How will the Bush Administration Respond to N. Korea?

[August1991]

Christopher Hill:

In the event of a nuclear test, Hill said, ‘‘We would have no choice but to act and act resolutely to make sure (North Korea) understood, and make sure every other country in the world understands, that this is a very bad mistake.’’

Rumsfeld:

‘‘Because of the ineffectiveness, and the lack of cohesion and the inability to marshal sufficient leverage to prevent North Korea from proceeding toward a nuclear program ... it will kind of lower the threshold, and other countries will step forward with it,’’ Rumsfeld said.

He added that depending on whether the test is above or below ground, the United States has as good a capability of detecting it as any country. But he declined to say whether or not it would trigger any U.S. military action.

‘‘I wouldn’t be the person who would make a decision like that. That’s a decision for the country, and a decision for president,’’ Rumsfeld said.

Link

If the claims of a nuclear test prove true, I think the US has to do something forceful but I don't know what that will be. All eyes will be on the White House in the coming days.

[geoffrey]

Shoot/ dynamite cigar (failed with Castro though, low success rate)/ send in ninjas (high supply over there) to take Kim Jong-il out of the picture. He's soley the problem. Him gone, peace becomes a much more likely prospect.

[theloniusfleabag]

Dear August1991,

from...

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/...009-rferl01.htm

South Korean media report that the test was conducted at 10:36 a.m. local time near Kilju, in the northeast of the country. U.S. and South Korean intelligence detected a seismic event at the site.

The problem goes far beyond the USA...

All eyes will be on the White House in the coming days.

(from the above link)

Japan has said the test is "unpardonable" and poses a "grave threat" to the region. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, on a visit to South Korea, said Japan will discuss the test with China and the United States

geoffrey,

take Kim Jong-il out of the picture. He's soley the problem. Him gone, peace becomes a much more likely prospect

Assassinations of foreign leaders are still technically illegal according to the US constitution. A 'regime change' may be needed, but that likely would requre invasion.

Aha, forgive me, I just read the other thread in 'the rest of the world' regarding this, so August1991's question should be answered in the context of US response.

The US will likely bluster, and possibly impose further sanctions, but they are fairly useless. The people suffer, not the leaders. Further, the sanctions already in place have been labeled by MK as 'provocative', and have done nothin. More of nothing shouldn't really be considered, but if the US isn't actually planning to do anything, then more sanctions will be at the top of the list.

[crazymf]

I'm more worried about which side of the fence China will be if the poop hits the fan.

[Charles Anthony]

This nuclear test is analogous to firing a gun in the air (albeit, in the opposite direction) in a crowd of people to capture everybody's attention. Nobody is going to start a nuclear war but rather, they want something. It would be wise to figure out what they want.

A 'regime change' may be needed, but that likely would requre invasion.

Not necessarily invasion. All of the neighboring countries could fire their rockets and war-heads simultaneously. Morbid, I know but we should ask: why has it not already happened???

I think the answer is because somebody outside of North Korea depends on North Korea's regime to stay the same. Who does trade with North Korea??? Can sanctions be placed on them?

The US will likely bluster, and possibly impose further sanctions, but they are fairly useless.

Indeed, they are useless.

The only way sanctions can do harm is if trading partners exist. The fact that people do trade with North Korea demonstrates that we need them as well as they need us -- directly or indirectly.

The North Korean ambassador to the United Nations said something to the effect that Bush should be congratulating the engineers of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea for their success. In a sense, he is right. The rest of the world should accept the fact that if a country wants nuclear weapons capabilities enough, the market will see that it happens. Unless other countries are willing to go to war to stop it, they should just wake up and smell the coffee.

If this is the continuation of an arms race and the North Koreans sell their technology to rogue states or non-state entities, I fear we are in for trouble. We would be wise to figure out what North Korea trully wants and to make them prosperous. The North Korean leadership can be bought.

I'm more worried about which side of the fence China will be if the poop hits the fan.

They are like every other country: they are in it for the money. The leadership in China will not make money by having a nuclear war next door -- unless they believe they can control North Korea and expand Chinese borders.

[theloniusfleabag]

Dear Charles Anthony,

This nuclear test is analogous to firing a gun in the air (albeit, in the opposite direction) in a crowd of people to capture everybody's attention. Nobody is going to start a nuclear war but rather, they want something. It would be wise to figure out what they want.

The 'gun in the air analogy' is a bit different in this case, becasue the issue was whether or not the person should even have the gun. The overwhelming feeling was no, that person should not have a gun, and yet he fired it in the air. Either you respond, "Fine, keep the gun", or the mob rushes him and takes it away.

