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overthere

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Everything posted by overthere

  1. testing the waters... of their NATO allies, which do not include Russia. Was it a year ago that Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet?
  2. You assume that the globalization push will come from countries in Europe or North America that have anti corruptuion laws? I think it is much more likely to come from China India Russia etc that don't care much about that sort of First World ethic. Post WW2 was hardly an 'ideal time' for Japan. You'll recall that 'Made in Japan' was synonymous for cheap crap made by cheap labour.. The big wheel has certainly turned on that, more than once in the case of Japan. You are totally incorrect too to assume that goods made by robots are necessarily cheaper. The main purpose of robotics is to lower costs in First World countries, which have expensive labour and other inputs. A half billion $ Mitsubishi robot array is the answer in Yokohama or Oshawa assembly plant, but do not make the mistake of assuming it competes well with 1,000 Kenyan welders running generic Chinese welding equipment..
  3. Corrupt government is clearly not an obstacle to investment, and never has been. And consider the history of industrialization in Asian countries like...Japan post WW2, Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia, China, Taiwan etc. Recent, incremental It has never been the case that some massive system of infrastructure investment was then followed by prosperity. It is incremental. And it will be in Africa. Chiba is a major player there right now because they recognize how and when it happens. It helps a lot to have arable land, and Africa has quite a bit that is underuitilized. The second and more difficult challenge is reliable energy, and no it does not require a huge international continental grid to kick it off.
  4. Please put down that bong. It has to be both good and cheaper than the weed consumers have enjoyed for decades. Now you can explain how that will happen when yiou layer all those taxes and admin costs and new enforcement costs . Do take your time.
  5. No, you cannot extrapolate. The legal situation and weed industry prior to legalization in both places is completely different. I thought Trudeau has the political wit to realize how horrifically he has bungled this 'promise' already, and run hard for the tall timber by just legalizing it and dumping it on each province to enforce. Looks like I overestimated him again. I agree, except that you are using a future tense with the word 'will'. I submit that it already is a shit show, since many Canadians are still getting criminal records for possession of weed while we again wait for 'consultations with Canadians' to drag on indefinitely.. Maybe it would have been responsible and prudent to have had a plan of any kind prior to making promises?
  6. Are you going to continue to pretend that the value of EE and Bautista does not drop continually, and that their greatest value was before the season started? I agree that trading them becomes less likely as the season continues. Shame on Shapiro and Atkins for that. ETA: what should have happened was that Shapiro should have traded one of them and signed the other. That is how you maximize assets. Instead, he will get nothing at all in return. Zero. The Jays are starting to look a lot like the Vancouver Canucks, wasting the prime years of a solid core group.
  7. You are about a decade+ late with that comment ..... The monopoly is only on first class lettermail, and it did help Canada Post initially. The other leg up that the govt gave CPC was a bundle of real estate. It was mostly old buildings that had none of the modern sorting equipment required, but still it has proven useful. But they do not give them any money to survive, that was and is the deal. The arrangement was useful to CPC until perhaps 15 years ago when the advent of the internet started to seriously erode the monopoly(which again is only on pone segment of their business). The leakage of revenue from lettermail was linked directly to the huge cuts in volume. The first class lettermail monopoly has become a liability, since contingent with the monopoly was a commitment that they must deliver mail everywhere. Your small business may be so poorly organized that you rely solely on increasingly expensive and increasingly unprofitable lettermail, but the tables have turned. CPC is subisdiziing you, not the other way around. They do it solely because they have to under their old charter. CPC management recognized this long ago and have invested very heavily in the business they see as their future: delivering parcels ordered on the internet. The proof of this is a glance inside their modern, mechanized distribution plants found in every major Canadian center. They are filled with huge parcel handling equipment.
  8. The road out of extreme poverty was not obvious in the African continent until recently......... It is globalization. Turning 7 billion+ humans into middle class consumers requires an underclass/large pool of semi-skilled labour who will work for less money in poor working conditions. Until recently China and other parts of Asia(starting with Japan post WW2) have done that, but inevitably Africa will be that source as production costs in Asia rise.
  9. Have not seen this yet, but the lead character is played by Mark Rylance. I would pay to see him read the telephone directory.
  10. Recently: Love and Friendship. It's a period story , a treatment of a Jane Austen novel. That sounds tedious, it was anything but.....! It was sweet and funny, a treat to watch. Our Kind of Traitor: John Le Carre is a favorite author and has written some very fine books, but the movie versions come up short. I'd say this one is about average or perhaps a bit better.
