Super Weekend

[jdobbin]

Dion might be about to slip into fourth place.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/01102006/2/nati...ird-erupts.html

[sharkman]

So, it looks like Iggy might take it. I'll be very interested how he gets treated in our media.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Dion might be about to slip into fourth place.

Dion *has* slipped into fourth.

Ignatieff - 915 - 30%

Rae - 584 - 19.1%

Kennedy - 532 - 17.4%

Dion - 498 - 16.3%

About 2/3rds of the meetings have reported.

OMG imagine if Kennedy could slip into second while winning less than 10 delegates in Quebec?

[geoffrey]

Kennedy as leader isn't something I've really given any thought about. I don't know anything about the guy.

[August1991]

Dion *has* slipped into fourth.

The game's not over until it's over. Don't count your chickens... [Choose metaphor as appropriate.]

OMG imagine if Kennedy could slip into second while winning less than 10 delegates in Quebec?

This rules him out now but places him well for the future. I understand that Dion is using the line that Kennedy supporters should back Dion now so that an anglo has a chance next time around.

[Kennedy's got seven - count 'em, seven - delegates in Quebec.]

[Ricki Bobbi]

Kennedy is creeping up on Rae and holding his lead over Dion.

Ignatieff - 953 - 30%

Rae - 602 - 18.9%

Kennedy - 557 - 17.5%

Dion - 513 - 16.1%

I understand that Dion is using the line that Kennedy supporters should back Dion now so that an anglo has a chance next time around.

Sounds a little desperate for the fourth place candidate to try and woo delegates committed to the third place candidate.

[geoffrey]

I can't find out what Kennedy stands for, there is nothing about platform on his site, on wiki, anywhere. He's just running on his history/image, which I don't know not being an Ontario Liberal.

Don't see how he can win if no one knows what he stands for.

[gc1765]

I can't find out what Kennedy stands for, there is nothing about platform on his site, on wiki, anywhere. He's just running on his history/image, which I don't know not being an Ontario Liberal.

Don't see how he can win if no one knows what he stands for.

He has a few issues on his website Link (not really a comprehensive platform though)

[Ricki Bobbi]

Latest results are...

Ignatieff - 1205 - 30%

Rae - 788 - 19.6%

Dion - 679 - 16.9%

Kennedy - 673 - 16.7%

Hmmm, so Iggy is the leader.

Any idea who people would rally around if an Anybody But Iggy movement starts?

My gut tells me Kennedy.

Rae has too much baggage to be the anti-Iggy choice.

Dion, hmmm, three straight leaders from Quebec is a bit much even for the Liberals.

[August1991]

My gut tells me Kennedy.

John Crosbie said it best - it is impossible to be PM of Canada unless you speak fluent French. Harper barely passes. Kennedy doesn't. The Liberals will not choose Kennedy.

Looking at these numbers, I wonder whether Ignatieff can salvage enough second votes to get from 30% to 50%. All he needs is about a third from each of the other candidates.

If Ignatieff can't manage that, then Dion will win because he's the default guy.

The other spanner in the machine is how Rae performs over the coming weeks. The Liberals are looking primarily for a winner, someone who can defeat Harper and get them back into power. To do that, they don't need 100% of the population. They just need 40% of the people who turn out to vote (a fact which is acutely apparent to Liberals). Rae - running as a Liberal - may be the kind of politician who can do that.

[gc1765]

My gut tells me Kennedy.

Rae has too much baggage to be the anti-Iggy choice.

Dion, hmmm, three straight leaders from Quebec is a bit much even for the Liberals.

I support kennedy, but unfortunately I still disagree with you. If Dion is the first to go, a lot of his support is from quebec, and quebec does not have a lot of support for kennedy. His support will likely go to rae or iggy (probably due to the french factor). If there is enough 'anyone but iggy', then rae just might win it. Of course, I could be wrong...

[geoffrey]

My gut tells me Kennedy.

Rae has too much baggage to be the anti-Iggy choice.

Dion, hmmm, three straight leaders from Quebec is a bit much even for the Liberals.

I support kennedy, but unfortunately I still disagree with you. If Dion is the first to go, a lot of his support is from quebec, and quebec does not have a lot of support for kennedy. His support will likely go to rae or iggy (probably due to the french factor). If there is enough 'anyone but iggy', then rae just might win it. Of course, I could be wrong...

Rae isn't doing too hot in Ontario, Liberals see that Ontario still dislikes/distrusts Rae and his failed premiership... they won't rally around him.

Where as Kennedy does well everywhere but Quebec/Maritimes. The Liberals could be back in minority power with a few steals from the West. They likely won't lose much more than they have in Quebec. Rae could be extremely costly in non-downtown Toronto, most Ontarians won't touch him with a 60 foot poll... as the results suggest.

I wouldn't be suprised if all of Rae's Ontario delegates are downtown immigrant types. My reason is that , B.C. (immigrant land) is emerging as a very strong Rae province.

[geoffrey]

"We have the know-how and means to be the cleanest country on the planet but in order for Canada to emerge as a clean energy superpower, we must adopt policies that bring industry, consumers and government together, said Kennedy. "A carbon tax would only serve to divide Canada along regional lines and would be counter to driving national consensus on a national issue."

I'd vote for Kennedy if I were a Liberal, the more I read on this guy. His energy plan is first-rate, expand green energy without a carbon tax. Brilliant. He sees what NEP II would do to the country, doesn't want to kill the hen that's laying the golden egg.

His Afghan policy is shaky, but he's not advocating withdrawl which is nice. More humanitarian aid is fine with me, as long as we keep a heavy hand with the Taliban.

I'm a little uncomfortable with his childcare and immigrant success programs, but hey, I'm not a Liberal, I can't be expected to actually want to vote for him in an election.

