What Went Wrong For Barack Obama

[August1991]

IMHO, this Rev Wright thingee is just a reminder that most Americans don't know who Obama is. Public opinion is fickle when it concerns a newcomer.

In the long run though - that is, going to November - as Americans get to know Obama, they'll realize that he is simply too left wing to elect him. He's not close enough to the mainstream. He can talk about changing the political landscape or paradigm or whatever the current buzzword is but it's not going to happen.

People like Henry Wallace, George McGovern, even Walter Mondale or Hubert Humphrey don't get elected President. I don't care how much charisma Obama has, the votes aren't there.

I find the most reliable predictors at Intrade.com, because that's where people put their money where their mouths are. Last week Obama was ahead of McCain 47 to 38. That dropped substantially after Wright, and they were about even.

That website is slow to load and the market is too thin. Such market's are prone to manipulation or to the stupidity of a few.

Mr. Ravitch has made a nice profit betting against Ron Paul, the libertarian who late last year was, amazingly, given almost a 10 percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee. “If you asked anyone in politics whether there was ever, at any point, a 10 percent chance of Ron Paul being the nominee,” Mr. Ravitch said, without finishing the sentence. “That sort of makes my case for me.”

In a more liquid market, Mr. Paul’s small band of intense supporters wouldn’t be able to affect his price. On Intrade, they can. Along similar lines, Al Gore is now given an 11 percent chance of being the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, which Mr. Ravitch considers silly.

NYT

The principle is sound but until there's a real profit opportunity behind it, then I don't think it will accurately provide the best prediction. It's conceivable however that at some time in the future, this is how we'll form governments.

Anyway, thanks for the link.

Edited March 25, 2008 by August1991

[BubberMiley]

Anyway, thanks for the link.

There a number of similar sites if you want to have a broader perspective. Slate provides a link to them here: http://specials.slate.com/futures/2008/

[Dog]

Obamas main man Rev Wright has now slurred Italians with his "GARLIC NOSES " comment . Is there really anyone who believes the Obama sat in this church for 23 years and did not know about the hatred spewed from his close friend ?

[Dog]

Obamas main man Rev Wright has now slurred Italians with his "GARLIC NOSES " comment . Is there really anyone who believes the Obama sat in this church for 23 years and did not know about the hatred spewed from his close friend ?

[DogOnPorch]

No black or brown Prime Ministers in Canada either.

BC2004: True. But ol' Sir James Douglas was (Governor of the colony of British Columbia et al). His mother was Guyanan and his father, Scottish. A wee bit of a stretch...I know.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Douglas_(governor)

A bit of a hero around these parts (BC) from his days with the HBC onward. Most BC cities towns have at least something named after him...street...school...etc.

As for Obama, Louis Farrakhan endorsed him, recently. That's going to bug a few people in the centre let alone the right even if Obama tries to distance himself from their praise. Hard to say if he'll be politically taken to task for it...but I supose Hillary might if cornered.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/c...,0,133587.story

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-far...0,6391391.story

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Why won't you go and look into what we are saying about the threats on Reverend Jackson's life? Here the Jews don't like Farrakhan and so they call me 'Hitler'. Well that's a good name. Hitler was a very great man. He wasn't great for me as a Black man but he was a great German and he rose Germany up from the ashes of her defeat by the united force of all of Europe and America after the First World War.

---Louis Farrakhan

[Topaz]

Obama was on The View Friday and he cleared everything up about the minister. For one thing the minister is retired and Obama said he didn`t care for what the minister said. It just another attack for the Clinton`s and the Bush`s to get him ouof the way. I even heard Hillary wanting to be VP if Obama got Prez. Since everyone that the Clinton`s know from the past lives are dead,I don`t think Obama should pick Hillary,an easier way to the White House though!

[DogOnPorch]

Obama was on The View Friday and he cleared everything up about the minister. For one thing the minister is retired and Obama said he didn`t care for what the minister said. It just another attack for the Clinton`s and the Bush`s to get him ouof the way. I even heard Hillary wanting to be VP if Obama got Prez. Since everyone that the Clinton`s know from the past lives are dead,I don`t think Obama should pick Hillary,an easier way to the White House though!

Well, he's doing a very good job at damage control.

Obama on The View: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0J7OzvRz5E

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You've got to vote for someone. It's a shame, but it's got to be done.

---Whoopi Goldberg

[Dog]

I dont know if Obama is a racist or a liar but he is definitly one or both .