NATO to police Lebanese/Israeli Border?

[August1991]

Westerners don't have a great reputation in the Middle East. The French and Americans had to pull out of Lebanon after massive suicide bombs. The mere mention of sending Soviet troops into Egypt in 1973 (albeit as part of a joint US peacekeeping force) almost started World War III. And then there was the 1956 Suez Crisis in which England and France made fools of themselves.

After 1982, the Israelis seemed to manage best on their own, and using the vicious proxy South Lebanon Army in the East. Alot of Israel's current problems stem from the decision to pull out of Lebanon in 2000.

The UN seems to have policed well the border on the Golan Heights but geography, not the UN explains that success. Elsewhere, the UN has been an utter disaster.

So, what to make of this proposal?

The United States and Israel said on Sunday that they were ready to support an international force led by NATO in south Lebanon to ease tensions.

No US troops are likely to be in the force, which according to a US media report could be between 10,000 and 20,000 strong and led by a contingent from France or Turkey.

There could be delicate questions, however, over whether the force's mission is to disarm Hezbollah or to support the Lebanese army's efforts to take control in the south of the country.

Link

NEW YORK — The Bush administration is attempting to fashion a NATO-led force to eventually enter southern Lebanon in a move that would further extend the alliance's mandate from European defence to a deeper engagement in the global struggle against Islamic militants.

In doing so, Washington is signalling that it has little confidence a UN-led force would be able to intervene effectively in southern Lebanon.

G & M

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Once a bulwark to the Soviet Union, NATO seems an anachronism. But not really. NATO has basically morphed into the military arm of the World Democracy Club. If the Club had some kind of decision-making constitution, then it might be a proper club and function properly.

Bush Snr. put together a weird NATO+ coalition to deal with Gulf I. Clinton got NATO to deal with Serbia and Kosovo. Bush Jnr got NATO for Afghanistan but pointedly failed to get NATO support for Iraq.

Well, the world's current security architecture is a work in progress.

When Napoleon was kicked out of Europe, there was the Congress of Vienna. When Hitler was defeated, there were a whole series of meetings to face the Cold War. With the defeat of the Soviets, the western powers really haven't put things properly in place. But NATO seems a good start. It's useful that the good guys all use M-16s and can share spare parts.

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If Israel just wants a buffer zone, then NATO'll do. But if Israel really wants to crush and eliminate Hizballah, then Israel may just listen politely but hedge any decision.

[Black Dog]

If Israel just wants a buffer zone, then NATO'll do. But if Israel really wants to crush and eliminate Hizballah, then Israel may just listen politely but hedge any decision.

It appears Israel is not considering that as a possibility.

Israel Will Accept a Disarmed Hezbollah

The United States, Israel, the United Nations and the European Union have reluctantly concluded that despite punishing military attacks, Hezbollah is likely to survive as a political player in Lebanon, and Israel now says it is willing to accept the organization if it sheds its military wing and abandons extremism, according to several key officials.

"To the extent that it remains a political group, it will be acceptable to Israel," Israeli Ambassador Daniel Ayalon said yesterday in the strongest sign to date that the Israelis are rethinking the scope and ultimate goals of the campaign. "A political group means a party that is engaged in the political system in Lebanon, but without terrorism capabilities and fighting capabilities. That will be acceptable to Israel."

[August1991]

This is the problem:

Initial U.S., Israeli and U.N. assessments have concluded that Hezbollah's popularity among Lebanese Shiites is likely to remain significant -- and no one but the Shiites will be able to challenge its status, according to U.S. and U.N. officials.

But this is also true:

Because Syria is also the physical conduit for all Iranian arms and personnel bound for Lebanon, the regime of President Bashar al-Assad could be pivotal to helping end the current hostilities and ensuring that Hezbollah's options are limited afterward.