If this is the continuation of an arms race and the North Koreans sell their technology to rogue states or non-state entities, I fear we are in for trouble. We would be wise to figure out what North Korea trully wants and to make them prosperous. The North Korean leadership can be bought.

We cannot simply buy off madmen when they appear...in some ways, Kim Jong Il is like Hitler, in that he doesn't really care about the people in his country, only craving personal power and prestige guide his actions.

unless they believe they can control North Korea and expand Chinese borders

China already 'controls NK' they don't need to expand their borders. They are losing their grip on it's leader, however.

[Charles Anthony]

The 'gun in the air analogy' is a bit different in this case, becasue the issue was whether or not the person should even have the gun.

Forgive me but that issue is now moot.

or the mob rushes him and takes it away.

That is what I suggested too.

We cannot simply buy off madmen when they appear...in some ways, Kim Jong Il is like Hitler, in that he doesn't really care about the people in his country,

Wrong. He needs his own people more than anybody else. From where would his power and wealth come otherwise?

The North Korean leader can not just up and set up business outside of North Korea.

China already 'controls NK' they don't need to expand their borders. They are losing their grip on it's leader, however.

What are you saying? Either China controls him or not.

[August1991]

China already 'controls NK' they don't need to expand their borders. They are losing their grip on it's leader, however.

North Korea didn't make up this technology on its own. It got the the technology either from China or Russia.

I had first thought of the US reaction since the US is perhaps the only country capable of doing anything. Here's what Bush said, somewhat cryptically:

We reaffirmed our commitment to a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, and all of us agreed that the proclaimed actions taken by North Korea are unacceptable and deserve an immediate response by the United Nations Security Council.

White House

On second thought, it may be the Chinese who will respond.

[bradco]

Am I the only person who thinks trying to overthrow a government with a nuclear weapon might be a bad idea. If he is going down is the only time he would use the thing. That is kind of the point of getting it in the first place. Its a deterrant. If the west wants to take it away they ought to give North Korea something. Maybe give him something on the condition some food gets to the starving population. If we in the west expect people to live under a double standard without compensation we are very mistaken.

[Shady]

It got the the technology either from China or Russia

From what I've read, the former Clinton Administration had a lot to do with North Korea furthering their nuclear program. The lefties love to post the picture of Rumsfeld shaking hands with Saddam Hussein 25 years ago. Well, I've got one better, from only a few years ago.

Pic

Champagne anyone?

[August1991]

If the west wants to take it away they ought to give North Korea something. Maybe give him something on the condition some food gets to the starving population.

Maybe the US should give him a small island in the Caribbean with a well-stocked Blockbuster and promises that Albright will stop by every so often with a few cases of Veuve Clicquot and Hennessy:

He has other rarefied tastes as well. Kim is a world-class cineaste; by the 1970s his collection had grown to more than 15,000 films (on reels -- this was before videocassettes and DVDs). He especially loves Hollywood movies. His favorites include Rambo, Friday the 13th, the James Bond series, and Hong Kong action films. His favorite stars are Elizabeth Taylor and Sean Connery.

Link

I guess someone would also have to show him how to work the DVD player.

[sharkman]

This is a mess from the Clinton administration. They signed a treaty with NK that gave NK millions to not develop nuclear weapons. NK took the cash and didn't live up to their agreement. It's too late now to try and take the weapons away. The U.S. said as much by their actions when this first came to light, what, over a year ago? The U.S. did nothing. It seemed they had their hands full with Afghanistan and Iraq. NK's strategy in this matter could have been to wait for such a time to announce they had weapons.

At any rate China seems to be content to let NK be another distraction for the U.S. government. All the U.S. can do at this point is sanctions and they have announced a partial embargo, where they will board ships bound for NK and inspect the cargo.

This lesson should not be lost on the world. Iran has learned it. Sign a treaty and do whatever the hell you want. Will the U.S. do the same thing and expect different results? Not while Bush is in power.

[JerrySeinfeld]

It got the the technology either from China or Russia

From what I've read, the former Clinton Administration had a lot to do with North Korea furthering their nuclear program. The lefties love to post the picture of Rumsfeld shaking hands with Saddam Hussein 25 years ago. Well, I've got one better, from only a few years ago.

Pic

Champagne anyone?

That is a GREAT picture and illustrates so much about the problems in our world today vis a vis blaming BUSH for everything - even 9-11 which was planned long before Bush took office.

