Economy to rebound by 2010: Bank of Canada

[eyeball]

Yes it is the name of the game.

But I'm pretty sure you will never get a bail out.

Probably not. The funny thing is, I don't want one. I just want people to get out of my way from making an honest living.

Now I guess I have to go run the back roads and get my firewood delivered. Economics before virtue as the saying goes.

Now where's my Copperhead Road CD.

[Mr.Canada]

Steve Earle is a anti-war socialist who supports the Democrats.

[bush_cheney2004]

Sure there is - you are wrong and I am right (or at least more right - I knew the US was in recession I just wasn't sure on when it would officially start). It's a small prize but a prize nevertheless.

Yet still wrong.....must be painful to have missed it. The US was not in recession.

That is not the benchmark at all as I have demonstrated elsewhere ad nauseum.

You're a legend in your own mind.

If that was the only criteria then the NBER would not have called this a recession until January 2009 (i.e. after Q3 and Q4 2008 are shown to be negative.

As did many others....the NBER is not the only game in town.

But they have for reasons outlined here (for those besides BC 2004 who may be interested in such things).

What happened to your advertised Canadian luck?

[Oleg Bach]

You guys talk in code. Impressive. It would take me a year to get up to your speed...being old and lazy...I will stick to the simple stuff.

[msj]

Yet still wrong.....must be painful to have missed it. The US was not in recession.

You're a legend in your own mind.

As did many others....the NBER is not the only game in town.

What happened to your advertised Canadian luck?

Oleg is right for a change: you do speak in code.

The US has been in recession since December, 2007 and no matter how long you hold your hands up to your ears yelling "la la la la..." is not going to change that fact.

The NBER is the only game in the US when it comes to determining recessions (peaks and troughs in business cycles). They have been doing it for a long time.

You should know this if you would be bothered to read and learn anything - but that is probably too hard for you so I won't bother putting up another link you would just ignore anyway.

As for Canada's luck - we are lucky in so far that the US financial mess has imploded so that the CPC could change the rules they set out in their 2006 budget. While Canada will not miss the recession, things could be a lot worse had the financial industry had several more years to hand out 40 year mortgages with no money down.

Anyone with average intelligence should have figured out what I was referring to by reading my post above and reading the link. But then, you have never been average.

[bush_cheney2004]

Oleg is right for a change: you do speak in code.

The US has been in recession since December, 2007 and no matter how long you hold your hands up to your ears yelling "la la la la..." is not going to change that fact.

It may change all by itself....just wait for the NBER to revise the analysis. You can watch from outside.

The NBER is the only game in the US when it comes to determining recessions (peaks and troughs in business cycles). They have been doing it for a long time.

And the CIA provides analysis for WMD in Iraq.....LOL!

You should know this if you would be bothered to read and learn anything - but that is probably too hard for you so I won't bother putting up another link you would just ignore anyway.

I purposely ignore your links just to have you pout.....it's so cute!

As for Canada's luck - we are lucky in so far that the US financial mess has imploded so that the CPC could change the rules they set out in their 2006 budget. While Canada will not miss the recession, things could be a lot worse had the financial industry had several more years to hand out 40 year mortgages with no money down.

Yes...Canada is very lucky....it will only cost $3.8 billion...so far.

Anyone with average intelligence should have figured out what I was referring to by reading my post above and reading the link. But then, you have never been average.

The last refuge of a lost skirmish....degrade your opponent....but that only backfires on you. Enjoy your smug view, because in the end, you are always watching America, not the other way around.

[Oleg Bach]

Does CNN count? As for watching? Don't you be so smug...it was a novelty to watch American scandals constantly - Untill you became so fabulously degraded that the rot was common place - we are watching you less, because you are finally predictable...and that can be boring....don't nuke us just to make us take notice..you might be desperate for the attention soon - cos' at this point you have lost the magic.

[msj]

It may change all by itself....just wait for the NBER to revise the analysis. You can watch from outside.

And the CIA provides analysis for WMD in Iraq.....LOL!

I purposely ignore your links just to have you pout.....it's so cute!

Yes...Canada is very lucky....it will only cost $3.8 billion...so far.

The last refuge of a lost skirmish....degrade your opponent....but that only backfires on you. Enjoy your smug view, because in the end, you are always watching America, not the other way around.

Ha, so now the NBER is going to change their recession call due to revised data?

That is funny.

