U.S. Economic News

[eyeball]

1 hour ago, sharkman said:

Not the end of the world, the beginning of a brave new era.  Just like the run up to the crash of 2008, the powers that be keep applying band aid solutions that won’t last.  They are trying to stave off the inevitable.  

2008 came whether they wanted it to or not.  To anybody reading this, watch the movie, The Big Short.  Christian Bale, Steve Carell and Brad Pitt tell a fascinating tale.

And what you are experiencing is the intake of breath before the plunge.  We live in exciting times.

Its like we've been waiting all our lives for this.  The best thing about it is that we're all in it together.  For years now amongst my closest circle of friends we've referred to it as the Big Crunch.

I'm glad I don't live in a city.

 

Edited November 20, 2022 by eyeball

[Michael Hardner]

1 hour ago, eyeball said:

 For years now amongst my closest circle of friends we've referred to it as the Big Crunch.

I'm glad I don't live in a city.

 

Do you really think that the fall of a system that hoards all the resources at the top would end up so awfully?  I'm not putting my own assessment into this question.

[eyeball]

17 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

Do you really think that the fall of a system that hoards all the resources at the top would end up so awfully?  I'm not putting my own assessment into this question.

I have no doubt it'll be awful for billions of us. That said there will also be those for whom the times have never been better or happier.

Isn't it always that way when a civilization collapses? Like the climate warming these things happen all the time. Like sharkman days, nothing to see here.

[sharkman]

Whatever…

Here’s yet another sign that the US(and because we are so interconnected, Canada too) is heading for a major recession.  But first, some context.

You know we are in the middle of the Christmas shopping season.  That means, retail stores are ringing up the sales, taking major profits and watching the money roll in.  Hoping they make a profit for the year.

Here’s a link to an article outlining Walmart store closings across the US.  There are 154 at this date.  If I were you I’d refrain from going into debt for Christmas shopping this year.
https://graphics.wsj.com/table/walmart_012016

 

 

[Moonbox]

1 hour ago, sharkman said:

Here’s yet another sign that the US(and because we are so interconnected, Canada too) is heading for a major recession.  

Recession?  Almost certainly.  Major?  Very unlikely.  

1 hour ago, sharkman said:

You know we are in the middle of the Christmas shopping season.  That means, retail stores are ringing up the sales, taking major profits and watching the money roll in.  Hoping they make a profit for the year.

Here’s a link to an article outlining Walmart store closings across the US.  There are 154 at this date.  If I were you I’d refrain from going into debt for Christmas shopping this year.
https://graphics.wsj.com/table/walmart_012016

This chart is referenced from a wsj article from 2016, and records walmart closures over the last 6 years.  With all of your talk about the upcoming Christmas season, guess how many Walmarts have closed in the US in 2022?  Just seven.  

Not mentioned in your little narrative here?  The Walmarts that opened this year, or over the last 6 years.  For your reference:

I got my research team to run the math on the data, and it turns out that 3573 stores in 2022 is a bigger number than 3570 in 2021, but further modeling is required.  ?

Of course your narrative is the much more interesting story, so don't let facts or reality get in the way of your research.  

Edited December 4, 2022 by Moonbox

[sharkman]

Thank you moonbox, didn’t read far enough, sorry about that.

[Moonbox]

This is a common problem for everyone on this forum, or I guess people in general these days.  We're so certain of the viewpoints that we've already landed on, that we accept without question anything that confirms it and ignore anything that doesn't.  ?‍♂️

[sharkman]

Perhaps you should read the many other links and posts in this Business and Economy section.  You should be made aware that we are in for a major recession.

Edited December 5, 2022 by sharkman

[Moonbox]

4 hours ago, sharkman said:

Perhaps you should read the many other links and posts in this Business and Economy section.  You should be made aware that we are in for a major recession.

I spend 8-10 hours a day with this stuff for work, listening and speaking to actual economists and experts.  If I'm going to learn anything new, you're going to have to provide better info than links you've reposted from Twitter without actually reading them.  

[sharkman]

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

I spend 8-10 hours a day with this stuff for work, listening and speaking to actual economists and experts.  If I'm going to learn anything new, you're going to have to provide better info than links you've reposted from Twitter without actually reading them.  

