Can Dion beat Harper?

[jdobbin]

I guess there must be some truth to what you're saying because the polls still give Liberals decent support. It's interesting though - the points you raised:

1) The environment....it's been said over and over - Liberals did nothing - at least Conservatives are being active on the international stage - trying to get the big polluters to the table. And they DO have a plan - whether it's good enough is neither here nor there - it's much, much more than what the Liberals did in all the years they were in power. So again, a knowledgeable person shouldn't be supporting the Liberals on that file. At worst, it's a wash.

2) On Daycare you have a point but again, people shouldn't be "afraid" of the Conservatives on this file. They are not doing anything major on Institutional Daycare so it's really the status quo. Daycare is really Early Learning - that's Education - and that's a Provincial responsibility. But the fact is, there's nothing scary there - just nothing happening.

3) Afghanistan - what can one say. We're one of over 20 NATO countries trying to do what's right for that country......so if people are scared that the Conservatives are war mongerers, their minds are not going to be changed. But mark my words - if the Liberals got back into power, they would find a way to keep many of our troops in harm's way - they'd just spin it differently.

So back to my original point - I really can't see why people would vote Liberal at this point in time. I guess it boils down to having voted Liberal for so many years, it's just hard to change.

The Liberals have only been able to hold support in Opposition to the Tories. They haven't been able to convince voters their plan is superior to the Conservative one.

The problem for the Tories on the environment is that the party is not seen as truly committed to the environment. Their platform for the last election on the environment amounted to a few lines. They will have to assert themselves over and over again on this file before they erase doubts.

On daycare, their own minister says their plans hasn't created daycare spaces. That isn't good enough for many parents.

On Afghanistan, it doesn't matter what party is in power. People in Canada are dubious about the commitment of our allies and on the Afghans themselves to do the job. The Tories now own that file since they are ones who have extended the mission and have shown they want to extend again if they get a consensus. That is basically their election platform: a majority means two more years there. Not something some voters are willing to do even if they like other policies the Tories have.

[Michael Bluth]

So back to my original point - I really can't see why people would vote Liberal at this point in time. I guess it boils down to having voted Liberal for so many years, it's just hard to change.

Some people will out of pure laziness. They aren't happy with the Liberals but can't be arsed to do the research to see which of the alternatives suits them better.

The Liberals need to do two things to have a realistic chance at winning the next election.

They need to create a coherent platform that provides a realistic alternative to the Conservatives.

They need a leader who can unite a fragmented party and caucus.

They won three elections ('97, '00 and '04) with *scary* *scary* *scary*.

It didn't work in '06 and it won't work again. The Liberals haven't shown they have come up with anything else.

That's why this poll is running 2 to 1 against Dion forming government.

[Shakeyhands]

the poll here is skewed Bluth. The vast majority of posters here are of the conservative ilk. But you knew that.

[Michael Bluth]

the poll here is skewed Bluth. The vast majority of posters here are of the conservative ilk. But you knew that.

Really?

Can't be that a lot of people who probably won't vote for Harper realize that he has a much better chance than Dion of winning the next election?

What next, blame the media for being unfair to poor Stephane?

"Vast majority" of posters here conservative? I don't think so. But keep deluding yourself about how well Stephane really is doing.

[jdobbin]

The vast majority of posters here are of the conservative ilk.

We can always ask how people would vote and they can put their name to it in these forums and find out.

[Shakeyhands]

Really?

Can't be that a lot of people who probably won't vote for Harper realize that he has a much better chance than Dion of winning the next election?

What next, blame the media for being unfair to poor Stephane?

"Vast majority" of posters here conservative? I don't think so. But keep deluding yourself about how well Stephane really is doing.

Trust me.. the vast majority of posters here, have and always have been Conservative minded.

And I have very publicly stated on this board that I do not want Dion as leader of the Liberal Party, perhaps if you are going to spout nonsense you should know what you are talking about... oh wait... sorry.

[Michael Bluth]

Trust me.. the vast majority of posters here, have and always have been Conservative minded.

And I have very publicly stated on this board that I do not want Dion as leader of the Liberal Party, perhaps if you are going to spout nonsense you should know what you are talking about... oh wait... sorry.

Why would anybody trust you and your thinly veiled hatred of the Conservative Party of Canada?

Whether or not you want Dion to be leader, are you going to start whining about the media's treatment of Dion?

Are you apolgizing for the line about "spouting nonsense"? If you are I thank you. Doubtful though, but thanks if you are.

[M.Dancer]

the poll here is skewed Bluth. The vast majority of posters here are of the conservative ilk. But you knew that.

