Yesterday
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Thank-you, I hope you enjoy yourself too along with everyone else.
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End of US dollar as reserve currency near?
Yesterday replied to dre's topic in The Rest of the World
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2010/06/16/russia-loonie-reserve-currency.html It will be interesting to see who holds what position in the IMF after the membership standing gets revised next year. http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/economy/story.html?id=2463910 China wants the SDR but I'm not so sure about Canada or Russia. -
This is the link to 'The Accords'. You have to weed through the weird stuff and focus on just a few very interesting paragraphs of which I'll post here for reference. For the most part this paper contains all the usual rhetoric associated with conspiracy people but these paragraphs here actually have to do with the 'Global Settlements' that I mentioned earlier. I have peripheral links but I have to go back through a few months of searches to find them... This last paragraph paints a bit of a different picture of who is fighting for the asset backed system. If such is the case, perhaps Obama's struggle is more legit then at first thought. ZIRP would have to be definitely be a method to fix the fiat system to avoid the asset backed system perhaps rightly so at least for right now. Be leery of those who push an asset backed system for right now, these mentioned groups fighting for the asset backed system do not necessarily have good motivations at heart regardless of the situation at hand which could force a win for them. That is, if there is any legitimacy to this paper. I need to read more about the reform bill...
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This is the link to 'The Accords'. You have to weed through the weird stuff and focus on just a few very interesting paragraphs of which I'll post here for reference. For the most part this paper contains all the usual rhetoric associated with conspiracy people but these paragraphs here actually have to do with the 'Global Settlements' that I mentioned earlier. I have peripheral links but I go back a few months of searches to find them... This last paragraph paints a bit of a different picture of who is fighting for the asset backed system. If such is the case, perhaps Obama's struggle is more legit them at first thought. ZIRP would have to be definitely be a method to fix the fiat system to avoid the asset backed system perhaps rightly so at least for right now. Be leery of those who push an asset backed system for right now anyways these mentioned groups do not necessarily have good motivations at heart regardless of the situation at hand that could force a win for them. That is, if there is any legitimacy to this paper. I need to read more about the reform bill...
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I'm reading like crazy right now....I don't know if it will be a North American currency, good point though because that seems to be what is happening in Asian Union and EU. There was rumors awhile ago I remember reading them but I don't remember Harper being to happy about it and I look at how comfortable he is being with the EU and I wonder is it possible to share a currency from over there as opposed to over here? I must say, the other 2 things I wanted to understand/find where much easier than this. Don't give up on me though, I'm working hard on getting it. Right now I am reading The theory and practice of banking: with the elementary principles ..., Volume 2 By Henry Dunning Macleod http://books.google.ca/books?id=9_lKAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA377&lpg=PA377&dq=decrease+in+circulating+currency&source=bl&ots=RoVlVTh9NL&sig=wbiLN96RcENxVfru1edVcBgdwSg&hl=en&ei=nlEpTO2jG8OclgeO7-G8Aw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2&ved=0CBcQ6AEwATgK#v=onepage&q=decrease%20in%20circulating%20currency&f=false I put in a search title 'decreasing currency in circulation' and this is what I got of interest. It is interesting too. I would of never thought I would finances so interesting. I am honestly fascinated by it. So you think ZIRP is the action tabled to fix this problem without removing fiat money? I am beginning to understand more about it and I think I would have to agree with you. Still though, how is or is this ZIRP in any way responsible for decreasing the currency in circulation? If so it could be one of those inadvertent bonuses for the non-fiat faction. I had been looking at the money being invested in Canada by Russia, China and any others found for government bonds as part of the aggregate demand . I read up on this theory and a few others like it just briefly in the last few days. If you can't stun them with brilliance - baffle them with bull*(bury them in profits). As in...as long as my proposal is profitable it doesn't matter how good or realistic it is... I'll keep reading. I could perhaps agree with you that some things point to this globalization but more so in the finance department then in the cultural department. I can see a global currency for sure and I think that would go a long way to stabilizing global standards and I can see a very long term objective of global equalized production and trade but that's as far as it goes IMO. Culture is very dear to most and that culture stems from individuality. I can see borders being opened that have been long closed in the not to far away future but a country is a country, a living entity and one I do not foresee ever dying. The giving up of sovereignty does not need to happen for global co-operation and IMO is a platform shouldered by fanatics. Have you ever heard of 'The Accords'? I'm looking for a link. It is a paper published on a NESARA site, please don't disqualify this because of its publisher. I am not a NESARA person! However, this paper is VERY interesting and I have been trying to legitimize it for a few months now. I wonder if it is true...I'm going for the link right now... I can understand how you would think this of the UN...all I can say is thankfully so far they are not a regulating faction. They are working hard though to put stable forms of future directions for governing parties on the table for consideration.