Just my personal interest is in protection of the energy industry from an Ontario/Quebec raid and I think Kennedy will respect Alberta's position.

How bad is his French really?

[gc1765]

Rae isn't doing too hot in Ontario, Liberals see that Ontario still dislikes/distrusts Rae and his failed premiership... they won't rally around him.

Where as Kennedy does well everywhere but Quebec/Maritimes. The Liberals could be back in minority power with a few steals from the West. They likely won't lose much more than they have in Quebec. Rae could be extremely costly in non-downtown Toronto, most Ontarians won't touch him with a 60 foot poll... as the results suggest.

I wouldn't be suprised if all of Rae's Ontario delegates are downtown immigrant types. My reason is that , B.C. (immigrant land) is emerging as a very strong Rae province.

I think that either kennedy or dion have a pretty good chance at winning the next election (and rae is polling surprisingly well, so he might do better than expected if elected leader). But just because someone has the best chance of winning the election, doesn't mean they will win the leadership.

[geoffrey]

I think that either kennedy or dion have a pretty good chance at winning the next election (and rae is polling surprisingly well, so he might do better than expected if elected leader). But just because someone has the best chance of winning the election, doesn't mean they will win the leadership.

I don't think Dion appeals to English Canada. I could never vote for Chretien II.

So it comes down to what's more important for the Liberals, their Ontario seats, or Quebec seats (or potentially regaining landslide Annie's seat ). That's the choice between Dion and Kennedy if it came down to that.

[gc1765]

So it comes down to what's more important for the Liberals, their Ontario seats, or Quebec seats (or potentially regaining landslide Annie's seat ). That's the choice between Dion and Kennedy if it came down to that.

You're probably right. I actually think kennedy has the best chance of winning the next election. It's too bad that a lot of the delegates won't see it that way though. They'll probably vote for either rae or iggy instead, who don't have as good of chance at winning. But, let's hope I'm wrong...

[geoffrey]

So it comes down to what's more important for the Liberals, their Ontario seats, or Quebec seats (or potentially regaining landslide Annie's seat ). That's the choice between Dion and Kennedy if it came down to that.

You're probably right. I actually think kennedy has the best chance of winning the next election. It's too bad that a lot of the delegates won't see it that way though. They'll probably vote for either rae or iggy instead, who don't have as good of chance at winning. But, let's hope I'm wrong...

I honestly think a Rae led party will mean an Conservative majority almost for sure. Outside 416 no one will vote for Rae.

[Ricki Bobbi]

I honestly think a Rae led party will mean an Conservative majority almost for sure. Outside 416 no one will vote for Rae.

While I wish you are right I'm not sure.

Seems like Rae would attract a lot of NDP supporters especially in Ontario and BC.

Rae would also avoid a lot of the mistakes on the campaign trail that Kennedy and Iggy would make.

[Charles Anthony]

Seems like Rae would attract a lot of NDP supporters especially in Ontario and BC.

I agree. That is a real possibility. People outside of Ontario do not care about what Rae did in Ontario. Also, people can be forgiving.

Has anybody considered how a Rae/Ignatieff or Ignatieff/Rae team could challenge the Conservatives?

Regardless of who wins the leadership, the two might likely continue in federal politics a la Cretino-Martino style.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Has anybody considered how a Rae/Ignatieff or Ignatieff/Rae team could challenge the Conservatives?

Regardless of who wins the leadership, the two might likely continue in federal politics a la Cretino-Martino style.

No way for exactly how Chretien/Martin turns out.

Whoever wins won't want the other to be seen as a leader in waiting. Besides the new leader has to be able to commit through the end of the decade. Don't really think either of them want to wait that long to take another crack at leadership.

[Charles Anthony]

Whoever wins won't want the other to be seen as a leader in waiting.

So what? Even if the new leader tries to pull a Copps-Valeri dirty game, the loser still has the opportunity to stay in their party.

Don't really think either of them want to wait that long to take another crack at leadership.

Are you kidding?

What do you think Chretien did?

What do you think Martin did?

They all waited extensively long periods of time for power. They also put up a front to the public.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Egghead Iggy is a Trudeau wannabe. His entire concept of a carbon tax makes a lot of sense to people in Quebec and Ontario which is where a whole herd of delegates come from. Therefore the carbon tax pundits have an edge. Personally I like the idea of Iggy calling the ball because that would definitely push Alberta over the edge into a sovereignty question. NEP2 would have the effect of NEP1 which had devasting effects for Alberta, and everybody in the province knows it. So bring it on folks, because that is my ticket outa here baby!

[geoffrey]

Egghead Iggy is a Trudeau wannabe. His entire concept of a carbon tax makes a lot of sense to people in Quebec and Ontario which is where a whole herd of delegates come from. Therefore the carbon tax pundits have an edge. Personally I like the idea of Iggy calling the ball because that would definitely push Alberta over the edge into a sovereignty question. NEP2 would have the effect of NEP1 which had devasting effects for Alberta, and everybody in the province knows it. So bring it on folks, because that is my ticket outa here baby!

Some truth in that. Just hope Canada realises that a weaker Alberta pretty much destroys the rest of the country. 4 to 5 times per capita more than anyone else is what we contribute, I'd be very hesitant to ask for more if I were a Liberal leader.

Then again, destroying Alberta is the favourite pastime of Quebec, so we'll see.

[BubberMiley]

But Alberta doesn't even have a militia. You can't have independence without a militia.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

But Alberta doesn't even have a militia. You can't have independence without a militia.

We can form one in a hurry after our independence, rest assured. We don't need a militia to seperate, we can simply do it through democratic process in the absense of violence.