Will Russia be kicked out of the G8?

[August1991]

In the late 1980s, the world was talking of glasnost and perestroika. When Mikhail Gorbachev went to the UN in New York, Gorbymania caused gridlock. People were intrigued by Russia and Russians. In 1991, after an attempted coup, Boris Yeltsin became a popular figure for democracy as he stood on a tank in front of Moscow's White House. Later, Yeltsin and Russia were invited into the G8 community of democracies.

Since then, in the past 10 years or so, Russia's reputation has become horribly tarnished.

Putin changed the constitution to give the president the power to appoint provincial governors then he made a mockery of the constitution by making himself an executive PM. His party, United Russia, now dominates federal politics. There is no longer an independent media and Russian TV is a cynical wasteland. Putin arbitrarily arrested one oligarch while others own UK football teams and large boats - the single criteria appears to be loyalty to Putin. The head of BP's Russia branch was hounded out of the country when his work visa wasn't renewed. The UK accuses the Russian secret service of poisoning a dissident agent in London.

Sadly, even at the individual level, around the world, too often Russian women have a reputation for being "Natashas" or prostitutes, and Russian men have a reputation for being drunken boors.

The collapse (in all but name) of the BP-TNK joint venture is perhaps the most troubling. Putin has made it plain that he wants Russia to go it alone.

One wonders if Russians fully understand how badly they and their government are now perceived in the outside world. The high price of oil has given them an illusion of economic strength and political stability.

-----

I think Russia's invasion of Georgia is one step too far and it has more or less put paid to Russia's removal from the invite list of the G8. In 2009, Italy will host the summit and Putin has taken care to remain good friends with Berlusconi. Putin and his family holidayed at Berlusconi's home on Sardinia. Perhaps Russia will attend one of the after dinner events. Russia might remain in the G8 for 2009 but its days of international recognition as a civilized country are numbered.

Here's what Bush had to say and these are strong but measured words:

President Bush delivered yet one more tough warning to Russia today over the crisis in Georgia: "Bullying and intimidation are not acceptable ways to conduct foreign policy in the 21st century."

...

"With its action in recent days, Russia has damaged its credibility and its relations with the nations of the free world," the president said.

LA Times Edited August 16, 2008 by August1991

[PoliticalCitizen]

If Russia decides to "fix" Ukraine's "broken" pro-western course, then they probably be kicked out of everywhere

But if it's just for Georgia - nah... I don't think so.

[August1991]

If Russia decides to "fix" Ukraine's "broken" pro-western course, then they probably be kicked out of everywhere

But if it's just for Georgia - nah... I don't think so.

If Russia were to reach for the Eastern Ukraine or the Crimea, then Russia would certainly be removed from the G8. But I think Georgia, in western minds, is the Sudetenland and Munich. All things considered, despite his friendship with Berlusconi, Putin has just uninvited Medvedev from the next 2009 G8 in Italy.

This Western reaction may come as a surprise to some Russians but the fall in world oil prices will come as a bigger surprise to all Russians. This fall in world oil prices will have a terrible effect on the Russian government. Putin will no doubt pin the ensuing economic hardship on Medvedev. (As they say about the Clintons, Putin cares far more about himself than he does about Russia.)

----

It is so sad that so many ordinary, honest Russians have seen their reputation abroad so thoroughly denigrated in the past 10 years or so. In 1990, there was a lot of good will. Now, there is little or none.

As they say, one spends half one's life earning a good reputation and then the rest of one's life benefitting from it.

[Argus]

I don't think Russia really has a role in the G8. It is not a democracy, and the only bright light of i's economy is oil. Why not invite Saudi Arabia to the G8?

And Russia is not building its economy with its oil as it should. It is using it as a political weapon for world influence by selling oil below market prices to "friendly" nations, thus costing it billions. Meanwhile, the life of most Russians outside the capitol would still be considered to be impoverished by western standards.

Edited August 16, 2008 by Argus

[PoliticalCitizen]

It got kicked out already...

