Are we witnessing the death of the Parti Québécois?

[August1991]

I'm putting this in the Federal section because the very real possibility that the ADQ will take the place of the PQ in Quebec politics will have repercussions in federal politics.

An article in today's Le Devoir, based on the opinions of various Quebec academics, makes the case:

Les promesses pleuvent, les autobus roulent et, désormais, la question se pose: poussée par un bon vent dans les sondages en ce début de campagne électorale, l'Action démocratique du Québec (ADQ) pourrait-elle dans un avenir prochain se hisser assez haut pour devenir la deuxième formation politique en importance au Québec? Devant le Parti québécois?

«Il y a six mois, ce scénario, c'était de la science-fiction», dit le sociologue Pierre Drouilly, de l'Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM). «À cette époque, on se demandait même si l'ADQ allait survivre. Mais là, il faut reconnaître que c'est de l'ordre du possible.»

La réorganisation de la constellation politique du Québec n'est pas encore totalement jouée, estime toutefois l'universitaire. Mais après plus d'une semaine de course, une chose est sûre: le courant ascendant dans lequel tourbillonne la formation politique de Mario Dumont est de plus en plus perceptible. «Ça commence à être dangereux [pour le PQ]», dit-il.

...

«Avec l'arrivée de Stephen Harper [à Ottawa], une chimie s'est créée, ajoute-t-il. La réapparition de Dumont dans l'actualité l'a de nouveau placé en situation de force. Mais il y a aussi le désabusement à l'endroit du Parti québécois, qui fait en sorte que le vote souverainiste est en train de se transférer vers une position mitoyenne.»

I sense something afoot. A variety of people who would normally vote PQ are choosing to vote for other parties. Green, QS or ADQ.

There's a combination of several factors: Boisclair is not popular. Using cocaine as a Cabinet minister and trying to excuse it as an "error of youth" hasn't worked. He doesn't have traction.

The PQ can only offer another referendum and nobody wants another referendum. Voting PQ is like beating one's head against a wall.

The PQ is pereceive as too left, too urban or too out-of-touch. This is unfair but people are blaming the PQ for imagined ills. [For myself, I have always felt that the PQ was making a mistake by allying itself with unions and the left in general. Boisclair is unfortunately the one to suffer from this tilt taken before.]

The ADQ offers a reasonable place to go. Dumont supported the Yes side in 1995 but the ADQ promises no referendum. Dumont argues in favour of "autonomy" without getting into specifics.

Harper's election and the 10 Tory seats in Quebec somehow change the dynamics. There's a sense somehow that confrontation would not be appropriate now.

----

I wouldn't count the PQ out just yet. And this doesn't mean the end of the traditional revendications of Quebec.

[blueblood]

How about the BQ according to latest polls, wouldn't the PQ and BQ's fate be intertwined?

[Canuck E Stan]

There's a combination of several factors: Boisclair is not popular. Using cocaine as a Cabinet minister and trying to excuse it as an "error of youth" hasn't worked. He doesn't have traction.

Boisclair's homophobia news conference seems likely a set-up to try to get sympathy support from voters. Dragging in homophobia into the Quebec election as a issue seems like a baleout from the issues that should be discussed.

If I was a Quebec voter I would be offended that Boisclair would make a hayday out of a "personal" issue. Boisclair is definitely losing traction...and very quickly.He has shifted the election issues to himself and not the issues relevant to Quebec.

Homophobia has no place in politics, Boisclair says

[Riverwind]

I wouldn't count the PQ out just yet. And this doesn't mean the end of the traditional revendications of Quebec.

I think my 'inverse hype rule' applies here. Once the dust settles the ADQ will have make respectable gains but the PQ will be in government or official opposition.

Aside: do they call the official opposition 'her majesty's loyal opposition' in Quebec? If not what do they say?

[August1991]

How about the BQ according to latest polls, wouldn't the PQ and BQ's fate be intertwined?

Uh, no.

