Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

if the greens gain relevance this election then the left is in trouble. The NDP are radicals, the green is a one trick pony. If the Liberals are to be potentially decimated this election that leaves a huge gap in this election. I'd be curious to see what happens to the NDP, as either they will have to move to the centre or perhaps another political party will form.

They'd need a new leader for that to happen. The NDP premiers who might have been capable of that change don't speak French.

The Greens could move closer to the center but they would have to somehow shape the message that they are a party of other issues. Moreover, it would help if they have a wealth of experienced people coming up the elected ranks from the local to provincial to the federal level.

In truth, who knows. If the Liberals didn't exist and no party could or wanted to move to the centrist position, a party would have to be invented.

[Bryan]

Canadians don't elect minorities on purpose.

I don't see how you could "on purpose", you either vote for a given party or you don't, then wait for the numbers. Some people would have to intentionally vote for the party they didn't want, then hope not everyone else did too!?!

If you COULD vote for a minority somehow, that would certainly be my choice this time.

[capricorn]

The NDP are a bloody joke.

Joke or not, with what is happening to the Liberal vote, the NDP stands a chance of forming the Loyal Opposition come October 14. Hey, if the Bloc did it why not the NDP? Jack Layton is looking better to many Canadians than he once did. If leadership is a determining factor in these elections as others believe, he's right up there.

I honestly just don't see what the Cons really have going for them... other then the fact that the other parties really cant get their shit togeather.

What we are seeing is a repeat of recent previous elections in reverse. This time, it is the Liberals and the left that are fighting among themselves. Something will have to give.

Frankly my worst fear... I am not trying to fear monger hear, is that if given a majority government Harper turns out to be another Mike Harris.

You're clearly frightened. I guess we'll see just how widespread is this fear of the Conservatives among Canadians.

That all said... i really am looking forward to the national debates. Especially with the greens. If May does well. I just might vote green as a protest vote.

It's good that our system provides alternatives. In my case, the debates are not what steer my vote.

[BC_chick]

The poll pegged the Conservatives at 37 percent; the Liberals at 32 percent; the New Democrats at 13 percent; and the separatist Bloc Quebecois; and the Green Party at 9 percent each.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...lBrandChannel=0

Wouldn't it be nice if Nanos was the "closest" again this election?

(settle down CPC supporters, I know Dion's not gonna make it... just saying)

[Bryan]

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...lBrandChannel=0

Wouldn't it be nice if Nanos was the "closest" again this election?

(settle down CPC supporters, I know Dion's not gonna make it... just saying)

Are Nanos sample sizes always that small? They may have a good track record, but I still wouldn't put any stock in a survey that small.

[BC_chick]

I still wouldn't put any stock in a survey that small.

I didn't. I even said so in the post you quoted.

Edited September 12, 2008 by BC_chick

[jdobbin]

If you COULD vote for a minority somehow, that would certainly be my choice this time.

I don't think that is very likely but if the Tories don't stop stumbling soon, you never know.

[jdobbin]

Are Nanos sample sizes always that small? They may have a good track record, but I still wouldn't put any stock in a survey that small.

I believe it is the rolling poll where they add 400 new people each day that makes it fairly accurate.

The Tories are making substantial gains in all the places they need to win.

http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/78

A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.9%, 19 times out of 20 for 200 random interviews.

Over 1000 is considered a good polling sample.

[Visionseeker]

Nanos nailed both the 2004 and 2006 elections.

Still, I'm surprised at the results reflecting strategic voting so early in the race. It could be an outlier. But if it isn't Harper is in big trouble. Low NDP and Green numbers suggest that the left is swinging to Dion to counter Harper. If Nanos is right, Harper is facing a perfect storm.

Anecdotally, a committed separatist I've known for years told me he's voting for Dion because Harper's links to the ADQ make him nervous.

Quebec could be a contest that defies the conventional wisdom.

Edited September 12, 2008 by Visionseeker

[Vancouver King]

I don't think that is very likely but if the Tories don't stop stumbling soon, you never know.

Sorry, Dobbin, no sense in attempting a back pedal, you are already on record predicting anhiliation for the Liberals and the biggest majority for Harper in human history.