[Liam]

This is a mess from the Clinton administration. They signed a treaty with NK that gave NK millions to not develop nuclear weapons. NK took the cash and didn't live up to their agreement. It's too late now to try and take the weapons away. The U.S. said as much by their actions when this first came to light, what, over a year ago? The U.S. did nothing. It seemed they had their hands full with Afghanistan and Iraq. NK's strategy in this matter could have been to wait for such a time to announce they had weapons.

At any rate China seems to be content to let NK be another distraction for the U.S. government. All the U.S. can do at this point is sanctions and they have announced a partial embargo, where they will board ships bound for NK and inspect the cargo.

This lesson should not be lost on the world. Iran has learned it. Sign a treaty and do whatever the hell you want. Will the U.S. do the same thing and expect different results? Not while Bush is in power.

You can't blame Clinton when Bush has had six years to address North Korea. Five years after labeling them part of the Axis of Evil, Bush did nothing to stop their nuclear ambitions.

But to answer the question posed by the O.P., how will the Bush Admin. respond?, I expect their response will be fully political, fully geared towards the November elections, fully aimed at the Clinton policy's failure, and then fully scrubbed from the administration's memory by the time the last polls close on election day.

[sharkman]

Yes, I can. NK was under a treaty that Jimmy Carter(no less) was instrumental in spearheading under the Clinton Administration. So NK was 'taken care of', only Kim ignored the treaty and probably spent the aid money on nuclear research. Is Bush supposedd to analyze every single thing Clinton did in eight years looking for failures?

But of course the solution is to deal with the present situation and not play the blame game, something Bush has avoided doing. I wonder if Clinton will pop up somewhere wringing his hands and pointing his finger at the interviewer, claiming he tried his hardest with NK blah blah blah. I bet he will, before the elections.

[GostHacked]

Am I the only person who thinks trying to overthrow a government with a nuclear weapon might be a bad idea. If he is going down is the only time he would use the thing. That is kind of the point of getting it in the first place. Its a deterrant. If the west wants to take it away they ought to give North Korea something. Maybe give him something on the condition some food gets to the starving population. If we in the west expect people to live under a double standard without compensation we are very mistaken.

This is the reason they went after Iraq first. They did not have the nukes or WMDs. No no major threat to the troops when they invaded. Saddam was a kook, but Kim (I think) would actually use them on the threat of invasion. More so than Saddam et al.

[B. Max]

You can't blame Clinton when Bush has had six years to address North Korea. Five years after labeling them part of the Axis of Evil, Bush did nothing to stop their nuclear ambitions.

What was he suppose to do. Ask funny boy to give back the nuke technology that Clinton gave them. As someone said at the end of the Clinton white house and I forget who it was, we will be haunted for years to come as a result of the failed Clinton administration.

[Higgly]

This is the reason they went after Iraq first. They did not have the nukes or WMDs. No no major threat to the troops when they invaded. Saddam was a kook, but Kim (I think) would actually use them on the threat of invasion. More so than Saddam et al.

The reason they went to Iraq was strategic. The idea was to control the Middle East by putting a big ol' friendly demo-cratic state right in the middle of the whole shee-bang. Even the CIA wouldn't confirm Bush's ravings about weapons of mass destruction prior to the invasion. Rumsfeld was carrying on about invading Iraq before 9/11 occurred. They wanted to go in before the weapons inspectors were finished because if they had allowed them to finish and announce they had found nothing, the whole case for war would have been shot to hell.

I saw an interview with an oil analyst from Morgan Stanley on the business channel a while back. The guy said there wasn't enough oil in Iraq to pay for the cost of the invasion and occupation.

[Higgly]

What was he suppose to do. Ask funny boy to give back the nuke technology that Clinton gave them. As someone said at the end of the Clinton white house and I forget who it was, we will be haunted for years to come as a result of the failed Clinton administration.

All of the current problems will go away as soon as George Bush leaves office? By the way, there was no nuclear proliferation while Clinton was in the White House.

[B. Max]

Yes and all of the current problems will go away as soon as George Bush leaves office!

Wishful but foolish thinking.

[BubberMiley]

Bush has been pissing around in Iraq for six years looking for nonexistent WMD. He has done NOTHING regarding North Korea during this time. At least Clinton tried to deal with the situation. Bush just ignored it, and now it's too late. The Bush administration has been one incident of incompetence piled on another for six years.

At least this information is out before the midterms, because the electorate will finally be able to clearly see just how incompetent the Republicans are when it comes to national security.