If it isn't Hizballah, it would be some other group. The Shia of Lebanon need representation and their own grievances and frustrations in Lebanese politics have been exploited by Iran, with Syrian connivance. Maybe a defanged Hizballah might work.

Who said it? "What they need to do is get Syria to get Hezbollah to stop doing this shit and it’s all over."

[Rue]

August you are dead on with your comments and one only need to look at the history of UN peace-keeping units where-ever they go including the Middle East.

I have travelled through the disputed areas of the Golan, Southern Lebanon, and I would tell you the idea of placing a NATO force in a buffer zone will simply make them a huge target for terrorists to attack. The idea that NATO troops could then chase these terrorists in hot pursuit without killing or hurting civilians would be no more realistic then is what is happening now with Israel. So are we prepared for NATO forces to be bombed and attacked like the Canadians in Afghanistan and British and Americans in Iraq, or experience similiar problems to what the British Army went through in Nortehrn Ireland? That is what happens when you try use conventional military armies as policemen. Its a recipe for a guerilla war of attrition and paralyzed soldiers feeling impotent and feel like they are fighting shadows.

I think the most realistic solution is to rebuild the Lebanese government free of influence from Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, Israel and who-ever else, and to place the Lebanese army in Southern Lebanon and to disarm any or all other militias and if anything, a NATO force should be sent in only to assist the Lebanese government and Lebanese army and I also think it would be a good idea if both Jordan and Israel could form a security alliance with Lebanon to help each other keep the area disarmed. That too is wishful thinking.

[Argus]

August you are dead on with your comments and one only need to look at the history of UN peace-keeping units where-ever they go including the Middle East.

I have travelled through the disputed areas of the Golan, Southern Lebanon, and I would tell you the idea of placing a NATO force in a buffer zone will simply make them a huge target for terrorists to attack. The idea that NATO troops could then chase these terrorists in hot pursuit without killing or hurting civilians would be no more realistic then is what is happening now with Israel. So are we prepared for NATO forces to be bombed and attacked like the Canadians in Afghanistan and British and Americans in Iraq, or experience similiar problems to what the British Army went through in Nortehrn Ireland?

A peacekeeping force would really only work with widespread local support, that is, from israel, from the Lebanese goverrnment, and from at least the majority of people in south lebanon. If it were made up of Turks and French, well, at least the Israelis will trust the Turks, and the Arabs should trust the French. Dunno, but I don't see success with other western forces there as most would be seen as either too partisan or too weak. I'm not even sure I'd trust the French, frankly, and I highly doubt the Israelis would.

[Charles Anthony]

Bush is proposing NATO goes into Lebanon to do exactly what is failing in Iraq and in Afghanistan. Give me a break.

The only thing that NATO can do is take one side and be an active participant in the war. Everything else will either be hypocrisy or a failure.

[Biblio Bibuli]

With the defeat of the Soviets ....

Yeah, thanks to Vladimir Putin we managed to defeat them. Big time!

[August1991]

The idea that NATO troops could then chase these terrorists in hot pursuit without killing or hurting civilians would be no more realistic then is what is happening now with Israel. So are we prepared for NATO forces to be bombed and attacked like the Canadians in Afghanistan and British and Americans in Iraq, or experience similiar problems to what the British Army went through in Nortehrn Ireland?

I think a NATO force in south Lebanon now would be a more robust version of what a UN peacekeeping force (before the UN went third world) used to be. (Nowadays, UN peacekeeping is a drunk security guard in a late-night liquor store. When will the NDP/CBC ever wake up to what the UN has become?)

Peacekeeping works best when the two sides just want a buffer because they don't want war-war and they can't do jaw-jaw. It's like an exhausted divorcing couple who need an intermediary.

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It appears that this NATO proposal might have legs. The radical Shia Hizballah rejects it (look at his choice of word - carried deliberately through the translation) and the political Shia (Nabih Berri) offers a counter proposal:

A Hezbollah cabinet member denounced Ms Rice's proposals, saying she came to force Lebanese into "submission" or else face more fighting.

