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Everything posted by SpankyMcFarland
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The Donroe Doctrine simplified
SpankyMcFarland replied to paxamericana's topic in Canada / United States Relations
Steal till you draw your last breath. -
Russia? Russia is unable to win a war against a country that barely had an army a few years ago. If Trump gave a damn about the Russian military threat to the world the US would still be fully supporting Ukraine. Did America need to own Britain to fight alongside it in both world wars? Trump’s premise is ridiculous. He wants to own Greenland because it makes him feel better.
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The UK has one physician licensing body, the GMC, for 65 million people and four ‘provinces’ (three of whom call themselves countries) while providing at least as good a service as our system of 13 such bodies. One fear in going to one college would be a big rush by doctors to Ontario and BC. I hope reform along Poilievre’s proposed lines isn’t forgotten in the current megacrisis. He made some good points.
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You really think Trump is going to help you?
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I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that we need an expanded private care system in Canada. Our ERs are being choked by people who should be seen by GPs. Only the acutely ill should have to show up there for care. While on holiday in Europe last year, I walked into a private clinic and got a full allergy screen which diagnosed a dust mite problem I’d had for decades. Lord knows how long it would have taken to arrange an appointment here. In my province all our dermatologists are in the capital, necessitating what is in winter a dangerous drive of many hours for fifteen minutes with a doctor about a rash. In the UK GPs take a one year diploma in dermatology to do much of this work. On IMG (foreign grad) licensure, we need to fast-track this. I’ve seen utterly ridiculous decisions made about how much training foreign grads require, eg, a cardiologist lecturing in the UK was told he needed 3 1/2 years more training to become a basic internist. UK trained surgeons and anesthesiologists will often have 10-15 years of training already when they come to Canada compared to the 4-5 required here and yet they struggle to become eligible to sit the exams. The assessment system simply isn’t fit for purpose. Poilievre had some proposals to improve this. It’s at least one area I largely agree with him on. On this matter, there’s a massive unexplained surplus of organs for transplant in China. We don’t have to rely on what Falun Gong say.
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The failure of the hijab ban means that Iran is secularizing anyway. The real question is where the destination is - authoritarian or democratic? One could imagine a senior army officer seizing power but leaving the existing structures in place with a friendly cleric in the role currently occupied by Khamanei.
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I’d like to see a gradual retreat of religious leaders from the political sphere. Ayatollah Sistani next door in Iraq, although born in Iran, tends to leave politics to the politicians in the absence of a national crisis like the attack by Islamic State. He has generally been a force for positive change. If the Iranian mullahs could see the light and surrender power they could avert a civil war and perhaps the break-up of the country.
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No heir apparent but two of those three are closely related to previous leaders. The least worst might be Hassan Khomeini of all people. Of course, the regime likes to see internal opposition as organized by the US but they must know that’s not the case. They’re doing a fantastically awful job all on their own. I tend to think that a more secular dictatorship with input from the military would be more acceptable to Iranians and other countries too, especially Sunni neighbours, and would thus have a better chance of survival. However there’s always the danger in reform of doing a Gorbachev and bringing the whole edifice down.
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It is guesswork even for those who know something about Iran which certainly does not include me. If the great man does go off to meet his maker, I suspect the regime will want to manage the crisis by letting the IRGC take a stronger role and cutting back on the morality side of things that just provoke people needlessly. That would require a more conciliatory chief bottlewasher willing to chart a slightly more secular course. OTOH they could choose a more energetic version of the incumbent.
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Thirty years ago, in my previous area of interest, one would see the occasional Chinese name, usually outside China. Now the research journals are filled with Mainland Chinese authors. There is a profound change afoot. Anybody can see that. One can recognize reality and try to deal with it or be washed away.
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Essentially, Iran has one buyer of its oil - China. If Trump wanted to strangle the mullah’s foreign money supply he could go after that but I don’t see him talking so tough to Xi these days. Like Putin’s buddies, the Iranian elite has money all over the place, especially in Europe. That should be pursued much more aggressively. China also assists in controlling the Internet; Western tech companies could do a better job resisting that. I’d like to see a bigger budget for BBC Persian. In addition, a campaign of satire is absolutely intolerable to theocracies. Once the laughter becomes general they begin to lose their power.
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Think of all those victims of Scotch whisky. Time to swoop on this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Swinney#:~:text=John Ramsay Swinney (born 13,and between 2000 and 2004.
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Is Iran next to fall?
SpankyMcFarland replied to paxamericana's topic in Federal Politics in the United States
The Iranian government has had literally thousands of years of experience in autocracy. Zombie regimes like this can persist with modest popular support eg North Korea, Belarus. Look at Syria which was run by a corrupt family from a tiny religious minority and ended up as a narco-state. By contrast the mullahs have millions of Farsi-speaking Shia at the undereducated end of the spectrum who still stay loyal. Khomeini studied the Shah for decades and learned the lessons there, both how to topple a king and how to stay in power. Unless Iran breaks up, I fear change will have to come from within as it did in the Soviet Union.
