I didn't think that the Tory campaign would be so gaffe filled and so ill advised in terms of approach to Quebec.

Edited November 6, 2008 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

No. It will over confident income projections.

Which the Tories will blame the Liberals on?

[Argus]

However, if they do run a deficit, it will be the Liberals who are to blame. Right?

No

[jdobbin]

No

A few weeks ago, I posted a link here indicating that the Tories were going to just that. They were going to blame the Liberals for any possible deficit by saying they either voted for the budgets or didn't oppose them.

[Mr.Canada]

A few weeks ago, I posted a link here indicating that the Tories were going to just that. They were going to blame the Liberals for any possible deficit by saying they either voted for the budgets or didn't oppose them.

In tough economic times spending can help provoke market spending. Next year in the USA the deficit will be One Trillion dollars. Our entire economy yearly is only 1.5 Trillion dollars so you can imagine the scope of the USA's. If Canada does run a deficit it's small potatoes when you look to our friends in the south.

Edited November 6, 2008 by Mr.Canada

[Moonbox]

A few weeks ago, I posted a link here indicating that the Tories were going to just that. They were going to blame the Liberals for any possible deficit by saying they either voted for the budgets or didn't oppose them.

Jdobbin you're being silly. The conservatives will say the Liberals can't criticize their budgets effectively UNLESS they opposed them. They can't squarely blame the Liberals for the budgets altogether.

Your whole argument here is devoid of any sort of solid rationality. You and I have discussed on many occasions how Harper has shown himself to be a bit slippery when it comes to his promises.

With that said, he's not an idiot. We all know that Canadians don't like unnecessary elections. At least with the last one people with a head on their shoulders understood why it was necessary for Harper to call an election politically. It would have been disastrous not to call one given the economy would be tanking shortly. Why feed the Liberals ammo for what they declared was the inevitable defeat of Harper's government?

Anyways, now that the election has come and passed, NOBODY will be calling an election within the next year and probably at least the next two. Why? Because Canadians get tired of it and it will look negatively on whatever party triggers it. For the next year or two, Harper has a defacto majority. He'll make everything into a confidence vote because he can and because he doesn't have to cooperate with the Liberals. It looks good on the Liberals, frankly.

We'll see how he governs over these next two years but there's not a chance in the world that he'll force another election before the LPC leadership convention. Remember this conversation so that later on when you're claims turn out to be total balogna we can all have a good chuckle. Maybe by then you'll 'revise' your prediction again after it turns out to be impossible...kind of like your election predictions....

[Argus]

A few weeks ago, I posted a link here indicating that the Tories were going to just that. They were going to blame the Liberals for any possible deficit by saying they either voted for the budgets or didn't oppose them.

That would be a cop-out, in my opinion. Any deficit will arise out of a failure to make the politically tough decisions on required cuts to unnecessary programs. If Harper were governing as a conservative I would have no doubts he would make those cuts. Unfortunately, he has been governing like a Liberal. A deficit combined with no cuts to the arts programs will leave little doubt about his priorities.

[jdobbin]

Jdobbin you're being silly. The conservatives will say the Liberals can't criticize their budgets effectively UNLESS they opposed them. They can't squarely blame the Liberals for the budgets altogether.

I've merely pointed out what the Tories were going to say if a deficit came up. You commented on that post at the time. If believe that type of blame is silly, it isn't me who suggested it will happen in the first place.

Your whole argument here is devoid of any sort of solid rationality. You and I have discussed on many occasions how Harper has shown himself to be a bit slippery when it comes to his promises.

You'll notice he isn't saying how long he will govern for this time. They are downplaying this whole fixed election thing now and giving Harper room to pull the plug himself. I think that is what you mean by slippery.

With that said, he's not an idiot. We all know that Canadians don't like unnecessary elections. At least with the last one people with a head on their shoulders understood why it was necessary for Harper to call an election politically. It would have been disastrous not to call one given the economy would be tanking shortly. Why feed the Liberals ammo for what they declared was the inevitable defeat of Harper's government?

I know why he did it. I made the argument myself that he would call the election last time and was dismissed.

The blame game is being set up now so that Harper can call an election before the Liberals can re-establish themselves. If there is a deficit, blame the Liberals. Say they supported the budget. Say they didn't criticize spending. Say anything to deflect from who is actually making those decisions.

Anyways, now that the election has come and passed, NOBODY will be calling an election within the next year and probably at least the next two. Why? Because Canadians get tired of it and it will look negatively on whatever party triggers it. For the next year or two, Harper has a defacto majority. He'll make everything into a confidence vote because he can and because he doesn't have to cooperate with the Liberals. It looks good on the Liberals, frankly.

And I am saying that the Liberals will oppose a bill if it is bullied through Parliament and say that if it isn't a money bill, there is no reason for the government to call an election. It is up to Harper.