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I agree with you about being forced. I question the source of the force. 'May the force be with you Luke'...giggle. What caused the reaching of the bottom of the discount rate? Did the implementation of ZIRP cause the bottoming out or is ZIRP a result of this? Perhaps my definition of aggregate is too broad. Looking at this situation from a point of view that global production needs to slow down and be re-balanced amongst nations (redistribution of wealth platform)I was including the desire of other developed nations to start acquiring Canadian bonds like Russia, China and quite possibly Germany as a type of aggregate demand. Since any major growth in actual production which increases money in circulation which lends to borrowing would not really support a reduction of production and a reduction in the amount of fiat based dollars in circulation. Obama is between a rock and a hard place. I am in the process of reading the new financial reform bill. As for his new watch dog group...Bernake was a major supporter of gold exchange in the 70s. I need to read more before delving to far into Obama's position...Gaitner (spelling?)spent a few weeks in China on the war path about market manipulation and massive volumes of export plus, plus...I know there too many reasons to think the US situation is aimless but there are just a few things that could paint a different more together picture. I need to get through this bill first... more later...
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Hi Pliny, do you have a background in finance of any type? I do not, that may be in part why my view may seem so different. That and the fact that this is my first foray into the world of global finance and policy. Anything I may teach you will be an inadvertent pleasure and anything you have to teach me will be well received. There is a reason for my encouraging a conversation on this conspiracy thread. Just finding you here shows me that you may have been reading/watching to some extent alternative media. How in depth is your understanding of the main concepts of wealth redistribution and global currency according to alternative information highways? It is quite a global revolution according to some. So I say to myself ‘this is what they would have me believe?’. Well, if this is the way of it I should be able to look out at the global horizon and see methods of implementation both inadvertent and contrived that would show a strategy and final outcome to support their design. The main points of interest to me are: global redistribution of wealth, global market fraud settlements and the return to asset backed dollar system globally. Where ZIRP is concerned I want to ignore the main stream rant. I find research papers most unbiased as compared the newsprint articles. Alternative media paints a picture of the bankruptcies going on around the world coupled with the blowout of market fraud and manipulation as 2 very large nails in the coffin of the current fractionated/interest/debt=asset system. In fact, there is quite a bit of bravado and certainty that this change is inevitable. So I’m thinking, since ZIRP is a major global reaction to this global recession, bankruptcies and debt there should be a way to paint this scenario to the advantage of a coming asset backed system. As for the redistribution of wealth, there is the UNFCCC G8 production tax platform for the underdeveloped and developing countries. They even call it a redistribution of wealth. The global market resolutions/settlements are negotiations of the type mentioned in the research papers of Peters and Peters Law firm UK (mondaq.com)regarding market fraud, embezzlement and tax evasion cases in the Supreme Courts of many US states and all over the world. One such resolution/settlement related to this is the Swiss relinquishing roughly 5000 bank accounts to the US all of which are fingered in various fraud/tax evasion schemes. CMKM/CMKX is another related situation, a very complex one along with FFGO, Hunt Gold and others. China’s recent uncomfortable squeeze regarding their export practices and whether or not any untoward market manipulation had been going on is another. Hence the changes of heart over their fixed interest rate and export reduction goals (amongst other reasons). This list is rather long. I’ll post some links…
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http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2008/12/deficits-cause-crowding-in-by-reducing-deflation.html Did Harper's 108 billion (roughly) increase our aggregate demand? Russia and China think so, so does the EU and Germany and likely others, at this stage in ZIRP though the Canadian people don't think so. I think we need to see what will happen when the stimulus stops. No sense really at this stage even considering the US on these terms. Nothing will increase demand for their bonds/assets any time to soon.
