Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

Latest poll from Strategic Counsel.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Support for the Conservatives and Liberals remained stalled over the summer with the parties neck-and-neck heading into the fall Parliamentary session, according to a new poll by the Strategic Counsel.

But the survey also found Liberal voters are less committed to their party than Conservative supporters -- an opportunity that the Tories could exploit in an election scenario.

Among Tories -- by a 2:1 margin -- voters are less likely to be thinking about switching their support, the poll found. The Strategic Counsel conducted polling between August 9-12 for CTV and The Globe and Mail.

"Soft Tory voters susceptible to leaving and voting Liberal are firmly entrenched and highly committed at this point ... they like what the government has done," Tim Woolstencroft, managing partner with The Strategic Counsel, told CTV.ca.

In contrast, Liberal voters are evenly split about whether they intend to switch their vote.

The poll found the pool of possible Liberal-to-Conservative switchers is now larger than the Liberal-to-NDP pool. In the 2006 election, the situation was reversed.

When asked who they would vote for if an election were held today, Canadians remain evenly divided on the two front-running parties:

* Liberal candidate: 33 per cent

* Conservative candidate: 33 per cent

* NDP candidate: 17 per cent

* Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent

* Green Party candidate: 8 per cent

Still pretty much tied.

They mention a soft Liberal vote and indicate what the Tories would have to do to win over that vote.

* Reducing wait times for health treatments

* Meeting Canada's Kyoto targets

* Tough on crime

* More money for transit

Hard to show significant progress on the wait times and take credit for it in Ottawa. Some areas of the country are not doing very well at all in this area.

The Conservatives have already said they won't meet Kyoto.

The gun registry is a policy heavily supported in cities.

I have seen one major announcement for transit. I agreed with it. Now, where's the national strategy?

[Michael Bluth]

Here is the title of the just linked to story. Conveniently omitted for some reason.

Tories could capitalize on soft Liberal vote: poll

[M.Dancer]

Here is the title of the just linked to story. Conveniently omitted for some reason.

I don't think he omitted it at all.

They mention a soft Liberal vote and indicate what the Tories would have to do to win over that vote

[jdobbin]

The Globe and Mail details what Harper needs to do win over voters based on the Strategic Counsel poll.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...8/BNStory/Front

He should start by asking himself why they haven't bitten so far. After all, in terms of party standings, the Conservatives are still tied with the Liberals in the low 30s. What's holding them back? The reasons are evident in the data. A large majority of Canadians associate words such as “controlling” and “partisan” with Mr. Harper. They think he's too right-wing. Most believe he's too close to U.S. President George W. Bush. He's not seen as particularly likeable. A majority don't think he cares about people like them. And most Canadians feel his government has accomplished little during its time in office.

Mr. Harper needs to acknowledge that his growth is being held back by what many consider the less attractive aspects of his leadership style. Hand-to-hand combat on the floor of the House of Commons may get his political juices flowing, but it leaves Canadians cold.

Mr. Harper needs to work hard to find ways to connect to more ordinary Canadians. To help dispel his image as “controlling,” he would be well advised to share the limelight more. In Mr. Harper's favour, it's worth noting that while the news media see Mr. Harper as unrelentingly negative, this is not a view shared by these potential voters.

Mr. Harper must also address the persistent concern that he is too close to the Bush administration. The Prime Minister may be planning to wait out the clock. After all, there's a good chance his current mandate will outlast that of President Bush, who has 18 months left in office. That might be a risky game plan; the concerns are less focused on Mr. Bush than on Mr. Harper – or rather his perceived lack of independence from the White House.

What specific government actions would increase Mr. Harper's support? Liberal and Bloc voters both see signing on to Kyoto, increasing transit funding, and the perennial “reducing wait times” as keys to unlocking their votes.

The ongoing combat mission in Afghanistan is also hindering Mr. Harper's growth. Half of Quebec voters say an immediate pullout would make them more inclined to vote Conservative; among Bloc supporters, the percentage is the highest in the country.

Mr. Harper is clearly conscious of the political fallout from Afghanistan. The best evidence of that is his attempt this summer to share responsibility for any post-2009 redeployment with the opposition parties. Uncharacteristically, he said he would require a consensus to continue. The last thing he needs politically, to win over that next seven to 10 per cent, is for the Afghan mission to become emblematic of his mandate.