The labour minister, Tarrad Hamadeh, claimed: "What Rice carried was merely conditions to cover a new round of fighting and a new round of war."

An official close to Mr Berri said his talks with Ms Rice had failed to reach an agreement because Ms Rice "insisted on one full package to end the fighting".

The package included a ceasefire, simultaneous with the deployment of the Lebanese army and an international force in south Lebanon and the removal of Hezbollah weapons from a buffer zone extending 25 miles from the Israeli border - roughly the line of the Litani River - said the official.

Mr Berri rejected the package, proposing instead a two-phased plan. First would come a ceasefire and negotiations for a prisoner swap. Then an inter-Lebanese dialogue would work out a solution to the situation in south Lebanon, said the official.

Link

The Israelis probably want a pull back to the Litani because that means (for the moment) placing Israel outside of range of current rocket technology. Near Marjayoun and the East, it requires a robust presence. The Israelis would want guarantees.

I think the most realistic solution is to rebuild the Lebanese government free of influence from Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, Israel and who-ever else, and to place the Lebanese army in Southern Lebanon and to disarm any or all other militias...

Wishful thinking is right.

Ultimately though, a NATO force would have to support a Lebanese army. (What? A Lebanese army of Greek Orthodox soldiers? Who else could patrol in the south Bekaa?)

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With the defeat of the Soviets ....

Yeah, thanks to Vladimir Putin we managed to defeat them. Big time!

Diiferent topic, different thread. But yes, the Good Guys defeated the Soviets and Putin knows that. But Putin knows also that Russia was not defeated.

[jdobbin]

I can't help think that NATO might face what the French and Americans did in 1982. Robust or not. Suicide bombers are relentless.

[August1991]

If it were made up of Turks and French, well, at least the Israelis will trust the Turks, and the Arabs should trust the French.

On the contrary, there is good historical reasons to believe both countries would manage it.

Most important: They need the total political support of all NATO members. Western rich democracies have to make it plain that this is what they want, and what they have the force to ensure will happen.

[theloniusfleabag]

Dear August1991,

Most important: They need the total political support of all NATO members. Western rich democracies have to make it plain that this is what they want, and what they have the force to ensure will happen.

You must have missed a word here, all I can decifer is 'syntax error'. However, what you seem to be implying is; the status quo, (ie: the same mistaken approach that not only will not solve the problem, but has historically exacerbated it) more rigorously applied.

A short term solution to a long term problem. I believe it is called 'diplomacy'.

[August1991]

Dear Thelonious Monk,

"Most important: They need the total political support of all NATO members. Western rich democracies have to make it plain that this is what they want, and that they have the force to ensure it will happen." [sorry. Type too fas.]

However, what you seem to be implying is; the status quo, (ie: the same mistaken approach that not only will not solve the problem, but has historically exacerbated it) more rigorously applied.

A short term solution to a long term problem. I believe it is called 'diplomacy'.

People are killing each other. If they stop, maybe they'll have time to find another solution. And of course, a long term solution is best of all.

IMV, the Left is foolishly naive about war and the Right's view of war.

[theloniusfleabag]

Dear August1991,

Dear Thelonious Monk,

Did you know his middle name was 'Sphere'? Did you also know he was crazy? Sometimes I wonder if I am crazy...I always look at the 'whole ball of wax', I look to the end, and believe that if you find the 'end', only then does the path to it become clear...and that path will never contain 'means' that the end would not include.

[GostHacked]

Can we send in a NATO or UN team to the Gaza Strip and the West Bank?? Make sure those illegal settlements are removed?

...but anyways regarldess of my feelings toward Israel and it's creators. A UN team might work. You can bet that the US will contribute more than enough troops for THAT cause. It has to be balanced, but it wont happen. The bickering to get set up with a team and who will be going will be in debate for some time. Tied up in the UN meetings debate debate debate. While that happens Lebanon will continue to get pounded. Israel said they will not stop till they are destroyed. Heard this rhetoric before. But anyways, expect long delays before a team gets sent. Not much to really do after the cities are in rubble.

