North Korea Conducts Nuclear Test

[jdobbin]

Why should Canada become directly involved when we have no reason to be. We don't have a military that is a global issue(U.S.), we aren't directly linked with N Korea via family (South Korea). We don't have a frightening past history with them (Japan and China) and we don't share a border with them (Russia). Although I agree this is a global issue now, the more powers that get involved, the more voices we hear, and the less clear communication becomes.

Never said Canada would ask to be involved. It's why I asked how the U.S. will respond.

Canada can't even send troops anywhere. We're committed to 2009 and possibly beyond.

[August1991]

If the North Koreans can do it in a salt mine, what would stop them from setting up a bomb in an abandoned warehouse beside the East River?

I don't believe it would serve their purpose. I don't see Kim Jong-Il as 'out to destroy the Great Satan', nor desiring war with them. Kim wants respect through fear, and while he has it in his own country, he seems to want it globally (well, at least regionally). He is claiming to be under threat, and is purely taking defensive measures. He is either a very bad liar, or he had a nut come loose (or should I say, another nut). A delusional paranoiac is never an asset to society (unless you are a home security salesman) and one in charge of a nuclear armed country is trouble.

Your post answers the question, Thelonious. God knows what runs through the mind of someone like Kim Jnr. Even if he were rational, I can see how he would view a bomb in an American city as increasing his bargaining power and setting one off would prove that his threat is credible.

Then again, he could just be an ordinary pyschopath.

As Bush noted in his statement, Kim has claimed to have detonated a nuclear device which in and of itself is to defy the international community - regardless of whether the claim is true or not.

I simply cannot believe that the US will sit idly by and merely impose more sanctions. Jimmy Carter might have done that but those days are long gone.

This may be an apocryphal story, but anyway, I heard that several years ago Russia invite Kim on a grand tour of the eastern SSRs. Kim refuses to fly, so a special luxury train was commissioned for his private use.

The story is true. It took about a week to travel from Pyongyang to Moscow.

[theloniusfleabag]

Dear August1991,

, I can see how he would view a bomb in an American city as increasing his bargaining power and setting one off would prove that his threat is credible.

That would be an act of war, and a nuclear war at that. Not much to bargain about after that.

I simply cannot believe that the US will sit idly by and merely impose more sanctions. Jimmy Carter might have done that but those days are long gone.

The US hasn't much choice. What are the real options? Embargoing the country ala Cuba? It seems that is their next proposal, but it didn't really work there either. They may pressure China to intervene, because China would be about the only one Kim may fear. China might be the only country capable of armed intervention without inflaming the region. However, getting them to leave again might be more difficult. China would have to actually wish to see the South and the North united and not under their control. At this point in time, the US cannot feasibly invade and effect 'regime change', but a coalition might, provided it was made up of primarily non-asian countries.

[theloniusfleabag]

A couple of questions occured to me...

From whom does the DPRK feel threatened?

What do they hope to gain versus their losses?

As to the first one, the USA...

from...

http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm

Pyongyang, October 6 (KCNA) -- U.S. President Bush in a speech as regards the lapse of five years since the "September 11 incident" described "anti-terrorism war" as "a battle for civilization" and "duty of the U.S." This reflects the U.S. criminal intention to escalate the "anti-terrorism war" worldwide, observes Rodong Sinmun Friday in a signed article. The "anti-terrorism war" fought by the U.S. for the past five years was an escalation of war of aggression and state-sponsored terrorism to eliminate anti-imperialist independent countries from the world, the article says, and goes on:

Anti-imperialist independent countries have been targets of the U.S. "war on terrorism."

As to what they hope to gain, I expect it is a 'de-listing' from the 'axis of evil'. NK has been pushing for bilateral talks with the US, while ignoring the six party talks with their neighbours. I believe that they are pushing for a 'mutual non-aggression pact' with the US, whom they see as the biggest threat, but also the biggest source of credibility. Kim Jong-Il wants fame, (or infamy) and he seems to think that his picture in the post office as '#1 most wanted' is fame.

If Kim's favourite movies actually are Rambo and Friday the 13th, he seems to be acting out the fantasy, that of being 'tough and alone'.

[MasteroftheGods]

I have think I know the "best" solution for the time being. It is simple - give his what ever he wants, as well as a seat in the security council.

It may sound like we are encouraging this kind of behaviour but becaues no one else will disarm as a jesture of good will, then the only way to stop us from destroying...well, everything, is to just give in and try to appease the man in anyway possible, it worked with the USSR.

Kim Jong-li is a lunitic, and does anyone think that given the chance Adolf Hitler would have thought twice about using the nuke? Hardly, he would have rather killed each and every person on earth then accept defeat, and if he had the nuke he would have without a second thought.

