Bob Rae out ahead in poll of Canadians

[gerryhatrick]

Rae public favourite for Liberal leadership: poll

CTV.ca News Staff

Among Canadians, Bob Rae is the preferred choice over Michael Ignatieff to win the Liberal leadership race -- even thought they think Ignatieff has a better chance of winning the next federal election for the Liberals, a Toronto Star/EKOS poll has concluded.

The 1,211 Canadians polled between Oct. 10-12 gave Rae 26 per cent of the public vote while Ignatieff received 21 per cent. Former Ontario education minister Gerard Kennedy and Quebec MP Stephane Dion both received 12 per cent of the vote.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Queue up all the "oh Bob is HATED in Ontario" natterers.

I've been predicting he'll be the Liberal leader, and I believe he'll make a good one. Detracters can yap about what made him unpopular in Ontario if they like, and they will obviously. Realisticly though what politician isn't going to have an unpopular period after upwards of what....25 years at the game?

Talk about that ancient history if you like, but then don't complain when Harpers old rightwing quotes are thrown at you.

[Topaz]

I agree with you on Rae. I've decided NOT to vote for the party but the person this time around. As far as that Ontarians hating him, I think Harris has taken over that position. Rae did the best he could for the times because of the recession. I want to see Harper to look across the aisle after the Liberal elctions and see Rae standing there with a big smile on his face!!!

[cybercoma]

It's just unfortunate that his unpopular "period" happened to be the entire time he was Premier of Ontario. People being 'required' to take time off without pay will leave a bad taste in the mouths of those who can remember further back than 15 years. I wonder how many civil servants still hold a grudge for those days?

[Borg]

Bring on Rae!!!

Ontario loves him. ;-]

Rae days for the entire country - yahoo!

Borg

[jbg]

Perhaps a Rae of sunshine for the CPC.

[jdobbin]

I still don't know who I support as leader. I have no idea if Rae is the guy who can re-united the Liberals and give them a re-newed direction.

I think Ignatieff has a few week to ensure his campaign becomes more focused. He isn't the first leader to have some stumbles. Rae has run a smoother campaign. His reputation in Ontario will be one that has to be overcome. It is less likely to have an impact in the rest of the country.

[jbg]

I still don't know who I support as leader. I have no idea if Rae is the guy who can re-united the Liberals and give them a re-newed direction.

I think Ignatieff has a few week to ensure his campaign becomes more focused. He isn't the first leader to have some stumbles. Rae has run a smoother campaign. His reputation in Ontario will be one that has to be overcome. It is less likely to have an impact in the rest of the country.

Not until the rest of the country is educated on his audition for the gong show in Ontario.

[jdobbin]

Not until the rest of the country is educated on his audition for the gong show in Ontario.

I think you're hoping for a bit much there. Provincial politics rarely interests Canadians elsewhere except for policy wonks.

[jbg]

Not until the rest of the country is educated on his audition for the gong show in Ontario.

I think you're hoping for a bit much there. Provincial politics rarely interests Canadians elsewhere except for plicy wonks.

Except ON is a bit more prominent than other provinces in news coverage. Also, I'm quite sure that his record will become an issue. One's accomplishments in governing are far more telling than the handling of internal disagreements within a party (referring to your first draft of the answer).

[August1991]

I think Ignatieff has a few week to ensure his campaign becomes more focused. He isn't the first leader to have some stumbles. Rae has run a smoother campaign. His reputation in Ontario will be one that has to be overcome. It is less likely to have an impact in the rest of the country.

I agree that it's far too early to count Ignatieff out. And Rae may lead in public opinion polls but it's his appeal to Liberal delegates that counts now.

I still think that, all things considered, Dion will win. In the fight between Rae and Ignatieff, Dion is the obvious compromise candidate. He was one of the few (if sole) Liberals who survived the Chretien-Martin Civil War with his reputation intact. (It's noteworthy that the federal Liberals have had to go outside their party to find leadership candidates.) Dion even got through the Sponsorship Scandal with no personal implication. I think the Tories would have a hard time pinning anything on him. In political terms, he has found the Holy Grail - a Teflon Coating.

I'd bet that Dion is second on many delegates' list.