We'll see how he governs over these next two years but there's not a chance in the world that he'll force another election before the LPC leadership convention. Remember this conversation so that later on when you're claims turn out to be total balogna we can all have a good chuckle. Maybe by then you'll 'revise' your prediction again after it turns out to be impossible...kind of like your election predictions....

You just said that Harper will be forcing an election by making everything a confidence motion.

As for my election predictions, I based them on the trend at that time. I gave a revised prediction based on the gaffes, the issue of Quebec and the economy that was far more accurate.

The election was Harper's to crush both the BQ and the Liberals, possibly both forever. Each time he reached 40% in the polls, he fell back due to misreading the electorate.

[jdobbin]

In tough economic times spending can help provoke market spending. Next year in the USA the deficit will be One Trillion dollars. Our entire economy yearly is only 1.5 Trillion dollars so you can imagine the scope of the USA's. If Canada does run a deficit it's small potatoes when you look to our friends in the south.

The spending through 2006 and 2007 was done in times that can hardly be called tough economic times. If Canada goes into deficit, it is because better financial management wasn't done earlier. It was one of the main Tory promises that has repeatedly being broken. Do no spend over the increase of the population and the rate of inflation.

The Tories plan to blame the Liberals and say they would have done worse. That is going to sound rather hollow when a deficit actually does happen as some economists are predicting.

[scribblet]

I was listening to a talk show this afternoon - if the Liberals want to bring down the gov't - bring it on and make my day ! If the Liberals forced the issue, they would be decimated in an election, public opinion would not be with the Liberals. Especially as they would be seen as being soft on gun crime.

The Liberals aren't being up front either, the bill contains the amendments from the last session as agreed on by all. The Conservatives are only saying no additional substanial amendments

Apparently the crime bill is a confidence matter as was the throne speech, from which the Liberals will abstain from voting.

[jdobbin]

I was listening to a talk show this afternoon - if the Liberals want to bring down the gov't - bring it on and make my day ! If the Liberals forced the issue, they would be decimated in an election, public opinion would not be with the Liberals. Especially as they would be seen as being soft on gun crime.

If Harper wants to make all non-money bills confidence motions then we will have an election in the next months. There is nothing that compels Harper to go to an election. It will be his choice and one that the Governor General may disagree with.

The Liberals aren't being up front either, the bill contains the amendments from the last session as agreed on by all. The Conservatives are only saying no additional substanial amendments

Apparently the crime bill is a confidence matter as was the throne speech, from which the Liberals will abstain from voting.

Where did they say they would abstain on the Throne Speech? They said back on October 23 that they would not bring down the government on the Throne speech but they won't abstain. In many cases, the Opposition supports the Throne Speech as an article of good faith until they see the details later on.

If Harper makes every bill on every matter a confidence vote, he is trying to end his government or govern like he has a majority. I expect the Liberals will vote down the crime bill as it now stands and if we go to an election, it will be Harper who calls it since by tradition, his government does not have to fail as a result.

[craiger]

Dion said today his party will challenge all torie bills

[Alta4ever]

Dion said today his party will challenge all torie bills

We have heard that before

[jdobbin]

We have heard that before

If Harper wants an election, he will call it himself anyway. If there is nothing to do to stop that, then why abstain against something you don't believe in.

Harper will have an election immediately come hell or high water.

[Alta4ever]

If Harper wants an election, he will call it himself anyway. If there is nothing to do to stop that, then why abstain against something you don't believe in.

Harper will have an election immediately come hell or high water.

Thats the point right their if its something you don't beleive strongly in then you should be willing to fight an election over it.

[jdobbin]

Thats the point right their if its something you don't beleive strongly in then you should be willing to fight an election over it.

Traditionally in a minority government defeat comes on a money bill. Harper calling confidence on every issue is brinkmanship.

Let's go to an election then if Harper is going to call it anyway.

[Alta4ever]

Traditionally in a minority government defeat comes on a money bill. Harper calling confidence on every issue is brinkmanship.

Let's go to an election then if Harper is going to call it anyway.

So are you saying that conservatives can't feel strongly about their crime bill? If Haper feels strongly enough about most peices of legislation that he is willing to fight an election over anyone of them, it is his choice, his mandate from those who voted for the conservatives is to pass their legislation. Not the liberals NDP or Bloc.

[noahbody]

From the article:

The Conservative plan is "an ignorant, uninformed vision" of the justice system and how it works, said Mr. Lee, adding that harsher penalties don't work because criminals don't know the precise sentences for the crimes they commit.

When I look at the reason he gives, Lee should be an advocate for mandatory sentencing and no conditional sentences.

[jdobbin]

So are you saying that conservatives can't feel strongly about their crime bill? If Haper feels strongly enough about most peices of legislation that he is willing to fight an election over anyone of them, it is his choice, his mandate from those who voted for the conservatives is to pass their legislation. Not the liberals NDP or Bloc.

I am saying that any minority government that makes every bill a confidence motion is not isn't interested in anything but repeated elections over and over again.