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Yup, I mean ZIRP. Quantitative versus qualitative.... Looking at these 2 paragraphs, especially the first one... Why would it be important to reduce the incentives to switch from private to public? So, according to this little blurb on inflation/deflation our only concern is inflation. Comparing Harper and Obama based on this alone I would have to wonder about Harper if his concept on when to stop QE next March is 'in time' for our situation and will it actually require the sale of federal assets. Is Obama going to be able to stop QE in time given the severity of their situation? Especially given the fact no-one wants to buy Fed assets. PS Given the fact that I do not personally have a background in finance and an innate need to question anything I don't understand...I couldn't tell you if Martin Wolf's idea on inflation is accurate but perhaps some of you would know...
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Hi, yes Harper did raise the rate a bit but I'm waiting to how it falls when the stimulus is finished, if it does fall. I found an article that discusses the different approaches between Harper and Obama. The US situation is much more indepth and debt ridden than ours and he is a fool to not perhaps raise the rates temporarily till the stimulus stops. Japan took too long to raise theirs enough to deal with inflation/deflation. Now they sit at .25% roughly and the economy is starting to move again without too much struggle. Perhaps Harper is just skipping the lost years learning from Japan's mistake. Time will tell eh? I can understand the fear you mentioned earlier about ZIRP, it has much potential for either good or bad. I'm curious to see what they do with it in the end.
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http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/numbers/29/1323.html Here is an article with some meat to it, found it last night looking through my links. This one is about the global financial situation and covers oh so much. Virtually every paragraph deserves a discussion...IMO this was written by someone who does not support an asset backed change but still gives many interesting facts and current directions regarding whatever change we might end up with. some excerpts...so many points to ponder... IMF, this is of particular interest to the movement of changing the international reserve currency. Of importance is who will top the IMF list when it gets revised next year. The US will be replaced and sent down the list while Canada should end up in the top 5-8th spot. If Russia and China et al get their way the IMF credit will be the international currency. I find it also interesting that there has been such an attitude change over the last 20 years regarding the IMF. This institution is a very big obstacle standing in the way of an asset backed system(removal of fractional/reserve/credit debt), I can however see this organization working at zero interest. I am not really happy myself with the growing solidity of the IMF in world opinion. We'll just have to see. Another subject this guy touches on is the global suprapower structure so often referred to as 'One World Government'. New World Order' and so on. According to this compilation of data there is no global cohesion on that front. His facts paint a financial global picture more so than a sovereignty picture but if we all can't get along in finances there is not much hope for the even deeper relations required to drop borders for real. This is his intro into what he terms are the key problems to the financial system. I believe this could be simply put by referring to it as the mess created by interest debt across the fractional reserve in conjunction with the sale of derivatives. There is so much money owed in the world, how could this debt ever be honored to allow for a switch to asset backed currency? Even with things like ZIRP which seem to be slowing down the growth of this debt (switching of public long term debt to government long term debt coupled with noticeably less credit available for more public debt)(governments buying massive chunks of public debt owned by banks), even with the reduction of 9.6% of the US fiat currency...the global debt load is the one requires real grit and determination to compromise over before this asset backed change can really take place. I had once thought that perhaps there could be some strength in the movement to reduce the IMF and even to go to the extent of clearing massive amounts of global debt, those days though are long gone. Entrance stage right...Greece who had the US open for them with massive amounts of IMF funding(extension of credits) to get through this mess.
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Hi Pliny, I'll be ready when you are. Thanks.