  11. Oh, there is plenty of room for parking lots! I have been to both Stewart and Hyder several times, it is a cool part of the world. Stewart was hit hard by mine closures, real estatte there is super cheap. It is gorgeous country, the descent on the highway into Stewart is stunning, through mountains and glaciers. Stewart itself has a pretty cool vibe. If you continue north on the Stewart-Cassiar Highway, it is a beautiful trip through wilderness into the Yukon, where it connects with the Alaska Highway. A wonderful side trip is to Telegraph Creek, which follows the Stikine River Canyon, also aptly know as the Grand Canyon of Canada. I have driven the Stewart Cassiar road many times, as I go to Yukon pretty much every summer and it is one of 2 routes. It is a very good paved road, with very few communities, very few trucks, and very few tourists. The border is an oddity- in this era of Homeland Security, there is no official American presence at all when you cross You just drive into the USA. You do get checked coming back into Canada. But the trip into Alaska there is brief, the road does not go far. Just past Hyder there is an amazing state park. Several times in the summer the bears come to fed on salmon runs, and the AK govt has set up a safe way to watch an astonishing , primal scene up close. The bears gorge on spawning salmon right in front of you. If you keep going on the gravel track, you can drive far up(way up) the huge Salmon Glacier, which takes you back into Canada briefly before it dead ends. This is wonderful part of our wonderful country- one of my favorite places anywhere. Sometimes I wish more people would take the time to visit, then selfishly I am glad they don't.
  12. Larsson was +15 , playing against the best lines on the opposition, and withe Devils checking line out there too. He was an offensive Dman in junior, and the Devils play a defence-first system that he was obliged to adapt to. The Oilers still need another NHL defenceman. Hendricks and Pakarinen are two others who don't mind playing it tough.
  13. They were not rental players until the Jays management made them that by failing to act. They were valuable assets . Past tense. That is unforgivable . Mid 40s? who are you talking about? I'm talking about EE and Bautista. Martin makes $16 million, not $20m. The situation with EE and Joey is squarely on Shapiro and Atkins, and has been for at least 6 months.. They are 90 games in, and have done nothing. Unforgiveable, especially since they have assets to move- or rather did have them since the value of both EE and Bats diminsihes daily-- and are very close to being a championship team. They have failed so far.
  14. In reality, pretty much everybody at EX level and above is a 'low quality executive'. Nobody that is really good in the private sector in similar levels of authority would work for that money,, in the $100k to $150k range. It attracts people that have superior talent in moving up the civil service ladder, with little relationship to 'real world' skills and abilities. Profit? Who cares about stinking profits?
  15. Tariffs on trade for non members are part and parcel of the EU. It is the main purpose of the organization: to provide a huge and protected common market. Yes, I understand the direction and amount of the trade now. That is not the point or question. The questions are : where will the EU seek to replace the imports now coming from the UK? The answer is: mainly from within the EU. The second question is how and where does the UK send those exports to now? The answer is: unknown and very uncertain. The trade dis[parity has benefited the UK, and was a reason for remaining. Now that is lost and there is no replacement in the foreseeable future.
  16. You assume, incorrectly, that the EU would necessarily go elsewhere outside the EU to replace UK imports. In reality, every member country will fight like wolverines to take that industrial capacity for their own- of course. A couple of significant UK exports to the EU are automobiles/parts and pharmaceuticals.exported from UK to EU . The EU would just tariff those to quick exticntion, add some shifts to underproducing EU factories, and help their own chronic underemployment problems. Ended, and production switched easily. Another is aerospace(mostly Airbus) which would take longer to shift but would surely happen. The UK market is only 8% of EU exports. The EU is 44% of UK exports. That is not a problem you can simply blow off. And trade agreements with others require a quick look at a map. Europe is 40 kms from the UK. Everything else is much further.
  17. The first paret is inevitable, there is simply no way for the trillions in EU based transactions not to be moved out of London to elsewhere. I doubt that many employees with UK passports would be asked to move anywhere but out of the building and onto the dole. There would be little cooperation from EU host countries to issue work visas to unemployed British banking types. EU members are required to allow EU citizens to enter and work, but that does not apply to British citizens now. That issue was central to the result of the referendum, and it cuts both ways.
  18. I don't agree that this decision was made in anger. A lot of Britons had the rare opportunity to express themselves directly on an issue that resonated with large numbers, on both sides. I think they made the wrong choice, but I respect their reasons for making their individual choices, and their right to make it.
  19. At this point, 44% of British exports go to the EU. It is easily Britains largest customer. Once the UK invokes Section 50, there is no reason for the EU not to immediately apply tariffs, just as it does on other non-EU importers. The economy of the UK would have a shattering and immediate blow, since there is no way to immediately find another captive market like the EU . There is a very simple way for the UK to stay in the EU, and to slow immigration. The UK has had loads of immigrants for generations. What they object to now is waves of poor European Union migrants, mostly from poor east European countries. The reason they come is because there is easy access to generous social benefits, and less outright discrimination/xenophobia (as there is, for example, in France) . If the UK wants to stop the flood in its tracks, they have to change their social welfare programs to drastically limit benefits . By doing so, they mnake Britain far less atractive as a destination for resettlerment. Of course, the mighty turd on the table is that they would have to limit those benefits for everybody, not just EU immigrants. Their population is long accustomed to a generous cradle -to grave social contract. It s a tough choice for them. I doubt they have the stones to take the hard road of cutting benefits. So it will be 'hello independence'. Oddly enough, it is very likely that their economy will be so grim they will have to radically slash that plump social contract anyway. I doubt the Leave voters and campaigners saw this unintended consequence, but I expect they will soon but too late.