I thought tye question was whether Dion could beat Harper, not whether "In your heart of hearts do you really wish (oh please god) that Dion will beat harper.

I haven't voted PC (or CCP) in over 20 years but that didn't stop me from saying that Dion doesn't have a snowballs chance against Harper.

And to be honest, I imagine that the majority of Liberals agree with me.

[jdobbin]

And to be honest, I imagine that the majority of Liberals agree with me.

Under present circumstances, I see the Tories winning. The latest poll still indicates that it will be a minority though.

[Michael Bluth]

I thought tye question was whether Dion could beat Harper, not whether "In your heart of hearts do you really wish (oh please god) that Dion will beat harper.

I haven't voted PC (or CCP) in over 20 years but that didn't stop me from saying that Dion doesn't have a snowballs chance against Harper.

And to be honest, I imagine that the majority of Liberals agree with me.

Yet a number of the leftists here are arguing that the results are symptomatic of a bias on this board...

[Shakeyhands]

LOL... you slay me Bluth... hahaha. Just so we are all clear here, you are without doubt the most biased poster on this board.

[August1991]

Under present circumstances, I see the Tories winning. The latest poll still indicates that it will be a minority though.

The great unknown in all this is that Stephane Dion is unknown in both English and French Canada. In Quebec, he's perceived incorrectly as a hardcore, doctrinaire, old-fashioned federalist. In English Canada, largely because of the Tory ad-campaign, he's perceived as a waffling wimp.

In fact, he's none of these things. The question is whether he can, in a brief campaign, show himself as he is.

In addition, Harper is no great campaigner and furthermore the Tories have some really clunky policies.

On balance, I think the Tories will win but it's not obvious at all.

[jdobbin]

The great unknown in all this is that Stephane Dion is unknown in both English and French Canada. In Quebec, he's perceived incorrectly as a hardcore, doctrinaire, old-fashioned federalist. In English Canada, largely because of the Tory ad-campaign, he's perceived as a waffling wimp.

In fact, he's none of these things. The question is whether he can, in a brief campaign, show himself as he is.

In addition, Harper is no great campaigner and furthermore the Tories have some really clunky policies.

On balance, I think the Tories will win but it's not obvious at all.

I have no inside knowledge of the federal Liberal party in Quebec or if they will actually work to win in the election. I know some of the MPs will fight to retain their seats but that isn't the same as a full court press by the provincial party. I'm wondering if some of them will sit on their hands just to get the leader they want.

I think we'll have to see if Ignatieff rallies would be allies by telling them that it will be a whole lot harder for any Liberal to re-build in Quebec if the organization lays in ruins.

Another factor not lost in the issue of Quebec is the BQ. If Duceppe campaigns well, he could retain his seats and deny gains to the Tories in rural Quebec.

Once again it could be a repeat of the last election.

As even Tom Flanagan said last week, the Tories either need 40% in the polls to get their majority or have an 11% margin over their nearest competitor. They have neither right now. And the latest Decima poll shows that they remain in a statistical tie with the Liberals.

[Michael Bluth]

The great unknown in all this is that Stephane Dion is unknown in both English and French Canada. In Quebec, he's perceived incorrectly as a hardcore, doctrinaire, old-fashioned federalist. In English Canada, largely because of the Tory ad-campaign, he's perceived as a waffling wimp.

If all it took was two small Conservative advertising buys to define Dion in English Canada imagine what they can do to him in the midst of a campaign...

[Shakeyhands]

If all it took was two small Conservative advertising buys to define Dion in English Canada imagine what they can do to him in the midst of a campaign...

What are the polls at right now again? While I am no fan of Dion, I think you might be surprised if an election is called... Once he talks policy, there is no telling how people will view him.

[jdobbin]

While I am no fan of Dion, I think you might be surprised if an election is called... Once he talks policy, there is no telling how people will view him.

The one policy a day announcements by all the parties are often highjacked by other events out of the control the parties.

Yesterday, Harper had his first news conference since becoming prime minister. You can tell an election is coming and the Tories know they have to play nice with the media because in a national campaign, every party needs them to get their message out.

There are a number of issues out there that will draw the attention of the public. We'll see if one or a number of them become defining issues. And we'll see if there is something unexpected.

[Michael Bluth]

What are the polls at right now again? While I am no fan of Dion, I think you might be surprised if an election is called... Once he talks policy, there is no telling how people will view him.

Keep deluding yourself about Dion.

Right now the narrative is set for the Titanice crash of HMCS Liberal.

Of course he *might* surprise, but from the looks of things most people here don't believe that will happen.