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Just thinking...every paper or article that I have found to date only looks at ZIRP in a situation where government debts are high. Growing higher as we speak due to the restricted margins of profits for banks (low risk government bond versus high risk public sector loans) who need the governments to spend right now(to produce bonds for sale)in order to keep themselves afloat. In fact some pretty good arguments have been levied, mostly by entities that require interest for profit, about this so called liquidity trap we seem to be in. So banks right now are happy to buy government bonds and scared to publicly lend. What is this situation going to look like when there is no more government debt per say. If Harper reaches his goals by 2020, would it be safe to say that the g. bonds for sale will lessen? This kind of an impact could force the banks to lend publicly regardless of the lower interest and higher premium as long as current interest restrictions remain on all other methods of profitability for banks. In fact, just the ending of the stimulus spending should have perhaps an impact on public lending. If done properly, without inflation or deflation to any worrying degree according to some experts. Lessons Japan either chose to ignore or failed to get. There is another side to this that I find very interesting. The fact that US fiat dollars in circulation have been reduced by 9.6% in 2009 regardless of all the stimulus spending. At first, this should be a cause for lament. However, consider that globally there is this quiet push for the removal of fiat based dollars to be replaced with asset backed dollars. One dilemma in this conversion process is the fact that there are just way to many fiat dollars of all types in circulation. Even with the current way over inflated price of gold/minerals there just simply is not enough asset to back every dollar. Is this reduction then a good thing? I have some links that debate this liquidity trap issue, I'll post them tonight along with some that discuss this dollar conversion around the world. Looking at our current system of debt equaling asset et al I see some major changes coming down the pipe.
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Fake Lake Debut Causes Barely a Ripple
Yesterday replied to Keepitsimple's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
Not if Cameron gets his way... -
The 2009 liquidity trap: a critical analysis of the monetary policy response Ricardo Cabral1,2 January 9th, 2009 This is the title of a paper that I found and read last night. The most enlightening to date regarding Zirp, its effect on this system, how it should work and what is being done wrong. Going back through the links to link it here they are not working, big surprise. Hopefully with the title if you do look for this, you will find it. There should be a way for me to link pdf files... Here are a few excerpts from it at any rate just to give you an idea. He does make some good points. In this paper, I analyze the unorthodox monetary policy measures that have been undertaken thus far and argue that monetary policy should be modified so as to create the appropriate incentives for financial intermediation by the private sector. Specifically, by lowering shortterm interest rates while long-term interest rates have not fallen as much, monetary authorities are creating an incentive for banks to switch their lending activity from the private sector towards the public sector or towards loans guaranteed by governments. Second, by buying or accepting as collateral private sector assets on a large scale, monetary authorities are crowding out private sector financial intermediaries. Third, if liquidity trap conditions persist over years, I argue that central banks would be able to set a negative interest rate target in 4 order to lower nominal interest rates faced by businesses without lowering the incentive for private sector financial intermediation. Everyone is ZIRPing... The recent policies of leading western world central banks and governments should be understood in the context of the perception of a liquidity trap and lack of trust in the banking system. Following bank runs in several countries and a marked increased in the demand for currency by the non-bank public, governments in the Eurozone and in the US have substantially raised the deposit insurance levels, and in several instances have nationalized banks or provided capital injections. Central banks have lowered reference short-term riskfree interest rates, and expanded the monetary base and balance sheets, to enact an easing of monetary policy. This I find interesting, it sort of describes the removal of profit making business from the banks. Does this equal the removal of one tier of banking? More or less, I think so. At the very least you could call it an effective leash. That is, if banks do not allocate financial resources entrusted by depositors to private sector agents, the only two revenue generating alternatives for banks are deposits with the central bank or government bonds. The rates offered to banks for overnight deposits fell and were, in March 2009, 0% in the US and 0.5% in the Eurozone. Therefore, the only remaining revenue generating alternative for banks is to acquire longer-dated sovereign government bonds, hold them to maturity, and earn a risk-free pure term premium. For example, the nominal rates on 5-year US Treasury and comparable German government bonds were on March 4th, 2009 approximately 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively. If short-term risk free nominal rates remain at near zero, long term premia are equal to long-term nominal rates, and are an attractive and riskless investment proposition for banks, so long as short-term interest rates do not rise. Quantitative versus qualitative.... In summary, to reduce the incentives bank face to switch from private to public sector assets, quantitative easing should be directed towards longer term government maturities, with the aim of lowering the risk-free interest rate differential between short- and long-term rates, and reduce (though not eliminate) the pure term premium. However, qualitative easing has a detrimental effect on private sector incentives. The liquidity trap is not solely caused for speculative motives, as in agents believe prices will fall, but also because of extreme levels of risk aversion. In a liquidity trap, fear trumps greed, or expressed in another way, the risk premium5 is not large enough to compensate for the heightened levels of risk aversion. Financial intermediaries demand a high pure risk premium to carry out their function of allocating savings to investment.
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Gold exchange?
