2004 Election Predictions

[August1991]

Hjalmar:

Here's my prediction maplesyrup;

Liberals ----------- 162 seats

Conservatives --- 90 seats

Bloc ---------------- 45 seats

NDP ---------------- 11 seats

We'll hold you to that.

[August1991]

Doug Fisher's prediction:

In seats, that should be something like Liberals 135; Conservatives 105; Bloc Quebecois 45; NDP 25 -- meaning a PM who is 20 seats or so short of a majority.

Doug Fisher in the Ottawa Sun

The article goes on to blame the people aropund Martin and not Martin himself. (I have never understood that kind of argument. It has been used with leaders as diverse as Nixon and Stalin.)

But the strange quote is this one at the end of his column:

The convergence of all this is causing (I believe) a jelling in the body politic of this thought: The Liberals have been in too long. It could firm into a landslide rejection, say as in 1958 and 1993.

I don't think this will happen but I have to admit the potential is there for a Liberal meltdown.

[Goldie]

I agree that a meltdown is very much possilble.

Why?

The gaffs of Paul Martin are growing at a rate that exceeds even Stockwell Day.

Normandy vs Norway and he said it twice and it didn't register in his own head. This alone would be enough for alot of Canadians to not vote for this guy because it is one of the most significant things this country has done. It stands as a more unifying event (freeing France) than free health care or flying the Maple Leaf in Quebec.

On the world stage Paul Martin is expected to shine but he called China a Southern power (see Paul Wells blog).

Failing at simple geography wasn't expected from him but is now obvious.

He used a private health clinic. It does not matter if he paid or not, the optics will hurt him. Especially since he received a donation from it's operator.

When Canadians take their heads out of the sand or todays prairie snow they will notice something just ain't right in Ottawa and fix it. Quebecers too may want to try the Third way, the middle road between the Bloq and the Liberals.

[August1991]

Kliege, we'll hold you to it:

Atlantic: Not much will change there.

NL Lib-5 CPC-2

PEI Lib-3 PEI-1

NS Lib-5 CPC-3 NDP-3

NB Lib-6 CPC-3 NDP-1

Quebec: The BQ will score big; Adscam will play a role, but also disenchantment with the Liberal provincial government.

BQ-47 Lib-28

Ontario: The CPC will probably take most of the seats won by the provincial Tories in the last election (including my home area, narrowly won by the Libs against the CA in 2000). The Ontario Liberals are already unpopular and the Libs will feel the sting, no matter what the polls say.

Lib-73 CPC-24 NDP-9

Manitoba/Saskatchewan: It depends on how a Layton-led NDP sells there. With the provincial legislatures already NDP, I suspect the populist vote may just go CPC.

MB CPC-6 NDP-5 Lib-3

SK CPC-11 NDP-2 Lib-1

Alberta: The CPC will be a juggernaut there with local boy Harper at the helm. Goodbye Annie.

CPC-28

BC: The hardest to predict! I suspect when the chips are down it will revert to an old fashion NDP-CPC battle, and the Liberals will be lucky to hang on a couple of seats.

CPC-22 NDP-12 Lib-2

North: No big changes there. NDP will take Yukon.

Lib-2 NDP-1

Totals

Lib - 133

CPC - 102

BQ - 47

NDP - 26

[maplesyrup]

My forecast for the Nova Scotia seats:

Conservatives:

Central Nova

North Nova

South Shore-St Margarets

West Nova

Liberals:

Cape Breton-Canso

Kings-Hants

New Democrats:

Darthmouth-Cole Harbour

Halifax

Halifax West

Sackville-Eastern Shore

Sydney-Victoria

Totals:

Cons 4

Lib 2

ND 5

What do you think?

[Kliege]

Why would the NDP do better then they did when Alexa was Leader?

[maplesyrup]

Well for one thing Aexa is running again and will win her seat, she hasn't left politics, and she has coattails.

[Kliege]

Looking at the Polls and the way the campiagn is going this is the outlook

Liberals- 34%

CPC- 31%

NDP-19%

Bloc-12%

Other-4%

Canada

Lib: 122

Con: 101

NDP: 30

BQ: 55

Atlantic

Lib: 18

Con: 9

NDP: 5

Quebec

Lib: 20

BQ: 55

Ontario

Lib: 68

Con: 30

NDP: 8

Man/Sask

Lib: 8

Con: 12

NDP: 8

Alberta

Lib: 0

Con: 28

BC

Lib: 6

Con: 22

NDP: 8

North

Lib: 2

NDP: 1

[August1991]

Kliege, it is easy to change your seat numbers in Ontario and get a Tory minority instead. That's why Ontario is key to this election. The other regions are more or less decided.

The only other solution would be to break Ontario down to see which seats might change. In this case, I go for min Tory 20, min Lib 35 but all others indeterminate until we get more polls.

If there is a Liberal meltdown (very unlikely), the Tories would get at best a good minority.

[Kliege]

Im just looking at the events of the last week. Those numbers will change if Paul Martin and the Liberal keep the aimless campaign they have been running for the last week. Right now its a weak Liberal minority government with the Bloc holding all the cards and thats just in the first week.

