Super Weekend

[myata]

Ignatief or Rae for me means automatic Green Party vote for as long as they're in the offce. I sincerely hope that the two "second echelone" contenders - Kennedy & Dion would find some kind of a compromise solution to combine their votes and break ahead of the leading pair. It's quite funny though how they nearly 100% complementary to two each other - if only there was a way to "fuse" them together, if not in one individual, then at least in the post of Liberal leader?

[jdobbin]

We can form one in a hurry after our independence, rest assured. We don't need a militia to seperate, we can simply do it through democratic process in the absense of violence.

Although we have some separatists in this forum, I don't think that separatists are anywhere organized to even run a full slate of credible candidates in an election in Alberta. And given that the population increases at 100,000 a year, I wonder how many of the newcomers are willing to split with Canada.

A Conservative province rarely doesn't radical things.

[August1991]

Egghead Iggy is a Trudeau wannabe. His entire concept of a carbon tax makes a lot of sense to people in Quebec and Ontario which is where a whole herd of delegates come from. Therefore the carbon tax pundits have an edge. Personally I like the idea of Iggy calling the ball because that would definitely push Alberta over the edge into a sovereignty question. NEP2 would have the effect of NEP1 which had devasting effects for Alberta, and everybody in the province knows it.

Hey, just a second here.

The NEP created a made-in-Canada oil price that was lower than the world price and also separated the Canadian oil market from the outside world. Consumers (in Quebec and Ontario) got to buy cheap gasoline.

A carbon tax would have for effect to raise the price of oil in Canada above the world price. Consumers (in Quebec and Ontario) would pay more for their gasoline.

The NEP and a carbon tax are very different animals.

[BubberMiley]

It might be wise to establish a credible democracy first. Mexico went for years with a one-party system, and look where that led them.

[geoffrey]

Egghead Iggy is a Trudeau wannabe. His entire concept of a carbon tax makes a lot of sense to people in Quebec and Ontario which is where a whole herd of delegates come from. Therefore the carbon tax pundits have an edge. Personally I like the idea of Iggy calling the ball because that would definitely push Alberta over the edge into a sovereignty question. NEP2 would have the effect of NEP1 which had devasting effects for Alberta, and everybody in the province knows it.

Hey, just a second here.

The NEP created a made-in-Canada oil price that was lower than the world price and also separated the Canadian oil market from the outside world. Consumers (in Quebec and Ontario) got to buy cheap gasoline.

A carbon tax would have for effect to raise the price of oil in Canada above the world price. Consumers (in Quebec and Ontario) would pay more for their gasoline.

The NEP and a carbon tax are very different animals.

But very similar animals in that they attack Alberta pollution (we've never had an air advisory out here) while leaving the real polluting industry in southern Ontario and Quebec without consequence. Your not going to be allow to breathe without being taxed, but pumping carcinogens into the air is ok. Real practical Iggy, real practical.

It's wealth redistribution from Alberta to Ontario and Quebec. Alberta pays Canada's pollution price while Quebec and Ontario don't pay anything for their much worse contributions to the death and life altering pollution, instead of some CO2.

The cost on health care of manufacturing in Ontario is massive, statistics are alarming at the rate that Southern Ontario kids are getting asthma. It's now unusual to not have it there. Cancer is skyrocketing across Canada. And instead, we are worried about what Europe will think of us if we don't put limits on CO2 emissions from oil and gas.

[Biblio Bibuli]

If Iggy doesn't win (over 33% of the vote is my prediction), I'll eat a wide-brimmed Mountie Stetson for breakfast.

Iggy's support is increasing throughout the day according to the ticker.

He's at 30.8% now and Rae has replaced Dion in 2nd place with 18.1% to Dion's 18%. Kennedy is doing better than I expected at 13.2%

Just a couple of percentage points more and we're in the money.

I thought our bet that Iggy would secure over 33% of delegates was lost. But chatting with John Ivison this morning he told me that when ex-officio members (current and former MPs and senators) and Aboriginal delegates are added, it is likely that Iggy's numbers will rise to above 35%.

We're in the money... we're in the money ... tra la la la la ... we're in the money!

[BubberMiley]

We don't need a militia to seperate, we can simply do it through democratic process in the absense of violence.

What a Canadian thing to say.

[Big Blue Machine]

I think Iggy will climax then fade because the others will start a Anybody But Iggy ticket. I fear that if Kennedy wins, the media will side with him. If Rae wins, Quebec will side with him more and Ontario will side with Harper.

[Biblio Bibuli]

I think Iggy will climax then fade because the others will start a Anybody But Iggy ticket.

Put your money where your mouth is!

I was never so sure of ANYTHING as I am of the fact that Michael Ignatieff will be the next leader of the Liberals. So go ahead .... name your odds!

[August1991]

The question now is whether we have the federal Liberal 1968 convention that saw Trudeau come first on every ballot despite even Judy Lamarsh trying to "stop that bastard".

