Canadian Political Polls

jbg · October 14, 2007

Judging the political acumen of Stephane Dion at this point in time can only lead to one answer.
Based on polls reflecting the Canadian public's reaction to the turmoil in the Liberal ranks it looks like the Conservatives are heading for a majority.

If that's the case, how does Harper manage to get to the polls before 10/19/2009?

sharkman · October 14, 2007

The next big thing will be the blame game. I mean if circumstances play out to an election call, all the parties will blame each oth..err, all the parties will blame the Tories for it in an attempt to suck up to the voting public. In truth, Dion is to blame for being so incompetent that a left leaning country like Canada can only muster 28% in a poll. You know its pretty bad when that happens, only hard lefties would rather have rank incompetence (like the kind which lost track of a billion dollars in the Human Resources Ministry and spent 2 billion on a gun registry that all of the criminals ignore) than a party that can actually govern.

What say you, Herr Doktor Dobbin, can the Liberal party save itself by removing its head in time?

jbg · October 14, 2007

The next big thing will be the blame game. I mean if circumstances play out to an election call, all the parties will blame each oth..err, all the parties will blame the Tories for it in an attempt to suck up to the voting public.

I don't know that the Canadians would mind an election call now. Certainly, in light of the bi-election results, an election is needed since the government no longer reflects the "lay of the land". That, in a Parliamentary system, is the recipe for a necessary election. It certainly does not mirror Chretien's election every 40 months, at times when either his numbers were good or the right was about to unite.

In truth, Dion is to blame for being so incompetent that a left leaning country like Canada can only muster 28% in a poll.

Don't you, in fairness, need to add the NDP to the "left" numbers, and at least one-thhird of the Bloc?

You know its pretty bad when that happens, only hard lefties would rather have rank incompetence (like the kind which lost track of a billion dollars in the Human Resources Ministry and spent 2 billion on a gun registry that all of the criminals ignore) than a party that can actually govern.

If I were Harper, I'd run this as a "competence and good government" campaign. The contrast with the post-1996 period of the Liberal regime is stark.

Michael Bluth · October 14, 2007

If that's the case, how does Harper manage to get to the polls before 10/19/2009?

Dion's lack of political acumen.

He may not think he can win an election but he doesn't know how he can avoid one without seriously wounding his leadership.

old_bold&cold · October 14, 2007

Dion's lack of political acumen.
He may not think he can win an election but he doesn't know how he can avoid one without seriously wounding his leadership.

Dion's lack of leadership skills, and ability, aside, one would think that he knows that as soon as he loses an election he is done, as leader of the party. Now, I can see where that might be something he would be willing to do, as even he must see that his floundering around, is costing his party big time. Does he want to be replaced as leader of the liberal party? By now I think he would have rather stayed on the side lines where his acedemic powers were better serving the party.

Just for arguments sake, could he run an election on the idea that as soon as it was over he would resign as leader, and then let IGGY do most of the electioneering? Could something like that actually happen, and would it make a difference, or just take out Iggy as the next possible leader. Forgive my twisted mind on this one.

sharkman · October 14, 2007

I don't know that the Canadians would mind an election call now. Certainly, in light of the bi-election results, an election is needed since the government no longer reflects the "lay of the land". That, in a Parliamentary system, is the recipe for a necessary election. It certainly does not mirror Chretien's election every 40 months, at times when either his numbers were good or the right was about to unite.
Don't you, in fairness, need to add the NDP to the "left" numbers, and at least one-thhird of the Bloc?

If I were Harper, I'd run this as a "competence and good government" campaign. The contrast with the post-1996 period of the Liberal regime is stark.

Good points, it's been a pretty long run for a minority government and the blame game may backfire. As far as the NDP goes, I was considering them to be socialists, but I suppose they could be called far lefties too.

Michael Bluth · October 14, 2007

Good points, it's been a pretty long run for a minority government and the blame game may backfire. As far as the NDP goes, I was considering them to be socialists, but I suppose they could be called far lefties too.

Only three minorities have lasted longer.

Surpassing the two longest lasting minorities would require this Government to go past the fixed election date. Early election won't be an issue. The Liberals tried that in 2006 and it didn't work so well.