We are looking at a country that has very little econmic power (bankrupt) has an extremly powerful military and a nut job as a leader. Sounds like Per-WWII Germany, accept Germany was economicly powerful then and had much more to lose then south Korea.

So we have an insane, paranoid dictator, a country in econmic disarray, with one of the most powerful militaries in the world, which posses nuclear capibilities and with very little (if anything) to lose.

This does not sound good.

The problem is if we assassinate this monster of a dictator one of his friends within the oligarchy will be furious with the international community, and lets face it there parinoid enough as it is. It's more then likely it would set them off.

Well, if anyone needs me I will be hiding in the woods in my cave with a twelve gage, a lot of food and a laptop so I can keep up with where the bombs are headed.

And to see what is in store for us (make sure your computers sound is on) and go to http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ynu7lpkTkGM

[bradco]

a few thouhts....

Its pretty much impossible to intervene in North Korea now. If this nut is going down I truly believe he will fire his bomb off at someone (probably Seoul). What needs to be done is to ensure that he can not spread these weapons or weapons plans/technology to non-state actors who may be able to use them via unconventional means (not with a missile). Or for that matter make sure he cant use them via unconventional means. Blockade the country and search every ship. I was told Bush called for this today and I have to say I actually agree with him on something. Sanctions really arent going to accomplish much. They wont hurt the leadership and the leadership doesnt care whatsoever if the people are hurt.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/10/1...orea/index.html

Bush arguing that direct talks cant occur is ridiculous. When nuclear weapons are involved talking is good whether you convince the other guy to give up his weapons or not. If Russians and Americans never talked during the Cold War things may have ended up a lot differently. Its time to realize that this nutjob just joined the big boys club whether we like it or not.

Although Id prefer that North Korea didnt have nuclear weapons (obviously) I dont exactly blame them. If you were publicly insulted by another world leader then placed under the "axis of evil" wouldnt you be getting a little worried (especially with another member of the axis being invaded). Didnt North Korea remove themselves from the NPT (which they have the legal right to do) in retaliation for being placed in the "axis of evil"? Correct me on this if Im wrong. The US policy towards this nutjob pretty much forced his hand and then the US failed in talks to stop him. I think the ball is now clearly in Chinas court to see what they can do. Itll be interesting if China takes this as the opportunity to assert itself in the SC and hammer out a strong resolution (emergency SC meeting was today). If China does so we could really see a drastic change in geo-politics.

"I have think I know the "best" solution for the time being. It is simple - give his what ever he wants, as well as a seat in the security council."

Not too much appeasement or he may get a little to much confidence. You still have to play tough but stop short of actual invasion. When you mention Hitler I cant help but think of how appeasement ended up in that case. I might be joining you hiding out in the caves soon especially depending on what happens with Iran now. The failure to stop North Korea is going to play a big part in what happens with Iran. Not wanting to continue a precedant of allowing these regimes to arm is going to result in tough action against Iran in my opinion.

[August1991]

Although Id prefer that North Korea didnt have nuclear weapons (obviously) I dont exactly blame them. If you were publicly insulted by another world leader then placed under the "axis of evil" wouldnt you be getting a little worried (especially with another member of the axis being invaded).

Are you a fool? Have you ever discussed life with a Hell's Angel? What world do you live in? Did you vote Liberal? PQ?

I prefer a civilized French Canadian world but I'll admit that Parizeau can speak of "lobsters" because of civilized English Canadians. And we Canadians can do as we do because of our neighbourly, civilized, democratic, strong Americans.

But then, Canadians have historically responded faster than Americans to protect civilized debate.

A strict sanctions regime on North Korea will be tantamount to an act of war, a North Korean official stationed in Beijing told Yonhap news agency on Wednesday.

"If all out sanctions are implemented, we will take it as a declaration of war," the official said when asked about possible U.N. Security Council sanctions in response to the North's reported nuclear test on Monday.

Yonhap did not identify the official.

China and Russia, which both border North Korea, met other veto-holding members of the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday to discuss a range of sanctions proposed by the United States and Japan to pressure Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear programme.

"The more they press us, the stronger our response will be," the official said.

Reuters

Act of war?

[Remiel]

Well, economic warfare. And if they can't respond with economic warfare, obviously they are going to look to military warfare. Not exactly a great leap of logic.

[theloniusfleabag]

Dear August1991,

Act of war?

This is all playing out as somewhat similar to the lead up to WWII...'Imperialist Japan' had their assests frozen in the US, and trade was cut off, leaving no (self-evident) alternative for Japan but war with the US. Japan had offered peace in the Pacific if they were left to have a free hand in China, a deal that was certainly not going to be accepted. While awaiting an answer, they set sail for Pearl Harbour.