Although US stat keeping and methodology is so bad I suppose it would be possible.

As for the NBER being like the CIA - this is why the NBER took so long to state the obvious - they wait because they want to make sure they are making the right call. The CIA prefers to make things up first and generate the evidence after the fact to cover their bums.

I also didn't degrade you at all. I am saying that you are above average. That counts for something, I'm sure.

As for watching America - not sure why that's a big deal. I keep an eye on many things that interest me wherever in the world they may be. BFD.

Edited December 14, 2008 by msj

[bush_cheney2004]

....As for watching America - not sure why that's a big deal. I keep an eye on many things that interest me wherever in the world they may be. BFD.

Really....are you interested in who calls recessions for the rest of the "world"? LOL!

[White Doors]

Probably not. The funny thing is, I don't want one. I just want people to get out of my way from making an honest living.

Now I guess I have to go run the back roads and get my firewood delivered. Economics before virtue as the saying goes.

Now where's my Copperhead Road CD.

You don't want a bailout, but seem perfectly willing to steal?

nice moral compass you got there.

I'd suggest wearing hunter's orange too.

Wouldn't want to give a shotgun packing landowner an excuse would you?

[eyeball]

You don't want a bailout, but seem perfectly willing to steal?

nice moral compass you got there.

I'd suggest wearing hunter's orange too.

Wouldn't want to give a shotgun packing landowner an excuse would you?

Forced to steal, from Crown land. Our land in other words.

The problem is this, legal commercial access to just about any natural resource on Crown land in my region and probably throughout BC now is virtually impossible to get due to the constitutional obligation to consult and include First Nations in whatever economic activity you are proposing. This means independant owner operators and corporations alike. It does not seem to matter if you are talking about trying to make a couple of hundred bucks a day or a couple of million.

I don't fault First Nations or deny their rightful stake and interest in what happens on their traditional territories but we need to find our way to a point at which non-indigenous individuals, have the same basic human right indigenous individuals have to sustain themselves from the same Earth we all live on. I suppose my stubborn streak of independance and the fact I prefer working on my own doesn't help any. I can afford to sustain myself and my family but I can't provide for another's means of sustaining themselves. I just can't provide anyone else with a job. If I could or needed too I would. I'm alternating between feeling like Howard Roark and a rubber tapper who's fighting for his rights. I don't know whether to go postal or on a hunger strike or to follow in the fine tradition of the Ludlow's or Braveheart or Steve Earl. I guess a hunger strike is probably the most affordable.

Responsibility for the moral/legal limbo that I am is clearly our senior governments. I'm not the only one stuck in it either, the independant native guys I cut wood along side of are just as liable to be charged for cutting without a permit as myself. Strangely enough they can't seem to get a commercial permit either, the internal workings and politics of native governments seem to be just as dysfunctional as ours. Interestingly enough the authorities appear reluctant to charge anyone. Perhaps the fact we're all in economic tough times and the proximity of Christmas and the obvious need of all of us native and non-native alike, to provide for our families is a factor. Perhaps the sheer inhumanity of the situation is such that no-one wants to touch it with a ten foot pole. Perhaps the government workers who's jobs it is to crack down on us just can't in good conscience. Perhaps they've been told to lay off by their superiors - perhaps my appeal to my MLA to help resolve this has trickled down. Who know's? All I know is, I can't get the legal permission to carry on what I've done for years around here in the winter which is cut a little wood on the side to tide me over to the next season. I've tried and tried and everyone I talk to just passes me on to the next person or department or just ignores me. My wheels are squeaking but nobody has any grease it seems. Whatever moral compass the powers-that-be around here are using could use a shot of grease too because its spinning so fast there's sparks coming off it. They tell us we're liable to be charged but then they don't charge us. In the meantime we all work with one eye on the saw and one eye out for the man.

What am I supposed to do, starve, grow pot, or shit or go blind? My seaweed business sank on the same rock of constitutional obligation to consult and include First Nations I might add. It now takes the province 8 months to process my annual licence applications. I need to start harvesting in late January but I can't get a licence until June. Lots of people have told me I should just go ahead and harvest anyway but how am I supposed to commit to filling larger orders from my customers if I stand to be arrested and have my boat seized for harvesting without a licence? How can any business be expected to survive in such a f%^k-ed up situation? I can see risking my beaten up old bush truck and chain saw to eke out a living but not the thousands of dollars I have tied up in boats and my processing plant. My processing licence of course requires that I land legally obtained product so what am I to do? Again, this does not appear to be the fault of First Nations holding up my applications because I've talked to them at length and they've told me they have no problem with what I'm trying to do. The problem is clearly with the way the province acts as the intermediary between native and non-native people in resolving issues that involve access to natural resources on Crown lands or seabeds.

