SpankyMcFarland

If what you say is true why isn’t Poilievre winning easily? Or maybe you believe he is? We are not talking about the same thing here. I’m talking about likeability in particular and you are talking about perceived integrity. They are not the same. Every candidate needs to work on their weaknesses to maximize their appeal. Obviously Carney has many such vulnerabilities but Poilievre has had years to improve his appeal to female voters. I’m assuming you are male and older. Do you really think you are in the best position to judge how Poilievre comes across to female voters? Polls have had some problems in recent years but to claim there’s a deliberate bias in them is paranoid. Poilievre does not claim that himself. How am I to judge these matters without polls? I can also rely on what I see. What you like about Poilievre - for example, his ability to to come out with sharp rejoinders - may not appeal to everybody. Are you even open to seeing these things in your candidate?

Although Trump and Carney arrived like meteors into our political world, Poilievre should still have been better prepared in both style and content. His likeability was an obvious weakness from the day he became leader but was only a potential problem as Trudeau sank in the polls. With the benefit of hindsight, he should have been working constantly to improve that. Committed Tories are a little more than a third of the electorate. In the absence of a big NDP/BQ vote they have to make inroads into the right flank of Liberal support and there hasn’t been enough of that. The clear statement on abortion was one example of what is needed. If Poilievre wins he will have done so despite making it harder for himself. How many seats do you think they are going to win in Ontario? It needs to be a big number.

Imagine sending a real estate guy to negotiate a Ukraine deal with Putin. Witkoff is a brilliant businessman, whose paternal grandparents were born in the Russian Empire, but he fell at the first fence when talking to Tucker Carlson, being unable to name the four eastern Ukrainian regions under dispute. Needless to say, this did not go down well in Ukraine: https://kyivindependent.com/editorial-what-steve-witkoff-doesnt-get-about-ukraine-and-russia/

I would just add the tiny caveat that a foreigner can be a cultural Russophile, admiring Russia’s extraordinary achievements in music and literature, or a lover of the country’s vast steppes and forests. Any northern Canadian is a comrade of the boreal forest.

Give me lucky generals, as Napoleon is supposed to have said.

Elections usually provide at least one opportunity like this…I see David Beckham has been tucking into the poutine since he moved to the island. No mention of Posh. https://www.saanichnews.com/local-news/saanich-gulf-islands-liberal-candidate-has-deep-connection-to-the-land-7901150

This ain’t good. Not good at all: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-liberal-candidate-accepted-invitation-from-china-to-celebrate-peoples/

What do BC posters think of Steve Fuhr’s chances? He has never smoked a joint, apparently. I thought it was compulsory there? https://www.pentictonherald.ca/news/article_d0837822-d909-44c9-974b-04e473c30be1.html He’s none too keen on the F-35 by the looks of things.

Poilievre is going to have to considerably exceed current expectations in Southern Ontario to have any chance of a majority win.

One of the best photo-ops for a campaign comes when you reluctantly pause it to do serious prime ministerial things and defend the nation from a foreign foe: https://globalnews.ca/news/11125232/donald-trump-tariffs-canada-election-campaign/

Americans should be very careful what they wish for. At the moment, foreigners are selling them stuff they want and putting many of those earned dollars into IOUs from the US Treasury. If that commodius vicus of recirculation were to stop suddenly, God help us all.

Carney is the PM, though. He matters right now. People are often going to demonstrate when he turns up.

They didn’t look desperate - they are paid to have opinions that will spike debate, after all - and the polls don’t either.

There’s no question that rallies attract more committed voters. Most Canadians aren’t going to wait five minutes to hear some politician talk.

Interesting perspective on the CBC panel today - Poilievre’s big, boisterous rally crowds are turning off the centrist voters he needs.

Who cares about that out there in deepest Canada? It’s not a core issue for most Canadians. Carney’s going to make mistakes. He’s new to this game. As the MAGA crowd used to claim in 2016, one can say ‘he’s not a politician’ as he runs to run the country.

I would have thought pollsters would want to be as accurate as possible in their results no matter what their own biases. Their businesses depend on presenting a realistic picture of what’s going on. We all know they have struggled in recent elections around the world to get it right and I’m sure they are cognizant of that.

Given that much of the Liberal support is recent, couldn’t polls predicting a big win keep some of them at home?

So what do you say about the gender breakdown in the polls?

Both parties have a gender imbalance but the Liberals can afford to be light on men at the minute if the polls are right.

What steps has PP taken to improve his support among female voters? I see his wife is conspicuous in the campaign which is a start. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ana-poilievre-campaign-election-pierre-1.7501082

The secondary gain Trump gets from this is obvious - representatives from the world coming to him personally and begging for a deal. That rewards his vanity and his coffers. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/09/trump-address-republicans-china-tariffs

He’s not correct about comparative advantage in trade between nations. That issue was resolved in 1817. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage I have no particular desire to protect the telecom or airline industries here, or supply management. However, bear in mind that: we already run a trade deficit on dairy and agricultural products; the US subsidizes its own farmers and employs thousands of illegal workers to collect that milk. Trump is a hypocrite on agriculture as he was in at least one of his own golf clubs.

I doubt the effect of polls on voting behaviour this time will be that big for the Tories or Liberals. This election really is about something. Supporters of the NDP might claim that some of their voters might not turn up if they are polled lower than they really are but they are acting as if they agree with the polls anyway. If the Liberals stay ahead in the polls generally we’ll soon be hearing them urge voters to still turn up.

In Canada, the debates could matter this time more than they have in the recent past. Poilievre is an excellent and experienced debater. He will have a big advantage there and will be assisted by Singh and Blanchet in going after Carney. The trap will be to try to all have a go at him at once and create chaos.