Or, do we have the Ontario Liberals 1996 convention and the federal PC 1976 convention where a third or even fourth placed finish on the first ballot wound up becoming the final victor because the top-tier winners had "limited growth".

[Ricki Bobbi]

The question now is whether we have the federal Liberal 1968 convention that saw Trudeau come first on every ballot despite even Judy Lamarsh trying to "stop that bastard".

Or, do we have the Ontario Liberals 1996 convention and the federal PC 1976 convention where a third or even fourth placed finish on the first ballot wound up becoming the final victor because the top-tier winners had "limited growth".

Paul Wells said it best.

Basically Iggy isn't going to be stopped on the convention floor the way things stand now.

In order for anybody to stop Iggy one of the three tier-two candidates (Rae/Dion/Kennedy) needs to step aside and back one of the other two because they feel it is that important that Iggy be stopped. Doing so would probably be enough to stop Iggy and make whoever stepped aside the front runner to be the next, next leader five or six years down the road.

Rae's a little too old for that. Wouldn't want to lay the groundwork for a run in his mid 60's.

So it's either Kennedy or Dion. *Maybe* Kennedy but that would require a lot of forward thinking.

[gc1765]

In order for anybody to stop Iggy one of the three tier-two candidates (Rae/Dion/Kennedy) needs to step aside and back one of the other two because they feel it is that important that Iggy be stopped. Doing so would probably be enough to stop Iggy and make whoever stepped aside the front runner to be the next, next leader five or six years down the road.

Rae's a little too old for that. Wouldn't want to lay the groundwork for a run in his mid 60's.

So it's either Kennedy or Dion. *Maybe* Kennedy but that would require a lot of forward thinking.

Just because Kennedy or Dion drop out and back someone other than ignatieff doesn't necessarily mean that their delegates will follow suit.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Just because Kennedy or Dion drop out and back someone other than ignatieff doesn't necessarily mean that their delegates will follow suit.

Master of the obvious, eh?

If one of the three don't back off to kickstart an ABIggy movement, Ignatieff has it in the bag.

[gc1765]

Just because Kennedy or Dion drop out and back someone other than ignatieff doesn't necessarily mean that their delegates will follow suit.

Master of the obvious, eh?

If one of the three don't back off to kickstart an ABIggy movement, Ignatieff has it in the bag.

Is it possible for you to have an intelligent debate without resorting to belittling sarcasm?

The question is, how much of an impact will the support of one candidate (eg kennedy) for another have? Is it enough to convince enough delegates not to vote for iggy?

[August1991]

The question is, how much of an impact will the support of one candidate (eg kennedy) for another have? Is it enough to convince enough delegates not to vote for iggy?

They're referring to Kennedy as a "kingmaker" and I can understand why. Arguably, Rae and Dion are also potential kingmakers but neither will quit now.

If Kennedy realizes that the Liberal Party is not going to select him leader (and they won't) and if Kennedy doesn't want to see Ignatieff as leader (dunno what Kennedy thinks of Ignatieff), then I can see him going to either Rae or Dion.

Now, the Liberal Party at least since Laurier has prided itself on being the bridge between English and French Canada. If Kennedy went to Dion, it would be in keeping with that tradition. The two complement each other and Kennedy - only 46 - would be guaranteed of a senior position in a Dion government.

Incidentally, Mitchell Sharp did something like that in 1968 when he dropped out to support Trudeau.

[geoffrey]

Dion and Rae are both weaker in the most important province, being Ontario. Kennedy isn't a lost cause yet.

The Liberals have much more to lose by electing Rae (extremely unpopular in Ontario) or Dion (not exactly #1 in Ontario) then the few seats in Quebec.

Those Quebec seats are pretty solidly Liberal. If Quebecois in Quebec City can vote for Harper, then I can't see why mostly anglophone Montrealers can't vote for Kennedy? I can definitely see the entire 905 voting CPC if Rae is elected though.

[gc1765]

According to CBC, only Iggy, Rae, Dion & Kennedy will be at the convention. There must have been some sort of cutoff, but I'm not sure what the cutoff is.

EDIT: maybe not...I thought cbc said only 4 were going to the convention, but maybe they meant only 4 have a realistic chance at the convention?

[watching&waiting]

It still is anybodies race, as when all is said and done any of the top 4 could throw their support behind any of the front runners and if all do as requested of them, it would chnge the optics very quickly. The only thing that would put this to a crowning would be if any of the front runners thru their support to Iggy. Then it would be all over but the crowning. Volpe would be smart to just release his supporters, as anyone he would throw his support to, would not want the optics of that pulling them down. Finlay will wait until the end to throw her support and that will make a difference with the female vote even though her numbers are small.

[Biblio Bibuli]

I think Iggy will climax then fade because the others will start a Anybody But Iggy ticket.

Put your money where your mouth is!

After reading Barbara Yaffe's article today where she makes her pick ... all I can say is ... YOU TOO BABS, PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS!