[Riverwind]

This is a mess from the Clinton administration. They signed a treaty with NK that gave NK millions to not develop nuclear weapons. NK took the cash and didn't live up to their agreement. It's too late now to try and take the weapons away.mp

What crap. North Korea has said over and over again that it wants nuclear weapons to protect itself from a US invasion. North Korea likely restarted its nuclear program the second US troops entered it Iraq. IOW Bush deserves 100% of the blame for the current situation. Anyone who denies this link or worse, tries to pin North Korea problem on Clinton is so friggen naive and blindly partisan it is scary. Even today NK has repeated its demand that the US sign a 'non-agression' pact - more evidence that the Bush regime's refusal to engage in constructive dialog with NK is what lead directly to the restarted nuclear problem.

This lesson should not be lost on the world. Iran has learned it. Sign a treaty and do whatever the hell you want. Will the U.S. do the same thing and expect different results? Not while Bush is in power.

The lesson the world needs to take from this if powerful nations like the US invade countries without UN approval then small countries will build nukes to protect themselves from the US. What the world needs is regime change in the US that puts in place a leader that understands the nature of cause and effect.

[jdobbin]

There is now a report of a second nuclear test in North Korea.

It's on the MSNBC main page.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/

[August1991]

IOW Bush deserves 100% of the blame for the current situation. Anyone who denies this link or worse, tries to pin North Korea problem on Clinton is so friggen naive and blindly partisan it is scary.

Riverwind, your posts here are usually balanced but in this case, it is you who are blindly partisan.

It is not the fault of Bush Snr, Clinton or Bush Jnr. North Korea is a remnant of the Cold War that no one really knew how to deal with or even whether it was worth dealing with. All US administrations since the collapse of the Soviet Union have worked actively to control nuclear weapons and to reign in rogue regimes.

There's a perception that the Republicans are moree hawkish than the Democrats but I'm not certain that's true. If Gore had been in the White House in September 2001, I think the reaction would have been much the same.

The lesson the world needs to take from this if powerful nations like the US invade countries without UN approval then small countries will build nukes to protect themselves from the US. What the world needs is regime change in the US that puts in place a leader that understands the nature of cause and effect.

Here we go again. Blame the US. Sorry Riverwind. Canada, Iceland, Finland, Mexico and Botswana are all "small" countries and none are seeking nuclear weapons.

Kim Dong-Il is the son of a pyschopath. He grew up in a seriously dysfunctional family. Imagine if Clifford Olson were dictator of some country.

Your argument makes about as much sense as saying that if the police arrest a criminal, that just encourages other criminals to shoot the police rather than be taken prisoner.

----

Why didn't the US deal with North Korea before? How could it?

In referring to bin Laden, Clinton himself said that the US didn't arrest him because it had no grounds to. Bush Jnr has faced endless criticsm because he ordered troops into Afghanistan and Iraq. Now it appears that both Clinton and Bush Jnr are being criticised because they didn't "deal" with North Korea before.

I frankly think the US has been restrained in its use of force.

But in this current situation, I simply don't see how the US government can sit idly by and let this whacko have access to a nuclear weapon. If Kim can have one, then it means anyone can. And the US cannot permit (thank God for the rest of us) such a world to exist. Fortunately, we live in a world where someone honest (Americans) can stand up to thugs (North Korea). As much as Leftists criticize the RCMP and CSIS, no Canadian confuses the Hell's Angels and the Mounties. The CIA is better than the KGB.

Here's the irony. The US, a country with a 2nd amendment, is about to enforce gun control on the rest of the world. But in Canada, people who favour banning hunting rifles are willing to let a psychotic have access to a nuclear device.

[B. Max]

Bush has been pissing around in Iraq for six years looking for nonexistent WMD. He has done NOTHING regarding North Korea during this time. At least Clinton tried to deal with the situation. Bush just ignored it, and now it's too late. The Bush administration has been one incident of incompetence piled on another for six years.

At least this information is out before the midterms, because the electorate will finally be able to clearly see just how incompetent the Republicans are when it comes to national security.

No Bush has taken out one of the players in the axis of evil. Clinton and gang yakked for eight years, gave NK aid and nuke technology. NK laughed at them, took everything they got and continued on building nukes. On the other hand Bush put together the six party talks. As soon as NK realized they weren't going to be able to screw the US again as they did with Clinton they walked away. NK's new strategy was to threaten US allies in the region mainly Japan. In an order to force the US at gun point to one on one talks. Their new supposedly nuke test is part of the same strategy. Once again the dems have popped up like bobble heads ready to take the bait again, and repeat the same mistakes of the past. What would they give them this time. Long range missle technology and sort out what seems to be problems with NK's A- bomb. I wouldn't be a bit surprised.