[jdobbin]

Except ON is a bit more prominent than other provinces in news coverage. Also, I'm quite sure that his record will become an issue. One's accomplishments in governing are far more telling than the handling of internal disagreements within a party (referring to your first draft of the answer).

It's quite possible he might not be able to overcome even Liberal delegates from Ontario.

[jdobbin]

I agree that it's far too early to count Ignatieff out. And Rae may lead in public opinion polls but it's his appeal to Liberal delegates that counts now.

I still think that, all things considered, Dion will win. In the fight between Rae and Ignatieff, Dion is the obvious compromise candidate. He was one of the few (if sole) Liberals who survived the Chretien-Martin Civil War with his reputation intact. (It's noteworthy that the federal Liberals have had to go outside their party to find leadership candidates.) Dion even got through the Sponsorship Scandal with no personal implication. I think the Tories would have a hard time pinning anything on him. In political terms, he has found the Holy Grail - a Teflon Coating.

I'd bet that Dion is second on many delegates' list.

It is quite possible. We'll have see how Kennedy and Dryden go when it comes to decision time at the convention.

[August1991]

It is quite possible. We'll have see how Kennedy and Dryden go when it comes to decision time at the convention.

I don't think Dryden matters that much either in terms of his own delegates (assuming he could sway them) or in terms of other delegates (given his reputation).

Kennedy has the power to be a kingmaker but from what I can gather, he also has a large ego. That means he foolishly thinks he can win and so he'll stay in rather than exercise his power to decide the winner.

I thought that Ignatieff had enough support to get 50% at the convention but with these latest gaffes, I don't think his "growth potential" is there. Instead, Rae and Ignatieff are now fairly matched rivals but neither can win. The default is Dion.

But dobbin, I agree that Dion needs a strong endorsement from an English Canadian Liberal but Dryden can't offer that and Kennedy apparently won't. Who would it be? Has Lloyd Axworthy declared? It would really take someone who could have been a rival.

In the 1968 leadership, Pearson at first wanted Marchand to run but Marchand would have none of it. He knew that his English wasn't good enough and he didn't understand English Canada well enough. Marchand told Trudeau to do it. Even Trudeau, whose mother was English, was not confident enough of his support in English Canada. Mitchell Sharp's decision to support Trudeau was critical.

Dion is ambitious but I don't know if English-Canadians quite understand how daunting it is for someone from Quebec to venture out into Canadian politics. I'm sure Dion keeps reminding himself that if the Jesuits and others could do it, leaving their names all over the continent, then so can he.

[jdobbin]

It is quite possible. We'll have see how Kennedy and Dryden go when it comes to decision time at the convention.

I don't think Dryden matters that much either in terms of his own delegates (assuming he could sway them) or in terms of other delegates (given his reputation).

Kennedy has the power to be a kingmaker but from what I can gather, he also has a large ego. That means he foolishly thinks he can win and so he'll stay in rather than exercise his power to decide the winner.

I thought that Ignatieff had enough support to get 50% at the convention but with these latest gaffes, I don't think his "growth potential" is there. Instead, Rae and Ignatieff are now fairly matched rivals but neither can win. The default is Dion.

But dobbin, I agree that Dion needs a strong endorsement from an English Canadian Liberal but Dryden can't offer that and Kennedy apparently won't. Who would it be? Has Lloyd Axworthy declared? It would really take someone who could have been a rival.

In the 1968 leadership, Pearson at first wanted Marchand to run but Marchand would have none of it. He knew that his English wasn't good enough and he didn't understand English Canada well enough. Marchand told Trudeau to do it. Even Trudeau, whose mother was English, was not confident enough of his support in English Canada. Mitchell Sharp's decision to support Trudeau was critical.

Dion is ambitious but I don't know if English-Canadians quite understand how daunting it is for someone from Quebec to venture out into Canadian politics. I'm sure Dion keeps reminding himself that if the Jesuits and others could do it, leaving their names all over the continent, then so can he.

Axworthy has declared for Rae. So have Howard Pawley and Michael Decter.

Dion is well liked and Axworthy has an anyone but Ignatieff policy.

[Ricki Bobbi]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. The only potential Liberal leader who can win in the spring is Rae.

