Can Dion beat Harper?

[August1991]

It is popular to say that Dion is a wimp. Even Dion has admitted that the Tory TV advertising campaign was successful. Yet people forget that Harper himself was once portrayed as a hopeless wimp. As Dinah Washington sang, What a difference a day makes.

So, between these two "wimps", who will win? I think Harper may lose, or rather Dion will win.

First, Harper has his priorities wrong. In an election, Dion can say with honesty that he wants to protect the environment. Harper will have to explain Ambrose, and then his wife's choice of Baird. Dion/Harper are facing retired-boomers who vote. Voters, facing death, who think about what they will leave their grandchildren.

Second, Harper ran on his priority of crime control. What has he done? The RCMP is a mess and Harper wants to dismantle the gun registry. (Please don't confuse me with details. I have only one vote, with one X.) Harper has not delivered.

Third, Harper is spending money like a drunken sailor (on big planes, for examples) and he hasn't cut taxes. Harper has lost his base with income trusts - something Bush Jnr never did.

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Most of all, Harper hasn't offered anything to English Canada. English Canada is not Australia, and Australia will never excite them. To English Canada, Hollywood (America) is sexy, not Australia.

Harper has done well in Quebec but in cross-cultural terms, he's no Trudeau in Ontario - or Mazda in Quebec. Yet I'm still amazed. Harper is a character on the Quebec stage, like Ewen Macgregor has a place on the US stage. Trudeau would be proud or more likely, Trudeau would be churlish. Anyway, Harper is proof that Canada can work.

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All things considered, Harper is a bean-counter. Dion is right to speak about economic growth, social fairness and environmental protection for our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren. IOW, Dion sees the big picture. Harper is the son of an Imperial Oil accountant, a bean counter who obsesses about tax deductions for transit passes.

In a federal, Canada-wide general election against Dion, Harper will lose. Sorry to say this, but who cares about Australia.

Edited September 14, 2007 by August1991

[Newfie Canadian]

I don't know, August. One has to wonder what success any party could have in a minority situation, especially for the CPC where the other parties are more left leaning than right.

Having said that, I agree that Harper has missed the bus on the environment. My question is, can the environment alone win it for Dion, and even if it does, can Dion deliver in what is sure to be a minority? Maybe so, with the makeup of the parties.

The RCMP was the RCMP long before Harper became PM. The fact that it all blew up on his watch is unfortunate for him. Yet I cannot agree with his appointment of an outsider to head the force. My theory is if it broke while a Mountie was running it, what chance do someone who has no idea of what policing entails have in fixing it? The gun registry? *shivers at the mention of it*

The next interesting piece of the puzzle will be the Throne Speech when Parliament resumes.

So, can Dion beat Harper nation wide? He was in St. John's a few weeks ago and I had the opportunity to hear him in person. I have to confess, there were some things that he said that I couldn't quite get, and not because of my education or my culture, but because the man can just speak English. (And I hate to point this out because I don't think it should be a valid argument, but a lot of people believe that it is). If John Crosbie and Brian Tobin failed in their respective bids to become PM at least in part because of their inability to speak French, how is Dion's broken and unsure English going to fly?

I still haven't decided who I'm voting for. Time will tell.

[M.Dancer]

Dion will lead the Liberals to the worst defeat in years.

He has no resonance in Ontario, and certainly none in the rst of Canada either.....

.........But he will prove for Quebec to be the best leader the BQ has ever had.

Watch for it, the BQ will once again be Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

[jdobbin]

Dion will lead the Liberals to the worst defeat in years.

He has no resonance in Ontario, and certainly none in the rst of Canada either.....

.........But he will prove for Quebec to be the best leader the BQ has ever had.

Watch for it, the BQ will once again be Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

If Dion doesn't win Outremont on Monday, he may be asked to step aside the next day.

[jdobbin]

All things considered, Harper is a bean-counter. Dion is right to speak about economic growth, social fairness and environmental protection for our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren. IOW, Dion sees the big picture. Harper is the son of an Imperial Oil accountant, a bean counter who obsesses about tax deductions for transit passes.

In a federal, Canada-wide general election against Dion, Harper will lose. Sorry to say this, but who cares about Australia.