The BQ is leading at 35% in Quebec in the latest federal poll. This is not good, but it's hardly a defeat either.

---

The latest poll (released tonight on TVA and to be in the papers tomorrow) puts the PLQ at 36%, the PQ at 29% and the ADQ at 26%.

The PQ has not been below 30% since 1973. The ADQ was high going into the 2003 election but then its vote collapsed. The same could happen again but I don't think so.

In PQ ranks, there was obviously alot of frustration after the 1995 referendum and the finger-pointing is now taking place. Why did this happen and how to ensure it doesn't happen again? Many fear that if Boisclair became PM, it would lead to a third failure. IOW, the pequistes are divided on how to go forward.

I think my 'inverse hype rule' applies here. Once the dust settles the ADQ will have make respectable gains but the PQ will be in government or official opposition.

A minority government is very likely with Charest as PM and Boisclair in official opposition.

As Mark Twain said, "The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated."

Aside: do they call the official opposition 'her majesty's loyal opposition' in Quebec? If not what do they say?

Chef de l'opposition officielle is all that I've ever heard.

Boisclair's homophobia news conference seems likely a set-up to try to get sympathy support from voters. Dragging in homophobia into the Quebec election as a issue seems like a baleout from the issues that should be discussed.

In fact, the offending interview with a gay PQ candidate (not Boisclair) occurred on Feb 19 before the election was called. Boisclair raised the issue himself today without being asked.

[Charles Anthony]

Boisclair raised the issue himself today without being asked.

When and where?

I may be misinterpreting that last statement but the innuendo behind "without being asked" may be interpreted that Boisclair is making it an election issue. He is not.

Boislcair is NOT prancing around blaming people for being homophobic. The issue is being explicitly and repeatedly raised by members of the press. The media are making it an election issue.

[August1991]

Boisclair raised the issue himself today without being asked.

When and where?

I'll respond over in the thread on the Quebec election.

[August1991]

This Quebec election may have historic proportions, the potential is there.

In 1970, the PQ got 23% and the Union Nationale 20%. This signaled the end of the UN and the rise of the PQ. The UN itself was a result of the death of the Conservatives in Quebec and its creation under the UN banner (and under Duplessis) in the 1930s.

IOW, there's a possibility that the baton bleu will be passed off to the ADQ in this election.

Why? First, the defeat in 1995 was not definitive but it came close enough. Parizeau had to compromise with Bouchard and even that compromise didn't work. It is apparent to all that unless Quebecers are prepared to vote seriously for an independant country, the PQ approach will not work.

Second, the election of 10 Conservatives in the last federal election shows that many francophone Quebecers are still willing to try the beau risque.

This passing of the torch - if passing there is - differs from Levesque's change in 1970. In 1970, Levesque was an ex-Liberal (like Dumont) but one who sought and had credentials in Montreal's intellectual elite. Lévesque had to tone down the urban slant of péquisme. Dumont is from Rivière-du-Loup (although he graduated in economics from Concordia.) He and the ADQ, to put it mildly, have problems in Montreal.

----

In many ways, I prefer the Dumont approach to politics and Canada than the Lévesque approach. Politics is the art of the possible; it's not an art of the ideal.

With this Quebec election, Harper may have the smile of the proverbial Cheshire cat on his face.

[August1991]

An op-ed by a Montreal academic in the Toronto Star:

Let's face it, things are not going well for the Parti Québécois. Their campaign doesn't seem to be taking off and some pundits suggest the PQ might come third – a result that would be, at best, humbling or, at worst, humiliating.

But will the PQ disappear?

....

But Mario Dumont's ADQ has momentum and the PQ is stalled, right?

The problem is that as the PQ's numbers go down they inch toward the party's core constituency of left-leaning sovereignists, and each new vote is harder to get for the ADQ. Indeed, for a federalist party of the right like the ADQ, disgruntled Liberals are a natural source of votes.