  20. The labour relationships at Canada Post and the mainstream federal unions could not be more different. There is no incentive whatsoever for federal management to hardball their labour relationship with unions like PSAC. None. In fact, cutting the labour force numbers also means the unimaginable horror of laying off some of the many layers of management that have been carefully built to insulate themselves against such a calamity. Second, there is no financial or business reason to cut costs of organize the workforce effectively- everybody still gets paid no matter how much is wasted. That is not the case at Canada Post, and has not been for over 30 years. There is no subsidy, the taxpayers are not backstopping bad decisions. The deal has been this: the federal govt will allow CPC as a semi-independent Crown agency lots of latitude to deliver the mail without disruption to the Canadian economy . In return, Canad Post will not be subsidized. It has worked out pretty well for over 3 decades, times that have had much tumult and some very serious existential challenges. But those challenges have had little interference/minimal involvemnent from the PMO except for two occasions, and both times for purely poltical reasons: From Mulroney in the late 80s, and from Trudeau in 2015/2016.
  21. Specifically, by directly interfering with the execution of the Canada Post business plan by forcing them suspend the switch to community mail boxes. Specifically, the Harper govt did not interfere with the long time federal mandate to allow CPC to operate their business efficiently and without subsidy. Martin and Chretien also joined Harper in doing this -not interfering in what has become an effective and coherent business operation. The last PM to stick his stupid face into their business was Mulroney, who hammered the brakes on the CPC closure of many tiny rural post offices about halfway through that program. Since then, Chretien, Martin nd Harper allowed much of that to proceed more quietly. Why? because it makes business sense. Halting the cessation of home delivery by Trudeau is equally stupid. Its main result has been to encourage what you see today: pointless labour unrest and disruption of mail delivery.
  22. Lucic is far more than a goon. He had 3(three) fights last year. The Oilers have had an urgent need to get tougher all over, they have been the softest team in the league and it shows in the loss column. Chiarelli has addressed that with adding Lucic(almost certainly), Maroon, Kassian and Gryba in his tenure. Nurse is also not adverse to getting nasty. Well done Peter. Yesterday I was choked by the Hall trade. Today- much less . The Oilers filled a major void in their lineup. Their shopping list now is shorter: a backup goalie and another genuine NHL defenceman(perhaps Jason Demers). If free agency does not work out, they still have several trade pieces: Eberle, Pouliot, RNH, and any one of three young defencemen in Nurse,Davidson or Klefbom. They also have several throw-into-the-deal people like Reinhart, Yakupov , Fayne, Gryba, and Hendricks. But this is a risky deal- he traded a proven offensive force in Hall for a defensive player that is still growing his game. But his hand is forced: he cannot go another season with a lineup that has simply failed over and over. Note too that in his junior career, Larsson was a solid offensive player. That all changed in New Jersey, who play a defence first game. Larsson was first pairing Dman who was up against the very best on other teams. Given that NJ would deploy their checking line against the other teams first line, being +15 is outstanding.
  23. Using your logic, it is therefore unforgivable that Shapiro has so far utterly failed to leverage two massive assets into anything, including young talent. Encarnacion and Bautista will depart for nothing at all in return. If that happens- and it is getting more likely every day- how does your theory play out? By bloated vet contracts you are referring to EE and Bautista. In fact, both have affordable contracts and both had serious value before the season started. I reject your premise that the Jays are victims of old players in fat contracts, because it is wrong. It is not like Shapiro inherited a team that was years from contending, as he did in Cleveland. He got a team with a couple of pieces missing, and a team that had assets that could be turned into the missing pieces. He has failed to do anything with them. The Jays are not going to win with this pitching, and the blame goes mainly and directly to Shapiro. He made deals to acquire veteran relievers to fill the holes evident from their expereince last year, and by and large those deals are big flops. The blame is on him. The failure to flip anybody like EE or Bats or any of the other assets into immediate help to build a championship team- which is certainly within the Jays reach- is on him.
  24. No, Mexico bought significant amounts meat prior to the mad cow disaster. It has built back up to half the original amount over time, now it might increase some. Mexico is the third largest consumer of CDN beef after USA and Hong Kong. No, the main reason we caved in was that Justin needs to feel the love everywhere, all the time. When this 'summit ' concludes, he wants that hug from Nieto to be heartfelt and genuine.
  25. No, Quebec is much more more integrated polticially and economically with Canada than the UK has ever been with the EU. The reason the EU is in a fair bit of trouble- and trouble well before Brexit- is that the EU is at a crossroads. To remain effective and even viable, it is essential that member countries surrender their sovereignty to a much higher degree than they do now. The EU is in a very difficult spot, which explains why they are being totally hardline hardasses right now with the UK. " Get out Get Out Get out". They know full well that they are vulnerable. They cannot afford to lose any other major players. The key to this mayhem was the 2008+ global economic crisis. It exposed some very major holes in Euro fiscal policy. They have been unable to make much progress on plugging those holes, and it really shows up now. These are perilous times. if the EU goes down, 2008 will look like the good old days because this meltdown will be monstrous and will hurt everybody everywhere.
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