Good lord.  Then why don’t you get off your duff and actually offer some information and facts on the matter at hand.  Instead of being the hall monitor…

For example, do you believe we are in for a recession or not?  Why or why not…

Edited December 5, 2022 by sharkman

[Moonbox]

56 minutes ago, sharkman said:

Good lord.  Then why don’t you get off your duff and actually offer some information and facts on the matter at hand.  Instead of being the hall monitor…

For example, do you believe we are in for a recession or not?  Why or why not…

I already told you we are in for a recession, and it's basically guaranteed.  It will also mostly likely be a minor one. Why minor?  Because it's fully anticipated (with global markets already down 15-25% this year) and therefore won't surprise or panic people out of the blue,  because the job markets are still exceptionally strong, and most importantly because the two things that are driving us into recession (inflation and rising interest rates) are negatively correlated. 

 

[eyeball]

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

I already told you we are in for a recession, and it's basically guaranteed.  It will also mostly likely be a minor one. Why minor?  Because it's fully anticipated (with global markets already down 15-25% this year) and therefore won't surprise or panic people out of the blue,  because the job markets are still exceptionally strong, and most importantly because the two things that are driving us into recession (inflation and rising interest rates) are negatively correlated.

Is there any sense whatsoever amongst the economic experts you work with that inflation is also being driven by sustainability issues in the natural environment?  Decreases in natural food production such as fish for example come to mind.  Nothing drives costs up faster than scarcity, it's not surprising that nothing drives up profits faster as well.

[Moonbox]

41 minutes ago, eyeball said:

Is there any sense whatsoever amongst the economic experts you work with that inflation is also being driven by sustainability issues in the natural environment?  Decreases in natural food production such as fish for example come to mind.  Nothing drives costs up faster than scarcity, it's not surprising that nothing drives up profits faster as well.

Sure.  The BOC just put out a report today saying grocery costs are likely to go up 5-7% next year (vs a 3-4% overall  inflation rate by EoY) and part of that is due to climate change, the Ukraine War and other supply chain disruptions, as well as increased labour and transportation costs.   

Where they can confidently measure it (or even project it), economists will try.  Sorting the numbers out and attributing it to various factors is critical in making good policy and business decisions.  

It's probably not as big a factor as you think, and it's well outside the scope of central banking to meaningfully affect, but if there is money involved you can be certain there are economists trying to figure out the numbers.  

 

[herbie]

Or they can just lie.

Each time I enter the grocery store and see prices that are double or more what they were just last summer, I wish those people would go work for my bank. Then my 2% GIC would double in value each year. More fool me I went to uni on an "OLD Math" scholarship...

Just to frustrate myself I looked up a Seattle Safeway flyer. Seems our 70c dollar means we pay FOUR TIMES as much for steaks, TEN TIMES as much for seafood and over TRIPLE the price for breakfast cereals. And we try not to mention apples 'on sale' for $3.99/lb......

[sharkman]

4 hours ago, Moonbox said:

I already told you we are in for a recession, and it's basically guaranteed.  It will also mostly likely be a minor one. Why minor?  Because it's fully anticipated (with global markets already down 15-25% this year) and therefore won't surprise or panic people out of the blue,  because the job markets are still exceptionally strong, and most importantly because the two things that are driving us into recession (inflation and rising interest rates) are negatively correlated. 

 

We shall see then.  Come January when earnings, losses and bankruptcies are announced, we’ll get a clearer picture of what we are facing.

[Moonbox]

21 hours ago, herbie said:

Each time I enter the grocery store and see prices that are double or more what they were just last summer, I wish those people would go work for my bank. Then my 2% GIC would double in value each year. More fool me I went to uni on an "OLD Math" scholarship...

Food prices and commodities are volatile.  Not too long ago, farmers in Canada were slaughtering pork herds because it cost more to feed them than they could get for selling them.  

As for GIC's, you've nobody to blame but yourself for investing in GICs during a rock-bottom rate environment when every economist (professional or amateur) knew interest rates were heading up. 

20 hours ago, sharkman said:

We shall see then.  Come January when earnings, losses and bankruptcies are announced, we’ll get a clearer picture of what we are facing.

Yes, but it's already December and the economists/analysts already have a lot of the macro data for this quarter.  You'll be disappointed to know that the sky isn't falling, and that central bankers are pointing to further rate hikes leading into the winter and perhaps as late as the early spring.   They wouldn't be doing that if the numbers were pointing to imminent doom, as you've convinced yourself. 