The new Nanos numbers suggest both major parties are exactly where they were on election night 2006. Expect further Green/NDP support melting into Dion's column. You, of all people, should know that Canadian elections seldom end the way they start.

If you quickly pull yourself together, regular readers will probably overlook your unreasonable projection as merely a premature ejac-election.

[August1991]

The new Nanos numbers suggest both major parties are exactly where they were on election night 2006. Expect further Green/NDP support melting into Dion's column. You, of all people, should know that Canadian elections seldom end the way they start.

I suspect rather that Liberal support will follow closely media claims of a Harper majority.

If NDP/Green voters believe Harper might win a majority, they'll switch to the Liberals. If they believe that Harper will lose or at best get a minority, they'll declare their true colours: Green or NDP.

I think that this has motivated Harper's declaration that he only expects to get a minority government.

In fact, there's a wild card in all this: Quebec. At 125 seats, the Tories need about 30 more seats to win a bare majority. Quebec non-Harper voters aren't motivated by a fear of a Harper majority, despite Duceppe's anemic efforts to terrify them. Harper may get as many as 20 of those 30 seats in Quebec.

[jdobbin]

Sorry, Dobbin, no sense in attempting a back pedal, you are already on record predicting anhiliation for the Liberals and the biggest majority for Harper in human history.

Don't know that I have done anything as such. The trend with the Environics poll and the Strategic Counsel poll still indicate lots of problems for the Liberals. The gaffes are not even being paid attention to in Quebec and I'm not sure the public is engaged enough to send the Tories downward over the hyper-partisan organizers in the Tory backrooms.

As much as I hope the Nanos poll shows the Liberals able to hold all their seats and remain a strong Opposition party, the Tories look to make gains in Quebec, Ontario and B.C.

The new Nanos numbers suggest both major parties are exactly where they were on election night 2006. Expect further Green/NDP support melting into Dion's column. You, of all people, should know that Canadian elections seldom end the way they start.

If you quickly pull yourself together, regular readers will probably overlook your unreasonable projection as merely a premature ejac-election.

I have made educated predictions prior on the Manitoba election and on Harper calling an election without a confidence vote.

I have not predicted the biggest majority in human history. I predicted based on the trends a massive Liberal defeat.

The fear that often drove Greens or NDP support to Liberals is not something I believe will sway the election this time around.

The weeks prior to the election I said that I believed a Tory minority is what would result from an election but timing is everything. I think not having the byelection hurt possible Liberal momentum in the fall. The fear of a Tory majority is just not there even in the Nanos polls.

This is what I said earlier on:

The trend I mention will show itself in the first week. If the Liberals perform better than the low expectations of them, they will have a hope. If they stumble, they may suffer a defeat that leaves them so damaged that they cease to be a national force for some time, perhaps forever.

The one thing I didn't expect was a poor performance from the Tories in the first week. I can't say the Liberals did well though to benefit from it. Even the Nanos poll shows gains and a dead heat in Ontario.

Edited September 12, 2008 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

I suspect rather that Liberal support will follow closely media claims of a Harper majority.

If NDP/Green voters believe Harper might win a majority, they'll switch to the Liberals. If they believe that Harper will lose or at best get a minority, they'll declare their true colours: Green or NDP.

I have seen no indication thus far that this is happening where the Green or NDP support is that soft this time around. I think we saw it more last election.

I think that this has motivated Harper's declaration that he only expects to get a minority government.

Which shows he fears that stating his confidence will somehow jinx it.

In fact, there's a wild card in all this: Quebec. At 125 seats, the Tories need about 30 more seats to win a bare majority. Quebec non-Harper voters aren't motivated by a fear of a Harper majority, despite Duceppe's anemic efforts to terrify them. Harper may get as many as 20 of those 30 seats in Quebec.

Hardly a wild card. The Bloc support is slipping in every poll. The massive defeat for the Liberals happened the last election when it slipped to third place in ballots in Quebec. The massive defeat federally takes place when Tories transfer second place placements into first place ones.

[capricorn]

The wild card I see is the high percentage of undecided voters which the Nanos poll shows sitting at 19%. A lot of voters have not decided (or are not telling) who they will vote for. Changes to these numbers will be telling over the next couple of weeks.

I seem to recall the number of undecided in the Nanos 2006 election polls was lower than this time around.