I think if you amended your earlier statement to something along the lines of Canada being a centre-left country and the only centre-left party being able to muster 28% support being pretty weak would be an accurate description.

jbg · October 14, 2007

Good points, it's been a pretty long run for a minority government and the blame game may backfire. As far as the NDP goes, I was considering them to be socialists, but I suppose they could be called far lefties too.

As someone who'd likely be a 'dipper if Canadian, I'd consider it a leftie party.

jdobbin · October 15, 2007

CP Decima Press on Alberta.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/west_poll_angry_alta

And despite multibillion-dollar budget surpluses and a provincewide construction boom to try to accommodate the teeming inflow of newcomers:
-24 per cent said the post-secondary education has worsened.

-28 per cent said grade-school education has deteriorated.

-51 per cent said their community has not improved or, in some cases, even worsened.

-70 per cent said there has been no improvement in their family's health and well-being.

The survey, conducted Sept. 10-12, is considered accurate within 2.6 percentage points 19 times out of 20. When just the 350 Alberta respondents are counted, the sampling error is plus or minus 5.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The level of dissatisfaction found in the survey is becoming apparent on streets and highways. Peters says more and more stories of road rage are cropping up in his counselling sessions, to the point where he decided separate group therapy dedicated to road rage was in order. His first pilot session began this weekend.

The idea took shape after he heard the grocery story and learned of a Calgary truck driver who was so fed up with being cut off that he tailed one offending vehicle with a family inside, overtook it and ran if off the highway, leaving it perched precariously at a 45-degree angle over a ditch.

I wonder how much this is translating into feelings about the government of Alberta.

By contrast, Saskatchewan people are happier but they do seem to have fatigue for the party in power. Those poll numbers were released just before their election call.

http://calsun.canoe.ca/News/National/2007/...569869-sun.html

Edited October 15, 2007 by jdobbin

Michael Bluth · October 15, 2007

CP Decima Press on Alberta.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/west_poll_angry_alta

I wonder how much this is translating into feelings about the government of Alberta.

By contrast, Saskatchewan people are happier but they do seem to have fatigue for the party in power. Those poll numbers were released just before their election call.

This post clearly belongs in Provincial Politics.

M.Dancer · October 15, 2007

As someone who'd likely be a 'dipper if Canadian, I'd consider it a leftie party.

As a dipper, would you support the NDP appeasement of Terrorist parties: eg. Hezbollah?

Canuck E Stan · October 15, 2007

what National polls don't tell

Dan Baril

Mr. Harper is in near certain Majority range not because the oft-Con-favourite Ipsos-Reid poll of 40% is accurate. Far from it. Mr. Harper is, today, gliding toward a majority because of vote-splitting.

M.Dancer · October 15, 2007

what National polls don't tell
Dan Baril

As NDP and Green's polling numbers improve, and as Liberal and Bloc numbers deteriorate, the so-called Left is a mish-mash of votes-splitting in which the Conservatives are sure to be the ultimate benefactor.

Amazing....yet some would have you believe the Greens are attracting conservatives to their fringe.......

ScottSA · October 15, 2007

Sooner or later, the Left is going to have to decide which is more important, proving they each can survive and hobble along individually in a Conservative Majority, or the Environment.

Until the left jumps off the bandwagon of a fabricated issue, it's going to be in trouble.

Canadian Blue · October 15, 2007

Which is why the Conservatives are attempting to be portrayed as the champions of the environment...

sharkman · October 15, 2007

Champions of the environment, I don't think they are trying for that at all. They are marketing themselves as the reasonable approach perhaps, not as the 'sky is falling' NDP or the Liberal position of signing Kyoto or whatever agreement the Enrivo Cartel cooks up only to ignore it until they lose power.

As far as the vote splitting idea, I wonder if it's not so much that the NDP and Green parties have made such huge strides in growing up into legitimate options, so much as the Liberal party screwed up so badly that people are leaving in droves. Some of those former Liberal voters are also turning to the Tories as well.

jdobbin · October 16, 2007

Latest poll from Strategic Counsel.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

The Counsel's latest survey was conducted between Oct. 11 and 14 for CTV News and The Globe and Mail.
The poll shows Canada's major parties struggling to gain more support, while continuing to bleed potential votes to the Green Party (percentage-point change from an Aug. 10-12 poll in brackets):

* Conservatives: 34 per cent (+1)

* Liberals: 29 per cent (-4)

* NDP: 15 per cent (-2)

* Green Party: 12 per cent (+4)

* Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent (same)

Weird things in Quebec with the Greens.