There are other steps Mr. Harper could take to help win over these voters, and they don't necessarily mean tacking left. For example, tough action on crime has particular vote-getting appeal among the soft-Liberal vote, which skews toward large urban areas.

Lowering personal income taxes is also identified as a factor that could change these voters' minds. Quebeckers, in particular, seem hungrier than other Canadians for tax cuts – two-thirds of them would like the second percentage chopped off the GST, compared with fewer than half of Ontarians.

We'll have to see if Harper is capable of changing his leadership style. The first step would be give his new cabinet the ability to operate without the hand of the PMO guiding it.

Edited August 28, 2007 by jdobbin

[M.Dancer]

It's questions and answers like this that make me want to give Canadians a collective head shake.

"Canadian's impression of HArper would improve if......."

75% say ...no more major Canadian companies were taken over by Canadian firms"

What did they do, go to the local teamster tavern and ask the question there? There are a number of ways to limit the desirability of a canadian company as an M&A target.

1) Reduce your business worth and value to the point where the acquisitor no longer finds the company attractive.

2) Become so dominant in the market that your market valuation is too high for most buyers.

3) Lobby government to enact strict market regulations and controls thereby limiting competion and interest in Canada.

The reason why Canadian companies are target is because they are doing very well and are seen as either undervalued or that the buyers believe with better managementthey can do even better. Ther is nothing short of a planned economy that the governement can do to change that, nor should they.

[daniel]

I don't think he omitted it at all.

Evidently, somebody conveniently skipped reading parts of the article.

[Michael Bluth]

Evidently, somebody conveniently skipped reading parts of the article.

The headline of the article is more than just a 'mention' yet he highlights a laundry list of points that no party could reach.

To be fair, dobbin appears to have read most of the article. He just was very selective in his post and how it represented the article. It's his misrepresentation that is crucial.

This quote from the article looks very good for the Conservatives:

"Soft Tory voters susceptible to leaving and voting Liberal are firmly entrenched and highly committed at this point ... they like what the government has done," Tim Woolstencroft, managing partner with The Strategic Counsel, told CTV.ca.

In contrast, Liberal voters are evenly split about whether they intend to switch their vote.

If the soft Tory vote is firming up while *half* of Liberal voters could switch their votes it really takes some effort to paint the Conservatives in a bad light over that poll.

Edited August 28, 2007 by Michael Bluth

[Argus]

They mention a soft Liberal vote and indicate what the Tories would have to do to win over that vote.

Hard to show significant progress on the wait times and take credit for it in Ottawa. Some areas of the country are not doing very well at all in this area.

Canadians talk about Kyoto but for the most part they don't really pay much attention. If they did they'd know more about it.

Harper needs to be blunt, and simple on crime. When communicating with the masses, who have a very slight attention span, you need to be able to summarize your position in a sentence or two. If I were Harper I would make a major speech, make a big issue about your new "Violent Crime Strategy to get tough on violent criminals". The policy would require anyone caught with an illegal weapon to be immediately removed from the streets without bail, swiftly put through special courts, and be given a harsh, no-parole mandatory minimum sentence.

I was reading the Telegraph the other day on how I think it was Detroit - or maybe Boston, I forget, fought violent street criminals and reduced violent crime by 60%. Their punishments truly were draconian, but worked. The story highlighted a particular case, which the local authorities printed up handbills of actual sentences to actual people and posted them on phone poles and the sides of buildings. Such as "Leon Jones. Crime: Caught with one bullet. Sentence: 19 years, no parole." Now I think that might be a little harsh, but the idea of funding prosecutors, judges and police to enforce a new and very swift, very strong law for those caught in the posession of or for using firearms would easily catch the imagination of the Canadian public. You're caught with a handgun Friday night, and immediately imprisoned without bail. Within a month you're sentenced to five years without parole.

As to health care - again, they need a strong and very visible new strategy. The problem is the provinces would squeal about intervention into their turf. They want endless amounts of money but no interfrence from the feds. I would announced three special commisions, each involving a rep from each province. The first commision would be to see if the provincial health care systems can't get together in order to negotiate a nationwide price reduction on drugs, the second to negotiate a nationwide strategy on care for the elderly in order to establish proper long-term care facilities to take the burden off hospitals. And the third to deal with streamlining procedures in order to cut waiting times.