The problem is that as the PQ's numbers go down they inch toward the party's core constituency of left-leaning sovereignists, and each new vote is harder to get for the ADQ. Indeed, for a federalist party of the right like the ADQ, disgruntled Liberals are a natural source of votes.

Also, Dumont's rise will invariably lead the media and the voters to scrutinize aspects of the ADQ's populist platform that don't make sense.

That's what a Montreal academic would say.

They will soon attach the term *scary, scary* to Dumont while finding weird quotes from its candidates.

If the worst-case scenario happens and the PQ finishes third, some federalists in Quebec and elsewhere will probably unfold the "Mission Accomplished" banner and proclaim the death of the PQ. That would be premature.

Second, sovereignty is not dead.

Amidst all the pre-election polls, one result seemingly went unnoticed. Last month CROP asked its respondents the 1995 referendum question; 48 per cent answered yes.

This is true but the 1995 question still implies political and economic connection to Canada - a position that is closer to what ADQ advocates.

A third reason not to write off the PQ is that the left is not dead.

The rise of the ADQ and of Harper's Conservatives in Quebec has led some to ponder whether the province might have shifted markedly to the right.

In fact, on most issues polls reveal that Quebecers still tend to lean toward the left.

This is debateable but QS is taking up the independance Left vote.

---

I agree that the PQ is far from dead but a political change is occurring in Quebec and the likelihood of a minority government because the ADQ has over 10 seats is large.

For many urban intellectual pequistes, this is hard to understand. They and the PQ are out of touch with their fellow Quebecers and have been for some time.

[Mad_Michael]

For many urban intellectual pequistes, this is hard to understand. They and the PQ are out of touch with their fellow Quebecers and have been for some time.

Yes - some might argue they've been out of touch for a long time.

One only has to look at the average PQ voter - white males getting old. Totally out of touch with the reality of Quebec today.

[White Doors]

For many urban intellectual pequistes, this is hard to understand. They and the PQ are out of touch with their fellow Quebecers and have been for some time.

Yes - some might argue they've been out of touch for a long time.

One only has to look at the average PQ voter - white males getting old. Totally out of touch with the reality of Quebec today.

And you would now this because you live in Toronto right?

[August1991]

One only has to look at the average PQ voter - white males getting old. Totally out of touch with the reality of Quebec today.

In fact, PQ voters tend to be young and as female as male. It is with age that people turn federalist.

The PQ has also lost its right wing support and has become too left, union-oriented and too urban.

----

There was a very interesting piece by Ian Macdonald in the National Post today:

What's happening is that longtime PQ voters who can't stand the idea of Andre Boisclair, but can't bring themselves to vote for Charest and the Liberals, are parking with Mario. Though he's only 36, this is his fourth campaign. He has name recognition. He supported the Yes side in the 1995 referendum, but he has since called for a moratorium on future referendums, a view shared by the vast majority of voters. So he has a comfort level with soft nationalist voters.

Dumont's achievement in this campaign, like Harper's in the federal election, is to break decades of polarization between the federalist and separatist camps.

The possibility that a federalist party could actually finish second, relegating the separatists to third place, means this is potentially a realignment election.

Macdonald also made this comment which shows Harper's astuteness:

So in a sense, Harper has two horses in this Quebec race, and while he's betting on Charest to win, he'll be delighted if Dumont finishes in the money, especially if he's second rather than third.

Asked in an interview in the current issue of Policy Options whether he saw Charest's re-election as being in the national interest, Harper acknowledged: "That's a difficult question for me."

He went on: "I think we work well, in an important and productive way with the Quebec government. We could cite examples like the agreement on UNESCO, the recognition of the Quebecois nation, Autoroute 30, there are many important files."

"And at the same time I respect Mr. Charest. Mr. Charest is a former leader of the Conservative Party at the federal level. We haven't forgotten that. At the same time I lead a party that is a coalition at the provincial level. I note only that Mr. Charest is a strong federalist, a great defender of Canada."