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Interesting article, certainly long term inside strategies and financial assistance is nothing new. CSIS is becoming a household word lately. It is likely a distraction/diversion of some sort. Perhaps the foretelling of coming discredit aimed at CSIS creating a need for a deeper non-transparent government spyweb. That's usually what happens in the US. They hint at a unsafe situation not always legit, and thus pave the way for the development for more control groups. Time will tell.
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Prosperity funds link, Obama's commitment to the UNFCCC tax generated fund for wealth redistribution. Not really related to what we are talking about but I mentioned it in my last post and thought I should include a link. http://us-elections.suite101.com/article.cfm/obama_shared_prosperity_plan OK maybe more than 3 or 4 links, teehee.
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Hi, these first 2 links show the commitment from Harper and Obama to reduce/remove deficit quite drastically. I do believe 0 government debt is imperative to ZIRP working. On a side note, I find the interest of these 2 in this could have implications on how the prosperity funds generated through the production tax in the FCCC goal regarding its implementation of pay-out without interest versus with interest. http://news.sympatico.cbc.ca/home/contentposting/harper_obama_urge_g20_to_boost_economic_recovery/78870f3e http://www.canadianbusiness.com/markets/headline_news/article.jsp?content=b3692595&utm_source=_BMG9w4B8Lunj4S&utm_content=mwnl41&utm_medium=email This is just more perspective from a Canadian point of view... http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2008/12/international-coordination-with-zirp.html These articles lay out some major controversies... http://cij.inspiriting.com/?tag=zirp# http://cij.inspiriting.com/?tag=zirp# This last one is just Japanese monetary policy... http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap31k.pdf
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Hi, from what I gather, it is the stimulus package that drove the interest rate up but Harper fully intends on stopping this on schedule. All the links are on my other computer darn it. I will post them tonight though. Just 3 or 4 but they are very telling in some ways. Harper and Obama are fighting its legitimacy, they are definitely putting on the pressure. The World Bank is fighting back... http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/4101 More tonight, I am so glad you are interested in this. The more heads the better to figure things out.
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Basically we have now covered where paper notes came from and what they evolved to be. Our current fractional reserve system with interest coupled with debt being the largest so-called asset. What a mess. Now, I would like to understand what ZIRP is all about and how it plays into our future regarding this mess. I have read a few differing articles about this. Looking at Japan there are lots of articles depicting the folly and hardships of it, all of which were summed up in one other article that shows how it was the fact that the government didn't reduce spending effectively or stabilize taxes. I can see the trouble in the US with this as well as trouble in Australia. We are doing it here too but it is quiet as usual in the media. What would be the long term benefits of ZIRP? Would it really remove an entire tier of banking created by interest debt? When I consider figures like 170 million daily interest on government debt and payments made from tax revenues I have to wonder what it would be like without having this hanging over our heads. Could ZIRP give us this? One major argument I read about is how drastic the government spending cuts have to be initially along with higher if not stable taxes till the deficit is gone, a long hard road. I will pull some links and post them later.
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Emerging powers see canada as a leader.
Yesterday replied to PIK's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
With China so willing to pet Canada's ego and Russia poised to financially invest in us substantially...one might begin to think they are trying to buy/secure Canada's vote/position on what should replace the current reserve...ie: SDR or other. Or, is Harper using our resource cache and fiscal stability to entice them and secure them? -
I can see how important this buy up for liquidity was for dealings with Russia (I think), I do also however think there was at least a small problem with over extension with the 5% mortgage and our housing markets seems to still be sketchy in projections for the next year or so and in the US, RBC got themselves into CDO trouble but I am not aware of whether or not that situation spilled back over the border into Canada. Our situation was kept very quiet compared to our larger siblings in view of the fact that Harper and friends wanted to secure/enhance our international reputation. All being said, 108 billion is piddly compared to what has happened elsewhere. Good for us? I hope so.
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Canadian Dollar Gaining Reserve Status
Yesterday replied to Smallc's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
Yup, I hope the basket doesn't tip..... -
Hi, great article, now I sit on the fence again...I had heard the 100 some odd billion figure before. Here it is again, mmm. I'd like to see a bank run...yup sometimes I feel like I want to be an activist, even a mild one. In my mind, a run would be the simplest most efficient way to make our point about the banks and force some sort of real change.