[August1991]

It got kicked out already...

Huh?

It seems to me that Putin has vastly misjudged the world reaction to this invasion of Georgia. Here's what Robert Gates, US Secretary of Defence had to say:

"If Russia does not step back from its aggressive posture and actions in Georgia, the US-Russian relationship could be adversely affected for years to come," he said at a Pentagon news conference.

In Moscow, General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of the Russian General Staff, voiced suspicions that a US humanitarian airlift was bringing in more than just relief supplies.

But Gates made clear that the United States has no intention of being drawn into the conflict militarily.

"I don't see any prospect for the use of military force by the United States in this situation," Gates said, noting signs that Russian forces appeared to be making preparations for a pull back.

"The United States spent 45 years working very hard to avoid a military confrontation with Russia. I see no reason to change that approach today," he said.

However, the world would look at Russia "through a different set of lenses" in the wake of its actions in Georgia, Gates said.

"The days and months to come will determine the future course of US-Russian relations," he told a Pentagon news conference.

"But, by the same token, my personal view is that there needs to be some consequences for the actions that Russia has taken against a sovereign state."

AFP Edited August 17, 2008 by August1991

[capricorn]

Harper called Russia's actions soviet era mentality.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper yesterday urged all democratic countries to speak out strongly against the "Soviet-era mentality" displayed in Russia's military aggression against Georgia.

"I must tell you that I am deeply troubled by a notion I see developing in Russia and that . . . Russia somehow has a say or some control over countries outside of its borders," Harper said during a news conference in Newfoundland.

"In my judgment, this is a very worrisome development. It really indicates a Soviet-era mentality. And I think it is something that all democratic countries should speak out strongly against, and I hope Russia will reconsider its actions."

http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/sto...86-f261abfa222a

I wonder if Putin ever truly accepted the implosion of the USSR? I also wonder if he carries some shame about the dismantling of the system he had worked within for so many years. He appears to me as wanting to bring Russia back to the days when the USSR was a superpower. IMO Russia's withdrawal from the G8 would work contrary to that goal, if indeed that is his goal.

Russia is to host the 2014 winter Olympics. Two Pennsylvania lawmakers are suggesting these games should be removed from Russia.

IOC spokeswoman Giselle Davies said Friday the IOC believes the Olympics games are "not a tool to be used by politicians."

"It is premature to make judgments about how events happening today might sit with an event taking place six years from now," Davies said in a statement, adding that 35 representatives from the Sochi 2014 are in Beijing observing the games.

http://www.examiner.com/a-1539089~Pa__lawm..._of_Russia.html

I really can't see the situation in the Caucasus improving any time soon. Perhaps the IOC should wait one year and examine whether the 2014 games should be moved. The IOC may argue the Olympics are not about politics. That's fine. But many countries plan their attendance years in advance and the prospect of their athletes competing in a region perpetually at war's door is sure to put a damper on those preparations.

[PoliticalCitizen]

Harper called Russia's actions soviet era mentality.

And we all know that Harper is far more loyal to Bush than to Canadian people.

Russia is to host the 2014 winter Olympics. Two Pennsylvania lawmakers are suggesting these games should be removed from Russia.

LOL

And I suggest that Bush should be removed from his office and placed in a zoo cage with fellow chimps.

BTW, Sochi is in Caucasus and is a beautiful place...

[bush_cheney2004]

And I suggest that Bush should be removed from his office and placed in a zoo cage with fellow chimps.

Bush will be removed from office in a very orderly manner. This routine western tradition is a mystery in politically backward Russia....even chimps know better.

[eyeball]

"I must tell you that I am deeply troubled by a notion I see developing in Russia and that . . . Russia somehow has a say or some control over countries outside of its borders," Harper said during a news conference in Newfoundland.

At least part of Harper's absence in Bejing must relate to China's intereference in other countries affairs. Its just too bad he refuses to realize that what he's said is just as true about us, the US and Britain and France and the list goes on and on...Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, Italy...