"There's another party leader, Mr. Dumont, who doesn't want another referendum. I can and must say as Prime Minister that the position of the Parti Quebecois, another referendum and the uncertainty, the possibility of separation, that these things aren't in the interests of Canada and in my view aren't in the higher interest of Quebecers."

The interview was in early January, so even then Harper was seeing his way down the field of the Quebec election.

[Michael Bluth]

Yes - some might argue they've been out of touch for a long time.

One only has to look at the average PQ voter - white males getting old. Totally out of touch with the reality of Quebec today.

Your view is better ascribed to the Montréal of today.

Québec does not begin and end with Montréal sir. Just like Ontario does not begin and end with Toronto...

[Charles Anthony]

Welcome, MB, to the forum.

[jbg]

revendications...

revendications??? (new word for me).

What does that mean?

[fellowtraveller]

Wow, what a horrific 18 months this has been for the PQ, and for the BQ.

Their joint and separate prospects were very very sweet back then.

The federal government was a complete shambles, ineffective and corrupt. Adscam made Quebecers look like crooked buffoons. Charest was in full retreat and predicted to finish last in any provincial election.

Now.....none of that is happening.

Quebec voters are certainly the most pragmatic bunch in the country, they vote to keep their bread buttered, and buttered well. Perhaps they are recognizing that the gravy does not dwell in the house of the PQ/BQ any longer.

[WestViking]

Wow, what a horrific 18 months this has been for the PQ, and for the BQ.

Their joint and separate prospects were very very sweet back then.

The federal government was a complete shambles, ineffective and corrupt. Adscam made Quebecers look like crooked buffoons. Charest was in full retreat and predicted to finish last in any provincial election.

Now.....none of that is happening.

Quebec voters are certainly the most pragmatic bunch in the country, they vote to keep their bread buttered, and buttered well. Perhaps they are recognizing that the gravy does not dwell in the house of the PQ/BQ any longer.

The BQ/PQ have simply run out of relevance. They have not delivered the utopia they have promised for three decades and are unlikely to ever be able to live out their fantasies. They are done. Stick in a fork.

[jbg]

The BQ/PQ have simply run out of relevance. They have not delivered the utopia they have promised for three decades and are unlikely to ever be able to live out their fantasies. They are done. Stick in a fork.

Will Canada/Quebec ever get back to two or three-party politics, without a significant regional separatist party? There'd be much less aspect of a jigsaw puzzle in Parliament if that were the case, and I bet fewer minority governments.

[August1991]

The BQ/PQ have simply run out of relevance. They have not delivered the utopia they have promised for three decades and are unlikely to ever be able to live out their fantasies. They are done. Stick in a fork.

A fork? Not yet. But I have to agree with your basic idea, WestViking.

In this election, there are several (minor) things going on: Dissatisfaction with Charest and his lack of passion for Quebec. There is the incompetence/breaking of promises of the Liberal government's four years. In addition, there is dissatisfaction with Boisclair as PQ leader. He says the wrong things and snorted Coke.

These (minor) things are politics as usual. Like the usual Left/Right type arguments. True, this is mixed up in the Left/Right or urban/region type disagreements. Les gens du plateau (a Montreal urban neighbourhood) don't like Dumont, and even less Harper & Bush.

But there is a bigger thing going on and that is the fatigue of this current version of la Question nationale.

I think it is the PQ that will suffer most from this bigger thing. The PQ under Levesque created Sovereignty-Association and under Morin étapisme to obtain this. This doesn't work. In hindsight, I now realize that Parizeau's compromise with Bouchard was the first nail in the coffin but the defeat in 1995, even after Parizeau's compromise, was another.

Harper's 10 Quebec seats - 8 in the Beauce and Quebec City were the final nails.

The PQ approach to defending Quebec's interests doesn't work. Levesque's idea was good and honest but irrealistic. Another way is being sought. Admitting this is hard to do. (Hence the comparisons of Dumont to Duplessis - or even Foglia's comparison to Berlusconi and Le Pen. Ouach!)