 

 

Edited December 6, 2022 by Moonbox

[herbie]

Volatile? Watched an interview on CTV w a lady griping about prices, right behind  her the display held butter for $3.99. It's $8.99 here. And I just snapped at my dog while making dinner "Well I should hope you like raw hamburger at $8lb!" and instantly remember saying the same thing to him about steak a year or so ago.

Just saw a recipe in the Costco book for a prime rib Xmas dinner: start w a 20lb roast... yeah like $600 for one of those in these parts.

[sharkman]

12 hours ago, herbie said:

Volatile? Watched an interview on CTV w a lady griping about prices, right behind  her the display held butter for $3.99. It's $8.99 here. And I just snapped at my dog while making dinner "Well I should hope you like raw hamburger at $8lb!" and instantly remember saying the same thing to him about steak a year or so ago.

Just saw a recipe in the Costco book for a prime rib Xmas dinner: start w a 20lb roast... yeah like $600 for one of those in these parts.

Let Moonbox’s soothing words take the sting out of the high prices for you…

[Moonbox]

I'm not looking to soothe anyone.  Feel free to role play the apocalypse all you want.  The high price of Prime Rib is definitely a sign of an economy headed for imminent collapse.  ?

[sharkman]

https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/blackrock-says-get-ready-for-a-recession-unlike-any-other-and-what-worked-in-the-past-wont-work-now/amp_articleshow/96090964.cms
 

Thanks Moonbox, but there are a growing number of captains of industry that are warning of a  deep recession, not some minor inconvenience.  Blackrock is saying what worked in the past won’t work on this one.  
 

You better call them up and correct them, pronto!

[Moonbox]

On 12/9/2022 at 5:43 PM, sharkman said:

Thanks Moonbox, but there are a growing number of captains of industry that are warning of a  deep recession, not some minor inconvenience.  Blackrock is saying what worked in the past won’t work on this one.  
 

You better call them up and correct them, pronto!

Why would you reference a Blackrock advertisement-article that doesn't even point to deep recession?  If that's your thesis, link one of these so-called captains of industry telling us that. 

Saying that what worked in the past won't work moving forward is only saying that.  You obviously didn't read the Blackrock 2023 Global Outlook (which is linked in this article), otherwise you'd know what they were actually saying.  

 

[sharkman]

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Why would you reference a Blackrock advertisement-article that doesn't even point to deep recession?  If that's your thesis, link one of these so-called captains of industry telling us that. 

Saying that what worked in the past won't work moving forward is only saying that.  You obviously didn't read the Blackrock 2023 Global Outlook (which is linked in this article), otherwise you'd know what they were actually saying.  

 

At this point you remind me of the Iraqi minister of propaganda during desert storm.  Their army was being decimated and he’s proudly proclaiming how Iraqi forces are scoring victory after victory.

Keep up the good work.

[Moonbox]

23 minutes ago, sharkman said:

At this point you remind me of the Iraqi minister of propaganda during desert storm.  Their army was being decimated and he’s proudly proclaiming how Iraqi forces are scoring victory after victory.

That's an interesting take.  

Are you perhaps lashing out because people aren't just agreeing with your silly narrative and your poorly-informed and poorly-referenced material?  

Can you show us where in that article you posted they said we're heading for deep recession?  ?

 

[Michael Hardner]

2 hours ago, sharkman said:

At this point you remind me of the Iraqi minister of propaganda during desert storm.  

You know, a very pointed criticism of your post was given and now you have a golden opportunity to show why your counterpart is dead wrong.  Saying they remind you of a bygone Iraqi official doesn't really follow and makes it look like the criticism was dead on.

I'm only following this chat from a distance but that's how it looks from here.  I

[Moonbox]

1 hour ago, Contrarian said:

Who is blacklock reporter? I came across their website with a paywall, read some information, they look mysterious to me. ?

Blackrock is just an investment management firm.  Like literally any other company that manages other people's assets, they provide Economic Outlooks to say where they see things going over the coming months/years.  They usually do it quarterly, with a bigger annual wrap-up.  Often they're interesting.

The problem for sharkman is that he's now twice provided links in this thread that don't say what he claims they do. ?‍♂️