I think Outremont will tell the tale. Andrew Coyne said that Dion losing Outremont might not be a big a deal as the media has been making out. However, it would be seen as a major defeat. If Dion was to lose what is regarded as a safe seat, he could be asked to step down as early as next week.

[old_bold&cold]

Dion will lead the Liberals to the worst defeat in years.

He has no resonance in Ontario, and certainly none in the rst of Canada either.....

.........But he will prove for Quebec to be the best leader the BQ has ever had.

Watch for it, the BQ will once again be Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

I agree with the above, and while I also think that Dion in Quebec is a losing leader, I do hope to see the PC's make bigger in roads there as well. But yes I am afraid that with the way things are that the BQ may well be the official opposition, again. The liberals have this idea that because they did not melt down completely with the voters last time, that they will be able to rebuild with Dion as a leader. What they forget to mention is the only reason dion is the leader is because no liberal with any sort of high profile was crazy enough to face the voters after adscam. So along comes Dion, about as vanilla a person you can find and all the charisma of a wet sponge. I really do not think that there will be any call for an election this fall, but if there is the liberals will be the most to lose. You can start to see it now with the polls in the Ontario election, where the Liberals did have the lead and now are dropping steadily, and if this stays the course then come election day you will see people finally waking up to the fatc that all liberals are liars and cheats. This will also carry quite easily to any federal election that may come. If I am right, you will see the PC get back in Ontario, and the federal liberals quickly puling in their horns and supporting anything the federal PC's may want to make a confidence vote. Just my own view of course, but we will see how right I am very soon.

[jdobbin]

You can start to see it now with the polls in the Ontario election, where the Liberals did have the lead and now are dropping steadily, and if this stays the course then come election day you will see people finally waking up to the fatc that all liberals are liars and cheats. This will also carry quite easily to any federal election that may come. If I am right, you will see the PC get back in Ontario, and the federal liberals quickly puling in their horns and supporting anything the federal PC's may want to make a confidence vote. Just my own view of course, but we will see how right I am very soon.

While I might agree with part of your thoughts about Dion being a poor performing leader in Quebec for the most part, I think you are probably wishing upon a star about the results in Ontario. The last poll I saw for the election there was showing a strong provincial Liberal performance.

[M.Dancer]

While I might agree with part of your thoughts about Dion being a poor performing leader in Quebec for the most part, I think you are probably wishing upon a star about the results in Ontario. The last poll I saw for the election there was showing a strong provincial Liberal performance.

Strong? Is that strong as in more numbers than the CCs or strong as in their is little chance the numbers might swing....

I would NOT give a dime for any poll about the liberals untill Ontario hears Dion's pitch (with or without subtitles)

Editted to ad the NOT

Edited September 14, 2007 by M.Dancer

[jdobbin]

Strong? Is that strong as in more numbers than the CCs or strong as in their is little chance the numbers might swing....

I would give a dime for any poll about the liberals untill Ontario hears Dion's pitch (with or without subtitles)

Sorry, I should have looked and didn't see the Angus Reid online poll. It still has the Liberals in a slight lead.

I have stated several times that I don't think much of the online polling system.

The poll I had been referring to was the Decima poll taken a few days earlier. They used the old fashioned but seemingly more relaibale phone system of polling.

http://www.cfra.com/headlines/index.asp?cat=1&nid=51966

Premier Dalton McGuinty and the Liberals have an eight point lead in the first leg of the Ontario election campaign.

The Canadian Press-Harris-Decima poll shows the Liberals have the support of 41 per cent of respondents.

The Conservatives sit at 33 per cent support, the NDP 13 per cent and 11 per cent for the Greens.

I am confused about how the provincial Liberals would be affected by Dion. How so?

Edited September 14, 2007 by jdobbin

[noahbody]

Having said that, I agree that Harper has missed the bus on the environment. My question is, can the environment alone win it for Dion, and even if it does, can Dion deliver in what is sure to be a minority? Maybe so, with the makeup of the parties.

It was Dion and the Liberals who missed the bus on the environment. For the future of the Liberals it's likely best if Harper wins and Dion gets the boot. If Dion gets in and starts throwing billions in the carbon credit market, etc, the Libs will be done for many a year.

