Did Harper peak too early? I don't think so...

[August1991]

According to the latest four-day rolling Canadian Press-Harris-Decima survey, done in partnership with the CBC, about 32 per cent of participants said they would vote for the Conservatives. It marks yet another drop in the party's steady decline of support since its peak of 41 per cent at the start of the five-week election campaign.

Liberals rose to 25 per cent, while the NDP continued its climb with 21 per cent, according to the poll conducted Oct. 2-5.

The Green party fell a point to 12 per cent and the Bloc held steady with eight per cent voter support.

CBC

I'd like to argue with the CBC spin in this news report - implying, as it does, that Conservative support has been steadily falling during the campaign while NDP support has been steadily climbing.

Instead, I'll take this as a recent example of news reports and analyses of recent polls. The meme is that the Tories have lost their chance at a majority.

Heck, forget the CBC. Even Tom Flanagan has said so in the Globe & Mail today:

My long-term prognosis: Whether the Conservatives win a minority government (a majority now seems out of the question)...

Ith this meme, the Tories peaked too early and have thrown their chance at a majority away... or have they?

----

There are about five days left to the election. This is the final stretch. Now, all those anti-Harper people who strategically flirted with the Liberals can happily go home to the Greens or NDP, safe in the knowledge that Harper has been denied his majority. Denied his majority? Heck, according to the tenor of some news reports, Harper will be relegated to his Calgary home.

Yet, Harper opened the campaign by stating that he expected a minority. Harper knows well that any talk of a majority drives the anti-Harper voters into the Liberal camp and he loses his chance at a majority. The last thing Harper wants is talk of a majority in the final stretch.

Talk of a minority is precisely what Harper wants to see in the headlines. Divide and rule.

[jdobbin]

Talk of a minority is precisely what Harper wants to see in the headlines. Divide and rule.

So you now think he will win his majority in Quebec?

[August1991]

So you now think he will win his majority in Quebec?

No, I think the Conservatives bungled a good opportunity in Quebec. I agree with the gist of Chantal Hebert's column (if I disagree with The Toronto Star's headline writer).

The Tories are not in a "shambles" in Quebec. I think that they will keep their 10 seats and may add as many as 5 more. At the outset of this campaign, they had the chance of getting as many as 30.

OTOH, it seems to me that Harper (and Flanagan) understand that the best Conservative strategy is incrementalism and a divided opposition. Talk of a Tory majority drives the strongly anti-Harper, weak NDP/Green voters back to the Liberals and reduces the chances of the Tories winning marginal ridings.

In his article, Flanagan failed to mention that a fragmented political system favours the big fish in the small pond.

[kengs333]

I think secretly he though he had a majority in the bag from the outset and would simply coast into it while the other four parties squabbled and divided up the "left-wing" vote. It all started going down hill when he dragged his heals about the leadership debate... He knew May was going to be trouble; but by trying to keep her out, he looked bad, and then looked worse once she had a go at him. The Greens may not win a seat, but they had a considerable impact on this election...

[blueblood]

No, I think the Conservatives bungled a good opportunity in Quebec. I agree with the gist of Chantal Hebert's column (if I disagree with The Toronto Star's headline writer).

The Tories are not in a "shambles" in Quebec. I think that they will keep their 10 seats and may add as many as 5 more. At the outset of this campaign, they had the chance of getting as many as 30.

OTOH, it seems to me that Harper (and Flanagan) understand that the best Conservative strategy is incrementalism and a divided opposition. Talk of a Tory majority drives the strongly anti-Harper, weak NDP/Green voters back to the Liberals and reduces the chances of the Tories winning marginal ridings.

In his article, Flanagan failed to mention that a fragmented political system favours the big fish in the small pond.

Very interesting, Harper could win a minority and let the left form a coalition and tank the economy and do the "I told you so" to the electorate the next time around, or he can put his plan into action and hope the liberals sit on their hands again. You are right in a way, Harper never comes out a loser. The thing that drives me nuts is, it's going to be another 300 million for a majority.

[Smallc]

Very interesting, Harper could win a minority and let the left form a coalition and tank the economy

And your so sure that they would because?

[blueblood]

And your so sure that they would because?

raising taxes in a recession is not a good idea. Forcing business away is not a good idea. I'm going to take someone who's a grad student in finance argument a lot more seriously than leftist posters on here. I'll say he knows what he's talking about.

[Smallc]

raising taxes in a recession is not a good idea.

Who said anything about doing that (other than the green party)?

[M.Dancer]

And your so sure that they would because?

of their promises...to raise taxes. The one big factor in the ecomy right now is available credit. Financing that firms need to expand will be put on hold....the only way to make it worse is to take more money away from business, instead of expanding, instead of staying pat they wil contract.

[M.Dancer]

Who said anything about doing that (other than the green party)?

Ummmm....carbon tax? GST? Dion?

[Shakeyhands]

I heard Flaherty this morning on the drive in on 640AM and it seems the talking points have been sent out, early this week the economy was strong, now we're in a recession Blueblood?

MD, you still haven't read the Green Shift documents eh...

[eyeball]

of their promises...to raise taxes. The one big factor in the ecomy right now is available credit. Financing that firms need to expand will be put on hold....the only way to make it worse is to take more money away from business, instead of expanding, instead of staying pat they wil contract.

What about the income tax cut they've also been promised?

[White Doors]

Who said anything about doing that (other than the green party)?

The NDP and the liberals. Not sure on the marijuana party

[Jobu]

What about the income tax cut they've also been promised?

It's nice. Unfortunately, it's about $26b short of revenue neutral. In addition, it won't last very long when everything from fuel to clothing to food is more expensive.

[Smallc]

The NDP and the liberals. Not sure on the marijuana party

Neither has stated that they will raise taxes as far as I'm aware. One will shift taxes and one will freeze them at 2005 levels for business....I think only the Green Party has talked about raising them.

[myata]

"Peaking" does not really explain much. Harper has never presented a strong case, why exactly he needed that majority. He's been able to pass most of his agenda anyways, and he managed to dump the environment action (one of his claimed priorities) with one of the most sympathetic to the cause parliaments, ever.

[blueblood]

I heard Flaherty this morning on the drive in on 640AM and it seems the talking points have been sent out, early this week the economy was strong, now we're in a recession Blueblood?

MD, you still haven't read the Green Shift documents eh...

We could possibly be in one., it's a known fact that the economy is in turbulent times. To have the PM say that we are in a recession now or the economy is tanking is flat out irresponsible. My point still stands, raising taxes at this point in time is proposterous especially hitting our resource sector which is keeping this country afloat.

[PoliticalCitizen]

We could possibly be in one., it's a known fact that the economy is in turbulent times. To have the PM say that we are in a recession now or the economy is tanking is flat out irresponsible. My point still stands, raising taxes at this point in time is proposterous especially hitting our resource sector which is keeping this country afloat.

Green Shift is supposed to be revenue-neutral.