Here are some excerpts:

"Results from the "super weekend" of voting for Liberal delegates to next month's leadership convention point to a likely win for veteran Stephane Dion.

Ignatieff is the darling of the party establishment, much as one-time leadership aspirant Kim Campbell was of Tory backroomers in her day; and we all know how that story ended. Any way you look at it, Ignatieff lacks the majority result he'd need to snare the prize after the initial round of voting. The political newcomer is destined to be overtaken in white-knuckle balloting. Ignatieff has run a mediocre campaign. Most damaging has been his quasi support for the Iraq war and the Afghan offensive.

Dion can claim credible support in his home province. He's unburdened by any ideological tag. Dion possesses a longer, assuring record, as a federal Liberal in good standing, than any of his three main competitors.

It's unclear at this point how many ballots it will take the new leader to taste victory. What is clear is that the new leader will be Stephane Dion."

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/columni...82-4ca9d8d5456b

[Biblio Bibuli]

After reading Barbara Yaffe's article today where she makes her pick ... all I can say is ... YOU TOO BABS, PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS!

Here are some excerpts:

It's unclear at this point how many ballots it will take the new leader to taste victory. What is clear is that the new leader will be Stephane Dion."

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/columni...82-4ca9d8d5456b

Yaffe is a very respected columnist around here, and I can well imagine that the letters to the editor section in tomorow's Vancouver Sun will be full of replies to her daring "sure thing" prediction.

The odds on Dion are dropping in Vancouver bookie joints as we speak!

[Biblio Bibuli]

Yaffe is a very respected columnist around here

With Yaffe's bold prediction weighing on my mind I couldn't sleep a wink last night. Complaining about it to Andrew Coyne this morning he was very non-committal at first, saying:

"A great many bold, definitive statements have been made in the wake of last weekend's Liberal leadership vote, so let me add a bold, definitive statement of my own: Nobody knows. Nobody knows how this thing will play out. Are you kidding? This is game theory with eight players."

Feeling a little edgy from a sleepless night, I just told him to cut the crap and spill out who he's betting on. Sensing that I meant it, I suppose, he opened up, saying:

"Suppose Scott Brison throws his support to Mr. Ignatieff. It looks good for Mr. Ignatieff, he's got the momentum - until Ken Dryden crosses over to to Stephane Dion's camp. That puts Mr. Dion out in front of Mr. Kennedy, who follows Mr. Dryden's suit, vaulting Mr. Dion ahead of Mr. Rae, who makes the final, fateful decision ..."

When I asked him if that is the worst case scenario for Mr. Ignatieff, he just winked at me, and hung up.

Iggy's got it in the bag ... Iggy's got it in the bag ... tra la la la la la la ... Iggy's got it in the bag ... ZZZZ.

[Biblio Bibuli]

Complaining about it to Andrew Coyne this morning ...

Or I read it in my #1 daily.

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/is...4a-627edbf7b549

I'm not certain.

[geoffrey]

Complaining about it to Andrew Coyne this morning ...

Or I read it in my #1 daily.

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/is...4a-627edbf7b549

I'm not certain.

When you start confusing the NP with reality...

Or Andrew Coyne with reality... that's even worse.

[Biblio Bibuli]

After reading Barbara Yaffe's article today where she makes her pick ... all I can say is ... YOU TOO BABS, PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS!

Here are some excerpts:

It's unclear at this point how many ballots it will take the new leader to taste victory. What is clear is that the new leader will be Stephane Dion."

In Yaffe's article today she is talking about Eddie Goldenberg's new book on Chretien, and the ONLY reason that I can think of why she's doing that is to shill her pick.

Look what she says:

"The book provides fascinating insights from Goldenberg on one of the leading contenders in the Liberal leadership contest, Stephane Dion.

In cabinet, he confides, when Dion spoke "his colleagues put down their coffees, stopped signing correspondence and listened attentively."

"He was recognized by even his fiercest adversaries as the perfect example for those who go into politics for principle, who serve selflessly and who are prepared to take a lot of slings and arrows for doing what they think is right."

Dion's relationship with Chretien was "almost one of father and son." Chretien "had tremendous admiration for his new minister's guts and determination in joining the cabinet in the darkest days, and then in taking on the solidly hostile political class in Quebec and challenging the conventional wisdom there."

I hate to tell you Babs but the only reason his collegues put down their pencils and listened attentively was because his English is horrendous and they were trying to decode what he was saying. And if you think that his "almost father and son" relationship with Chretien will help his chances .... I'd say not!

I generally like Yaffe but she's off of her rocker on this one, IMHO.

[Biblio Bibuli]

I generally like Yaffe but she's off of her rocker on this one, IMHO.

Back in September she wrote this wince-inducing boner:

"Ignatieff is a long shot ... he should get himself a good set of worry beads, pronto."

Ask Warren Kinsella if you don't believe me.