Motoro

Thanks Alas, I underestimated Conservative support in Ontario and the maritimes. Nailed the smaller parties though, especially the BQ and Green popular vote.

Here's my prediction at the last minute: _______Total__% Vote____BC____AB____SK____MB____ON____QC____ATL___Ter Con____129___35________21____28____13____8______45____9______5_____0 Lib_____90____27________6_____0_____1_____3______45____14_____19____2 NDP____37____20________9_____0_____0_____3______16____1______7_____1 Bloc____50____10________0_____0_____0_____0______0_____50_____0_____0 Grn____0_____7_________0_____0_____0_____0______0_____0______0_____0 Ind+___2_____1_________0_____0_____0_____0______0_____1______1_____0 _______308___100_______36____28____14____14_____106___75_____32____3 Motoro

Just a thought...wouldn't a better tiebreaker be whoever made the earlier prediction? (i.e. someone who made a prediction at the start of the campaign without the benefit of the last polls should get the nod over someone who waits to the last minute. All posts would have a time stamp, even the edited ones.)

jdobbin, You keep basing your entire doomsday prediction on the current "trend", making the assumption that the trend will not change, or even level off. In the last two elections we've seen changes in momentum, so what makes you think it can't happen this time? You know that old saying about a week in politics...especially true during a campaign. There are a number of things happening, or just around the corner that could yet move the numbers: -increasing financial market turmoil -release of Afghan mission cost -the leaders' debates -the delayed/not delayed proceedings on the "in-and-out scheme" & Cadman -Julie Couillard's book release -misc...there is usually something (gaffes, candidate revelations, etc.) This is not even taking into account Williams' ABC campaign or the 4-on-1 gang-up of attack ads that will ramp up as the election continues. Indeed, we are already seeing a plateau in the Conservative numbers: Wikipedia - Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2008 Since the writ dropped on Sep.7, only 2 polls out of 21 put the Conservatives above 40%. All others have them hovering around 36-40%, with the most frequent number at 38%. Nanos, which got the last two elections right, has the gap at 7 or 8 pts over its last 6 samples. If there is an upward trend, it is barely there. Really, I'm seeing a stagnation, just shy of majority territory. Not good numbers for the Libs, but not a collapse to 42 seats as you suggest. Looking at the electoral map, even in an extreme case, I can't see the Libs getting less than 55 seats, nor the Conservatives more than 185 in this election. I don't see the NDP getting 55. No Stornoway for Layton. I will agree that the Liberals are in trouble financially, but that doesn't mean they'll perform poorly come Oct.14. Anyway, even if the Liberals collapse into the financial abyss afterwards, another centrist party will be formed, because politics, just as nature, hates a vacuum. The party will just have a different name, but have most of the same players. This new party will have to emerge fairly quickly, because Harper and Layton will be moving to fill the space between them. Or maybe it'll be the Greens that grow into that space?? Disclaimer: I am not a Liberal voter. -Motoro

Well, I didn't think I would bother making a prediction, but here it is, at the last minute: Conservatives...130 Liberals.............88 NDP..................31 Bloc..................58 Green.................0 Independent........1 Sounds pessimistic for a Conservative supporter, doesn't it? Well, I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than sorely disappointed. The kicker is, as always, Ontario. If polls had given either Liberals or Conservatives a clear lead in Ontario, this would have been so much easier to predict. -Motoro

Some recent news stories in case you want some more info: Globe and Mail http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto.../BNStory/Front/ National Post http://www.canada.com/national/nationalpos...38-4c61c2c678d2 I find it laughable that the judge says Svend has been vilified enough already. I don't sense that in the media at all. If anything, the media has gone easy on him, playing up the "stress" factor. It is my opinion that judges, in the process of sentencing, shouldn't consider any punishment the public may or may not have meted out. -Motoro

I find it ridiculous that some federalist Quebecers who were parking their votes with the BQ because they were angry at the Liberals may now be switching back for fear of the separatist agenda. I mean, what kind of idiocy is that?? When have the Bloc ever purported to be anything but sovereignist? Hellooo?? And these voters are just now realizing that "Hey, these separatists may actually have a separatist agenda...can't have any of that now. Better vote Liberal to be safe." Nevermind the fact that the Bloc has no real power to effect their sovereignist agenda. Nevermind the fact that the provincial Liberal government is federalist, and will be in power for at least another 2 to 3 years. If these voters were angry enough to support the Bloc in the first place, what exactly did they think they were getting with a Bloc vote? Just because Duceppe hasn’t been talking up separation, does that mean he is suddenly federalist or even neutral? Either these voters are massively ignorant, or their votes are easily swayed by emotions in the heat of the moment, or they do things because it’s simply fashionable (i.e. bashing Liberals). Either way, one gets the impression that these voters are a marketer’s dream. They will follow the rest of the sheep over the cliff if given a chance. Does anyone else here see it that way?

New Ekos poll just out: http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentSe...ol=968793972154 Lib.......32.6 Con.....31.8 NDP........19 Bloc.....11.2 Grn........4.9 Polling done June 21-24 N=5254 +/- 1.4% Look at that sample size. Ekos had not released many polls during this election but they sure made up for it here. This is the mother poll to end all polls.

.........Seats......%Vote Lib.......118.............34 Con.....105.............30 NDP.......25.............18 Bloc.......59.............13 Grn..........0...............4 Ind/Oth...1...............1 However the numbers vary on election night, I believe the following will be true: 1. Liberals will have most seats 2. Liberal + NDP seats will be less than the 155 needed to govern 3. Conservatives will not get a single seat in Quebec 4. NDP will not surpass their best showing of 43 seats in 1988 5. Bloc will surpass their best showing of 54 seats in 1993 and then some 6. Green party will not get any seats, even in BC, but will surpass the 2% threshold needed to secure public funding 7. One independent will be elected in the riding of Surrey North, BC Ok, some of these predictions are not that bold, but there they are. I've produced somewhat conservative projections for the party I support, so if they do better I'll be pleasantly surprised.

Maplesyrup is as far from a Tory as you can get, Bryant. I'm new here but even I knew that.