[capricorn]

And we all know that Harper is far more loyal to Bush than to Canadian people.

LOL

Of course.

And I suggest that Bush should be removed from his office and placed in a zoo cage with fellow chimps.

He would be in better company there than with some humans.

BTW, Sochi is in Caucasus and is a beautiful place...

For now.

[August1991]

And we all know that Harper is far more loyal to Bush than to Canadian people.

LOL

PC, you seem to think that Harper's comment is merely echoing some kind of Washington talking point. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Putin has just committed a terrible error and it's possible that he (and many other Russians) don't even understand that they've committed this error. (After all, Putin is so ignorant or so unschooled in the ways of democratic, civilized countries that he believes that Bush fired Dan Rather.)

Politics in Russia and the Kremlin are very rough and tumble. It is acceptable to insist on absolute loyalty, or to arrest or murder opponents. Such is Putin's mindset. These are the political ways of Tudor England or a Mafia league but not a modern democratic member of the G8.

If I'm not mistaken, Russia was never invited to the economic sessions of the G7 and its finance minister is not invited to their G7 summits.

Yeltsin made a sincere effort to make Russia a democracy and the 1996 Russian presidential election was the closest the country has ever come to a legitimate national election. This is when Clinton lobbied to have Russia included in the G8.

Putin has thrown away all of this foreign goodwill and he probably doesn't even understand that he's done it.

[PoliticalCitizen]

PC, you seem to think that Harper's comment is merely echoing some kind of Washington talking point. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Putin has just committed a terrible error and it's possible that he (and many other Russians) don't even understand that they've committed this error. (After all, Putin is so ignorant or so unschooled in the ways of democratic, civilized countries that he believes that Bush fired Dan Rather.)

Politics in Russia and the Kremlin are very rough and tumble. It is acceptable to insist on absolute loyalty, or to arrest or murder opponents. Such is Putin's mindset. These are the political ways of Tudor England or a Mafia league but not a modern democratic member of the G8.

If I'm not mistaken, Russia was never invited to the economic sessions of the G7 and its finance minister is not invited to their G7 summits.

Yeltsin made a sincere effort to make Russia a democracy and the 1996 Russian presidential election was the closest the country has ever come to a legitimate national election. This is when Clinton lobbied to have Russia included in the G8.

Putin has thrown away all of this foreign goodwill and he probably doesn't even understand that he's done it.

You have some valid points but a country is way beyond "Good Will" and "Aspiration" when its citizens are being mass murdered.

BTW, is China cool in US's books? The worst human rights record out of all the developed coutries AND not even calling itself a "Democracy".

[Argus]

You have some valid points but a country is way beyond "Good Will" and "Aspiration" when its citizens are being mass murdered.

BTW, is China cool in US's books? The worst human rights record out of all the developed coutries AND not even calling itself a "Democracy".

They are not your citizens. They are Georgian citizens. It's as if the United States decided to grant American passports to all the people in Chechnia and then told the Russians, "Hands off our citizens or we'll invade to protect them!"

And China is a tyranny of the worst order. No one is suggesting they are anything else.

[PoliticalCitizen]

They are not your citizens. They are Georgian citizens. It's as if the United States decided to grant American passports to all the people in Chechnia and then told the Russians, "Hands off our citizens or we'll invade to protect them!"

And China is a tyranny of the worst order. No one is suggesting they are anything else.

If Georgia would give South Ossetians the right to self-determination that they deserved Russia would have no reason to offer them Russian citizenship.

[Kaisa]

If Georgia would give South Ossetians the right to self-determination that they deserved Russia would have no reason to offer them Russian citizenship.

Really? Is it really that simple? So is it ok if you kick out everyone non-russian from North York, call it West Russia and declare independence?

How come Ossetians deserve right of self-determination on the Georgian land after Russians made Georgians who lived in the region leave.

How about you give Chechens right to self-determination?

Edited August 18, 2008 by Kaisa

[PoliticalCitizen]

Really? Is it really that simple? So is it ok if you kick out everyone non-russian from North York, call it West Russia and declare independence?