[maplesyrup]

Just in case you miss it, here's what will happen in the coming election

Mclean's Paul Wells forecasting a Liberal minority, short by a few for a majority, and other election related thoughts.

[August1991]

Barry Kay at Wilfrid Laurier 10 June 2004: LISPOP

Atlantic 28

Lib 17

CPC 11

NDP 4

Quebec 75

BQ 57

Lib 18

Ontario 106

Lib 47

CPC 51

NDP 8

Man/Sask/Terr 31

Lib 10

CPC 13

NDP 8

Alta 28

Lib 4

CPC 24

BC 36

Lib 12

CPC 19

NDP 5

Total 308

Lib 108

CPC 118

NDP 25

BQ 57

Other posters are welcome to make predictions here in this thread. (My French forum does this for cash and donates the money to charity. Did you read that Greg?)

[August1991]

Post debate, make your predictions here. Let's see if you can walk the talk, as the bureaucrats say.

Others have done it. Have you? (Your numbers must add up to 308.)

[maplesyrup]

Debates didn't change anything much for Martin or Harper.

Apparently Martin came out a bit ahead.

Both the Liberals and Conservatives are stalled, according to internal party polling.

[Reverend Blair]

Look for a slim minority (I think the Liberals, but it's too close to call) with the NDP pushing hard for proportional representation.

If the Conservatives form a minority government, look for the Bloq to try to bring them down over social issues. That could translate into Harper not being able to introduce a budget because of his anti-social platform.

[August1991]

You're on record MS:

Final Seat Projections:

Cons: 118

Libs: 80

Bloc: 60

New Dem: 50

Total: 308

There is still a big undecided vote out there, and some people are going to remain undecided right up until they are in the voter's booth.

Monday will be an exciting night.

I'm sticking with my prediction made back in March pre-Tory leadership. (At 37, I think I overestimated the NDP vote.)

[August1991]

Got you BigBlue:

114-Cons

112-Lib

58-Bloc

23-NDP

1-Green

That's my two cents.

[August1991]

Moon:

Oh ya and for my predictions:

Conservatives- 124

Liberals- 110

Bloc- 60

NDP- 14

[Kiraly]

I'll repost my predictions from Free Dominion here:

BC:

Lieberals: 9

Conservatives: 19

NDP: 7

Cadman: 1

Alberta:

Lieberals: 2

Conservatives: 26

Saskatchewan:

Lieberals: 2

Conservatives: 6

NDP: 6

Manitoba:

Lieberals: 4

Conservatives: 5

NDP: 5

Ontario:

Lieberals: 61

Conservatives: 33

NDP: 12

Quebec:

Lieberals: 28

Bloc: 47

New Brunswick:

Lieberals: 7

Conservatives: 2

NDP: 1

Nova Scotia:

Lieberals: 6

Conservatives: 3

NDP: 2

Newfoundland:

Lieberals: 5

Conservatives: 2

Territories:

Lieberals 3

Canada:

Lieberals: 131

Conservatives: 96

Bloc: 47

NDP: 33

Cadman: 1

[twister]

Here is my prediction:

THE TERRITORIES

Liberals 3

BRITISH COLUMBIA

Conservatives 24

Liberals 6

NDP 5

Independent 1

ALBERTA

Conservatives 27

Liberals 1

SASKATCHEWAN

Conservatives 10

NDP 3

Liberals 1

MANITOBA

Conservatives 7

NDP 4

Liberals 3

ONTARIO

Liberals 53

Conservatives 48

NDP 5

QUEBEC

Bloc Quebecois 64

Liberals 11

MARITIMES

Liberals 22

Conservatives 6

NDP 4

CANADA WIDE

Conservatives 122

Liberals 100

Bloc Quebecois 64

NDP 21

Independent 1

[Reverend Blair]

Is there money riding on this? If there is I'd like to put the...38 cents in my pocket on Kanada Dry as being the closest.

I'm not sure what my wife's thoughts are, but she bought beer in cans, so I'm guessing she thinks the Conservatives are going to win. Some friends are coming over on Monday, and a couple of us have a reputation for throwing things at the TV.

[Goldie]

Tories..............125

Libs.................107

Bloq................49

NDP................23

Green.............2

IND.................2

[Motoro]

.........Seats......%Vote

Lib.......118.............34

Con.....105.............30

NDP.......25.............18

Bloc.......59.............13

Grn..........0...............4

Ind/Oth...1...............1

However the numbers vary on election night, I believe the following will be true:

1. Liberals will have most seats

2. Liberal + NDP seats will be less than the 155 needed to govern

3. Conservatives will not get a single seat in Quebec

4. NDP will not surpass their best showing of 43 seats in 1988

5. Bloc will surpass their best showing of 54 seats in 1993 and then some

6. Green party will not get any seats, even in BC, but will surpass the 2% threshold needed to secure public funding

7. One independent will be elected in the riding of Surrey North, BC

Ok, some of these predictions are not that bold, but there they are. I've produced somewhat conservative projections for the party I support, so if they do better I'll be pleasantly surprised.

[falling leaf]

Here is my prediction:

Conservatives -- 162

Liberals ---------- 80

Bloc ---------------- 58

NDP ---------------- 8

Talk to you on Tuesday morning

[Big Blue Machine]

That's a wild guess