[jdobbin]

Canadians talk about Kyoto but for the most part they don't really pay much attention. If they did they'd know more about it.

Harper needs to be blunt, and simple on crime. When communicating with the masses, who have a very slight attention span, you need to be able to summarize your position in a sentence or two. If I were Harper I would make a major speech, make a big issue about your new "Violent Crime Strategy to get tough on violent criminals". The policy would require anyone caught with an illegal weapon to be immediately removed from the streets without bail, swiftly put through special courts, and be given a harsh, no-parole mandatory minimum sentence.

I was reading the Telegraph the other day on how I think it was Detroit - or maybe Boston, I forget, fought violent street criminals and reduced violent crime by 60%. Their punishments truly were draconian, but worked. The story highlighted a particular case, which the local authorities printed up handbills of actual sentences to actual people and posted them on phone poles and the sides of buildings. Such as "Leon Jones. Crime: Caught with one bullet. Sentence: 19 years, no parole." Now I think that might be a little harsh, but the idea of funding prosecutors, judges and police to enforce a new and very swift, very strong law for those caught in the posession of or for using firearms would easily catch the imagination of the Canadian public. You're caught with a handgun Friday night, and immediately imprisoned without bail. Within a month you're sentenced to five years without parole.

As to health care - again, they need a strong and very visible new strategy. The problem is the provinces would squeal about intervention into their turf. They want endless amounts of money but no interfrence from the feds. I would announced three special commisions, each involving a rep from each province. The first commision would be to see if the provincial health care systems can't get together in order to negotiate a nationwide price reduction on drugs, the second to negotiate a nationwide strategy on care for the elderly in order to establish proper long-term care facilities to take the burden off hospitals. And the third to deal with streamlining procedures in order to cut waiting times.

None of these issues is easy to deal with or we would have seen then dealt with with firm plans in the last two years.

In Manitoba, where crime is a concern, the PCs ran very scary commercials about women fearing for the their safety. Rather than push support to them, it turned off the electorate and the Tories actually lost more seats than they started with.

It requires a deft touch.

The promise the Conservatives made on wait times is not an easy one to deal with because of the provincial aspect that you mention. And yet, it remains of huge importance to voters.

The Tories keep saying their environment program is superior and editorials such as the Globe and Mail endorse the Tory program. However, the public remains skeptical as witnessed by this latest poll.

The big thing that this recent poll mentions is voter reaction to Harper himself. Is it possible for him to change his leadership style?

[Michael Bluth]

The big thing that this recent poll mentions is voter reaction to Harper himself. Is it possible for him to change his leadership style?

That's a very good point.

Here is the key quote from the Globe article.

Mr. Harper needs to acknowledge that his growth is being held back by what many consider the less attractive aspects of his leadership style. Hand-to-hand combat on the floor of the House of Commons may get his political juices flowing, but it leaves Canadians cold.

Mr. Harper needs to work hard to find ways to connect to more ordinary Canadians. To help dispel his image as “controlling,” he would be well advised to share the limelight more. In Mr. Harper's favour, it's worth noting that while the news media see Mr. Harper as unrelentingly negative, this is not a view shared by these potential voters.

I think he will be seen less and less jousting on the floor of the House.

With Prentice, Bernier, MacKay and Flaherty handling the key files Harper has them in hands he trusts.

The Globe makes two other very good points

About Quebec, the Conservatives are a solid second in Quebec outside Montreal.

Secondly, the Conservative base is very happy with Harper as PM.

Picking up seats in the Rest of Quebec and Ontario appears to hold the key to the Conservatives majority.

[jdobbin]

The Globe and Mail editorial on the Strategic Counsel poll.

http://www.rbcinvest.theglobeandmail.com/s...xComment/3/3/7/

The Strategic Counsel suggests that three perceptions are getting in Mr. Harper's way. The first, that his government has accomplished too little, will be difficult to overcome in a minority Parliament in which the Conservatives are handcuffed. The second, that he is too close to U.S. President George W. Bush, will not be a factor much longer, since Mr. Bush is a lame-duck leader with

little more than a year left on the job.