The Conservatives have still made gains in Quebec, where the Liberals have shown a drop in support. The Greens, meanwhile, are now ahead of the NDP in the province (percentage-point change from an Aug. 10-12 poll in brackets):
* Bloc Quebecois: 37 per cent (same)

* Conservatives: 26 per cent (+5)

* Liberals: 17 per cent (-7)

* Green Party: 12 per cent (+3)

* NDP: 9 per cent (same)

Ontario remains a strength for the Liberals.

In vote-rich Ontario, the Liberals continue to maintain their lead over the Conservatives, while the NDP and Greens are now tied (percentage-point change from an Aug. 10-12 poll in brackets):
* Liberals: 40 per cent (same)

* Conservatives: 33 per cent (-2)

* NDP: 14 per cent (-3)

* Green Party: 14 per cent (+6)

M.Dancer · October 16, 2007

What you have to understand, in Quebec, the NDP is a fringe party. Whether the Greens or the NDP are the #1 fringe party is all rather irrelevant.

Michael Bluth · October 16, 2007

The Liberals are at 29% in the Strategic Counsel poll? Two straight sub 30 percent polls?

Is there anything Harper can say in the speech tonight that Dion won't find a way to support?

Probably not. He's due for an historic drubbing if there is a fall election.

Shakeyhands · October 16, 2007

Interesting...

http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/polls.php

ipsos always seems to be a little high, regardless the trend is there

Edited October 16, 2007 by Shakeyhands

August1991 · October 16, 2007

Interesting...
http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/polls.php

That is very interesting. The polls since the last election are consistent with 36% for the Tories and 30% for the Liberals. (Keep in mind that one poll in 20 will on average fall outside of the margin of error.) IOW, the same results as in January 2006.

It appears however that the BQ is down and the Greens are up.

gc1765 · October 16, 2007

The Liberals are at 29% in the Strategic Counsel poll? Two straight sub 30 percent polls?

If you believe the polls, if an election were held today we likely wouldn't see much of a change from the 2006 election. Why would the Conservatives want an election if they are going to end up with the same situation we have now?

old_bold&cold · October 16, 2007

Polls are pretty much useless and I know I never really care that much for them. But when the numbers are given, and you really do not see and sense to them, then you knpw the polls are no good. I do not think that anyone would really think that if an election were called today that the CPC would only get the same minority. Most people would easily see that they would get a much higher number of seats, and with Dion and Duceppe at their helms will lose seats big time. That is almost a given, no matter what the numbers in the polls say. If Dion does not think that is so, he can have that election call made before this next few days have gone by. :rolleyes:

The polls where the CPC are in 40% areas are probably closer to the truth then those saying 36%. I would guess that in all honesty the real numbers would be closer to 47% in most areas, but like I said I do not put any faith in polls. If any election was called today it would be a slaughter to Dion and the liberals. That is why I do not think that an election will be called at all, no matter what is in the speech from the throne.

sharkman · October 16, 2007

gc175,

Because a) The Strategic council poll is consistantly friendly to the Liberals as the Ipos Reid is to Tories, so the actual truth is somewhere between the two, meaning gains for the Tories. The Tories now have a well respected election machine that would increase its popularity if an election were called. c) There has been a paradigm shift in Canada which has seen support for the Tories among movers and shakers grow. As well, even in the media, a strong minority cover them with objectivity, and some favourable, which all translate into gains during an election. d) The Liberals are weak and are back stabbing each other, what better time for an election from the Tories perspective.

Edited October 16, 2007 by sharkman

Dithers · October 16, 2007

A campaign is a vicious beast. There is no telling where a campaign would take us.

I personally believe the Tories are in the drier seat as well, but it's far from a sure thing that they would be able to cut out a majority government.

As for the unreliability of polls as illustrated by bold&cold, I would say that the incredibly accurate projections and results released by pollsters over recent years speak for themselves.