Israel will not be able to kill Hezbollah. Here is the tactic. Hezbollah moves into a city, fires a couple rockets. Get's the FO, and then the civilians are there to take the hit. They are always on the move. So by the time the Israeli war planes come in to strike, the militants are long gone. Israel can show more restraint if they know this is the case. Ok Hezbollah is sooo cowardly in there tactitcs, sure some of you guys are gonna complain about them every chance you get. But I would use the same tactics. Since you don't care where you drop your bombs, not like I should care where I fire from. But that, I would do within your border!

If it stops the carnage on both sides, even a little bit, then I am all for it.

[Charles Anthony]

People are killing each other. If they stop, maybe they'll have time to find another solution. And of course, a long term solution is best of all.

Are they likely to stop in our lifetime? The two sides are claiming the same land.

Has anybody considered the possibility that non-stop war without diplomacy between these two sides as a solution (albeit a miserable one indeed)?

Only a minority on either side discusses living together in peace.

We are looking for a cure whent there might not be a cure when maybe we should just accept treatment. Maybe we should resign ourselves to ongoing war until more people discuss living in peace.

[jdobbin]

U.S. proposes 30,000 troops to Lebanon.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/25/...macy/index.html

Yikes! Reagan's old staff should contact Bush now. Don't do it!

Hezzbollah is probably dancing in the streets over that idea.

[Machinations]

With the defeat of the Soviets ....

Yeah, thanks to Vladimir Putin we managed to defeat them. Big time!

I'm curious about your signature:

The long era when the UN has been a substitute for Third World primal scream therapy should be ended. - Conrad Black

Are you one of the wealthy elite who Conrad is speaking for? Otherwise I am at a loss as to why you would support such a criminal - a man who would consider you, and your opinions less important than a gnat.

Or is it just because you don't like the UN you think Conrad Black has any authority when speaking on any subject? At least find someone who has'nt been indicted, yet.

[jdobbin]

One of the U.N. observers killed was reported to be a Canadian.

[August1991]

From CNN link above:

President Bush has said that the United States wants to change the equation on the ground fundamentally. Bush has said that moving to an immediate cease-fire would leave the components of the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict in place.

IOW, they have to keep fighting until Hizballah realizes that it has lost.

The plan initially would involve putting an international force of up to 10,000 Turkish and Egyptian troops under a NATO or U.N. commander into southern Lebanon following a cease-fire.

Egyptian troops? IMHO, that's a bad idea. It should be entirely NATO, with air support/reconnaissance. The whole deal.

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In 1958, the Christian Lebanese president was under siege and appealed to Eisenhower for support. Eisenhower turned to the US military and asked how many troops it would take to stabilize Lebanon. The US Chiefs of Staff said about 1,500. So Eisenhower said, "In that case, send 15,000" and that's what the Americans did. They stayed for about four months.

30,000 troops seems right.

[August1991]

This is very interesting:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper said he does not favour sending Canadian troops to southern Lebanon as part of a multinational peacekeeping force, adding that countries in the area should be responsible for resolving the conflict.

Harper said it would not be Canada's "first choice to have Canadian or foreign troops" sent to enforce peace between Israel and Hezbollah.

....

"I think what is important if we are going to resolve this problem in the long term is that we get governments in the region that are dedicated to peace and stability for all sides, and are prepared to deal with these kinds of extremist and terrorist security threats.

Harper said that the solution lies "in these sovereign states themselves."

CBC

So, Harper is not only against sending Canadian troops to Lebanon, he's against sending NATO troops there.

Maybe he's right. A long term solution is after all their affair. But after hearing the neighbours scream and yell for several nights, eventually you call the police.