In the Quebec election debate, when Dumont brandished the memos against Charest, his attack was just as much against the PQ. Dumont was saying to Quebecers: this is what these silly PQ/Liberal federalist/sovereignist debates have lead to.

So, the PQ will die. Something else will take its place and I suspect that its replacement will be - as Charest described Dumont - more coriace.

This is far from the final chapter.

[jbg]

But in the Quebec election debate, when Dumont brandished the memos against Charest, his attack was just as much against the PQ. Dumont was saying to Quebecers: this is what these silly PQ/Liberal federalist/sovereignist debates have lead to.

What memo?

[August1991]

What memo?

That's like asking during Watergate, "What tape?"

Let me quote the "State-financed news agency". (Admirably, the CBC's Internet link will last for a year or two.)

Dumont caught everyone by surprise when he pulled out a document he claimed was from the Transport Ministry. He said it warned of cracks and fissures in the Laval Concorde overpass a year before it collapsed in September 2006, killing five people.

The ADQ leader waved the document around and demanded to know why Charest didn't act to fix the overpass.

The debate's moderator, Jacques Moisan, chastized Dumont repeatedly for trying to show the document on television, while Charest replied to Dumont's peppering, saying he had no idea what the ADQ leader was talking about.

Charest encouraged him to give the papers to the commission investigating the collapse.

"Pulling a rabbit out of your hat like that, it's not in a debate that we're going to solve this," he said. "Never has my government taken any risk with public safety."

CBC

While I'm on this.

revendications??? (new word for me).

What does that mean?

I should have said "traditional demands", to give this French word its English-Canadian twist.

[jbg]

August 1991, thanks on both counts. While I know a tiny amount about Canada, sometimes I want to know more.

[Charles Anthony]

Let me quote the "State-financed news agency". (Admirably, the CBC's Internet link will last for a year or two.)

You ARE getting bitter with them!

I thought it was bad enough that they choose to hold the debate on a hockey night with all three Eastern teams on the ice!

[August1991]

I thought it was bad enough that they choose to hold the debate on a hockey night with all three Eastern teams on the ice!

Charles, I have to respond.

I skated in the Bell Centre today. It was a benefit for the Dawson College shooting.

For those who know, a North American rink is small but the audience is large. A European rink is large but the audience is small.

I had fun and for a moment, looking up into all those seats and skating fast, I enjoyed life - despite all.

[Charles Anthony]

I had fun and for a moment, looking up into all those seats and skating fast, I enjoyed life - despite all.

I did not mean to suggest that you are not one to be able to have fun. If that is how it came across, I should have just kept my big trap shut. [You are probably thinking "Finally! He is starting to think straight!"]

Your biting sarcastic re-labelling of the CBC made me chuckle. I do not ever recall you referring to them with such condescencion -- not that I do not think it is warranted, mind you.

Do you think the date chosen for that first debate was merely a coincidence or am I being too ridiculously cynical?

For those who know, a North American rink is small but the audience is large.

I do not know the numbers but my highly biased a$$umption would be that more Quebec voters were watching that hockey game than the debate. I would bet that RDI would make the same a$$umption too.

Aug91, have you been following the Habs recently? You must have heard about the Kovalev overseas interview.

The franchise is struggling for a play-off spot this year (the Leafs too, but that is nothing new) and there has been a LOT of press recently about them. Everybody is talking about what they should do, whose head to cut off, should we blame Gainey? should we blame Carbonneau? etc. etc. I wonder if Montreal fans really feel that they need to hoist the Stanley Cup again and again but it certainly seems like part of their dignity lies in at least making the playoffs.

The Kovalev shenanigan is the cherry on top of le Canadien cake this season. It is a fiery Quebec political issue of its own kind. When everybody was going on about their accomodements raisonnables, Kovalev was condemning les Quebecois de souche for being racist.