It is the third perception, however, where Mr. Harper has some work to do. According to The Strategic Counsel, Canadians see the Prime Minister's leadership style as too "partisan" and too "controlling." Of these, "controlling" drew the strongest response; with 70 per cent agreeing that he fits that description, it is more associated with him than any other characteristic. "Partisan" did not come far behind, ranking just behind "decisive" as the third most popular descriptor.

This character analysis may seem trivial if Canadians are generally pleased with the government's direction. But politics, especially at the federal level, is about personality. And while Mr. Harper is apt to brush off concerns about his demeanour and management style as media-driven, Canadians have evidently clued in to them.

The Globe basically says Harper has to lighten up. Unfortunately, his instinct to go for the jugular is what people often see with him.

[Michael Bluth]

The Globe basically says Harper has to lighten up. Unfortunately, his instinct to go for the jugular is what people often see with him.

Yup, you already said that. Any comments on the actions Harper likely will take to 'lighten up'?

[jdobbin]

Angus Reid poll on Canadian and other countries reaction on Afghanistan.

http://www.edmontonsun.com/News/Canada/200...451584-sun.html

OTTAWA -- Canadians and Europeans think the Afghanistan mission is a failure, a new poll reveals, as a United Nations report shows opium crops reaching a record high in the key battleground for the "war on terror."

An Angus-Reid online survey of 5,075 people in five countries found 49% of Canadians see the military operation as futile, compared with 63% in Britain and France, 66% in Italy and 69% in Germany.

Only 22% of Canadians deem the NATO mission as a success, while another 29% aren't sure.

Mario Canseco, director of global studies for Angus Reid Strategies, said the numbers reflect a lack of understanding about the mission that has led to a sharp focus on deaths of soldiers.

"It shows the federal government has not done a good job in making Canadians aware of the role of the armed forces in Afghanistan," he said. "Stephen Harper has had a very difficult time communicating with the public, and this is an issue where not speaking with the media is hurting public views."

The poll comes on the heels of a report from the United Nations that shows opium cultivation expanded by 17% in 2007 in Afghanistan. Growth is primarily in the southern area, where Taliban insurgents control large swaths of land and use profits from the illicit opium trade for weapons and militia payments.

Canseco said opium growth, corruption and a weak Afghan government are shaping views of Canada's impact on the country.

Another pollster mentioning how Harper's communication problems has affected how Canadians feel about the Afghan mission.

[geoffrey]

The reason why Canadian companies are target is because they are doing very well and are seen as either undervalued or that the buyers believe with better managementthey can do even better. Ther is nothing short of a planned economy that the governement can do to change that, nor should they.

Not to mention that each takeover is previously unavailable wealth directly in the hands of Canadians to fund future growth projects. The "hollowing out" complaints are amongst the most irrational of Canadians. I hope 75% don't actually believe that, it would be a sad testament to our critical thinking skills.

[noahbody]

Angus Reid poll on Canadian and other countries reaction on Afghanistan.

http://www.edmontonsun.com/News/Canada/200...451584-sun.html

Another pollster mentioning how Harper's communication problems has affected how Canadians feel about the Afghan mission.

Actually, according to the results, Harper has done better than all other countries polled.

[jdobbin]

Actually, according to the results, Harper has done better than all other countries polled.

Which means 49% are opposed which is why I have previously indicated the country is split on the issue.

Edited August 29, 2007 by jdobbin

[noahbody]

Which means 51% are opposed which is why I have previously indicated the country is split on the issue.

It would suggest 49% don't believe progress has been made. Do you know what futile means?

[jdobbin]

It would suggest 49% don't believe progress has been made. Do you know what futile means?

I corrected my previous post to 49% believing the mission is futile and are in opposition. It still means a split country.

Futile is to expect our allies will be there to fill in for us in 2009 or 2012.

I don't think this statistic gives a ringing endorsement to the mission:

Only 22% of Canadians deem the NATO mission as a success, while another 29% aren't sure.

One of the reason cited by Canadians in not supporting the mission beyond 2009 is lack of support from our allies.

Edited August 29, 2007 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

PQ back on top.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...29?hub=Politics

Fuelled by favourable results in the polls and an upcoming byelection for their new party leader, the Parti Quebecois began a two-day caucus on a strong note.

Members were are smiles as they arrived on Wednesday, with a La Presse-CROP poll suggesting the PQ, the Bloc Quebecois, the sovereignty movement and the popularity of new PQ leader Pauline Marois are all on the rise.