[Vancouver King]

The wild card I see is the high percentage of undecided voters which the Nanos poll shows sitting at 19%. A lot of voters have not decided (or are not telling) who they will vote for. Changes to these numbers will be telling over the next couple of weeks.

I seem to recall the number of undecided in the Nanos 2006 election polls was lower than this time around.

Unfortunately, Politics 101 tells us the undecided breakdown exactly as the decided do.

The outcome of this election will be decided in Quebec. If the CPC manages major gains there despite it's core policies running contrary to values held by most Quebec voters - and current polling says it is going to - it will constitute one of the greatest campaigning achievements I've ever witnessed.

[White Doors]

Unfortunately, Politics 101 tells us the undecided breakdown exactly as the decided do.

The outcome of this election will be decided in Quebec. If the CPC manages major gains there despite it's core policies running contrary to values held by most Quebec voters - and current polling says it is going to - it will constitute one of the greatest campaigning achievements I've ever witnessed.

No, it will be decided on BC, Ontario and Quebec.

There are 45-50 ridings that are in play.

You may want to do some research.

[capricorn]

Unfortunately, Politics 101 tells us the undecided breakdown exactly as the decided do.

And some of the undecided voter will vote for the party they think will win. It's the psychology of being on the winning side.

[jdobbin]

Latest Decima poll show large majority for Tories.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...245787220080912

A Harris-Decima poll put them at 41 percent and the Liberals at 26 percent, with the New Democrats at 14 percent, the Greens at nine, and the separatist Bloc Quebecois at eight. A Harris-Decima poll, released on Monday, put the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals 36 to 28.

A party generally needs close to 40 percent of the popular vote to win a majority of seats. Since the election campaign was launched on Sunday a series of polls have put the Conservatives within a few points of that level though the majority of the surveys have them under 40 percent.

[Moonbox]

Latest Decima poll show large majority for Tories.

40% is typically the threshold needed to gain a majority. 41% shows if anything a VERY modest majority with a margin of error in the polls.

[jdobbin]

40% is typically the threshold needed to gain a majority. 41% shows if anything a VERY modest majority with a margin of error in the polls.

As I have said many times here, the trend is to a massive majority. This poll indicates they have their majority and I expect we will see it build even more.

[Smallc]

40% is typically the threshold needed to gain a majority. 41% shows if anything a VERY modest majority with a margin of error in the polls.

Not with such a weak Liberal party number. The rolling CBC poll on the other hand, paints a very different picture. It shows the Liberals gaining and the Conservatives falling. I'm really not sure what's happening. 3 rolling polls are giving 3 very different results.

[jdobbin]

Ekos and Nanos poll results:

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/p...-new-polls.aspx

Ekos

An Ekos poll put public support for the Conservatives at 36% compared to 26% for the Liberals. The New Democrats — who are competing with the Liberals for the same bloc of voters — were at 19%.

The survey of 4,367 decided voters carried out between Sept 8 and 11 is considered accurate to within 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

But Ekos said the Conservative lead had shrunk from the 39 to 24 point advantage recorded among a smaller subset of 1,000 voters on Sept 8.

A party generally needs close to 40% of the popular vote to win a majority of seats. A series of polls have put the Conservatives within a few points of that level though the majority of the surveys have them under 40%.

Nanos

A Nanos Research daily tracking poll put the Conservatives on 38%, up one point from the previous day, with the Liberals down a point on 31%. The New Democrats were up one point at 14%.

The survey of 975 decided voters is considered accurate to within 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

[jbg]

As I have said many times here, the trend is to a massive majority. This poll indicates they have their majority and I expect we will see it build even more.

OR

For the sake of your memory of where I stand, I've said since 2006 that the Tories will win another minority.

Which is it? Or is the response going to be crickets again?

Edited September 13, 2008 by jbg

[BubberMiley]

A lot has happened in the past three weeks. I agree that a Harper majority would be bad news, but increasing your font size isn't going to bring the Liberals back. It's also not going to overpower the Ignore feature.

Edited September 13, 2008 by BubberMiley

[Ontario Loyalist]

Ban making polls public during elections. Period. I'm tired of all these polls and seeming attempt to subtly influence how people will vote.