[old_bold&cold]

I just read in todays Ottawa Citizen that those who voted liberal in the last election have 27% that say they will not vote Liberal this election, with a small percent saying they are unsure. The Tory's have 80% saying they will vote tory again with mose of the rest saying they are not sure. The NDP and Greens are not really counted. But while it is a almost even numbers swap at first glance, it does show that those definity will not vot liberal at 27%, with a small unsure percent. The tories have 80 percent sure and I think it was 15% unsure. This is done with people how voted last time and their intentions this time. It does look like the Liberals, will be losing a lot of voters and the unsures will proably split evenly between them. So if you take the numbers and crunch them it does look like the tory's will out gain the Liberals. Even the 905 and inner city Toronto are not so sure liberals in this.

Now I will say that this poll in the newpaper was just that a poll. But if it does follow this trend and as we have seen this week the Liberals are not gaining but losing numbers..... well you can see the trend. McGinty needs to stop pressing the shcool support issues and get to other things, as the electorate is not really that caring about Faith Based Schools, and it looks like they are tired of it. McGinty needs to do something else, because the others are remaking him into the big liar he was when first elected, and if they get to do so for much longer he will never recover and anything he says will just be thought of as a lie. He really has misjudged the amount of caring there is about faith based schooling. The rest have being quite able to attack him on all his broken promises and deficits etc.. He has let the other partys define the issues of this election. That will cost him big time.

[M.Dancer]

Sorry, I should have looked and didn't see the Angus Reid online poll. It still has the Liberals in a slight lead.

I have stated several times that I don't think much of the online polling system.

The poll I had been referring to was the Decima poll taken a few days earlier. They used the old fashioned but seemingly more relaibale phone system of polling.

http://www.cfra.com/headlines/index.asp?cat=1&nid=51966

I am confused about how the provincial Liberals would be affected by Dion. How so?

What does a provincial poll have to do with a federal election?

Sorry, just started reading backwards and see your comment was about the provincial election.....so sorry, won't happen again.....

Edited September 14, 2007 by M.Dancer

[jdobbin]

What does a provincial poll have to do with a federal election?

I was responding to another poster who said that the Ontario Liberals would be defeated in a provincial election. At least that was what my impression of what he was trying to indicate.

edit: responded before I saw your above post edit.

Edited September 14, 2007 by jdobbin

[M.Dancer]

I know one thing, since I haven't decided yet who I will vote for in Ontario.....I won't make any calls........

I know another thing too......in the next federal election I will vote for a Harper Conservative minority.....can some figure out how I am about to do that?.....I really wish I lived out west and could vote after the Ontario polls close.....

[jdobbin]

Now I will say that this poll in the newpaper was just that a poll. But if it does follow this trend and as we have seen this week the Liberals are not gaining but losing numbers..... well you can see the trend. McGinty needs to stop pressing the shcool support issues and get to other things, as the electorate is not really that caring about Faith Based Schools, and it looks like they are tired of it. McGinty needs to do something else, because the others are remaking him into the big liar he was when first elected, and if they get to do so for much longer he will never recover and anything he says will just be thought of as a lie. He really has misjudged the amount of caring there is about faith based schooling. The rest have being quite able to attack him on all his broken promises and deficits etc.. He has let the other partys define the issues of this election. That will cost him big time.

The same poll that showed the Liberals only two points ahead also showed that a large chunk of Ontario don't like the faith based school proposal on the PCs.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28232...ints_in_ontario

49 per cent oppose Tory’s faith-based schools proposal.

Once again, my opinion on Angus Reid polls are that they are unreliable. Decima and Ipsos also released polls this week that showed a different picture altogether.

I doubt that the provincial Liberals are going to let the matter drop on faith-based schools.

[Topaz]

Did anyone see the poll that asked voters . IF you had to switch parties, who would you vote for. The Green Party had 61% of the vote then the Libs, then the NDP, then the Bloc and in last place the Cons!! I was totally surprised that the Cons came in last! The polls on this forum only show that there are more Cons supporters than Libs or NDP. I, do think the Libs, will take Ontario, most people are happy with their lives and there is always room for improvement.

[weaponeer]

The environment is not a Canadian issue alone, it is a world issue. How can we do anything about it if China and India do not play ball. We are going in circles, getting mad at each other over an issue we have no control over. This is planet earth, only the US, Russia, China, the UK, France, India and perhaps Japan have any real say on what happens, lets stop fooling and blaming ourselves.