The poll signalled an apparent shift in the intentions of Quebec voters, with 33 per cent of respondents saying they would vote for the PQ, 29 per cent for the Action democratique du Quebec and 27 per cent for the Liberals, who currently lead in a minority government.

Don't know if this is good for anyone. However, it must be giving both Charest and Harper heartburn.

[Michael Bluth]

Don't know if this is good for anyone. However, it must be giving both Charest and Harper heartburn.

Finally an iota of truth in one of your posts.

Why would it give Harper more 'heartburn' than Dion?

Seems to me that outside Montreal the Conservatives have become the federalist option in Quebec. From the polls you have posted that is. Too bad you don't actually take the time to read what you link to.

[jdobbin]

Overlooked in the Strategic Counsel poll is the fact that the Liberals are now solidly in second place in Quebec.

http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news...dd-8db887c925a7

Overall, the poll had the Bloc Québécois at 37 per cent in Quebec, the Liberals at 24 per cent, the Conservatives at 21 per cent, with the NDP and Greens on the edge of double digits at nine per cent.

For a lot of last year, the Liberals were running third. This is now one a few polls that have put the Liberals in second.

The Strategic Counsel poll was also taken before the latest Quebec casualties which the pollster says could affect more growth in Conservative growth outside of Montreal.

Edited August 30, 2007 by jdobbin

[M.Dancer]

Overlooked in the Strategic Counsel poll is the fact that the Liberals are now solidly in second place in Quebec.

http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news...dd-8db887c925a7

For a lot of last year, the Liberals were running third. This is now one a few polls that have put the Liberals in second.

The Strategic Counsel poll was also taken before the latest Quebec casualties which the pollster says could affect more growth in Conservative growth outside of Montreal.

It is still a statistical tie. The margin of error for Quebec is 6.3%

Not withstanding.....

Despite this gain for the Liberals, Conservatives remain highly competitive outside Montreal (29%), and are poised to make further gains outside of this city (as discussed below). The BQ continues

to lead (39%) outside Montreal.

The single biggest change on right/wrong track has occurred in Quebec. At the

start of the last election, only 34% thought that country was on the right track;

now, 59% think this is true.

Opposition voters are much more likely to think that the country is on the “wrong”

track. However a majority (57%) of the Liberal and Bloc supporters still believe

that the country is the “right” track. NDP voters are evenly split on this question.

and.....

ConservativesnGains in Quebec Outside Montreal

Our latest survey indicates that the Conservatives are in a potential position to

make more gains in Quebec outside Montreal, but even here they face some

challenges.

Quebec voters who live outside Montreal generally have a favourable view of the

Harper government:

– There is some measure of trust that Harper will do the right thing for the country;

– There is a consensus that Harper is a friend of Quebec;

– A strong view exists that the Conservative government has kept its election promises;

– They see Harper’s style of leadership as being characterized by decisiveness, working

as a team player, and having a vision. They reject the notion that his leadership style is

negative;

and finally, the liberals recently slipped from 25% to 24% while the Tories climbed from 16 to 21%....

[jdobbin]

It is still a statistical tie. The margin of error for Quebec is 6.3%

Not withstanding.....

and.....

and finally, the liberals recently slipped from 25% to 24% while the Tories climbed from 16 to 21%....

I had highlighted those points in the first post on the poll.

Still, the Liberals had been running a poor third in many polls all last year in Quebec. To be in a statistical tie is actually an improvement.

The CROP poll worries me though because I think the PQ and with it, the BQ, benefit from Quebec opposition to the war. The Strategic Counsel poll was taken before the latest casualties.

[M.Dancer]

I had highlighted those points in the first post on the poll.

I'm sure you did, but that one serious shortcoming of always putting every poll in the same thread. In my browser there are 31 pages of posts. I think it would be appropriate if we could at least start new threads on new polls.

[jdobbin]

I'm sure you did, but that one serious shortcoming of always putting every poll in the same thread. In my browser there are 31 pages of posts. I think it would be appropriate if we could at least start new threads on new polls.

I had been told to place polls in one thread by a few people and have done so ever since. I thought if I didn't do it, they would be moved here anyway. I'm not sure what the policy is in regards to that to be honest.