I see the sun is setting, time to go join the other night-crawlers I guess.

Those bag-pipes at the beginning of Copperhead Road sure are inspiring aren't they? Nothing makes my Scottish blood simmer faster than the pipes, nothing but my deepening sense of injustice that is.

If anyone has any suggestions on how to rebound from something like this I'd sure like to hear them. I doubt if there's much the BoC can do.

Edited December 15, 2008 by eyeball

[eyeball]

So much for the stupid commons...wood whore that I am, I cut a deal for a corporate forest...economics trumps patience.

I should be about as depression proof as it legally gets around here now I think, firewoods usually a hot commodity even in the worst of times.

A few more cold snaps would be alright.

[M.Dancer]

first teh Bank of Canada....now the US fed..

WASHINGTON — U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday that the economy should pull out of a recession and start growing again later this year.

But in testimony to Congress' Joint Economic Committee, Mr. Bernanke warned that even after a recovery gets under way, economic activity is likely to be subpar. That means businesses will stay cautious about hiring, driving up the United States' unemployment rate and causing “further sizable job losses” in the coming months, he said.

The recession, which started in December, 2007, already has snatched a net total of 5.1 million jobs.

The unemployment rate “could remain high for a time, even after economic growth resumes,” Mr. Bernanke said.

http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servle...y/Business/home

Not having to be political, I can say I am increasingly optimistic about the outlook here in Canada and the US.

Back to normal by next May...

[M.Dancer]

The labour market added 35,900 jobs in April, a small increase but one that puts an end to months of steep declines. And while self-employment accounted for the gain, there were signs of stability in manufacturing and construction employment – two of the sectors most hurt by the recession.

The good news took economists by surprise and strengthened the Canadian dollar.

http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servle...y/Business/home

This is bad news for the NDP and the Liberals who have been hoping that if enough people go on the dole, they would be grateful come election time. And election forced by the liberals after the rebound will simply be a review of the sound economic policies that the Conservatives put in place.

[sharkman]

So, if this is the case and the U.S. pulls out of recession later this year, that puts Obama in a dilemma. Or at least, it should. The spending of his $780 billion stimulus doesn't begin in earnest until next year. Will he still spend at the intended rate if the economy is coming along without it?

It seems to me that if it's a signed bill it's not so easy to just turn off the tap. But plenty could go wrong before then.

[geoffrey]

This is bad news for the NDP and the Liberals who have been hoping that if enough people go on the dole, they would be grateful come election time. And election forced by the liberals after the rebound will simply be a review of the sound economic policies that the Conservatives put in place.

There is no good "real news" there. A bunch of fired people started "their own businesses." The reality? They are probably doing little side jobs making 1/5 of their previous salaries. When real full time jobs increase, let me know. We can all celebrate then.

[M.Dancer]

There is no good "real news" there. A bunch of fired people started "their own businesses." The reality? They are probably doing little side jobs making 1/5 of their previous salaries. When real full time jobs increase, let me know. We can all celebrate then.

Starting your own job is a real job. Probably even more real than being an employee, given that people who have businesses often employ people...

[geoffrey]

Starting your own job is a real job. Probably even more real than being an employee, given that people who have businesses often employ people...

Oh, I agree Dancer. The self-employed are a very strong sector, in times of economic growth. It just doesn't reflect economic growth when people go from regular jobs to self-employed because they have no other choice. Many self-employed people are underemployed. Something else not reflected in the statistic. Bankruptcies and mortgage defaults are through the roof this month in Canada. Things are getting much worse. Looking at the results is more important than looking at indicators like that. People are financially crippled now. And it's getting worse.

US labour report today suprised to the downside again, another $631k jobs lost.

[M.Dancer]

US labour report today suprised to the downside again, another $631k jobs lost.

$631,000? Whats that ? 2 second tier CEO?

[geoffrey]

$631,000? Whats that ? 2 second tier CEO?

631,000.. oops.

Lots of bad news out today as well, capacity utilization down, shipments down, CPI down (if not for a tobacco tax increase). Down down down. The green shoots are wilting.