What can Harper do about crime in a minority gov't. We have ALL failed in this country on the crime issue. That Whitmore idiot who kidnapped those kids out west, why was he out of jail to begin with, why did he only get a 7 years sentence. Why, because we have all failed, he rapes kids, he should have been in jail, life no parole, it is simple. We are far too soft on those kinds of criminals in Canada.

I think Harper will win, and get his majority. He is not the baby eating monster he was portrayed to be by the Libs. My closest friend is a big time, hard core Lib, and he has told me he likes Harper, and will vote Tory next election, that says something to me more than any poll. I voted Tory in the last election, and will do so again.

Had the Libs put Iggy in, perhaps a different story....

[jdobbin]

I think Harper will win, and get his majority. He is not the baby eating monster he was portrayed to be by the Libs. My closest friend is a big time, hard core Lib, and he has told me he likes Harper, and will vote Tory next election, that says something to me more than any poll. I voted Tory in the last election, and will do so again.

Had the Libs put Iggy in, perhaps a different story....

Despite the poll of what is going on in Outremont, I still have not seen a poll that puts the Tories anywhere near a majority.

I don't know that Ignatieff would have made a difference at this point.

Edited September 14, 2007 by jdobbin

[mikedavid00]

So, between these two "wimps", who will win? I think Harper may lose, or rather Dion will win.

Dion was never supposed to win.

Bob Rea was supposed to win.

Dion only won becuase Sikh delegates were instructed to back Dion becuase Rae brought up the air india bombing. That's the only reason.

Belinda tried to do the right thing. If she was succesful, we would saying Ignatieff or Rae instad of Dion.

Dion was supposed to finish last place. He's a moot point. He's not a leader.

Harper is a leader.

The voters know this.

(now Harper, please be a leader and STOP mass immigration into Canada)

[capricorn]

I doubt that the provincial Liberals are going to let the matter drop on faith-based schools.

It's the only issue they have to detract from their own poor governance record.

[jdobbin]

It's the only issue they have to detract from their own poor governance record.

It appears to be a good issue though.

[Shakeyhands]

It's the only issue they have to detract from their own poor governance record.

Poor governance? Seems things are one hell of a lot better around here since we got rid of the gruesome twosome last election. Harris/Eves did more to harm the province than is believable. Mcguinty, despite having to go back on his no new taxes pledge, has done a significant job in getting this province back on track.

[capricorn]

Poor governance? Seems things are one hell of a lot better around here since we got rid of the gruesome twosome last election. Harris/Eves did more to harm the province than is believable. Mcguinty, despite having to go back on his no new taxes pledge, has done a significant job in getting this province back on track.

The school issue is a diversion from McGuinty's record. It is being milked for all it's worth.

Speaking of living in the past. How about a 1 million dollar grant to a cricket club. How about a health care tax which brought in over 2 billion dollars that went into general revenue and not into the health care budget. How about a lottery system that saw insiders collect millions in winnings. The economic boon of Ontario is nothing more than the overall improvement of Canada's enhanced financial standing.

Harkening back to the days Harris and Eaves does nothing to help measure where we could have been if McGuinty and his cohorts not mismanaged provincial finances.

Four more years, four more years, four more years.......... :angry:

[guyser]

The school issue is a diversion from McGuinty's record. It is being milked for all it's worth.

I suppose shakeyhands has forgotten that McQuinty's track record on promises is near perfect isnt it?

What is it now, out of (IIRC) 130 promises he has kept one, or was that 0.5 , something like that.

McQuinty has not shown he is trustworthy. Look at his lying Public school ads. Please Dalty old chap, be honest, your lil spawn goes to cath school and wifey was a teacher in one.

At the very least, Harris said what he would do , and did it. Tough noogies for those that cant see that.

"ohh....but Harris killed people" wah wah wah

[capricorn]

Look at his lying Public school ads. Please Dalty old chap, be honest, your lil spawn goes to cath school and wifey was a teacher in one.

Dalton says in the TV ad: "The public education system is what makes Ontario, Ontario." Yeah, right Dalton. So you and your family are not "Ontario" because you and your entourage attended schools in the Catholic Board. So what are you doing leading our province? What a hypocrite! Keep the lies coming.