[Michael Hardner]

t is quite possible. We'll have see how Kennedy and Dryden go when it comes to decision time at the convention.

I can't see Kennedy NOT going for Rae.

[Guest Warwick Green]

It's just unfortunate that his unpopular "period" happened to be the entire time he was Premier of Ontario. People being 'required' to take time off without pay will leave a bad taste in the mouths of those who can remember further back than 15 years. I wonder how many civil servants still hold a grudge for those days?

It's a long way from winning a poll to winning an election. Rae's whole period as Premier of Ontario will be an election issue if he is elected Lib leader, as I expect he will be. Let's see how much of it sticks. Okay, so Bobby has Rae Days to explain, but Stevie will have Afghanistan.

[betsy]

Well...when you breath the word "fraud" right next to a Liberal....what are the chances it means goodbye?

They've just associated that dreaded word with Rae.

I guess we'll all be waving bye-bye.

[sharkman]

It's a long way from winning a poll to winning an election. Rae's whole period as Premier of Ontario will be an election issue if he is elected Lib leader, as I expect he will be. Let's see how much of it sticks. Okay, so Bobby has Rae Days to explain, but Stevie will have Afghanistan.

Actually Martin put us in Afghanistan. Not that I'm complaining.

[Guest Warwick Green]

It's a long way from winning a poll to winning an election. Rae's whole period as Premier of Ontario will be an election issue if he is elected Lib leader, as I expect he will be. Let's see how much of it sticks. Okay, so Bobby has Rae Days to explain, but Stevie will have Afghanistan.

Actually Martin put us in Afghanistan. Not that I'm complaining.

And Harper is keeping us there. I support the mission in Afghanistan too but it's going to be an issue in the next election, whether we like it or not.

But, you are right, Martin having put us there will blunt any Liberal attacks.

[watching&waiting]

I must laugh a bit when I see all this talk of Harper is going to have to expalain Afghanistan. First off it was the liberal who put us there, and also it was them who had us going to a battlefront position. Yes Harper agreed to extend the mission and if he is pushed to explain it, then the people of Canada will know that it was the right choice. Does anyone think that extending the mission was wrong? If so maybe you can say why you feel that way. You see we are committed to the NATO, and under that very treaty we have been called upon by Nato to supply the contingent of troops and equipment we see there today. We are doing the job asked of us, because it is in the best interests of the Nato community to make Afghanistan a self sufficient democratic country, where they can stand on their own and make the lives of their people a much better place to be.

I do not think Harper expalining Afghanistan is a thing the opposition wants, because it is only that he has not really given the country the true and simple explanation of why the mission is what it is, that there is any controversey at all.

Now with Rae having to explain his past and his supposed total change in his methods and thinking goes, that will require the voters to take a leap of faith and I do not think they will be able to do that. But as I said before, I am all for Rae becoming liberal leader, as he will assure the rext of us a majority CPC government.

[Ricki Bobbi]

While it is an unfortunate double-standard Harper will have to explain our presence in Afghanistan.

That's why we want Iggy to win. Aghanistan won't be much of an issue with Iggy at the helm.

[Guest Warwick Green]

While it is an unfortunate double-standard Harper will have to explain our presence in Afghanistan.

That's why we want Iggy to win. Aghanistan won't be much of an issue with Iggy at the helm.

It's going to be an issue. How much, who knows? Can the Liberals argue, "okay we sent them in to 'reconstruct' Afghanistan but the Tories led us into a war?" Will the public buy such a distinction? And of course Jack ("a curse on both their houses") Layton will just want all the troops pulled out of Afghanistan and sent to god-knows-where.

[jbg]

While it is an unfortunate double-standard Harper will have to explain our presence in Afghanistan.

That's why we want Iggy to win. Aghanistan won't be much of an issue with Iggy at the helm.

Iggy will ifnd a way to "waffle" his position. Wasn't Paul Martin known as "Mr. Dithers" for a similar reason?

[Ricki Bobbi]

Iggy will ifnd a way to "waffle" his position. Wasn't Paul Martin known as "Mr. Dithers" for a similar reason?

Iggy waffling is great for us.

No way the Liberals try and make an issue of Afghanistant with Iggy at the helm. Waaaaay too much can go wrong with that one.