How come Ossetians deserve right of self-determination on the Georgian land after Russians made Georgians who lived in the region leave.

Just look at what happened in Kosovo...

How about you give Chechens right to self-determination?

They were given that right but chose to invade neighboring regions...

[PoliticalCitizen]

Reuters:

In a recent "see-if-we-care" reaction from Moscow, Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union, dismissed talk of excluding Russia from the G8, the WTO and the NATO-Russia Council as "empty threats."

"For some time now, Russians have been wondering: If our opinion counts for nothing in those institutions, do we really need them? Just to sit at the nicely set dinner table and listen to lectures?" he wrote in the New York Times this week.

[Wild Bill]

Reuters:

In a recent "see-if-we-care" reaction from Moscow, Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union, dismissed talk of excluding Russia from the G8, the WTO and the NATO-Russia Council as "empty threats."

"For some time now, Russians have been wondering: If our opinion counts for nothing in those institutions, do we really need them? Just to sit at the nicely set dinner table and listen to lectures?" he wrote in the New York Times this week.

Well, if that's the new Russian attitude then those wonderings will become reality!

There's that Slavic warrior mentality again. Pride and arrogant strutting. A bit of oil money and they think they're "cock of the walk".

It may often take a while but sooner or later everyone needs a friend. Russia should have learned from the breakup of the USSR. Conquered vassals aren't the same as friends. The Baltics, East Germany and all the others couldn't get away from Russia fast enough.

Someday Russia may need a friend and not another vassal. She may find she has only street bums like North Korea and no one with any resources to come to her aid.

America can be a bit of a brute once in a while but it can't hold a candle to the likes of Russia! At least Uncle Sam can offer candy bars, blue jeans and rock and roll.

The only things Russia makes of any worth are guns!

[PoliticalCitizen]

The only things Russia makes of any worth are guns!

... and oil ... and natural gas ...

[Wild Bill]

... and oil ... and natural gas ...

Well, I would say that shutting down pipelines to Europe as a lever on a "vassal" state is hardly a way to earn a rep as a reliable supplier...

[PoliticalCitizen]

Well, I would say that shutting down pipelines to Europe as a lever on a "vassal" state is hardly a way to earn a rep as a reliable supplier...

I meant oil and gas as a "carrot" (as opposed to cold-war style nuclear threats - the "stick")

[August1991]

"For some time now, Russians have been wondering: If our opinion counts for nothing in those institutions, do we really need them? Just to sit at the nicely set dinner table and listen to lectures?" he wrote in the New York Times this week.

Huh?

Gorbachev may have an opinion about what direction to take but he, Russian politicians and the rest of us are not looking at the same map. Some words exist in different languages but they have different meanings in each. (eg. lecture or embarazer do not mean in French or Spanish what you might think in English.)

The only way to cut through this confusion is to get to concrete matters.

President Putin gave himself the power to appoint governors of the Russian Federation's 89 states. Imagine if a US president even tried to obtain the power to name US State governors.

Gorbachev, Putin and Medvedev are not speaking the same language as Bush, McCain and Obama. It's a different world.

[PoliticalCitizen]

Gorbachev, Putin and Medvedev are not speaking the same language as Bush, McCain and Obama. It's a different world.

And both sides better realize it before it's too late...

[Oleg Bach]

And both sides better realize it before it's too late...

You are damned right - the delluded high arrogance of the Americans is stunning - to send Condi Rice to speak with authority and threaten the Russians is bizarre - it's like sending Charely Mansons minion to address the supreme court of judical reform - the Americans at present have no credibility - nor does Putin and the boys who sucked up to Bush when they thought his Mafia was untouchable - now that they know Bush and Cheney have no power - the Russians spit in their face - why would they not? Look at the crimminal acts committed by the fading American administration - how can a crimminal speak on moral issues? Impossible! Condi Rice was and is a paper tiger with her soggy butt reaking of poo.