[bradco]

QUOTE(bradco @ Oct 11 2006, 03:10 AM)

Although Id prefer that North Korea didnt have nuclear weapons (obviously) I dont exactly blame them. If you were publicly insulted by another world leader then placed under the "axis of evil" wouldnt you be getting a little worried (especially with another member of the axis being invaded).

August1991

Are you a fool? Have you ever discussed life with a Hell's Angel? What world do you live in? Did you vote Liberal? PQ?

I prefer a civilized French Canadian world but I'll admit that Parizeau can speak of "lobsters" because of civilized English Canadians. And we Canadians can do as we do because of our neighbourly, civilized, democratic, strong Americans.

But then, Canadians have historically responded faster than Americans to protect civilized debate.

I honestly have no idea what your comment means. Do you actually think North Korea does not have legitimate security concerns? All nations have security concerns. Just because we dont like the guy or his regime doesnt mean he doesnt have the right to be concerned about his own life and regime. Im just saying what he did was a fairly rational act considering the security threats he faced. If I was a brutal dictator in his shoes Id probably do the same thing. Thats not an endoresment of what he did, his regime or anything like that. Its only a realization that he was acting towards what he considered to be a legitmate threat to his security. Seeing that Im an IR major with a specialization in security studies I always like to consider the actions of even our enemies and understand why they do what they do. In this case our actions towards North Korea played a large role in motivating him to do what he did.

[Riverwind]

Im just saying what he did was a fairly rational act considering the security threats he faced. If I was a brutal dictator in his shoes Id probably do the same thing. Thats not an endoresment of what he did, his regime or anything like that. Its only a realization that he was acting towards what he considered to be a legitimate threat to his security

I don't understand why all of the war mongers seem to have zero understanding of human psychology. They claim a right to do and say anything they want and bluster with outrage when the target of their aggression reacts in a perfectly rational and predictable way. You see the same story repeating in Iran - If Iran eventually gets nukes it will be a direct consequence of the invasion of Iraq. Without that provocation it is quite likely that Iran would have followed a path similar to China where gradual reforms lead to a peaceful engagement with the rest of the world. What happens now is anyone's guess.

[Liam]

Interesting article:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15175633/site/newsweek/

[M.Dancer]

- If Iran eventually gets nukes it will be a direct consequence of the invasion of Iraq.

Pretty prescient those Persians......starting a nuclear programme years before the invasion, so they would have them as a consequence of the invasion.

[sharkman]

Although Id prefer that North Korea didnt have nuclear weapons (obviously) I dont exactly blame them. If you were publicly insulted by another world leader then placed under the "axis of evil" wouldnt you be getting a little worried (especially with another member of the axis being invaded).

I mentioned in a related post the reaction of Bush critics to blame Bush for causing NK's thirst for nuclear weapons, by placing Kim Jong among the axis of evil, and here we have one such comment.

Never mind that kimmie(with apologies to you know who, but he's so short and feminine!) has been thirsting for the Nuclear Whiskey since the early 90's, well before the axis of evil moniker. Using the 'name calling pushed him into it' logic, better get ready for WWIII. Recently Chavez gave a speech at the UN, where, no doubt to titters in the audience, he repeatedly called Bush THE DEVIL!! I'm sure Bush is readying his response, and all those who follow this logic will understand the tactical strikes that follow.

[mcqueen625]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15190745/

Looks like they finally did it.

How do you think the U.S. will respond?

It just goes to show how useless the U.N. really is! They have been playing that age old game with North Korea, Iraq, Iran for years. You know the one, Cross this line and......you'll be sorry. they cross the line so the line gets moved, and out goes another warning, Cross this line, and .......... It's just like a child when they are testing thier limits. Unfortunately the U.N. has shown itself to be an absolutely useless in reigning in rogue nations. They are so afraid of being politically incorrect and afraid of teh possiblility of offending one of there straw dictators.

If this is the example of what the U.N. has come to then George W. Bush is right, it has become redundant and should be disbanded. I know for sure that Canada should not only cease being a member of the U.N. but we should also stop funnelling our foreign aid through the U.N. and the World Bank, for several reason the most prominent reason is that Canada is not getting any credit on the ground for the donations we are making, and neither of these organizations are accountable for where the money is being spent, and they are not obliged to provide any accountability for those funds. Who knows maybe Canada's money was used to purchase the Mercedes, Koffi's son purchased and smashed up.

[Chrissy1979]

Never mind that kimmie(with apologies to you know who, but he's so short and feminine!)

You mean they're not the same person?

[bradco]

Although Id prefer that North Korea didnt have nuclear weapons (obviously) I dont exactly blame them. If you were publicly insulted by another world leader then placed under the "axis of evil" wouldnt you be getting a little worried (especially with another member of the axis being invaded).

I mentioned in a related post the reaction of Bush critics to blame Bush for causing NK's thirst for nuclear weapons, by placing Kim Jong among the axis of evil, and here we have one such comment.

Never mind that kimmie(with apologies to you know who, but he's so short and feminine!) has been thirsting for the Nuclear Whiskey since the early 90's, well before the axis of evil moniker. Using the 'name calling pushed him into it' logic, better get ready for WWIII. Recently Chavez gave a speech at the UN, where, no doubt to titters in the audience, he repeatedly called Bush THE DEVIL!! I'm sure Bush is readying his response, and all those who follow this logic will understand the tactical strikes that follow.

Theres a difference between starting the program and actually devloping the bomb. He had to start the program to get respect and heard around the world. He needed some sort of bargaining chip with the west. Once he realized that the bargaining chip was only going to get him bombed he decides to go all the way so they cant bomb him.

Why did NK get a nuclear weapon. Was it just another failure of the Bush admnistrations foreign policy? Or is it because there is some nutty little guy with hair too big for his body across the Pacific? My guess is the answer is probably somewhere in the middle. Geroge would have you believe it was all that nutjob in North Korea who defies internaional consensus ('cause BUsh would never do that).

[sharkman]

Never mind that kimmie(with apologies to you know who, but he's so short and feminine!)

You mean they're not the same person?

Actually, there's a kimmi who frequents this forum and I didn't want to slight her. Kimmy? Kimmie? Can't remember her spelling, but I'm sure she wouldn't mind.

[jdobbin]

It just goes to show how useless the U.N. really is! They have been playing that age old game with North Korea, Iraq, Iran for years. You know the one, Cross this line and......you'll be sorry. they cross the line so the line gets moved, and out goes another warning, Cross this line, and .......... It's just like a child when they are testing thier limits. Unfortunately the U.N. has shown itself to be an absolutely useless in reigning in rogue nations. They are so afraid of being politically incorrect and afraid of teh possiblility of offending one of there straw dictators.

If this is the example of what the U.N. has come to then George W. Bush is right, it has become redundant and should be disbanded. I know for sure that Canada should not only cease being a member of the U.N. but we should also stop funnelling our foreign aid through the U.N. and the World Bank, for several reason the most prominent reason is that Canada is not getting any credit on the ground for the donations we are making, and neither of these organizations are accountable for where the money is being spent, and they are not obliged to provide any accountability for those funds. Who knows maybe Canada's money was used to purchase the Mercedes, Koffi's son purchased and smashed up.

Harper is in power now. Why not ask him to pull Canada out of the U.N.?

[Black Dog]

North Korea to Close Reactor

BEIJING, Tuesday, Feb. 13 — North Korea agreed today to close its main nuclear reactor in exchange for a package of food, fuel and other aid from the United States, China, South Korea and Russia. The breakthrough, announced by the Chinese government after intense negotiations, came four months after North Korea tested a nuclear bomb.

The partner nations agreed to provide roughly $400 million in various kinds of aid in return for the North starting a permanent disabling of its nuclear facilities and allowing inspectors into the country.

Perhaps equally important, the United States and Japan agreed to discuss normalizing relations with Pyongyang. The United States will begin the process of removing North Korea from its designation as a terror-sponsoring state and also on ending U.S. trade and financial sanctions.

Bribery works.

[Black Dog]

U.S. Had Doubts on North Korean Uranium Drive

Last October, the North Koreans tested their first nuclear device, the fruition of decades of work to make a weapon out of plutonium.

For nearly five years, though, the Bush administration, based on intelligence estimates, has accused North Korea of also pursuing a secret, parallel path to a bomb, using enriched uranium. That accusation, first leveled in the fall of 2002, resulted in the rupture of an already tense relationship: The United States cut off oil supplies, and the North Koreans responded by throwing out international inspectors, building up their plutonium arsenal and, ultimately, producing that first plutonium bomb.

But now, American intelligence officials are publicly softening their position, admitting to doubts about how much progress the uranium enrichment program has actually made. The result has been new questions about the Bush administration’s decision to confront North Korea in 2002.

“The question now is whether we would be in the position of having to get the North Koreans to give up a sizable arsenal if this had been handled differently,” a senior administration official said this week.

Read the whole thing. As with Iraq, the U.S spun the intelligence into worst case scenarios and used those scenarios to drive their policy. In the former, that led to the ongoing disaster in Iraq, in the latter it led to North Korea aquiring weapons faster than they may have had a different approach been used. This is worth keeping in mind in the face of all the fearmongering about the Iranian threat.